Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens Week 11 Preview

November 22nd, 2009 7:10 am
by Big Dog

Indianapolis have really made an impact in the league this year with their thus-far undefeated run into the season. Admittedly in the last few weeks they have had huge helpings of luck that let them get across the line, but I’m sure that many a fan is willing to argue that a truly great team makes their own luck.

The Ravens still have a legendary defensive unit and have been working to shore up their on-field dominance. At the same time, investment is going into the offensive side of the game and if Baltimore can take advantage of the Colts’ poor run defense then they’re in with a shot.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have caused a bit of a stir having managed to make it this far through the season without a loss. The truth is that while their winning record is very impressive, this isn’t a team of the same calibre as the New England Patriots when they had their unbeaten regular season. On that basis alone, the odds should be stacked against the Colts – but football likes teams and players that can defy the odds.

Which is why I’m basing my view of this game on a few other factors, such as the Colts’ performance in their last few games. Let’s face it, Indianapolis has been lucky, really lucky to make it this far without losing. Last week’s comeback against the Patriots wasn’t a story of pure grit and determination – it was the story of Belichick making a poor judgement call (easy to say in hindsight) and paying for it. In any case, if that were an isolated incident I’d be willing to ignore it, but the Colts have looked shaky recently and they’re due.

If they want to succeed then they need to give Ray Lewis a concussion, shut down the Ravens’ running game and continue their unprecedented lucky streak. In other words, it’s a tall order by anyone’s standards.

Baltimore Ravens

Ok – the Ravens aren’t what they once were, but they’re still a powerful defensive team with a system that works and a tactical military defensive genius in Ray Lewis. Basically they could still make your offense suffer if their entire defense were on crutches. Manning and the Colts have been undeniably good this season but all the Ravens have to do is disrupt them and disruption is something the Ravens do instinctively.

Offensively all the Ravens need to do is run the ball. The Colts still haven’t got to the part of “Football for Dummies” where it tells you that you’re allowed to tackle a running back for a loss, and they’ve proven it with yet another tragic season of running yards allowed.

Prediction

It won’t be pretty and it won’t be particularly easy, but the Ravens will bring the Colts’ streak to an end with solid defense and simple running. Ravens win 27 – 21

Posted in Analysis, Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Game, Indianapolis Colts, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, New England Patriots, Peyton Manning, Ray Lewis | No Comments »

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos Week 5 Preview

October 11th, 2009 5:40 am
by Pro Set

Dallas gifted a win last week to Denver. Early on, the Cowboys dominated up front. Until the crazy decision to have QB Tony Romo take a seven step drop, the Cowboys were completely in control. Denver will start better against New England. QB Kyle Orton did not convinve me. The TD pass to WR Brandon Marshall should have been easily deflected, but CB Terence Newman leapt with two hands as if to catch. As for the Dallas final drive, Denver gave up yards like a high school team and then simply blitzed nine men at the goal line. That won’t survive 16 games. Denver will be destroyed this week if New England plays cleanly.

New England still needs to run the ball more. Denver is weak inside. In the win over the Ravens, the Patriots should have buried the Ravens earlier. It’s hard to concede a sack / FR TD on first down when running the ball. The attention over the roughing the passer penalties has lessened the focus on the lack of power running from Foxboro. With WR Randy Moss and WR Wes Welker healthier, QB Tom Brady should demolish the Donkeys. On the other side, the interior NE defense has improved since the loss to the Jets. There is a still a question over whether NE can rush the passer adequately without blitzing. This will be tested if the Patriots trail or if the game is close.

Posted in Analysis, Denver Broncos, Game, NFL, New England Patriots | No Comments »

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots – Week 4 Preview

October 4th, 2009 11:46 am
by Big Dog

In a week when it’s arguable that most games will have relatively foregone conclusions, the Baltimore and New England face-off is an opportunity for some interesting and potentially surprising gameplay.

New England Patriots

As long as Tom Brady can stay upright and throw a football, the Patriots are almost certainly going to be favourites heading into pretty much any game. But as the New York Jets and Rex Ryan proved a couple of weeks ago, the Patriots are very beatable. Especially if you can put Brady under pressure. This has been the key weakness in the Patriots offense for several years now and they’ve really only been getting away with it because of their enduring ability to come through with strong offense when they need it most. If the Patriots O-Line can buy Brady enough time to let his receivers get deep then you have expect that they will be able to outperform the Ravens secondary.

