NFL Week 11 Analysis: Tennessee @ Denver

November 20th, 2007 1:04 am
by Big Dog

This was a tough week for the Tennessee Titans, and particularly for their emerging QB Vince Young. Young had a career day passing and was also the Titans’ lead rusher for the day, unfortunately this stellar effort wasn’t enough to bring home the win.

The Denver Broncos were tonight competing to meet theSan Diego Chargers at the top of the division with a 5-5 record. Broncos QB Jay Cutler had a career high 137.0 passer rating for the night and it was certainly deserved as he made several big plays to give Denver an early lead.

The evolving story that is Vince Young continued tonight as he showed considerable poise in the pocket, often holding onto the ball and making crucial passes. For the most part, Young only ran when it was the best option available on the field and managed to turn it into a showcase of how to play the scrambling QB position.

Unfortunately the Titans were let down by several dropped passes and then succumbed to the pressure created by Denver’s mounting lead. That’s not to take anything away from the Broncos, who have been a much more cohesive unit in the last couple of weeks, with players clearly taking more responsibility for the performance of the team as a whole.

The personal highlights of the night came from Denver Head Coach Mike Shanahan with two of his timeout calls. Tonight, the man who gave the NFL the idea for “icing” a kicker called a timeout with 14 seconds left at the end of the 2nd quarter. The ball was snapped and kicked with Tennessee K Rob Bironas missing the 56 yard attempt. Shanahan’s timeout gave Bironas a second chance which was good.

The second point scoring timeout from the Broncos came about halfway through the 3rd quarter. Young was scrambling for the endzone and stretched out, attempting to break the plane with the ball before being forced out of bounds. It wasn’t ruled a touchdown on the field and while the Titans staff were deciding whether to challenge the ruling, the next play was snapped, with Young again scrambling for the endzone in the corner and coming up short. Fortunately for Tennessee Head Coach Jeff Fisher, the Broncos linebackers had called a timeout prior to the snap, which gave him time to challenge the previous play. On review, the call on the field was reversed as Young was ruled to have broken the plane and scored the touchdown prior to being forced out of bounds.

This was an entertaining game of football and shows that Denver have a lot to look forward to if they can carry this momentum into the end of the season. By the same token, the Titans and Vince Young are improving measurably week by week and while this season isn’t likely to be their breakout year, Young is establishing himself as a passer, a leader and a QB, which suggests that Tennessee will be a force to be reckoned with in coming years.

Posted in Tennessee Titans, Mike Shanahan, Vince Young, Jeff Fisher, Rob Bironas, Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos, Monday Night Football, Analysis, Game, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL Coaches, San Diego Chargers, NFL | No Comments »

The AFC so far

October 4th, 2007 9:43 am
by NFL Freak

For most NFL teams, the season is already 25% complete. Let’s examine what’s happened so far in the AFC.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills (1-3)

A season-saving divisional win (vs NYJ) has given a spark to the Bills. The only NFL team based in New York can build on that momentum when Dallas visits Orchard Park for the first MNF game in Buffalo in 13 seasons. The Buffalo folk prefer day games, since so many of their fans have such long car trips to the game. Expect the Bills to be out of contention by the halfway point of the season. Dick Jauron is a nice guy, but he just can’t win playoff games, so there is no future in that relationship.

Miami Dolphins (0-4)

What a contrast for the former San Diego coordinators. MIA Coach Cam Cameron finally gets some heat applied after a terrible loss at home to Oakland. Despite acquiring a veteran (and proven) QB in Trent Green, I think that the Dolphins are just too old on the defensive side of the ball. If I’m Wayne Huizenga, I would ask why LB Zach Thomas and DE Jason Taylor ought not to be traded to real contenders in order to beef up the team in next year’s draft. Sorry, Dolphins fans, but this season will not extend into January. Expect a mid-season rally of sorts, but 0-4 in the AFC is irreparable damage.

New England Patriots (4-0)

The standout team in the entire NFL has been the Patriots. Courtesy of the overzealous hysteria about Spygate, the Patriots have clearly bonded and look to be too good. I missed the Salem witch trials, but it’s always refreshing to see history repeating itself. I’m sure, however, that QB Tom Brady is fired more by the crushing disappointment of consecutive seasons with playoff losses. An NFL career is only ever one play away from ending (as we unfortunately saw with BUF LB Kevin Everett). Most Patriot players are set for life. It is the diminishing window of opportunity that drives them. NE is the clear favourite for now. If Roger Goodell had some steel, he’d instruct the Patriots to print post-season tickets now.

