Indianapolis have really made an impact in the league this year with their thus-far undefeated run into the season. Admittedly in the last few weeks they have had huge helpings of luck that let them get across the line, but I’m sure that many a fan is willing to argue that a truly great team makes their own luck.
The Ravens still have a legendary defensive unit and have been working to shore up their on-field dominance. At the same time, investment is going into the offensive side of the game and if Baltimore can take advantage of the Colts’ poor run defense then they’re in with a shot.
The Colts have caused a bit of a stir having managed to make it this far through the season without a loss. The truth is that while their winning record is very impressive, this isn’t a team of the same calibre as the New England Patriots when they had their unbeaten regular season. On that basis alone, the odds should be stacked against the Colts – but football likes teams and players that can defy the odds.
Which is why I’m basing my view of this game on a few other factors, such as the Colts’ performance in their last few games. Let’s face it, Indianapolis has been lucky, really lucky to make it this far without losing. Last week’s comeback against the Patriots wasn’t a story of pure grit and determination – it was the story of Belichick making a poor judgement call (easy to say in hindsight) and paying for it. In any case, if that were an isolated incident I’d be willing to ignore it, but the Colts have looked shaky recently and they’re due.
If they want to succeed then they need to give Ray Lewis a concussion, shut down the Ravens’ running game and continue their unprecedented lucky streak. In other words, it’s a tall order by anyone’s standards.
Ok – the Ravens aren’t what they once were, but they’re still a powerful defensive team with a system that works and a tactical military defensive genius in Ray Lewis. Basically they could still make your offense suffer if their entire defense were on crutches. Manning and the Colts have been undeniably good this season but all the Ravens have to do is disrupt them and disruption is something the Ravens do instinctively.
Offensively all the Ravens need to do is run the ball. The Colts still haven’t got to the part of “Football for Dummies” where it tells you that you’re allowed to tackle a running back for a loss, and they’ve proven it with yet another tragic season of running yards allowed.
It won’t be pretty and it won’t be particularly easy, but the Ravens will bring the Colts’ streak to an end with solid defense and simple running. Ravens win 27 – 21
The first week is all played out and I’m proud to be able to claim the crown for the moment. I called one more game correctly than ProSet and am going to brag about it while I can. I know for a fact that we were both sweating on Monday’s games, waiting for New England and San Diego to recover from surprising strong starts from Buffalo and Oakland.
Check out the full results over here and tell us how much better you did in the comments. Keep an eye out, our week 2 selections will be up shortly – the games just keep getting bigger and better!
Quick question, why are the Oakland Raiders still allowed to play in the NFL? When you’ve set all kinds of records for losing streaks (six straight seasons with at least 11 losses, anyone?), surely it’s time to think seriously about whether or not football is right for you?
Things don’t improve at all for the Raiders as they line up to face fate, destiny, the Chargers again to open their season tonight.
Last season Philip Rivers unequivocally proved that he is the right man to lead this offense, with great improvement with his all round skills, decision-making, pressure plays and reads. Expect him to make good use of tonight as a bonus preseason warmup game. If LaDainian Tomlinson also exhibits some of his potential, then tonight will in all likelihood be a whitewash. Even with the potential distractions of Shawne Merriman’s off-field dramas, I don’t think we can really expect the Chargers to be outmatched, outclassed or overwhelmed in this matchup.
It’s hard to feel sorry for the Raiders anymore. Their management has taken the team beyond lost history and pride, and turned it into a modern day joke. They’ve had about a million coaching changes in the last few years (ok, ok – 5 coaches in six years, but is that really anything to brag about?) and their current coach is allegedly having fights with his assistants. Even so, it’s hard to feel sorry for the guy in spite of the fact that he’s clearly feeling the pressure. Anyone who signs on as the coach of the losingest team in football has to be a glutton for punishment. Even with the trade of former Patriots DE, Richard Seymour, the simple truth is that nobody likes the Raiders.
Conclusion
The Raiders suck, we all know they suck. Heck, the Chargers don’t even have to play good to win this thing. The Raiders have to play great just to avoid dying of embarrassment.