Baltimore Ravens

Given that Coach Ryan made his name at Baltimore, you can expect the Ravens to have learned a lot from what they saw the Jets do. That said, you can also bet that the Patriots learned a hell of a lot from that game as well. In fact, given the identical ahem, similar nature of the Jets and Ravens defense this season, it’s very possible that New York’s success will be to Baltimore’s disadvantage. If the Ravens can manage to get to Brady a few times, rush him and disrupt his rhythm, then the game will be theirs for the taking. If in the attempt they create space for Brady to throw into, then it will be their undoing.

Prediction

The smart money has to be with the Patriots at home against a defense they’ve already seen this season. But that’s why I don’t look after our Best Bets page, I’m not known for sticking with the smart money. I’m calling it for the Ravens 17 – 13.

Posted in Analysis, Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Game, NFL, NFL Betting, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, NFL schedule, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Tom Brady | No Comments »

New England Patriots @ New York Jets Preview

September 19th, 2009 1:03 pm
by Big Dog

Well it’s not really a surprise to anybody that the Patriots are coming off a win against Buffalo. What IS surprising, is how they very nearly didn’t. You can make all the excuses you like, but the simple truth is that the Patriots don’t have it together yet. Brady was very pressured by the Bills‘ pass rush, especially in the first half, and the characteristic Patriots cohesion just wasn’t on display.

At the same time the New York Jets just monstered Houston with the Texans’ only score the result of a combined INT and Fumble Recovery. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez is certainly stirring up the enthusiastic support of Jets fans and with good reason. So far he seems to be stepping up to playing at the elite level with a great deal of poise, maturity and mental presence – all of which he’ll need if he wants to win on Sunday.

New England Patriots

Brady and the Patriots offense put up good numbers last week, with 378 passing yards and 12 receptions each for Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Their running game was seriously hampered and had its lowest output in a while. This formula can’t hold up against the newly revitalised Baltimore Jets defense. Quite simply, the Patriots need to get more yardage on the ground and contain the brutal defensive onslaught the Jets unleashed on the Texans last week. If they can do that, then the Patriots will get the job done.

New York Jets

New head coach Rex Ryan is off to a strong start and has established a foundation for his right to the position on the basis of his defense’s miserly allowance of only 183 total yards against Houston. If his defense can bring that same intensity and success to this Sunday’s game, then they’re in with a chance. The New York Giants showed the way to beat the Patriots in Superbowl XLII, hit Brady hard and often (and pull off a miracle or two). Unsettle the passing game and disrupt the run. Make no mistake, Mark Sanchez is a very good rookie quarterback, but if the Jets are going to beat the Patriots, it will be the defense that wins the game.

Prediction

Any rational football fan has to take the Patriots here. Expect them to bring a journeyman, work-a-day approach to the game, looking to systematically pick the Jets apart. A cold, clinical and methodical approach.

But I’m not a rational fan when it comes to the Patriots. I can respect the team and their success (and I do), but I don’t like their flavour of kool-aid, so I’m not buying it. This might be a case of wishful thinking, but I’m going with the hubris of youth in Sanchez, the point to prove in Rex Ryan and the renewed passion of Jets fans, and most of all – the ferocity of their defense.

New York Jets 31 – 28

Posted in Analysis, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Game, Houston Texans, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, NFL schedule, NY Giants, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Randy Moss, Superbowl, Superbowl XLII, Tom Brady, Wes Welker | No Comments »

Week 1 Game Results

September 17th, 2009 8:40 pm
by Big Dog

The first week is all played out and I’m proud to be able to claim the crown for the moment. I called one more game correctly than ProSet and am going to brag about it while I can. I know for a fact that we were both sweating on Monday’s games, waiting for New England and San Diego to recover from surprising strong starts from Buffalo and Oakland.

Check out the full results over here and tell us how much better you did in the comments. Keep an eye out, our week 2 selections will be up shortly – the games just keep getting bigger and better!

