NY Giants @ Denver Thursday Night Football Preview

November 26th, 2009 8:16 am
by Pro Set

Denver is finally doing justice to my pessimism about Broncos football. As noted in last week’s Chargers at Broncos preview, Denver cannot run the ball. Early in the season Denver beat Dallas and New England at Mile High on big play catches from WR Brandon Marshall. The only thing he can hold onto now is RB Knowshon Moreno’s jersey as they fight over fumbles. The bizarre faux start of QB Kyle Orton last week intrigued me. The first thought that I had as Dan Fouts announced that Orton was ‘seriously’ warming up was: McDaniels did not want to register a loss with Orton as his starting QB. At season’s end McDaniels can say ‘we lost games when Orton was not starting due to injury.’ There’s no other explanation. By the way, Dick Enberg needs to retire right now. He obviously cannot see the field properly.

Thanksgiving note: Denver should be thankful that QB Jay Cutler is destroying the Bears, otherwise McDaniels would be under huge pressure right now.

New York played well last Sunday against a good Atlanta offense. The Giants have been hearing it over allowing the game into overtime, but the Falcons played very well in the final quarter. I’d be a much richer man had the Falcons won that toss in OT, as I had the Falcons on the money line. QB Eli Manning threw the ball superbly after the first quarter. But to win at Denver on short rest the Giants will need to run the ball and to throw play action passes. I would like to see some I-Form big (two TEs and two backs). Since Orton has to be expected to play, the Giants need to avoid the temptation to blitz. Orton will be very immobile. This means that seven man coverages (probably Cover 2 zone or Cover 2 man under) will force Orton to execute perfect throws off a bad plant foot. Blitzing allows more margin for error. QB mobility is actually more important against traditional coverage defense, since the QB needs to buy time for receivers to become open. If the Giants do not give up the big play, and keep it clean, the Giants should win.

Thanksgiving note: The last time the Giants visited Denver the world was very different. It was on Monday Night Football (10 September 2001) and the play of the game was an 85 yard punt by NYG P Rodney Williams. It was the first game at Invesco Field. I don’t know what’s planned for pregame tomorrow, but it would be nice to see the victims of 9/11 honoured by the NFL on a nationally televised game.

Posted in Analysis, Brian Dawkins, Denver Broncos, Eli Manning, Game, Jay Cutler, Josh McDaniels, Kyle Orton, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Thanksgiving Day Football, NFL on television, NY Giants, Tom Coughlin | No Comments »

NFLGA Week 7 Sunday Night Football Preview Arizona @ NY Giants

October 25th, 2009 7:02 pm
by Big Dog

Arizona is coming off an impressive win at Seattle. This was set up by a much improved QB Kurt Warner and great hands by the WRs. On the opening drive Arizona faced a succession of third downs and made plays through accurate passing and clean catches. The key, however, was that Warner got the ball out of his hands. Arizona will need positive first down plays. On third and long Warner always holds on waiting for receivers to uncover. Given the problems faced by the Giants last week at the Superdome, if the Giants cannot generate a pass rush they will get shredded.

QB Eli Manning and his offense will need fast start. Look for New York to work out of play action early, before establishing the run. The Cardinals, despite a better effort last Sunday, have struggled with basic defense this season. It has been big plays, rather than consistent pressure, chasing, covering and tackling, that has got the Cardinals off the field. The Giants will back themselves to drag SS Adrian Wilson up to the line to assist the suspect Cardinals run defense, and then hit the big play over the top. If the Cardinals double the wideouts, look for TE Kevin Boss to eat up the intermediate passing game.

Posted in Analysis, Arizona Cardinals, Game, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NY Giants | No Comments »

New England Patriots @ New York Jets Preview

September 19th, 2009 1:03 pm
by Big Dog

Well it’s not really a surprise to anybody that the Patriots are coming off a win against Buffalo. What IS surprising, is how they very nearly didn’t. You can make all the excuses you like, but the simple truth is that the Patriots don’t have it together yet. Brady was very pressured by the Bills‘ pass rush, especially in the first half, and the characteristic Patriots cohesion just wasn’t on display.

At the same time the New York Jets just monstered Houston with the Texans’ only score the result of a combined INT and Fumble Recovery. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez is certainly stirring up the enthusiastic support of Jets fans and with good reason. So far he seems to be stepping up to playing at the elite level with a great deal of poise, maturity and mental presence – all of which he’ll need if he wants to win on Sunday.

New England Patriots

Brady and the Patriots offense put up good numbers last week, with 378 passing yards and 12 receptions each for Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Their running game was seriously hampered and had its lowest output in a while. This formula can’t hold up against the newly revitalised Baltimore Jets defense. Quite simply, the Patriots need to get more yardage on the ground and contain the brutal defensive onslaught the Jets unleashed on the Texans last week. If they can do that, then the Patriots will get the job done.