The AFC East always offers up an excruciating mix of brilliance and boredom. The one-sided domination of the division by the Patriots was slightly diminished last season, but they really are the only consistent performer. There are several teams trying to build on last year but we remain to be convinced that it will actually work. Here’s the breakdown.
Big Dog Barks:So the Bills have acquired WR Terrell Owens in the hope that this will make some kind of impact for their offense. There’s no questioning that Owens has the ability to make the plays happen – but you still need somebody who can put the ball in his general vicinity. Last season the Bills struggled at QB and it’s difficult to see Owens making that much of a difference. At the same time something’s got to happen for Buffalo, surely this is their year?
Foolhardy Guess – 9-7 with an unanticipated success running the ball.
ProSet Proclaims:Chris ‘Boomer’ Berman always says that ‘no one circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills.’ With four straight losing seasons and a decade long playoff absence, Dick Jauron needs a last stand. QB Trent Edwards is no longer a promising youngster. He either needs to secure wins or leave town. No doubt WR Terrell Owens will chime in with advice at some point. RB Marshawn Lynch needs to better the league average of 4.1 ypc. DT Marcus Stroud needs some help up front on defense. The Bills have a weak secondary, and their season pass defense numbers are always protected by the weather. By then the season is lost. The Bills are an average team again, and their deficiencies will be cruelly exposed on opening night at Foxboro.
Fearless Prediction: 7-9 again with Dick Jauron fired
Big Dog Barks: The formula for the Dolphins this season is pretty straightforward. They need to do what they did last year, but more so. More Wildcat, more defensive aggression, more speed, more, more, more. The big question of course is if they can do that. If they can then look for Miami to dominate in a way that will still not live up to the heyday of Dan Marino.
Foolhardy Guess - 10-6 with the Wildcat being made extinct by mid-season
ProSet Proclaims: The early season demolition of New England gave credibility to Miami. The disappointing home playoff loss to Baltimore showed that there is plenty to do for Bill Parcells. The schedule is tough, with AFC South and NFC South crossovers, as well as playing all AFC 2008 division champions. QB Chad Pennington has proven himself unable to unshackle tight coverage defenses by throwing over the safeties. This is why the Dolphins are very dependent on gimmick running such as Wildcat. With no deep passing threat, teams will load up in the box and suffocate the fish. The defense looks light up front and old at linebacker. No doubt Parcells will look to change that before opening day.
Fearless Prediction: 7-9 with South Beach running Pennington out of town
Big Dog Barks: The 2009 season for the Patriots can be summed up in one phrase – pocket protection. The Giants proved in Superbowl XLII that all you need to do to succeed against the Patriots is beat their offensive line and sack Brady. Even worse is that the league took notice and while it was disappointing that Brady suffered a season ending injury in the first game of last year, that doesn’t change the fact that he is a marked man on the field. If the Patriots can protect their QB and keep him safe then they should enjoy another ridiculously successful season.
Foolhardy Guess – 10-6 with Brady getting injured in the third game of the season
ProSet Proclaims: QB Tom Brady is the best NFL Quarterback that I have ever seen. If the Patriots maintain his health, they will make the playoffs. I think that Brady has a lot to prove: four seasons without a ring. Fortunately for him, the line is intact. Dan Koppen; Logan Mankins; Stephen Neal; Matt Light; and Nick Kaczur combine to form the best O-Line in football. This season the pressure will be on the New England run defense. The loss at home to Miami will have been endlessly studied throughout the AFC East and beyond. Expect teams to run early and often on the Patriots. If the Patriots give up less than 4 ypc, and turnovers are even, the contest is over.
Big Dog Barks: If Rex Ryan can bring a Baltimore style defense to the Jets then he’s more than justified his selection. If in addition to that Mark Sanchez can make a good start, then the Jets are the team to watch in the AFC East. There are a lot of changes in the NYJ equation this year, but change with a purpose can be a good thing and Jets fans will be hoping that the 2009 season brings change that they can believe in.