Posted in Analysis, Buffalo Bills, Game, NFL, NFL on television, NFL schedule, New England Patriots, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers | No Comments »

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders Preview

September 14th, 2009 9:48 pm
by Big Dog

Quick question, why are the Oakland Raiders still allowed to play in the NFL? When you’ve set all kinds of records for losing streaks (six straight seasons with at least 11 losses, anyone?), surely it’s time to think seriously about whether or not football is right for you?

Things don’t improve at all for the Raiders as they line up to face fate, destiny, the Chargers again to open their season tonight.

San Diego Chargers

Last season Philip Rivers unequivocally proved that he is the right man to lead this offense, with great improvement with his all round skills, decision-making, pressure plays and reads. Expect him to make good use of tonight as a bonus preseason warmup game. If LaDainian Tomlinson also exhibits some of his potential, then tonight will in all likelihood be a whitewash. Even with the potential distractions of Shawne Merriman’s off-field dramas, I don’t think we can really expect the Chargers to be outmatched, outclassed or overwhelmed in this matchup.

Oakland Raiders

It’s hard to feel sorry for the Raiders anymore. Their management has taken the team beyond lost history and pride, and turned it into a modern day joke. They’ve had about a million coaching changes in the last few years (ok, ok – 5 coaches in six years, but is that really anything to brag about?) and their current coach is allegedly having fights with his assistants. Even so, it’s hard to feel sorry for the guy in spite of the fact that he’s clearly feeling the pressure. Anyone who signs on as the coach of the losingest team in football has to be a glutton for punishment. Even with the trade of former Patriots DE, Richard Seymour, the simple truth is that nobody likes the Raiders.

Conclusion

The Raiders suck, we all know they suck. Heck, the Chargers don’t even have to play good to win this thing. The Raiders have to play great just to avoid dying of embarrassment.

Prediction

Chargers 43-9

Posted in Analysis, Game, LaDainian Tomlinson, Monday Night Football, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, New England Patriots, Oakland Raiders, Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers, Shawne Merriman | No Comments »

AFC 2009 Power Previews – AFC East

July 20th, 2009 6:27 am
by Big Dog

AFC East

The AFC East always offers up an excruciating mix of brilliance and boredom. The one-sided domination of the division by the Patriots was slightly diminished last season, but they really are the only consistent performer. There are several teams trying to build on last year but we remain to be convinced that it will actually work. Here’s the breakdown.

Buffalo Bills

Big Dog Barks: So the Bills have acquired WR Terrell Owens in the hope that this will make some kind of impact for their offense. There’s no questioning that Owens has the ability to make the plays happen – but you still need somebody who can put the ball in his general vicinity. Last season the Bills struggled at QB and it’s difficult to see Owens making that much of a difference. At the same time something’s got to happen for Buffalo, surely this is their year?

Foolhardy Guess –   9-7 with an unanticipated success running the ball.

ProSet Proclaims: Chris ‘Boomer’ Berman always says that ‘no one circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills.’ With four straight losing seasons and a decade long playoff absence, Dick Jauron needs a last stand. QB Trent Edwards is no longer a promising youngster. He either needs to secure wins or leave town. No doubt WR Terrell Owens will chime in with advice at some point. RB Marshawn Lynch needs to better the league average of 4.1 ypc. DT Marcus Stroud needs some help up front on defense. The Bills have a weak secondary, and their season pass defense numbers are always protected by the weather. By then the season is lost. The Bills are an average team again, and their deficiencies will be cruelly exposed on opening night at Foxboro.

Fearless Prediction: 7-9 again with Dick Jauron fired

Miami Dolphins

Big Dog Barks: The formula for the Dolphins this season is pretty straightforward. They need to do what they did last year, but more so. More Wildcat, more defensive aggression, more speed, more, more, more. The big question of course is if they can do that. If they can then look for Miami to dominate in a way that will still not live up to the heyday of Dan Marino.

Foolhardy Guess -   10-6 with the Wildcat being made extinct by mid-season

ProSet Proclaims: The early season demolition of New England gave credibility to Miami. The disappointing home playoff loss to Baltimore showed that there is plenty to do for Bill Parcells. The schedule is tough, with AFC South and NFC South crossovers, as well as playing all AFC 2008 division champions. QB Chad Pennington has proven himself unable to unshackle tight coverage defenses by throwing over the safeties. This is why the Dolphins are very dependent on gimmick running such as Wildcat. With no deep passing threat, teams will load up in the box and suffocate the fish. The defense looks light up front and old at linebacker. No doubt Parcells will look to change that before opening day.