New York Jets (1-3)

It’s been a disappointing 4 years since QB Chad Pennington led the Jets to the AFC East title. With RB Thomas Jones combining with RB Leon Washington, I expected the Jets to be able to run the ball well. Pennington needs good play action to be able to hit WR Laveranues Coles. The loss last Sunday at Buffalo will really hurt. I just cannot see the Jets grabbing an AFC Wild Card without 10 wins. And I don’t think that the Jets can go 9-3 from here with games against Dallas, New England and Baltimore still to go.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (2-2)

This is the one of the most disappointing 2-2 starts in the NFL. The Ravens are 0-2 in the division and will need to sweep Pittsburgh to win the AFC North. QB Steve McNair looks like he’s just had one campaign too many. There are only so many big plays that SS Ed Reed can make. This team has issues on both sides of the ball. As for Brian Billick, his 2001 axing of Trent Dilfer in favour of a passing philosophy with QB Elvis Grbac should have already led to his removal. The Ravens are in decline.

Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)

Clearly the Bengals have issues on defense. QB Carson Palmer has too much pressure on him to produce scores on every drive. This team will give up at least 24 points per game on average. With RB Rudi Johnson not being a true breakaway threat, this means that Palmer needs to have 35-40 TD passes this season. He might just get there. Whether the Bengals are playoff-calibre or not will be determined by their series against the NFC West. If Cincy cannot dominate a division without a standout team, the show is over. Remember, WR Chris Henry is nominally able to play after midseason (assuming Goodell reinstates him). Henry is better than the nickel corner for most teams. Anything less than a playoff win is a failure for Cincinnati.

Cleveland Browns (2-2)

After an opening week that exceeded even the most dismal prognostications, the Browns are now 2-1 in the division. QB Derek Anderson has been the man of the moment. It also appears that Cleveland has avoided the receiver curse in the draft with WR Braylon Edwards. I’m just not sure what to make of this team. In Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow, Cleveland has top class weapons. Unfortunately for Browns fans, I think that the Dawg Pound will be empty come January. The Browns have 3 divisional road games to come, as well as facing the Patriots. A winning record is possible, and I think that a winning record will save Romeo Crennel from the chop.

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)

It’s hard to get a read on the Steelers. They key will be winning divisional games. Fortunately for Pittsburgh, it seems as thought the Steelers can rely on the rest of the AFC North knocking each other off. QB Ben Roethlisberger is the best game management QB in the division. Unlike the other teams in the AFC North, Pittsburgh does not have that brittle edge that can lead to implosion. I see PIT going at least 4-2 in the division, and 3-1 against the AFC East. Splitting their other games brings out a 10-6 record, so expect PIT to make the playoffs.

AFC South

Houston Texans (2-2)

For the first time in my life, I backed the Houston Texans (-3) at Atlanta last Sunday. Despite my retained bitterness, I am still impressed by the 2-2 start. The struggles against JAX (against whom HOU has a great record) and TEN will be fascinating. I like this division as the supplier of two playoff teams. For the Texans, QB Matt Schaub must continue to improve. Unless RB Ahman Green can prove me wrong and show that his best is not yet a distant memory, I think that the Texans can only win through the air. WR Andre Davis will need to stay healthy. I think that the Texans will run out of steam and finish 8-8, but at least HOU season ticket holders will have meaningful football to watch come December.

Indianapolis Colts (3-0)

The Colts are looking good without making too much noise. The Colts are already 2-0 in the division. I can’t see them losing to any team from the NFC either. QB Peyton Manning is now truly an elite NFL QB. I was one of the last doubters. The division is theirs if the Colts defensive front four can stay healthy. The loss of DT Anthony McFarland will be keenly felt. DE Dwight Freeney is deadly when the Colts have the lead in the second half. I still think, despite all the hype about S Bob Sanders, that teams can run on Indy with success. With the Chargers struggling, all signs point to another AFC decider between the Colts and the Patriots. The venue will matter.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1)

The bombshell that began the JAX season has proven to be successful so far. QB David Garrard has led the Jags to wins at Denver and verus Atlanta. JAX coach Jack Del Rio will still be upset that the inevitable teething problems of the Byron Leftwich issue spilled over into an opening day home divisional loss. If JAX misses the playoffs by a game, he will bitterly regret not acting earlier. For mine, RB Fred Taylor is in his final effective season. Between Taylor and RB Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX has to get back to pounding the ball, and then stopping the run through DT John Henderson and DT Marcus Stroud. Remember, however, that TEN ran for over 200 yards at JAX. With JAX already having had their bye, injuries will hurt them more than most as the season progresses.