Foolhardy Guess - 12-4 with Sanchez making league MVP in his debut season
ProSet Proclaims: I’ll come straight out and say that Rex Ryan will do no better than Marvin Lewis. Another trendy Ravens DC hired after a hot streak that was player driven. This was a bad hire by Woody Johnson; just as Todd Haley was a bad hire by Clark Hunt at Kansas City. The QB depth is horrifying. QB Mark Sanchez is overrated and lost a conference game every year in the pathetic Pac 10. RB Thomas Jones is past his best. There are no threatening receivers. If I played for the Jets defense, I’d make sure that I was doing my conditioning work, because they will get plenty of playing time.
Fearless Prediction: 5-11 with Ryan retained only for ownership to save face
In the 50th anniversary AFL season, the AFC West looks like a one team show. Al Davis, Pat Bowlen and Clark Hunt proffer three head coaches with one combined season of NFL head coaching experience. Norv Turner knows that 5-8 will not again be parlayed into a home playoff win. San Diego expects to win; the others hope.
Looking forward, season 2009 will be defined by the three AFC West games that open the schedule for the Raiders. Tom Cable is on the hot seat at 0-0. He needs help. Two recent SEC superstars need to deliver. QB JaMarcus Russell (LSU) and RB Darren McFadden (Arkansas) will feel the heat this season. They weren’t drafted to be backups. Some blocking and catching would help; I think that WR Javon Walker probably owes several TDs to the Raiders.
On defense, the anchor is Cleveland and Denver reject: DT Gerard Warren. Denver is well known for quality run defense: ask Mike Shanahan. It looks like DE Derrick Burgess will again be the sole pass rush threat. And he had better get to the QB fast, as the Raiders have been awful at safety since Shannon Sharpe humiliated them in the 2000 season AFC Title game.
Fearless Prediction: 5-11 and swept by the Chargers again
Big Dog Barks: To be honest with you, I’d actually forgotten the Raiders still existed. As a team they’re equivalent of the “payroll error” in the movie Office Space – everyone stopped paying attention to the Raiders years ago and they just kept turning up anyway. Actually I think Oakland could benefit from holding open tryouts and seeing who turns up – at least then we’d have something interesting to watch. Who knows, maybe there are some talented high school kids in the Bay Area who deserve a shot?
Foolhardy Guess: 4-12 assuming that somebody can talk Rudy into playing for them -
ProSet Proclaims: Denver deserves to have a better season. Owner Pat Bowlen is a loyal guy. But one playoff win in ten seasons is firing material in Cincinnati, let alone Denver. No Sunday night games illustrate the fall.
Josh McDaniels has blown up the skill positions in his first off-season. QB Jay Cutler was traded for QB Kyle Orton. RB Correll Buckhalter is new. RB Knowshon Moreno (UGA) was drafted first round. WR Brandon Marshall is unsettled. Considering his predecessor was a supposed offensive genius, this is another example of perception overcoming reality. I mean, people still believe that the GOP is the party of small government, but both major parties are as wasteful as each other regarding public funds.
On defense, Denver is apparently considering a new system: tackling opposition runners and covering opposition receivers. New Defensive Coordinator Mike Nolan says that pressuring the passer is a bit advanced for the Donkeys. The depth chart backs him up.
Fearless Prediction: 7-9 with Thanksgiving prayers not to repeat the last Giants at Broncos match
Big Dog Barks: It’s sorely tempting to ask if “Mile High” is a reflection of Pat Bowlen’s mental state. To display this much loyalty after one playoff win in ten seasons implies he’s on some really good medication, or that somebody has compromising photos stashed away somewhere.
In any case, this is the year to try new things, like basic defense and offense. It remains to be seen how well they will do, but it’s hard not to echo Homer’s sentiments after Hank Scorpio gives him a football team –
ProSet Proclaims: This will be a tough season in Kansas City. The networks agree. The Chiefs have zero prime time games (despite crossing over with the ratings powerhouse NFC East). There is only one potential nationally televised game: Week 17 at Denver. CBS lower lights Don Criqui or Bill Macatee might as well buy a trailer next to Arrowhead.
On the field, the Chiefs will be sorely disappointed by new coach Todd Haley. The current trend to hire ‘hot’ coaching commodities on the back of one playoff run show s a disturbing bias towards ticket sales and ‘buzz’ over results. QB Kurt Warner to WR Larry Fitzgerald is not available. Legendary TE Tony Gonzalez has been traded. RB Larry Johnson, if his heart is in it, still holds the key to the Chiefs offense. The last remnant of the great mid-decade Chiefs O-Line, G Brian Waters, is unhappy. This is not good news for QB Matt Cassel. He might want to hire a full time home help.