New York Jets

New head coach Rex Ryan is off to a strong start and has established a foundation for his right to the position on the basis of his defense’s miserly allowance of only 183 total yards against Houston. If his defense can bring that same intensity and success to this Sunday’s game, then they’re in with a chance. The New York Giants showed the way to beat the Patriots in Superbowl XLII, hit Brady hard and often (and pull off a miracle or two). Unsettle the passing game and disrupt the run. Make no mistake, Mark Sanchez is a very good rookie quarterback, but if the Jets are going to beat the Patriots, it will be the defense that wins the game.

Prediction

Any rational football fan has to take the Patriots here. Expect them to bring a journeyman, work-a-day approach to the game, looking to systematically pick the Jets apart. A cold, clinical and methodical approach.

But I’m not a rational fan when it comes to the Patriots. I can respect the team and their success (and I do), but I don’t like their flavour of kool-aid, so I’m not buying it. This might be a case of wishful thinking, but I’m going with the hubris of youth in Sanchez, the point to prove in Rex Ryan and the renewed passion of Jets fans, and most of all – the ferocity of their defense.

New York Jets 31 – 28

Posted in Analysis, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Game, Houston Texans, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, NFL schedule, NY Giants, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Randy Moss, Superbowl, Superbowl XLII, Tom Brady, Wes Welker | No Comments »

NY Giants @ Dallas SNF Week 2 Preview

September 17th, 2009 5:26 am
by Pro Set

The Giants impressed many, especially FOX network executives, with their win over Washington. In the past, the Giants have played well at Texas Stadium. But of course Sunday night marks the first NFL match at the Jerry Jones theme park known as Cowboys Stadium. To state the obvious, the Giants must run the ball well inside. RB Brandon Jacobs needs to be productive on early downs. Bucs RB Carnell Williams ran over several Cowboys on Sunday. Similar hard running will allow QB Eli Manning to use play action. A poor running game, however, will see Cowboys star DeMarcus Ware at his pass rushing best.

The Cowboys were also impressive with a road win at Tampa Bay. Terrible coverage breakdowns by the Bucs gave easy scores to QB Tony Romo. For all the criticism he recieves, Romo is a good QB. And with serious inury concerns hanging over the entire NYG secondary, Romo and WR Roy Williams will be keen for more big plays. And therein lies they key for the Cowboys. Romo cannot force big plays. His job is to move the chains and exploit the right matchups at the right time: TE Jason Witten should expect a lot of work.

I expect this to be a very close game. NYG will struggle if they fall behind. The Cowboys will not fear the NYG receivers, so if Romo plays a clean game and the Cowboys hold Jacobs in check, the Cowboys should win.

Posted in Analysis, Dallas Cowboys, Eli Manning, Game, Jason Witten, Marion Barber, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL on FOX, NFL on NBC, NFL on television, NY Giants, Roy Williams (DAL), Tom Coughlin, Tony Romo, Wade Phillips | No Comments »

AFC 2009 Power Previews – AFC East

July 20th, 2009 6:27 am
by Big Dog

AFC East

The AFC East always offers up an excruciating mix of brilliance and boredom. The one-sided domination of the division by the Patriots was slightly diminished last season, but they really are the only consistent performer. There are several teams trying to build on last year but we remain to be convinced that it will actually work. Here’s the breakdown.

Buffalo Bills

Big Dog Barks: So the Bills have acquired WR Terrell Owens in the hope that this will make some kind of impact for their offense. There’s no questioning that Owens has the ability to make the plays happen – but you still need somebody who can put the ball in his general vicinity. Last season the Bills struggled at QB and it’s difficult to see Owens making that much of a difference. At the same time something’s got to happen for Buffalo, surely this is their year?

Foolhardy Guess –   9-7 with an unanticipated success running the ball.

ProSet Proclaims: Chris ‘Boomer’ Berman always says that ‘no one circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills.’ With four straight losing seasons and a decade long playoff absence, Dick Jauron needs a last stand. QB Trent Edwards is no longer a promising youngster. He either needs to secure wins or leave town. No doubt WR Terrell Owens will chime in with advice at some point. RB Marshawn Lynch needs to better the league average of 4.1 ypc. DT Marcus Stroud needs some help up front on defense. The Bills have a weak secondary, and their season pass defense numbers are always protected by the weather. By then the season is lost. The Bills are an average team again, and their deficiencies will be cruelly exposed on opening night at Foxboro.

Fearless Prediction: 7-9 again with Dick Jauron fired

Miami Dolphins

Big Dog Barks: The formula for the Dolphins this season is pretty straightforward. They need to do what they did last year, but more so. More Wildcat, more defensive aggression, more speed, more, more, more. The big question of course is if they can do that. If they can then look for Miami to dominate in a way that will still not live up to the heyday of Dan Marino.

