Week 2 Instant Analysis MNF edition

September 18th, 2007 1:11 am
by Pro Set

Washington 20-12 Philadelphia

The Philadelphia defence simply could not sustain pressure on the Washington offence. The WSH running game did exactly what the preview called for: controlled first down situations and tried to hit the trick play (half back option pass on 1st & 10 at PHI 22 with 7:04 left in the 3rd quarter). The speed of WR Santana Moss drove the PHI secondary deep and opened up run-after-catch yards for TE Calvin Cooley as an outlet for QB Jason Campbell (16-29 [209; TD; INT]).

Combining this with a Philadelphia offense that lacked big play capability, especially in the second half, the Redskins were able to win the game by playing fully within their capabilities.

Yesterday, New England QB Tom Brady displayed amazing accuracy as the Patriots blasted the Chargers. In the final 2 minutes, on 3rd & 6 from the WSH 8, Eagles QB Donovan McNabb (28-46 [240]) missed WR Kevin Curtis on a quick out at the goal line that would have allowed PHI a chance to tie the game with a 2 pt conversion.

All throughout the match, the PHI offence lacked punch and failed to dominate. The injury to TE LJ Smith nullified Smith as a passing threat whilst WR Reggie Brown looks like a solid 3rd receiver at best. NFL starting WRs need to get more separation than the PHI players did.

WSH took some good lessons from Week 1 in recognising that McNabb is far less mobile than previous seasons. Since PHI lacked a true deep threat, as noted above, WSH played good tight coverage and trusted S Sean Taylor and S Levon Landry to clean up anything that got behind the corners and linebackers.

Despite their stilted output, PHI was still in a position to score the requisite TD at the end of the game. To demonstrate how McNabb is not near his best at the moment, examine his decision making on 2nd & 2 from the WSH 41 with 3:15 remaining in the game. WSH dropped 8 defenders in coverage, fearful of the big play on 2nd & short. McNabb threw the ball deep where it was WR Greg Lewis (who has appeared to have lost his big play ability from 2004 and 2005) and 3 WSH defenders. The ensuing 3rd & 2 was a telegraphed rush for a 3 yard loss (causing PHI to burn a precious timeout) and the drive, despite converting on 4th & 5, never regained momentum.

I felt that, on the other side of the game, the WSH offence was run well by QB Jason Campbell. As well as Campbell played, including a couple of huge 3rd down conversions on consecutive drives in the second half that brought 10 points, I thought that WSH FB Mike Sellers was also deeply influential. His lead blocking was superb. He really took on the linebacker in the hole and allowed RB Clinton Portis and RB Ladell Betts to gain momentum and carry tacklers forward. Some of the leads off tackle or over guard were beautifully executed.

For the Eagles, next week becomes a must win and I have to say that their defence looked surprisingly vulnerable. On reflection, having reviewed the play-by-play, I put this down to the solid WSH play calling that never gave the Eagles a key to what was coming. As long as the tight running game works on first down, WSH is going to be a handful for most teams.

Posted in Monday Night Football, Week 2 Instant Analysis, Washington Redskins, Philadelphia Eagles, NFL Franchises/Teams, Game, Analysis, NFL | No Comments »

Week 2 Instant Analysis

September 17th, 2007 9:13 am
by Pro Set

San Diego 14-38 New England

When assessing an NFL game, first impressions are important. As I looked over the depth charts before Sunday Night Football, the overriding issue was how the San Diego secondary would cope if the pressure did not immediately get to Brady. The brutal truth was that the New England passing game was too good. It often appears that QB Tom Brady could stop and drop-kick a field goal from the pocket that the New England O-line creates. Anyway, let’s focus on the first half, which was in all facets decisive.

The formula which let to the devastating first half NE offensive display was simple: pocket protection and passing accuracy. It sometimes seems simplistic to attribute the highest level of the game with nothing more than the skill that every QB seeks: accuracy. Yet it is consistent accuracy on a range of throws that sets the professionals apart. It is all about doing the simple things well every time. If you think that it is over-simplistic, contrast the first play that the Chargers ran from scrimmage with their TD drive to open the second half.

