Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens Week 11 Preview

November 22nd, 2009 7:10 am
by Big Dog

Indianapolis have really made an impact in the league this year with their thus-far undefeated run into the season. Admittedly in the last few weeks they have had huge helpings of luck that let them get across the line, but I’m sure that many a fan is willing to argue that a truly great team makes their own luck.

The Ravens still have a legendary defensive unit and have been working to shore up their on-field dominance. At the same time, investment is going into the offensive side of the game and if Baltimore can take advantage of the Colts’ poor run defense then they’re in with a shot.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have caused a bit of a stir having managed to make it this far through the season without a loss. The truth is that while their winning record is very impressive, this isn’t a team of the same calibre as the New England Patriots when they had their unbeaten regular season. On that basis alone, the odds should be stacked against the Colts – but football likes teams and players that can defy the odds.

Which is why I’m basing my view of this game on a few other factors, such as the Colts’ performance in their last few games. Let’s face it, Indianapolis has been lucky, really lucky to make it this far without losing. Last week’s comeback against the Patriots wasn’t a story of pure grit and determination – it was the story of Belichick making a poor judgement call (easy to say in hindsight) and paying for it. In any case, if that were an isolated incident I’d be willing to ignore it, but the Colts have looked shaky recently and they’re due.

If they want to succeed then they need to give Ray Lewis a concussion, shut down the Ravens’ running game and continue their unprecedented lucky streak. In other words, it’s a tall order by anyone’s standards.

Baltimore Ravens

Ok – the Ravens aren’t what they once were, but they’re still a powerful defensive team with a system that works and a tactical military defensive genius in Ray Lewis. Basically they could still make your offense suffer if their entire defense were on crutches. Manning and the Colts have been undeniably good this season but all the Ravens have to do is disrupt them and disruption is something the Ravens do instinctively.

Offensively all the Ravens need to do is run the ball. The Colts still haven’t got to the part of “Football for Dummies” where it tells you that you’re allowed to tackle a running back for a loss, and they’ve proven it with yet another tragic season of running yards allowed.

Prediction

It won’t be pretty and it won’t be particularly easy, but the Ravens will bring the Colts’ streak to an end with solid defense and simple running. Ravens win 27 – 21

Posted in Analysis, Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Game, Indianapolis Colts, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, New England Patriots, Peyton Manning, Ray Lewis | No Comments »

Indianapolis @ Arizona SNF Week 3 Preview

September 27th, 2009 5:44 am
by Pro Set

Arizona QB Kurt Warner had a great day last Sunday at Jacksonville. Ticket sales prove it. This starkly contrasted with his terrible performance in the home opener against San Francisco. Warner is at his best with multiple targets that he trusts. In St Louis there was Holt, Bruce, Hakim and Proehl. In the desert, Fitzgerald and Boldin are much more effective when Urban and Breaston are also available. This was evident in Week 1 when the 49ers blanketed Fitzgerald on intermediate routes. Warner responded by holding onto the ball too long. With Colts S Bob Sanders almost certainly not playing, ARZ should be able to pass well enought to set up some running. RB Beanie Wells will probably see more carries as the game progresses.

Indianapolis secured an important conference win at Miami on MNF. Colts QB Peyton Manning will be primed for another nationally-televised victory. Against a Cardinals defense that covers up its deficiencies with blitzes, Manning has the chance to have a big night. Watch for TE Dallas Clark to take some hot reads against secondary blitzes from S Adrian Wilson and the corners. Manning is a quality QB. He will get the ball out against the blitz. The Cardinals will therefore be called upon to make crucial one-on-one tackles. If those tackles are missed, the Cardinals will lose. A 1-2 start could mean a long delay before NBC returns to the desert.

Posted in Arizona Cardinals, Game, Indianapolis Colts, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL on NBC, NFL on television, Peyton Manning | No Comments »

Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins Monday Night Football Preview

September 21st, 2009 10:37 am
by Big Dog

Monday Night Football rushes headlong toward us in a week already full of some amazing football. Neither of these two team were particularly impressive in their first week games, although the Colts did come away with the win. It will be interesting to see which team has made the better adjustments coming into week 2.