Foolhardy Guess -   10-6 with the Wildcat being made extinct by mid-season

ProSet Proclaims: The early season demolition of New England gave credibility to Miami. The disappointing home playoff loss to Baltimore showed that there is plenty to do for Bill Parcells. The schedule is tough, with AFC South and NFC South crossovers, as well as playing all AFC 2008 division champions. QB Chad Pennington has proven himself unable to unshackle tight coverage defenses by throwing over the safeties. This is why the Dolphins are very dependent on gimmick running such as Wildcat. With no deep passing threat, teams will load up in the box and suffocate the fish. The defense looks light up front and old at linebacker. No doubt Parcells will look to change that before opening day.

Fearless Prediction: 7-9 with South Beach running Pennington out of town

New England Patriots

Big Dog Barks: The 2009 season for the Patriots can be summed up in one phrase – pocket protection. The Giants proved in Superbowl XLII that all you need to do to succeed against the Patriots is beat their offensive line and sack Brady. Even worse is that the league took notice and while it was disappointing that Brady suffered a season ending injury in the first game of last year, that doesn’t change the fact that he is a marked man on the field. If the Patriots can protect their QB and keep him safe then they should enjoy another ridiculously successful season.

Foolhardy Guess – 10-6 with Brady getting injured in the third game of the season

ProSet Proclaims: QB Tom Brady is the best NFL Quarterback that I have ever seen. If the Patriots maintain his health, they will make the playoffs. I think that Brady has a lot to prove: four seasons without a ring. Fortunately for him, the line is intact. Dan Koppen; Logan Mankins; Stephen Neal; Matt Light; and Nick Kaczur combine to form the best O-Line in football. This season the pressure will be on the New England run defense. The loss at home to Miami will have been endlessly studied throughout the AFC East and beyond. Expect teams to run early and often on the Patriots. If the Patriots give up less than 4 ypc, and turnovers are even, the contest is over.

Fearless Prediction: 13-3 and a Superbowl win

New York Jets

Big Dog Barks: If Rex Ryan can bring a Baltimore style defense to the Jets then he’s more than justified his selection. If in addition to that Mark Sanchez can make a good start, then the Jets are the team to watch in the AFC East. There are a lot of changes in the NYJ equation this year, but change with a purpose can be a good thing and Jets fans will be hoping that the 2009 season brings change that they can believe in.

Foolhardy Guess -   12-4 with Sanchez making league MVP in his debut season

ProSet Proclaims: I’ll come straight out and say that Rex Ryan will do no better than Marvin Lewis. Another trendy Ravens DC hired after a hot streak that was player driven. This was a bad hire by Woody Johnson; just as Todd Haley was a bad hire by Clark Hunt at Kansas City. The QB depth is horrifying. QB Mark Sanchez is overrated and lost a conference game every year in the pathetic Pac 10. RB Thomas Jones is past his best. There are no threatening receivers. If I played for the Jets defense, I’d make sure that I was doing my conditioning work, because they will get plenty of playing time.

Fearless Prediction: 5-11 with Ryan retained only for ownership to save face

Posted in Analysis, Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Buffalo Bills, Chad Pennington, Dick Jauron, Game, Kansas City Chiefs, Marcus Stroud, Marvin Lewis, Miami Dolphins, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NY Giants, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Terrell Owens, Tom Brady | No Comments »

Superbowl XLII – PREVIEW

February 3rd, 2008 5:35 am
by Pro Set

New York Giants vs New England Patriots – Superbowl XLII

Despite the substandard play of Tom Brady in the AFC Championship Game, the Patriots remain clear favourites. The key to the game, when New England has the ball, is whether New York changes its tactics from the Week 17 contest.

In Week 17, the Giants attacked the patriots, and put pressure on Brady. He looked a little unsettled, and generally the tactics of the Giants met with widespread approval. But the seminal moment of Week 17 was the Brady to Moss TD pass when Moss was left single-covered. The playoff opponents that have faced New England clearly determined not to get beaten deep. This policy looked futile as Brady picked Jacksonville apart in the AFC Divisional Playoff. But JAX stuck form to the game plan, and never let the Patriots strike quickly.

San Diego followed this lead, despite the fact that JAX could not force the turnovers. Luck, however, was with SD as Brady was 5% off his game, and with 7 or 8 men in coverage, SD had the men there to swallow three INTs.

So, does New York attack or play coverage? The excellent weather in Arizona tends to suggest that Brady will be comfortable picking apart deep zones. But I think that the Giants must rush four and trust them to deliver. The Patriots offensive line has to have an off day eventually. Since New York has no one who can cover Moss in single coverage, it would be a massive gamble to bring excess rushers on a consistent basis.

