Dallas gifted a win last week to Denver. Early on, the Cowboys dominated up front. Until the crazy decision to have QB Tony Romo take a seven step drop, the Cowboys were completely in control. Denver will start better against New England. QB Kyle Orton did not convinve me. The TD pass to WR Brandon Marshall should have been easily deflected, but CB Terence Newman leapt with two hands as if to catch. As for the Dallas final drive, Denver gave up yards like a high school team and then simply blitzed nine men at the goal line. That won’t survive 16 games. Denver will be destroyed this week if New England plays cleanly.
New England still needs to run the ball more. Denver is weak inside. In the win over the Ravens, the Patriots should have buried the Ravens earlier. It’s hard to concede a sack / FR TD on first down when running the ball. The attention over the roughing the passer penalties has lessened the focus on the lack of power running from Foxboro. With WR Randy Moss and WR Wes Welker healthier, QB Tom Brady should demolish the Donkeys. On the other side, the interior NE defense has improved since the loss to the Jets. There is a still a question over whether NE can rush the passer adequately without blitzing. This will be tested if the Patriots trail or if the game is close.
Dallas (2-1) has not travelled to Denver since 1998 meaning that the Cowboys grace Invesco Field for the first time. Denver embarrassed Dallas in their last meeting on Thanksgiving Day no less. This Cowboys team is feeling very little love despite its winning record. QB Tony Romo (57%; 4 TD; 3 INT) needs to throw the ball better. WR Roy Williams (8 rec; 179 yds; 1 TD) needs to gain his quarterback’s confidence. It was telling that Jason Garrett ordered an endzone fade to TE Martellus Bennett on MNF in the win over Carolina. When that pass is thrown to Williams on a consistent basis, it will signify that he is the #1 WR. On the ground, both RB Marion Barber (QST) and RB Felix Jones (OUT) will contribute little. RB Tashard Choice, however, has shown enough to warrant respect from the Donkeys (a.k.a Broncos defense). It is critical for Dallas that Choice presents a credible ground threat, in order for TE Jason Witten to get free on play action. A credible ground threat will require a solid performance from the Cowboys O-line. Remember to sink a beer when T Flozell Adams executes his mandatory false start.
Denver (3-0) is faring better than expected in the AFC West. It is important to note that Denver, when it matters, has not trailed by more than a score this season. QB Kyle Orton (56%; 3 TD; 0 INT) is not known from dramatic comebacks. RB Correll Buckhalter (31 car; 230 yds) might be averaging over 7 ypc, but Dallas will provide a sterner test. The Cowboys were able to cause significant disruption on 1st down against Carolina. NT Jay Ratliff will look to get inside penetration adn force Denver to run outside. The Denver interior line will need to drive through the point of attack. If Denver gets its guards onto the Dallas linebackers, the game is theirs to control. This will also set up bootleg passing for Orton. Dallas, overall, should win as long as points off turnovers work in the Cowboys’ favour.
Basically Carolina are screwed. They’re playing the Cowboys at home and this is a Dallas outfit that needs to secure a win at home. Of course the Panthers are motivated coming off a shaky start to the season, but this isn’t going to be their week. The Cowboys running game will continue to be strong and as long as their defense can pressure the Carolina O-Line and Quarterback, they should be able to create enough disruption.
It’s going to be an entertaining game, but the Cowboys will seal the deal with their first home victory.
The Giants impressed many, especially FOX network executives, with their win over Washington. In the past, the Giants have played well at Texas Stadium. But of course Sunday night marks the first NFL match at the Jerry Jones theme park known as Cowboys Stadium. To state the obvious, the Giants must run the ball well inside. RB Brandon Jacobs needs to be productive on early downs. Bucs RB Carnell Williams ran over several Cowboys on Sunday. Similar hard running will allow QB Eli Manning to use play action. A poor running game, however, will see Cowboys star DeMarcus Ware at his pass rushing best.