Indianapolis Colts

It’s got to be tough being Jim Caldwell and inheriting a successful and cohesive unit. Even though he’s been a part of the Colts organisation for many years one has to wonder how open these veterans are to new ideas and new styles of play, and whether Caldwell really will be able to make his own mark in Indianapolis football history. The Colts certainly looked edgy in their first real game of the season and narrowly escaped with the victory against a plucky Jacksonville. With Anthony Gonzalez out due to injury, the Colts lose an important piece of their passing game, and limit their options offensively. This may not be critical though, as the Indy defense has shown that Caldwell’s new philosophy is yielding success, particularly in the pressure they were able to bring against the pass last week. If they can build on their early offensive success and improve their running production this game is there for the Colts to grab.

Miami Dolphins

Even though they suffered yet another ignominious defeat in the first week of the season, Miami can take some positives from their run defense in that game. If they can contain the Colts’ running game and force the pass then they will start to open the game up a little. That said, offensive production is a major issue for the Dolphins right now. Far too many turnovers were allowed last week, and no team in the NFL can afford to give the ball away repeatedly. Pennington is a solid but aging quarterback who is struggling to find his rhythm with a line that allowed 4 sacks last week. In short the Dolphins aren’t carrying themselves like a team that believes they can win, let alone a team that is determined to win. The Wildcat isn’t fooling anyone, the overuse of any system or tactic guaranteeing bland predictability, and so it’s demise cannot come soon enough. If the Dolphins want to win, they need to get back to basics.

Prediction

It’s possible that the Dolphins will pull out an upset here, but based on current performance I think it’s far more likely that the Colts defense will get the job done. Until the Dolphins learn how to play basic football again they’re all roar and no claws.

Indianapolis 24 – 17

Posted in Analysis, Chad Pennington, Game, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins, Monday Night Football, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television | No Comments »

Strip benefits from fumbles

July 10th, 2009 6:14 am
by Pro Set

If a team that fumbles or muffs the ball forward is ultimately downed at a point of better field position, the dead ball spot should become the spot of the forward fumble or forward muff.

Remember the 2006 season AFC Championship Game? Indianapolis came back from 21-3 down to beat New England. Each team scored a touchdown from a forward fumble recovered in the endzone. Teams should never benefit from a forward fumble.

If a running back fumbles forward at the OPP 1 yard line, and the offense recovers in the endzone, the dead ball spot should be at the 1 yard line.  Backward fumbles are fine. No one wants to add to the complexity of officiating by adding a distinction between backward fumbles and laterals.

Unfortunately, the NFL has done just that. The rule (on 4th down or in final two minutes) that only the runner can advance ANY fumble is philosophically wrong. The rule is designed to dissuade “deliberate” fumbles: such as the Raiders vs Chargers Holy Roller. But a deliberate backward fumble is conceptually identical to a lateral: a team concedes ground and possession to risk a greater gain.

Proposed rule: “Excluding the enforcement of penalties, no team shall enjoy a dead ball spot beyond the point at which that team fumbled or muffed the ball forward during any play from scrimmage, or any free kick.”

Whether a fumble was forward would be reviewable. Will the NFL Competition Committee be proactive for once?

Posted in Analysis, Game, Indianapolis Colts, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, New England Patriots, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers | No Comments »

AFC 2009 Power Previews – AFC South

July 5th, 2009 10:31 am
by Big Dog

AFC South

The AFC South is devoid of massive media markets, but the division deserves some attention. Tennessee, the surprise 2008 champion, faces a quarterback controversy. Indianapolis, Jacksonville, and Houston will all consider themselves to be playoff contenders.

Tennessee Titans

ProSet Proclaims: Jeff Fisher needs his interior defensive linemen to cover the departure of DT Albert Haynesworth in free agency to Washington. DE Jevon Kearse is over the hill. DE Kyle Van Den Bosch has a great motor, but is injury prone. LB Keith Bulluck is a 10 year veteran. If the Titans can’t stuff the middle, last season’s 13 wins will be impossible to replicate. On the other side of the ball, Kerry Collins and Vince Young will dominate the headlines. The miserable performance by Collins in the AFC Divisional Playoff loss means that goodwill is scarce in Nashville. Ten wins would be a very good effort from this staff.

Fearless Prediction: 9-7 with a QB controversy

Big Dog Barks: It’s clear that there are two big questions facing Tennessee this season. The first is how will their defense hold up with the absence of DT Albert Haynesworth. A lot has been made of the Titans’ running game last season and while the dual options afforded by RB Chris Johnson and RB LenDale White are an essential part of last season’s impressive 13-3 record, it’s foolish to ignore the contribution their defense made to that record. It’s simply a lot easier to win games if your opposition are not provided opportunities to score. Defense wins games, and this year Tennessee has a big question hanging over their defense. In particular the defensive line need to have a big start to the season. They need to make a statement in their first few games to remind every opposing team why they should be feared this year. If they can do that, then the second big question the team faces is a little less of a problem… who is their QB? This year will see more competition for attention as Collins and Young compete for starting rights. In reality this issue just won’t matter if the Titans’ defense can’t reproduce their dominance of last year.