Without the football (Chiefs fans are used to this) the new 3-4 defense looks weak up front. Glenn Dorsey will need to adjust fast to the difficult life of a 3-4 end. He’ll be expected to attract enough attention to free up blitzing linebackers. If he does his job well, doubtless the ill-informed will then highlight his low individual stats.
Fearless Prediction: 4-12 with a win over Denver to honour Lamar Hunt
Big Dog Barks: It takes a whole lot of things to come together in order to have a winning football franchise, no single coach or player can do it alone. Unfortunately for the Chiefs this year too many key members have been traded, lost or have other reasons to not be bonding well and this does not bode well for the possibility of developing real team cohesion.
They might get lucky and find the intensity of their first few games motivating enough to form them into a tight-knit unit but that doesn’t seem very likely. This will be a good season for Kansas City fans to circle the wagons and stockpile rations, they’re going to feel under siege.
Foolhardy Guess: 3-13 with the cavalry charging in to save the other side
Proset Proclaims: Norv Turner needs a faster start this season: and he gets the Raiders to open. San Diego should be 6-0 in the AFC West and beat CLE and CIN easily: that’s 8 wins.
I was really impressed with QB Philip Rivers last season. With RB LaDainian Tomlinson below his best, Rivers owned the offense. RB Darren Sproles got a lot of love for his efforts, but San Diego set up the run with the pass. As long as he hasn’t lost a step, WR Chris Chambers is the key receiver. He can draw a safety wide, allowing TE Antonio Gates to run the skinny post inside. I would line up Gates in the slot with Chambers at split end. If the defense floods that side, WR Vincent Jackson should have acres of space opposite. Rivers is now mature enough to make the right decision.
On defense, I felt that DT Jamal Williams was not quite as dominant last season. Obviously the injured LB Shawne Merriman stole the headlines. The Chargers have a good secondary. The linebackers must stay disciplined. There was a lot of outside rush last year and resultant inside gashing. Sacks look good. But an opposition YPC of fewer than 3.5 will win games.
Fearless Prediction: 12-4 with the game at Dallas being a season highlight
Big Dog Barks: Rivers was great for the Chargers last year and his decision making visibly improved as the season progressed. Expect more of the same this year, especially if Norv Turner can continue to make good use of his other key assets. The Chargers are on their way to being an electrifying team in the NFL once again. Look for them to get out to an early lead and to build on their winning momentum. Clearly they are the frontrunners for their division.
Foolhardy Guess: 14-2 with early breathless commentary about their ability to go undefeated
The AFC South is devoid of massive media markets, but the division deserves some attention. Tennessee, the surprise 2008 champion, faces a quarterback controversy. Indianapolis, Jacksonville, and Houston will all consider themselves to be playoff contenders.
ProSet Proclaims:Jeff Fisher needs his interior defensive linemen to cover the departure of DT Albert Haynesworth in free agency to Washington. DE Jevon Kearse is over the hill. DE Kyle Van Den Bosch has a great motor, but is injury prone. LB Keith Bulluck is a 10 year veteran. If the Titans can’t stuff the middle, last season’s 13 wins will be impossible to replicate. On the other side of the ball, Kerry Collins and Vince Young will dominate the headlines. The miserable performance by Collins in the AFC Divisional Playoff loss means that goodwill is scarce in Nashville. Ten wins would be a very good effort from this staff.
Fearless Prediction: 9-7 with a QB controversy
Big Dog Barks: It’s clear that there are two big questions facing Tennessee this season. The first is how will their defense hold up with the absence of DT Albert Haynesworth. A lot has been made of the Titans’ running game last season and while the dual options afforded by RB Chris Johnson and RB LenDale White are an essential part of last season’s impressive 13-3 record, it’s foolish to ignore the contribution their defense made to that record. It’s simply a lot easier to win games if your opposition are not provided opportunities to score. Defense wins games, and this year Tennessee has a big question hanging over their defense. In particular the defensive line need to have a big start to the season. They need to make a statement in their first few games to remind every opposing team why they should be feared this year. If they can do that, then the second big question the team faces is a little less of a problem… who is their QB? This year will see more competition for attention as Collins and Young compete for starting rights. In reality this issue just won’t matter if the Titans’ defense can’t reproduce their dominance of last year.
