New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos Week 5 Preview

October 11th, 2009 5:40 am
by Pro Set

Dallas gifted a win last week to Denver. Early on, the Cowboys dominated up front. Until the crazy decision to have QB Tony Romo take a seven step drop, the Cowboys were completely in control. Denver will start better against New England. QB Kyle Orton did not convinve me. The TD pass to WR Brandon Marshall should have been easily deflected, but CB Terence Newman leapt with two hands as if to catch. As for the Dallas final drive, Denver gave up yards like a high school team and then simply blitzed nine men at the goal line. That won’t survive 16 games. Denver will be destroyed this week if New England plays cleanly.

New England still needs to run the ball more. Denver is weak inside. In the win over the Ravens, the Patriots should have buried the Ravens earlier. It’s hard to concede a sack / FR TD on first down when running the ball. The attention over the roughing the passer penalties has lessened the focus on the lack of power running from Foxboro. With WR Randy Moss and WR Wes Welker healthier, QB Tom Brady should demolish the Donkeys. On the other side, the interior NE defense has improved since the loss to the Jets. There is a still a question over whether NE can rush the passer adequately without blitzing. This will be tested if the Patriots trail or if the game is close.

Posted in Analysis, Denver Broncos, Game, NFL, New England Patriots | No Comments »

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots – Week 4 Preview

October 4th, 2009 11:46 am
by Big Dog

In a week when it’s arguable that most games will have relatively foregone conclusions, the Baltimore and New England face-off is an opportunity for some interesting and potentially surprising gameplay.

New England Patriots

As long as Tom Brady can stay upright and throw a football, the Patriots are almost certainly going to be favourites heading into pretty much any game. But as the New York Jets and Rex Ryan proved a couple of weeks ago, the Patriots are very beatable. Especially if you can put Brady under pressure. This has been the key weakness in the Patriots offense for several years now and they’ve really only been getting away with it because of their enduring ability to come through with strong offense when they need it most. If the Patriots O-Line can buy Brady enough time to let his receivers get deep then you have expect that they will be able to outperform the Ravens secondary.

Baltimore Ravens

Given that Coach Ryan made his name at Baltimore, you can expect the Ravens to have learned a lot from what they saw the Jets do. That said, you can also bet that the Patriots learned a hell of a lot from that game as well. In fact, given the identical ahem, similar nature of the Jets and Ravens defense this season, it’s very possible that New York’s success will be to Baltimore’s disadvantage. If the Ravens can manage to get to Brady a few times, rush him and disrupt his rhythm, then the game will be theirs for the taking. If in the attempt they create space for Brady to throw into, then it will be their undoing.

Prediction

The smart money has to be with the Patriots at home against a defense they’ve already seen this season. But that’s why I don’t look after our Best Bets page, I’m not known for sticking with the smart money. I’m calling it for the Ravens 17 – 13.

Posted in Analysis, Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Game, NFL, NFL Betting, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, NFL schedule, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Tom Brady | No Comments »

NFL 2009: the end of 16 games?

June 29th, 2009 12:01 pm
by Pro Set

NFL Season 2009 is now less than 100 days away. This is the eighth season of the eight division format, adopted with the commencement of the expansion Houston Texans. As fair as this schedule format is (teams within the division have 14 of 16 common games) the NFL may well succumb to the temptation to expand the regular season to 18 games.

Roger Goodell does nothing for his credibility by claiming that an expanded regular season is being proposed in the best interests of fans. It is a simple revenue raising exercise.

Assuming an 18 game regular season, the NFL has one chance to save face: by having two intra conference divisional crossovers. This would mean 16 common opponents and 100% scheduling parity within a division. The NFL has repeatedly stated that precedence must be retained to the importance of winning a division. The only detriment would be the fact that divisional winners would no longer meet automatically in the following regular season, no doubt to the chagrin of the networks.

A hypothetical 18 game schedule (for an NFC East team) under this proposal could proceed as follows:

  • Six divisional games
  • Four intra conference games v NFC North
  • Four intra conference games v NFC South
  • Four inter conference games v AFC East

The intra conference schedule would complete a rotation every three seasons and the inter conference would complete a rotation every four seasons. It’s not as if NFL Game Analysis has not been right before: check out this 2007 vent on the force out rule. The force out rule was abolished in time for last season.

Posted in Houston Texans, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL on television, NFL schedule | No Comments »

50th Anniversary Season for the AFL

June 28th, 2009 10:31 pm
by Big Dog

So the 2009 NFL season also happens to be the 50th Anniversary Season for the original eight teams of the AFL. Of course this will be celebrated in many ways throughout the coming months but the primary format will be a series of matchups being touted by the NFL as “Legacy Games“.

These Legacy Games will involve the original eight teams (or their modern variations) wearing special historic uniforms and will of course provide the opportunity for a great deal more NFL merchandise to be sold. For the die-hard fan of any one of these franchises it will be all but impossible to not buy a commemorative jersey, cap, tshirt, sweatshirt, jacket, cup, cup-holder, giant foam finger and so forth.

Not to appear overly cynical, I think it’s great that the game’s alive and well today, here 50 years later and still going strong, but it does seem to me that the value of any game – “Legacy” or otherwise – can really only be measured in terms of its contribution to the season as a whole.

Why on earth is it more important that the Tennessee Titans Houston Oilers play the New York Jets Titans of New York on September 27 than that Cleveland and Baltimore go head-to-head on the same day?

It’s important to celebrate the evolving history of the game we love, but let’s all remember to keep it in context. And that context is competition. Win your division, win your conference, win the title… but win. It doesn’t matter if you’re facing a legacy team or the high school from the next town over. The game is the game, and it only rewards winners.

So feel free to buy a commemmorative tshirt, jersey, hat, whatever. Just don’t expect it to make one bit of difference to how well your team plays.

Posted in Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Game, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL schedule, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans | No Comments »