In analysing this overmatched contest, the most pressing concern is how other team are going to attack the New England offense. The sheer presence of WR Randy Moss takes away a safety. This severely limits the blitzing flexibility of the defense. I cannot see any NFL defensive coordinator risking pure man-to-man on Moss. There will be a sizeable cushion whenever a 2-deep system is not being used. If you disagree, watch the 3^rd quarter Moss TD rec on CB Drayton Florence, who might now agree that he cannot cover Moss alone. It will be fascinating to see how Buffalo decides to defend the Patriots next Sunday.

From the San Diego perspective, I was very disappointed that the Chargers did not try to exploit the absence of DE Richard Seymour and SS Rodney Harrison in the decisive first half. QB Philip Rivers was slightly off last week, and perhaps Chargers coach Norv Turner wanted him to throw early to gain confidence. That is the only rationalisation that I can deliver, because the NE defense, as it proved, drains, rather than supplies, confidence to opposing QBs. In his better than average call on NBC, John Madden made great points about the NE front seven disguising their true assignments pre-snap. Disguise and subterfuge are far less effective against straight ahead, fast hitting running plays. Strength and speed cannot be ‘coached up’ , so to speak, and with SD possessing top level speed and strength, the coaches should have let them test it against the Pats.

I would have rushed RB LaDainian Tomlinson off tackle behind FB Lorenzo Neal, followed by RB Michael Turner on third down draws or slams. Even if this failed for two or three drives, it slows the pace of the game, reduces turnover risk, and even by default sets up play action to TE Antonio Gates. The high point of this was when SD recovered a NE fumbled kick-off return just after an SD touchdown. Norv Turner could not resist trying the deep passing play from the NE 31, and Rivers was sacked. And then Rivers was sacked again. Only on 3^rd & 30 did we finally see the first screen pass to Tomlinson. Surely this was not to be saved for 3^rd & 30? It was an all-around poor offensive game-plan from the SD offensive staff.

In summary, it has to be back to basics for SD next week at Lambeau. My early feeling is that SD will be a great value bet. For NE, it will be truly be a case of avoiding complacency against Buffalo. And that, again, is what separates truly professional teams: they win when they should, as well as when they merely have a good chance. NE might be so professional that the Patriots push the rules to the limits, but if NE were a listed company, just like many soccer clubs are in Europe, would shareholders expect anything else?

Posted in LaDainian Tomlinson, Rodney Harrison, Richard Seymour, Antonio Gates, Drayton Florence, Philip Rivers, Dick Jauron, John Madden, Week 2 Instant Analysis, Norv Turner, Bill Belichick, NFL on NBC, Analysis, Game, San Diego Chargers, New England Patriots, NFL Coaches, Randy Moss, Tom Brady, NFL | No Comments »

Week 2 Instant Analysis

September 16th, 2007 10:00 pm
by Pro Set

Dallas 37-20 Miami

The final score was not indicative of the real struggle that occurred in this game. Miami opened the game with a solid rushing attack. Clearly the aim was to set up deep passing plays. QB Trent Green slightly under-threw WR Marty Booker on the left sideline fly route and CB Anthony Henry, using inside trail technique, was able to pick off the under-throw because he was allowing for safety help over the top. After this incident the Dolphins switched the emphasis in their passing game.

Dallas built a 10-3 lead with long, sustained drives that brought about evident tiredness in the Miami pursuit. It became clear that when either defense did not force a 3 & out or produce a takeaway, it would be hard to sustain consistent pass pressure and pursuit.

The MIA FG drive in the final two mins of the first half was a vindication for the changing focus of the MIA passing attack. Knowing that DAL would respect Chambers and Booker by defending over the top, the Dolphins ran plenty of intermediate curls and come backs that enabled them to move the ball. With S Roy Williams often nosing around the line, where he is best (more on that later), DAL seemed to have a consistent three deep shell on first down, with S Ken Hamlin playing centerfield, forcing the DAL corners to surrender large first down cushions, hence the deep curls. This is where CB Terence Newman was sorely missed.

DAL 10-6 MIA (halftime)

With MIA taking a 13-10 lead off the opening drive of the 3rd quarter, by again utilizing first down passing, DAL looked in trouble. This trouble increased when DAL was forced to punt, trailling 13-10 still. I thought that the most important series of the game was the one that followed the DAL punt. The Cowboys gave up an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on the punt coverage (player not immediately returning inbounds after being forced out). Having given up two straight scoring drives, the Cowboys held the Dolphins to a 3 & out.