Tennessee Titans (2-1)

The Titans are looking like the most improved team in the NFL. When one recalls their steamrolling finish to 2006, however, this is to be expected. QB Vince Young has clearly brought a sense of belief and excitement to the team. His passing is still developing, but he has the intangible quality of competitiveness that separates good players from winning players. I have been most impressed with the TEN defense. As long as the Titans can get pressure on the passer with only 4 down linemen, they will win games. With winnable games against AFC West teams and a weak NFC South, TEN should get 10 wins. The crucial games are, obviously, the divisional rivalries. If TEN goes 4-2 in the AFC South, expect them to be returning to the playoffs for the first time since the 2003 season.

AFC West

Denver Broncos (2-2)

Denver have given themselves a reliable start to the season and can build on their early success. Given their performance so far, you have to like the Broncos as they prepare to face the San Diego Chargers this Sunday. There’s no question that Mike Shanahan has his work cut out for him and will need to build more consistency into the team on both sides of the ball, but the Broncos are a real playoff chance.

Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)

The Chiefs crushed the San Diego Chargers last week, and it’s hard to tell if this is more an indication of the Chiefs’ form, or the Chargers’. QB Damon Huard seems to be settling in well and the Chiefs have made some ground on their passing game. That said, there’s still a long way to go till the playoffs - Chiefs fans, don’t hold your breath.

Oakland Raiders (2-2)

Oakland haven’t had the convincing start many expected. While they’ve had some strong wins and individual performances (including Daunte Culpepper against Miami), Oakland will need to win convincingly against the San Diego Chargers in order to convince the rest of us that they’re a genuine prospect.

San Diego Chargers (1-3)

San Diego have by far and away been the shock disappointment of the season so far. Expectations have been high following their 14-2 record of last season. It was big news when Norv Turner was brought in as a replacement coach for a successful team. Many Chargers fans can now justifiably question the sanity of that decision. Despite Turner’s reputation as an offensive specialist, the Chargers have comprehensively failed to ignite that half of their game. Star RB LaDainian Tomlinson has struggled to get things going, and there are serious questions to be asked about QB Philip Rivers’ decision making. At this point it’s difficult to see San Diego being able to realistically aim for much more than trying to finish the season with a winning record. Especially now that they’ve marked themselves as the weak team in the division. Everyone will be gunning for them.

Posted in Fred Taylor, Maurice Jones-Drew, David Garrard, John Henderson, Anthony McFarland, Jack Del Rio, Marcus Stroud, Vince Young, Jacksonville Jaguars, Dick Jauron, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Chad Pennington, Tennessee Titans, Bob Sanders, Dwight Freeney, Leon Washington, Ed Reed, Laveranues Coles, Thomas Jones, Daunte Culpepper, Jason Taylor, Brian Billick, Rudi Johnson, Andre Davis, Ahman Green, Braylon Edwards, Derek Anderson, Romeo Crennel, Kellen Winslow, Mike Shanahan, Pittsburgh Steelers, Matt Schaub, San Diego Chargers, Damon Huard, Kansas City Chiefs, Tom Brady, New England Patriots, Peyton Manning, NFL Players, Analysis, Game, Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans, NFL Franchises/Teams, Indianapolis Colts, NFL Coaches, Carson Palmer, Cam Cameron, Trent Green, Norv Turner, LaDainian Tomlinson, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Zach Thomas, Oakland Raiders, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Steve McNair, Buffalo Bills, Kevin Everett, Denver Broncos, NFL | No Comments »

The hot seat - it burns, burns, burns

October 3rd, 2007 6:35 am
by Big Dog

We said it last time, and now it’s more true than ever, Norv Turner has to be grimacing with his butt firmly planted on the hottest seat in the NFL right now. So far this season San Diego have failed to fire on offense, in spite of Turner’s reputation as an offensive specialist. The Chargers are now languishing at 4th in the AFC West and have already lost more games than they did last season. Following the high expectations set last season, if the Chargers don’t turn things around and soon, Norv’s seat is set to spontaneously combust.