Fearless Prediction: 7-9 with South Beach running Pennington out of town

New England Patriots

Big Dog Barks: The 2009 season for the Patriots can be summed up in one phrase – pocket protection. The Giants proved in Superbowl XLII that all you need to do to succeed against the Patriots is beat their offensive line and sack Brady. Even worse is that the league took notice and while it was disappointing that Brady suffered a season ending injury in the first game of last year, that doesn’t change the fact that he is a marked man on the field. If the Patriots can protect their QB and keep him safe then they should enjoy another ridiculously successful season.

Foolhardy Guess – 10-6 with Brady getting injured in the third game of the season

ProSet Proclaims: QB Tom Brady is the best NFL Quarterback that I have ever seen. If the Patriots maintain his health, they will make the playoffs. I think that Brady has a lot to prove: four seasons without a ring. Fortunately for him, the line is intact. Dan Koppen; Logan Mankins; Stephen Neal; Matt Light; and Nick Kaczur combine to form the best O-Line in football. This season the pressure will be on the New England run defense. The loss at home to Miami will have been endlessly studied throughout the AFC East and beyond. Expect teams to run early and often on the Patriots. If the Patriots give up less than 4 ypc, and turnovers are even, the contest is over.

Fearless Prediction: 13-3 and a Superbowl win

New York Jets

Big Dog Barks: If Rex Ryan can bring a Baltimore style defense to the Jets then he’s more than justified his selection. If in addition to that Mark Sanchez can make a good start, then the Jets are the team to watch in the AFC East. There are a lot of changes in the NYJ equation this year, but change with a purpose can be a good thing and Jets fans will be hoping that the 2009 season brings change that they can believe in.

Foolhardy Guess -   12-4 with Sanchez making league MVP in his debut season

ProSet Proclaims: I’ll come straight out and say that Rex Ryan will do no better than Marvin Lewis. Another trendy Ravens DC hired after a hot streak that was player driven. This was a bad hire by Woody Johnson; just as Todd Haley was a bad hire by Clark Hunt at Kansas City. The QB depth is horrifying. QB Mark Sanchez is overrated and lost a conference game every year in the pathetic Pac 10. RB Thomas Jones is past his best. There are no threatening receivers. If I played for the Jets defense, I’d make sure that I was doing my conditioning work, because they will get plenty of playing time.

Fearless Prediction: 5-11 with Ryan retained only for ownership to save face

Posted in Analysis, Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Buffalo Bills, Chad Pennington, Dick Jauron, Game, Kansas City Chiefs, Marcus Stroud, Marvin Lewis, Miami Dolphins, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NY Giants, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Terrell Owens, Tom Brady | No Comments »

Strip benefits from fumbles

July 10th, 2009 6:14 am
by Pro Set

If a team that fumbles or muffs the ball forward is ultimately downed at a point of better field position, the dead ball spot should become the spot of the forward fumble or forward muff.

Remember the 2006 season AFC Championship Game? Indianapolis came back from 21-3 down to beat New England. Each team scored a touchdown from a forward fumble recovered in the endzone. Teams should never benefit from a forward fumble.

If a running back fumbles forward at the OPP 1 yard line, and the offense recovers in the endzone, the dead ball spot should be at the 1 yard line.  Backward fumbles are fine. No one wants to add to the complexity of officiating by adding a distinction between backward fumbles and laterals.

Unfortunately, the NFL has done just that. The rule (on 4th down or in final two minutes) that only the runner can advance ANY fumble is philosophically wrong. The rule is designed to dissuade “deliberate” fumbles: such as the Raiders vs Chargers Holy Roller. But a deliberate backward fumble is conceptually identical to a lateral: a team concedes ground and possession to risk a greater gain.

Proposed rule: “Excluding the enforcement of penalties, no team shall enjoy a dead ball spot beyond the point at which that team fumbled or muffed the ball forward during any play from scrimmage, or any free kick.”

Whether a fumble was forward would be reviewable. Will the NFL Competition Committee be proactive for once?

Posted in Analysis, Game, Indianapolis Colts, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, New England Patriots, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers | No Comments »