July 5th, 2009 10:31 am
by Big Dog
AFC South
The AFC South is devoid of massive media markets, but the division deserves some attention. Tennessee, the surprise 2008 champion, faces a quarterback controversy. Indianapolis, Jacksonville, and Houston will all consider themselves to be playoff contenders.
Tennessee Titans
ProSet Proclaims: Jeff Fisher needs his interior defensive linemen to cover the departure of DT Albert Haynesworth in free agency to Washington. DE Jevon Kearse is over the hill. DE Kyle Van Den Bosch has a great motor, but is injury prone. LB Keith Bulluck is a 10 year veteran. If the Titans can’t stuff the middle, last season’s 13 wins will be impossible to replicate. On the other side of the ball, Kerry Collins and Vince Young will dominate the headlines. The miserable performance by Collins in the AFC Divisional Playoff loss means that goodwill is scarce in Nashville. Ten wins would be a very good effort from this staff.
Fearless Prediction: 9-7 with a QB controversy
Big Dog Barks: It’s clear that there are two big questions facing Tennessee this season. The first is how will their defense hold up with the absence of DT Albert Haynesworth. A lot has been made of the Titans’ running game last season and while the dual options afforded by RB Chris Johnson and RB LenDale White are an essential part of last season’s impressive 13-3 record, it’s foolish to ignore the contribution their defense made to that record. It’s simply a lot easier to win games if your opposition are not provided opportunities to score. Defense wins games, and this year Tennessee has a big question hanging over their defense. In particular the defensive line need to have a big start to the season. They need to make a statement in their first few games to remind every opposing team why they should be feared this year. If they can do that, then the second big question the team faces is a little less of a problem… who is their QB? This year will see more competition for attention as Collins and Young compete for starting rights. In reality this issue just won’t matter if the Titans’ defense can’t reproduce their dominance of last year.
Foolhardy Guess: 8-8 with a defensive meltdown
Indianapolis Colts
ProSet Proclaims: I’ve been down on the Colts since they blew my money on the 2008 SNF opener. Tony Dungy, despite being perceived as a defensive coach, has bequeathed poor run defenses even in eras of success. Despite the weekly panegyric to S Bob Sanders, the Colts seem to me to remain weak against the run. DT Raheem Brock is not going to collapse interior running lanes. To beat the Colts in the Manning era, the recipe is simple. Run the ball effectively on first down and shorten the game. Manning will force passes and turn it over. Tennessee has been doing this at least since the 1999 AFC Divisional Playoff. The cross over with the NFC West will provide more wins than tough divisional contests.
Fearless Prediction: 11-5 with a Week 17 loss costing a first round bye
Big Dog Barks: Even with the change in coaching staff, it’s unlikely that the Colts will bring anything particularly new to football this season. Unfortunately for them that probably means that they’ll also bring a season plagued by injuries with them this year. There’s little point in detailed analysis at this stage, if you’re a Colts fan, just stock lots of beer to drown your sorrows, buy stock in your local sports medicine clinic and prepare yourself for the inevitable rebuilding required over the next few years.
Foolhardy Guess: 9-7 with major injury problems all season long
Jacksonville Jaguars
ProSet Proclaims: The small market Jags need a bounce after last season’s 5-11 record. With several veterans departed, including RB Fred Taylor, Jacksonville is desperate to keep QB David Garrard healthy. The passer depth is pitiful. Shunned Rams legend WR Torry Holt will be useless without protection for Garrard. It was no surprise to see JAX select two offensive tackles in the first 40 overall picks. If early season losses arrive, it could be blackout central for the Jaguars market, despite the covered seats. Wayne Weaver will not appreciate the pessimism, but Jags fans, despite Weaver’s marketing efforts, know this will be a tough season. Jack Del Rio bet his career on Garrard. This season will be time enough to judge.
Fearless Prediction: 6-10 with a coaching change at season’s end
Big Dog Barks: WR Torry Holt joins the team as QB Garrard’s primary target and that should help things on the offensive side of the ball. Even so, it remains that the relatively young defensive team is really going to need to step up and get the job done when they’re on the field. The goal for the Jaguars this season needs to be to protect Garrard and Holt, keeping them out of situations in which they need to take major risks. If Garrard can get the protection he needs and the defense can produce some consistently good performances then the Jags might just wind up making some noise this season.
Foolhardy Guess: 7-9 but don’t worry – it’s unlikely anybody will be watching anyway
Houston Texans
ProSet Proclaims: Zero playoff games and a failed No 1 overall QB. It is a bit sad to think that the highlight of the seven seasons of Texans football was their opening game: a nationally televised win over Dallas. The franchise is best known for moments such as last season’s disastrous loss at home to Indianapolis. No 1 overall pick DE Mario Williams will need to pressure the passer, as the Houston secondary is weak. It goes without saying that QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson need to fire, although you could not pay me enough to be “protected” by the Houston offensive line. Gary Kubiak needs to make that work; otherwise he’ll be another footnote in Texans futility.
Fearless Prediction: 5-11 with Allen Stanford appointed to manage team finances
Big Dog Barks: Last season the Texans continued their lacklustre performance with a disappointing 8-8 record. However, it is important to remember that there were several disruptive factors in the early weeks of the 2008 season, in fact Houston had a great streak in the second half of the season and managed to claw their way back from an abysmal start. If they can improve their consistency on both sides of the ball, but especially become more productive on offense, then this could finally be their year. Most importantly for their offensive efforts is to understand the simple principle of converting yards gained into points won. It sounds simple, but pounding the ground close to the goal is going to need to be a major focus for this team. Victory is founded on this sort of simplicity.
Foolhardy Guess: 11-5 with a surprise draftee becoming an instant superstar
Posted in Analysis, Bob Sanders, David Garrard, Game, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kyle Van Den Bosch, LenDale White, Matt Schaub, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL schedule, Peyton Manning, Tennessee Titans, Vince Young | No Comments »