While it might not look like it on the surface, Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb must be feeling things heat up a little bit too. So far the Eagles have played four games using the same basic plan with little adjustment for each opposing team. Of those four games the Eagles have won only one, and while that game was won in spectacular fashion, it wasn’t a division game. In fact Philadelphia are now locked in a desperate struggle to salvage their season given the fact that Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, Wade Phillips and the Dallas Cowboys seem to be pretty content just racking up one win after the next.

Over in San Francisco somebody should tell Mike Nolan that Russell Crowe has already proven that Armani suits don’t win championships (his team made the playoffs and lost in the first round). There’s plenty to be said for looking good while you win, but you need to be winning before you can start worrying about looking good.

Cam Cameron also has to be starting to feel the heat in his first season for the Dolphins. Even though nobody had huge expectations for Miami, they’ve managed to disappoint anyway. Miami fans have to be hoping that Cam’s track record with successful QBs soon bears fruit with Trent Green.

What do you think? Hit us up in the comments and tell us whose seat is heating up and why.

Posted in San Francisco 49ers, Andy Reid, NFL Coaches, Trent Green, Cam Cameron, Wade Phillips, Mike Nolan, Norv Turner, Donovan McNabb, Dallas Cowboys, NFL Franchises/Teams, Miami Dolphins, Game, NFL Players, Tony Romo, San Diego Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, Terrell Owens, NFL | No Comments »

Do I smell BBQ (or is that the Hot Seat)?

September 23rd, 2007 8:07 am
by Big Dog

Norv Turner inherited a healthy football team. Arguably a team in its prime. A team with a 14-2 record in the previous season, running a strong offense. In fact, an offense that he himself helped to implement. Turner’s reputation is as an offensive specialist, so what on earth is going wrong? This is the question in everyone’s mind, if not on their lips, following the Chargers’ crushing defeat at the hands of the New England Patriots last week. Norv’s seat may not be completely hot yet, but it’s definitely warming up.

The Miami Dolphins at New York Jets game is a battle of the bottom order. Both teams are 0-2 and desperate for that first win. Both have struggled to put together a consistent offense and to contain the run on defense. Turnovers are also an issue. The Jets are desperate to see QB Chad Pennington return from an ankle injury and settle down their offense. This is at the expense of a brave fourth quarter from backup quarterback Kellen Clemens.

This game is crucial for both teams, with the losing coach inheriting an 0-3 start to the season and one of the hottest seats in the NFL. Expect Eric Mangini and Cam Cameron to lay it all on the line here. In many ways, this will be the defining game of the season for both teams.

Posted in Cam Cameron, Eric Mangini, Norv Turner, New York Jets, Kellen Clemens, Chad Pennington, NFL Coaches, New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, Game, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, San Diego Chargers, NFL | No Comments »

NFL Fantasy Football Week 3

September 21st, 2007 9:57 am
by Big Dog

One of the most intriguing matchups of the week is San Diego at Green Bay. The Chargers have a lot to prove, if they want to live up to the incredibly high expectations that their 14-2 record established last season, they need to win their next 14 straight.

As you may know, that’s not the kind of crazy talk prediction I’m willing to participate in. That said, San Diego have to make something happen this week to have any realistic chance of salvaging their season.

At the same time Brett Favre and the Packers have won their last six games. It’s easy to forget last season, and usually I’d be telling you that form last season doesn’t provide a solid basis for this season. Even so, everyone knows that last year the Packers were working with a very young side that lacked experience at the NFL level. By the end of last season we were seeing this team start to come good.

This late season form has carried into this year with the Packers putting up strong performances in the first two weeks. Last week Tom Brady, Randy Moss and the New England Offensive Line demonstrated that San Diego are vulnerable in the air. The Chargers’ secondary leaves a lot to be desired and it won’t take much separation for the passing game to open up. I’d be expecting good numbers this week from Brett Favre and his main receiving options, Donald Driver and James Jones.

Interestingly, I also think that this matchup will be important for LaDainian Tomlinson. Last week LT was held to only 43 yards from 18 attempts. It’s possible to argue that he hasn’t really lit up the field so far this season. If San Diego is to have a chance, they need their league MVP to do his thing. Expect an extra effort from Tomlinson this week.

Denver Broncos kicker, Jason Elam, has been the deciding factor in the last two weeks for the Broncos. It could well come down to field position and kicking again as the Jacksonville Jaguars come to play in Denver.