The Cowboys were also impressive with a road win at Tampa Bay. Terrible coverage breakdowns by the Bucs gave easy scores to QB Tony Romo. For all the criticism he recieves, Romo is a good QB. And with serious inury concerns hanging over the entire NYG secondary, Romo and WR Roy Williams will be keen for more big plays. And therein lies they key for the Cowboys. Romo cannot force big plays. His job is to move the chains and exploit the right matchups at the right time: TE Jason Witten should expect a lot of work.
I expect this to be a very close game. NYG will struggle if they fall behind. The Cowboys will not fear the NYG receivers, so if Romo plays a clean game and the Cowboys hold Jacobs in check, the Cowboys should win.
In the 50th anniversary AFL season, the AFC West looks like a one team show. Al Davis, Pat Bowlen and Clark Hunt proffer three head coaches with one combined season of NFL head coaching experience. Norv Turner knows that 5-8 will not again be parlayed into a home playoff win. San Diego expects to win; the others hope.
Looking forward, season 2009 will be defined by the three AFC West games that open the schedule for the Raiders. Tom Cable is on the hot seat at 0-0. He needs help. Two recent SEC superstars need to deliver. QB JaMarcus Russell (LSU) and RB Darren McFadden (Arkansas) will feel the heat this season. They weren’t drafted to be backups. Some blocking and catching would help; I think that WR Javon Walker probably owes several TDs to the Raiders.
On defense, the anchor is Cleveland and Denver reject: DT Gerard Warren. Denver is well known for quality run defense: ask Mike Shanahan. It looks like DE Derrick Burgess will again be the sole pass rush threat. And he had better get to the QB fast, as the Raiders have been awful at safety since Shannon Sharpe humiliated them in the 2000 season AFC Title game.
Fearless Prediction: 5-11 and swept by the Chargers again
Big Dog Barks: To be honest with you, I’d actually forgotten the Raiders still existed. As a team they’re equivalent of the “payroll error” in the movie Office Space – everyone stopped paying attention to the Raiders years ago and they just kept turning up anyway. Actually I think Oakland could benefit from holding open tryouts and seeing who turns up – at least then we’d have something interesting to watch. Who knows, maybe there are some talented high school kids in the Bay Area who deserve a shot?
Foolhardy Guess: 4-12 assuming that somebody can talk Rudy into playing for them -
ProSet Proclaims: Denver deserves to have a better season. Owner Pat Bowlen is a loyal guy. But one playoff win in ten seasons is firing material in Cincinnati, let alone Denver. No Sunday night games illustrate the fall.
Josh McDaniels has blown up the skill positions in his first off-season. QB Jay Cutler was traded for QB Kyle Orton. RB Correll Buckhalter is new. RB Knowshon Moreno (UGA) was drafted first round. WR Brandon Marshall is unsettled. Considering his predecessor was a supposed offensive genius, this is another example of perception overcoming reality. I mean, people still believe that the GOP is the party of small government, but both major parties are as wasteful as each other regarding public funds.
On defense, Denver is apparently considering a new system: tackling opposition runners and covering opposition receivers. New Defensive Coordinator Mike Nolan says that pressuring the passer is a bit advanced for the Donkeys. The depth chart backs him up.
Fearless Prediction: 7-9 with Thanksgiving prayers not to repeat the last Giants at Broncos match
Big Dog Barks: It’s sorely tempting to ask if “Mile High” is a reflection of Pat Bowlen’s mental state. To display this much loyalty after one playoff win in ten seasons implies he’s on some really good medication, or that somebody has compromising photos stashed away somewhere.
In any case, this is the year to try new things, like basic defense and offense. It remains to be seen how well they will do, but it’s hard not to echo Homer’s sentiments after Hank Scorpio gives him a football team –
ProSet Proclaims: This will be a tough season in Kansas City. The networks agree. The Chiefs have zero prime time games (despite crossing over with the ratings powerhouse NFC East). There is only one potential nationally televised game: Week 17 at Denver. CBS lower lights Don Criqui or Bill Macatee might as well buy a trailer next to Arrowhead.