Credit to the FOX commentators (Kenny Albert and Daryl Johnston) for pre-emptively predicting peril for MIA when a penalty forced the Fish to re-punt the ball. From the moment that WR Patrick Crayton broke the first wave, the momentum swung.

DAL QB Tony Romo (14-29; 186yds; 2TD) took over the game completely. His pocket presence was outstanding. I said in the preview that Romo will get the ball off rather than take the sack, and on this drive we saw two consecutive examples. On 2nd & 8 from the MIA 14, Romo threw the ball off his back foot to Crayton, breaking towards the endzone on the reverse scramble drill, and drawing the pass interference penalty. Poor work from FOX here as Johnston failed to explain that, even though the penalized action was by MIA CB Travis Daniels in holding the jersey of Crayton, the fact that this occurrred after the pass was thrown caused the penalty to be assessed as pass interference. This is a significant benefit to the offense since PI gives a 1st down a the spot of the foul, whereas defensive holding is 5 yards from the previous spot and a 1st down. On the next play Romo was corralled and almost brought down by DT Vonnie Holliday on the play action fake, but threw the pass anyway just before his knees hit the ground. So always expect Romo to release the ball, but this will mean more fumbles and more deflected INT opportunities throughout the season. When it works, however, it looks talismanic.

With DAL having regained the lead (DAL 17-13 MIA) it was crucial for MIA to answer. With the DAL corners playing closer due the MIA intermediate passing attack as described above, the MIA offense sensibly looked for the quick separation patterns. The slant or skinny post is always the best, for it is hard for the CB, once the WR has inside position, to get between the receiver and the ball. So Trent Green attempted the skinny post to Chambers but he overthrew it and S Ken Hamlin, again coming over from deep centrefield, intercepted. DAL turned this takeaway into a FG that gave the Cowboys a touchdown lead.

With MIA on the ropes, Green needed to lead them on a solid drive. On the second play of the ensuing possession, a fumbled exchange from C to QB bled the belief from MIA. This was where the game was lost. MIA simply got too impatient and thought that they had cracked the DAL defence by their 1st down throwing.

DAL took the turnover in for for another FG, and again it was poor work by FOX that no-one mentioned that the ball went through off the upright. In the NFL, when the kickers usually kick from straight in front, it is very rare for a ball to strike the upright and go through. If you don’t believe me, ask Ryan Longwell, whose final seconds game winning FG attempt hit the upright and missed at DET today. The key to DAL getting in range on this drive was the use of WR Terrell Owens on a crossing route on 3rd & 7 that picked up 12 yards. In my opinion, Owens is best when he can get moving, take a relatively easy catch (he dropped several passes earlier in the game), and maximise the run after catch yardage.

The 10 point lead was never seriously threatened, and the Cowboys improved to 2-0, whilst the Dolphins remained winless.

DAL 37-20 MIA (final)

Overall, I though that Romo was superb, and although I fear that he will have multiple turnover games not infrequently, he showed today that when he’s on, it translates into wins. Don’t be seduced by the big rushing number of DAL, a lot of it was garbage time all or nothing plays (where the first line of defense is the only line). DAL would be well advised to note the ease with which MIA moved the ball and the fact that the edge pass rush was very quiet.

Miami showed flashes of offensive life, but cannot rely on the pass to the extent that became evident today. Also obvious is that 5 turnovers (4 INT) will not bring many wins, despite what Detroit fans might think. New C Samson Satele looks strong and does have long hair, but his poor snap caused the 3rd quarter lost fumble on the exchange, and that C-QB relationship (the most important in football, since it happens every play) must develop quickly. I did not think that Tim Ruddy would get a mention, but the Dolphins could have used him today. The bright spot for MIA is that Chambers and Booker remain a potent combination, although I am sure that Trent Green misses the central Kansas City target of TE Tony Gonzalez, since MIA TE David Martin is not a major threat. MIA can recover more easily than any other 0-2 team, since both losses were inter-conference.

Posted in Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Ken Hamlin, Marty Booker, Anthony Henry, Patrick Crayton, Travis Daniels, Ryan Longwell, David Martin, Tony Gonzalez, Tim Ruddy, Samson Satele, Week 2 Instant Analysis, NFL on FOX, Terrell Owens, Kansas City Chiefs, Tony Romo, NFL on television, Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions, Vonnie Holliday, Chris Chambers, Terence Newman, Roy Williams (DAL), Trent Green, NFL | No Comments »