Atlanta play host to the Carolina Panthers this week. Panthers DE Julius Peppers will be looking to build on his fearsome reputation as a Quarterback’s nightmare. The Falcons have already given up 13 sacks this season and you can bet Peppers will be looking to push that total ever higher.

Good luck with week 3.

Posted in LaDainian Tomlinson, Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos, Jacksonville Jaguars, Donald Driver, Julius Peppers, Jason Elam, James Jones, Randy Moss, Tom Brady, NFL Franchises/Teams, Carolina Panthers, Game, NFL Players, Brett Favre, New England Patriots, San Diego Chargers, Green Bay Packers, NFL | No Comments »

Patriots pay attention

September 20th, 2007 7:09 am
by Big Dog

It’s true, real Patriots pay attention. They pay attention to all sorts of details. Things like formations, patterns and (of course) defensive signals. In the last two weeks, the Patriots have garnered a lot of attention for paying attention to these sorts of things. In fact, it’s been one of those things that is so talked about, it’s actually started to encroach on the game, as Pro Set found out on Monday Night.

It’s amazing to me that this story still hasn’t gone away, that people are still running around complaining that the punishment meted out wasn’t harsh enough, that it doesn’t punish the Patriots this season, that it must be distracting the Patriots from getting on with their season.

In fact it’s even been extended this week with some commentators now suggesting the Patriots are angered and predicting they’ll go undefeated this season. Charles P. Pierce suggests that New England now have a cause to rally around, a symbolic crusade that will bind them together and render them unstoppable. That the rest of the league is in trouble, because now the Patriots are not only talented and professional, now they’re motivated.

Now, when I first heard of this prediction I was as enraged as the proverbial Patriot. In this day and age, with a league this competitive, with the gruelling schedule, with the risk of key injuries, with the thousands of tiny things that can affect the outcome on gameday, it’s virtually impossible for any team to go undefeated. There’s a reason that it’s only been done once, 35 years ago, it’s hard. So to run around after week 2 proclaiming the Patriots unbeatable, well that’s just crazy talk. I don’t care how comprehensively the Patriots demolished the San Diego Chargers.

Of course, crazy talk sells and that’s good business. And, if you’re going to make ridiculous claims about the Patriots’ season, you might as well make them early. After all, if it comes true you look like a genius and if it doesn’t come true you get to claim that you were making a “Hail Mary Prediction”.

In any case, it doesn’t really matter what sort of prediction Pierce is making and it matters even less what I think of that crazy talk prediction. What matters is that in a week when everybody in football was paying attention to anything but football, the only people paying attention to their preparation for the week’s game were the Patriots. If they keep up that level of attention and concentration, then maybe they really will be unbeatable.

Posted in New England Patriots, Monday Night Football, San Diego Chargers, NFL Franchises/Teams, Game, NFL | No Comments »

Week 2 Instant Analysis

September 17th, 2007 9:13 am
by Pro Set

San Diego 14-38 New England

When assessing an NFL game, first impressions are important. As I looked over the depth charts before Sunday Night Football, the overriding issue was how the San Diego secondary would cope if the pressure did not immediately get to Brady. The brutal truth was that the New England passing game was too good. It often appears that QB Tom Brady could stop and drop-kick a field goal from the pocket that the New England O-line creates. Anyway, let’s focus on the first half, which was in all facets decisive.

The formula which let to the devastating first half NE offensive display was simple: pocket protection and passing accuracy. It sometimes seems simplistic to attribute the highest level of the game with nothing more than the skill that every QB seeks: accuracy. Yet it is consistent accuracy on a range of throws that sets the professionals apart. It is all about doing the simple things well every time. If you think that it is over-simplistic, contrast the first play that the Chargers ran from scrimmage with their TD drive to open the second half.

In analysing this overmatched contest, the most pressing concern is how other team are going to attack the New England offense. The sheer presence of WR Randy Moss takes away a safety. This severely limits the blitzing flexibility of the defense. I cannot see any NFL defensive coordinator risking pure man-to-man on Moss. There will be a sizeable cushion whenever a 2-deep system is not being used. If you disagree, watch the 3^rd quarter Moss TD rec on CB Drayton Florence, who might now agree that he cannot cover Moss alone. It will be fascinating to see how Buffalo decides to defend the Patriots next Sunday.