ProSet Proclaims: I’ve been down on the Colts since they blew my money on the 2008 SNF opener. Tony Dungy, despite being perceived as a defensive coach, has bequeathed poor run defenses even in eras of success. Despite the weekly panegyric to S Bob Sanders, the Colts seem to me to remain weak against the run. DT Raheem Brock is not going to collapse interior running lanes. To beat the Colts in the Manning era, the recipe is simple. Run the ball effectively on first down and shorten the game. Manning will force passes and turn it over. Tennessee has been doing this at least since the 1999 AFC Divisional Playoff. The cross over with the NFC West will provide more wins than tough divisional contests.
Fearless Prediction: 11-5 with a Week 17 loss costing a first round bye
Big Dog Barks: Even with the change in coaching staff, it’s unlikely that the Colts will bring anything particularly new to football this season. Unfortunately for them that probably means that they’ll also bring a season plagued by injuries with them this year. There’s little point in detailed analysis at this stage, if you’re a Colts fan, just stock lots of beer to drown your sorrows, buy stock in your local sports medicine clinic and prepare yourself for the inevitable rebuilding required over the next few years.
Foolhardy Guess: 9-7 with major injury problems all season long
ProSet Proclaims: The small market Jags need a bounce after last season’s 5-11 record. With several veterans departed, including RB Fred Taylor, Jacksonville is desperate to keep QB David Garrard healthy. The passer depth is pitiful. Shunned Rams legend WR Torry Holt will be useless without protection for Garrard. It was no surprise to see JAX select two offensive tackles in the first 40 overall picks. If early season losses arrive, it could be blackout central for the Jaguars market, despite the covered seats. Wayne Weaver will not appreciate the pessimism, but Jags fans, despite Weaver’s marketing efforts, know this will be a tough season. Jack Del Rio bet his career on Garrard. This season will be time enough to judge.
Fearless Prediction: 6-10 with a coaching change at season’s end
Big Dog Barks: WR Torry Holt joins the team as QB Garrard’s primary target and that should help things on the offensive side of the ball. Even so, it remains that the relatively young defensive team is really going to need to step up and get the job done when they’re on the field. The goal for the Jaguars this season needs to be to protect Garrard and Holt, keeping them out of situations in which they need to take major risks. If Garrard can get the protection he needs and the defense can produce some consistently good performances then the Jags might just wind up making some noise this season.
Foolhardy Guess: 7-9 but don’t worry – it’s unlikely anybody will be watching anyway
ProSet Proclaims: Zero playoff games and a failed No 1 overall QB. It is a bit sad to think that the highlight of the seven seasons of Texans football was their opening game: a nationally televised win over Dallas. The franchise is best known for moments such as last season’s disastrous loss at home to Indianapolis. No 1 overall pick DE Mario Williams will need to pressure the passer, as the Houston secondary is weak. It goes without saying that QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson need to fire, although you could not pay me enough to be “protected” by the Houston offensive line. Gary Kubiak needs to make that work; otherwise he’ll be another footnote in Texans futility.
Fearless Prediction: 5-11 with Allen Stanford appointed to manage team finances
Big Dog Barks: Last season the Texans continued their lacklustre performance with a disappointing 8-8 record. However, it is important to remember that there were several disruptive factors in the early weeks of the 2008 season, in fact Houston had a great streak in the second half of the season and managed to claw their way back from an abysmal start. If they can improve their consistency on both sides of the ball, but especially become more productive on offense, then this could finally be their year. Most importantly for their offensive efforts is to understand the simple principle of converting yards gained into points won. It sounds simple, but pounding the ground close to the goal is going to need to be a major focus for this team. Victory is founded on this sort of simplicity.
Foolhardy Guess: 11-5 with a surprise draftee becoming an instant superstar