On the field, the Chiefs will be sorely disappointed by new coach Todd Haley. The current trend to hire ‘hot’ coaching commodities on the back of one playoff run show s a disturbing bias towards ticket sales and ‘buzz’ over results. QB Kurt Warner to WR Larry Fitzgerald is not available. Legendary TE Tony Gonzalez has been traded. RB Larry Johnson, if his heart is in it, still holds the key to the Chiefs offense. The last remnant of the great mid-decade Chiefs O-Line, G Brian Waters, is unhappy. This is not good news for QB Matt Cassel. He might want to hire a full time home help.
Without the football (Chiefs fans are used to this) the new 3-4 defense looks weak up front. Glenn Dorsey will need to adjust fast to the difficult life of a 3-4 end. He’ll be expected to attract enough attention to free up blitzing linebackers. If he does his job well, doubtless the ill-informed will then highlight his low individual stats.
Fearless Prediction: 4-12 with a win over Denver to honour Lamar Hunt
Big Dog Barks: It takes a whole lot of things to come together in order to have a winning football franchise, no single coach or player can do it alone. Unfortunately for the Chiefs this year too many key members have been traded, lost or have other reasons to not be bonding well and this does not bode well for the possibility of developing real team cohesion.
They might get lucky and find the intensity of their first few games motivating enough to form them into a tight-knit unit but that doesn’t seem very likely. This will be a good season for Kansas City fans to circle the wagons and stockpile rations, they’re going to feel under siege.
Foolhardy Guess: 3-13 with the cavalry charging in to save the other side
Proset Proclaims: Norv Turner needs a faster start this season: and he gets the Raiders to open. San Diego should be 6-0 in the AFC West and beat CLE and CIN easily: that’s 8 wins.
I was really impressed with QB Philip Rivers last season. With RB LaDainian Tomlinson below his best, Rivers owned the offense. RB Darren Sproles got a lot of love for his efforts, but San Diego set up the run with the pass. As long as he hasn’t lost a step, WR Chris Chambers is the key receiver. He can draw a safety wide, allowing TE Antonio Gates to run the skinny post inside. I would line up Gates in the slot with Chambers at split end. If the defense floods that side, WR Vincent Jackson should have acres of space opposite. Rivers is now mature enough to make the right decision.
On defense, I felt that DT Jamal Williams was not quite as dominant last season. Obviously the injured LB Shawne Merriman stole the headlines. The Chargers have a good secondary. The linebackers must stay disciplined. There was a lot of outside rush last year and resultant inside gashing. Sacks look good. But an opposition YPC of fewer than 3.5 will win games.
Fearless Prediction: 12-4 with the game at Dallas being a season highlight
Big Dog Barks: Rivers was great for the Chargers last year and his decision making visibly improved as the season progressed. Expect more of the same this year, especially if Norv Turner can continue to make good use of his other key assets. The Chargers are on their way to being an electrifying team in the NFL once again. Look for them to get out to an early lead and to build on their winning momentum. Clearly they are the frontrunners for their division.
Foolhardy Guess: 14-2 with early breathless commentary about their ability to go undefeated
What connection does the death of Michael Jackson have to the 2009 NFL Season? It reminds everyone that value comes from scarcity. Merchandise and record sales for Jackson’s music have already skyrocketed since his death . So as everyone awaits training camp, here are five pieces of NFL memorabilia that I’d love to have.
Tom Landry’s hat: unfortunately for many younger NFL fans, Tom Landry’s hat is known only through Globex Corp but this hat symbolized the rise of America’s team: the Dallas Cowboys
Lamar Hunt’s chequebook: a basic rule of economics is that monopolies become inefficient, and Mr Hunt, by bankrolling the AFL, drove the NFL to its current omnipotence
Lambeau Field grass: the most storied venue in the League will hopefully never switch to Field Turf