From the San Diego perspective, I was very disappointed that the Chargers did not try to exploit the absence of DE Richard Seymour and SS Rodney Harrison in the decisive first half. QB Philip Rivers was slightly off last week, and perhaps Chargers coach Norv Turner wanted him to throw early to gain confidence. That is the only rationalisation that I can deliver, because the NE defense, as it proved, drains, rather than supplies, confidence to opposing QBs. In his better than average call on NBC, John Madden made great points about the NE front seven disguising their true assignments pre-snap. Disguise and subterfuge are far less effective against straight ahead, fast hitting running plays. Strength and speed cannot be ‘coached up’ , so to speak, and with SD possessing top level speed and strength, the coaches should have let them test it against the Pats.

I would have rushed RB LaDainian Tomlinson off tackle behind FB Lorenzo Neal, followed by RB Michael Turner on third down draws or slams. Even if this failed for two or three drives, it slows the pace of the game, reduces turnover risk, and even by default sets up play action to TE Antonio Gates. The high point of this was when SD recovered a NE fumbled kick-off return just after an SD touchdown. Norv Turner could not resist trying the deep passing play from the NE 31, and Rivers was sacked. And then Rivers was sacked again. Only on 3^rd & 30 did we finally see the first screen pass to Tomlinson. Surely this was not to be saved for 3^rd & 30? It was an all-around poor offensive game-plan from the SD offensive staff.

In summary, it has to be back to basics for SD next week at Lambeau. My early feeling is that SD will be a great value bet. For NE, it will be truly be a case of avoiding complacency against Buffalo. And that, again, is what separates truly professional teams: they win when they should, as well as when they merely have a good chance. NE might be so professional that the Patriots push the rules to the limits, but if NE were a listed company, just like many soccer clubs are in Europe, would shareholders expect anything else?

Posted in LaDainian Tomlinson, Rodney Harrison, Richard Seymour, Antonio Gates, Drayton Florence, Philip Rivers, Dick Jauron, John Madden, Week 2 Instant Analysis, Norv Turner, Bill Belichick, NFL on NBC, Analysis, Game, San Diego Chargers, New England Patriots, NFL Coaches, Randy Moss, Tom Brady, NFL | No Comments »

Week 2 Featured Preview

September 15th, 2007 9:53 pm
by Pro Set

San Diego @ New England 8:15pm ET on NBC

Last season San Diego compiled a 14-2 record that culminated in a first round bye and a home divisional playoff. New England defeated San Diego in one of the most compelling and intense NFL games that I have ever seen. When a team sacks a 14-2 coach because of one loss, nothing more needs to be said about how much pain surrounds that playoff exit.

For this monster game, new San Diego coach Norv Turner will look to replicate the overwhelming pressure and crisp ball movement that gave them what appeared to be a winning lead at Qualcomm. It will not be easy. QB Philip Rivers looked a little rusty last week, going 22-31 (190; INT). There has been an injury cloud over some skill players in the SD offense. WR Eric Parker is out; and TE Antonio Gates is probable with a back injury. This all leads to the obvious conclusion that San Diego will struggle to beat the Patriots through the air. For not the first time, the burden will rest upon RB Ladainian Tomlinson to gain the early down yardage that prevents 3^rd and long. Many of his carries last week resembled the infamous outing he had in 2005 at Philadelphia. In this game, however, Tomlinson is also going to be critical as a receiver; a previously huge facet of the SD offense which I thought was underused last week hosting Chicago. With Patriots S Rodney Harrison suspended and with DE Richard Seymour injured, San Diego has to get on top between the tackles. Look for the Patriots to cover Gates with LB Adalius Thomas, and I suspect that LB Rosevelt Colvin will deal with Tomlinson on passing plays.

For San Diego, I would eschew max protect and try to take advantage of NE blitzes with swing passes. This means that Rivers will have to make the perfect pre-snap read of the NE defense, but maybe he can get the inside word on signals from Bill Belichick.

When New England has the ball, San Diego has real problems. The best San Diego strategy to prevent QB Tom Brady from having time to set and throw deep to WR Randy Moss might be the all-out blitz. Brady, however, will hang in the pocket regardless of pressure and will keep his eyes up to spot the open receiver. One other huge game where this strategy was used against New England was by Denver (2005 AFC Divisional Playoff). Even though Denver won, it was only because Brady fractionally missed three or four deep balls where Denver had completely sold out and brought up to 8 players. It follows that San Diego must get central pressure on passing downs through DT Luis Castillo and edge pressure through LB Shawne Merriman. CB Drayton Florence cannot cover Moss alone.