Foolhardy Guess: 8-8 with a defensive meltdown

Indianapolis Colts

ProSet Proclaims: I’ve been down on the Colts since they blew my money on the 2008 SNF opener. Tony Dungy, despite being perceived as a defensive coach, has bequeathed poor run defenses even in eras of success. Despite the weekly panegyric to S Bob Sanders, the Colts seem to me to remain weak against the run. DT Raheem Brock is not going to collapse interior running lanes. To beat the Colts in the Manning era, the recipe is simple. Run the ball effectively on first down and shorten the game. Manning will force passes and turn it over. Tennessee has been doing this at least since the 1999 AFC Divisional Playoff. The cross over with the NFC West will provide more wins than tough divisional contests.

Fearless Prediction: 11-5 with a Week 17 loss costing a first round bye

Big Dog Barks: Even with the change in coaching staff, it’s unlikely that the Colts will bring anything particularly new to football this season. Unfortunately for them that probably means that they’ll also bring a season plagued by injuries with them this year. There’s little point in detailed analysis at this stage, if you’re a Colts fan, just stock lots of beer to drown your sorrows, buy stock in your local sports medicine clinic and prepare yourself for the inevitable rebuilding required over the next few years.

Foolhardy Guess: 9-7 with major injury problems all season long

Jacksonville Jaguars

ProSet Proclaims: The small market Jags need a bounce after last season’s 5-11 record. With several veterans departed, including RB Fred Taylor, Jacksonville is desperate to keep QB David Garrard healthy. The passer depth is pitiful. Shunned Rams legend WR Torry Holt will be useless without protection for Garrard. It was no surprise to see JAX select two offensive tackles in the first 40 overall picks. If early season losses arrive, it could be blackout central for the Jaguars market, despite the covered seats. Wayne Weaver will not appreciate the pessimism, but Jags fans, despite Weaver’s marketing efforts, know this will be a tough season. Jack Del Rio bet his career on Garrard. This season will be time enough to judge.

Fearless Prediction: 6-10 with a coaching change at season’s end

Big Dog Barks: WR Torry Holt joins the team as QB Garrard’s primary target and that should help things on the offensive side of the ball. Even so, it remains that the relatively young defensive team is really going to need to step up and get the job done when they’re on the field. The goal for the Jaguars this season needs to be to protect Garrard and Holt, keeping them out of situations in which they need to take major risks. If Garrard can get the protection he needs and the defense can produce some consistently good performances then the Jags might just wind up making some noise this season.

Foolhardy Guess: 7-9 but don’t worry – it’s unlikely anybody will be watching anyway

Houston Texans

ProSet Proclaims: Zero playoff games and a failed No 1 overall QB. It is a bit sad to think that the highlight of the seven seasons of Texans football was their opening game: a nationally televised win over Dallas. The franchise is best known for moments such as last season’s disastrous loss at home to Indianapolis. No 1 overall pick DE Mario Williams will need to pressure the passer, as the Houston secondary is weak. It goes without saying that QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson need to fire, although you could not pay me enough to be “protected” by the Houston offensive line. Gary Kubiak needs to make that work; otherwise he’ll be another footnote in Texans futility.

Fearless Prediction: 5-11 with Allen Stanford appointed to manage team finances

Big Dog Barks: Last season the Texans continued their lacklustre performance with a disappointing 8-8 record. However, it is important to remember that there were several disruptive factors in the early weeks of the 2008 season, in fact Houston had a great streak in the second half of the season and managed to claw their way back from an abysmal start. If they can improve their consistency on both sides of the ball, but especially become more productive on offense, then this could finally be their year. Most importantly for their offensive efforts is to understand the simple principle of converting yards gained into points won. It sounds simple, but pounding the ground close to the goal is going to need to be a major focus for this team. Victory is founded on this sort of simplicity.

Foolhardy Guess: 11-5 with a surprise draftee becoming an instant superstar

Posted in Analysis, Bob Sanders, David Garrard, Game, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kyle Van Den Bosch, LenDale White, Matt Schaub, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL schedule, Peyton Manning, Tennessee Titans, Vince Young | No Comments »