In the running game, it will be the usual story of how much help C Dan Koppen needs to deal with NT Jamal Williams. If Koppen gets help from a guard to stop the initial surge, and then the Patriot interior linemen can get a hat on the SD linebackers, this game is over. The Bears were able to run up the middle last week, and it was fumbles, rather than tackles in the backfield, that generally halted the CHI rushing attack.

Overall, New England appears to have too good an offense not to score at least 20 points. It is hard to see San Diego matching the pace. I think that the best chance for the Chargers is if they get an early lead and goad the Patriots into being overaggressive on both sides of the ball. The home crowd pressure to throw deep to Moss will be there.

But I think that the Patriots are smarter than that, and will patiently run the ball, and trust Brady on third down. Expect New England to win unless the turnover margin is greater than +2 in favour of San Diego.

Posted in Norv Turner, Antonio Gates, Bill Belichick, Shawne Merriman, Denver Broncos, Richard Seymour, Rodney Harrison, NFL Game Previews, Philip Rivers, Drayton Florence, LaDainian Tomlinson, NFL Coaches, Randy Moss, NFL on NBC, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL on television, Analysis, Game, Eric Parker, Philadelphia Eagles, Tom Brady, New England Patriots, Chicago Bears, San Diego Chargers, NFL | No Comments »

Week 2 figures to watch

September 14th, 2007 9:42 am
by Big Dog

Watch out for Adrian Peterson as he takes the field again for the Vikings. His first week performance against Atlanta’s still strong defense was a clear indicator of his potential in the league. The Vikings will be relying on him to increase his workload on the ground, while being a viable receiving option certainly doesn’t hurt one bit.

Shawne Merriman will be looking to make a big impression on Tom Brady as the Chargers and Patriots meet again following last year’s playoffs. There’s plenty for these two top contenders to play for, it’ll just be interesting to see if the entire San Diego roster bring video cameras with them. Also keep an eye out for Bill Belichick pre-game, he’ll probably be looking for someone willing to take a $500,000 bet (Eric Mangini might even be willing to take some of that action).

Posted in Shawne Merriman, Tom Brady, Adrian Peterson, Atlanta Falcons, Eric Mangini, Bill Belichick, New England Patriots, San Diego Chargers, Analysis, Game, Minnesota Vikings, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL | No Comments »

Week 2 Early Notes

September 13th, 2007 10:03 am
by Pro Set

Opening week saw some impressive performances from units of teams, but very few impressive performances from teams as a whole. For regular NFL watchers, by the end of a season you have a fairly good view of what each unit of each team will offer: a statistically valid sample, if you like.

Dangerous as it is from one week, let’s examine some improved units from last season and what they face in Week 2 as they try to prove themselves to be the real deal.

AFC Offense

New England: it might seem ridiculous to focus on the Pats, but the line seems stronger up the middle (remember they could not ground out second half drives in last season’s AFC title game), WR Randy Moss adds a fearsome threat when combined with QB Tom Brady, and RB Laurence Maroney should improve further. I think that San Diego, who visit the Patriots this Sunday (night), has a suspect secondary which they try to hide by over-emphasising the blitz. So the test for New England is simple: protect Brady from the middle push (especially NT Jamal Williams on early downs), as well as protecting him from the edge rush of LB Shawne Merriman and LB Shaun Phillips (especially on 3rd down), and the SD secondary will be truly stretched.

NFC Offense

Detroit: With the addition of Georgia Tech alumnus WR Calvin Johnson, the Lions have a fearsome passing attack. WR Roy Williams seems to be on the path to join the NFL elite. Lions QB Jon Kitna has made a habit of starting seasons well, but fading late (especially Seattle 1999). For the Lions to prove themselves to be the real deal they need to win this home divisional game (vs MIN) this Sunday. Road wins against AFC teams sound impressive, but in reality are never as valuable as a home win in the division. The Vikings defense will be better than the ageing Raiders unit, which last season ranked well due to the fact that other teams took no risks against the Raiders’ defense because there was no need.

Posted in Detroit Lions, Oakland Raiders, Jamal Williams, Jon Kitna, Randy Moss, Tom Brady, Game, Analysis, San Diego Chargers, New England Patriots, NFL | No Comments »