For the Giants offense, Eli Manning needs to have his hot streak continued. The accuracy on his throws, the lack of one bounce receptions, and the reliability of Plaxico Burress have to arrive in Arizona. It is obviously well known that Eli Manning has not fared well in his career against the blitz. New England will be tempted to bring relentless pressure. This will test Asante Samuel, who is surely the man to cover Plax when the blitz arrives. He cannot fare worse than Al Harris, who had a nationally televised disaster that will surely be the epitaph to an overrated career.

The Patriots will win, and this author congratulates New England in advance on a perfect season.

Posted in Analysis, Asante Samuel, Bill Belichick, Game, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NY Giants, New England Patriots, Plaxico Burress, Randy Moss, Superbowl, Superbowl XLII, Tom Brady, Tom Coughlin | No Comments »

Superbowl XLII – Pros and Cons

January 31st, 2008 11:11 pm
by Big Dog

The Superbowl’s always an exciting time of year. It’s the culmination of a long and hard season. It’s one of the greatest sporting spectacles on earth. And yet, if your team didn’t make it, the Superbowl presents a very real conundrum. Who do you cheer for?

This year your choice is between the New England Patriots and the New York Giants. Each of these teams present their own sets of pros and cons when you consider offering your support.

New England Patriots
Pros

Cons

New York Giants
Pros

Cons

Anyway, no matter who you decide to cheer for this weekend, enjoy the game, enjoy the spectacle and enjoy the football.

Posted in Bill Belichick, Eli Manning, Game, Laurence Maroney, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NY Giants, New England Patriots, Plaxico Burress, Randy Moss, Superbowl, Superbowl XLII, Tom Brady, Tom Coughlin | No Comments »

Week 13 Analysis: NYG @ Chicago

December 2nd, 2007 9:08 pm
by Big Dog

There’s no pretty way to say this. The Ney York Giants and their battling QB Eli Manning got lucky today. In a game where Manning was continuing his recent and struggling form with two interceptions and a lost fumble, he managed an unexpected fourth quarter comeback that will finally give fans and media in New York something positive to talk about. The best feature of Manning’s game was that he didn’t allow the pressure to get to him. He stayed focused on his job and waited for things to start working. This is a character trait that I’ve long admired in Eli, he copes very well with the additional scrutiny and pressure that is applied to him as a result of his big brother’s stellar career. Eli plays his game and he clearly has the mental toughness to win.

The conditions at Chicago’s Soldier Field were troublesome for both teams. With heavy rain in the morning, and swirling winds throughout the game, it was a difficult game for anyone to get going in the air. Even so, Chicago QB Rex Grossman put in an excellent effort in difficult conditions to complete 25 of 46 passes for 296 yards and a TD. That completion number looks low, but Grossman was especially impressive with his clock management and decision making within the final two minutes of both halves. Good clock management was a real feature of his work and he certainly demonstrated that despite his difficulties earlier in the season, this young QB’s still plenty to offer the Bears. The only consistent flaw in his game today was that he kept getting sacked (6 sacks this game) for big losses by dropping back to allow plays to develop. He should have realised earlier that the best way to beat the Giants’ pass rush (which applied no real pressure on the inside) was to step up into the pocket and buy an extra couple of seconds that way. Doing so would also afforded him better vision of the field.

So, in a simple quarterback comparison, Chicago should have won. As we all know there’s a lot more to football than that. I still believe that there are serious questions to be asked, not just of Eli Manning, but the entire Giants offense and especially Head Coach Tom Coughlin. Manning and his key receivers (WR Plaxico Burress, TE Jeremy Shockey and WR Amani Toomer) have being playing together for several years now and it needs to be asked why these guys haven’t built a better playing relationship. To all appearances they get on very well together and when things work, they work really well, but by now I’d be expecting to see these guys have a better feel and knowledge of what each other is doing on the field. That said, it also needs to be asked of Coach Coughlin, when the QB of the team is struggling with an offense that runs a very vertical passing system, why aren’t there more options in the New York playbook? Where are the mid-range passing plays? Where are the options and adjustments in game?

It’s clear that there are fundamental problems with the Giants offense, but I am unconvinced that the problem is with the players. I have a feeling that it might just be that the team doesn’t know what to do with the players they have. Until the Giants resolve these issues, the best they can hope for is these unconvincing and somewhat fortunate victories.

Posted in Amani Toomer, Analysis, Chicago Bears, Eli Manning, Game, Jeremy Shockey, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL on FOX, NFL on television, NY Giants, Plaxico Burress, Rex Grossman, Tom Coughlin | No Comments »

NFL Week 6 Monday Night Football

October 15th, 2007 9:24 pm
by Pro Set

New York Giants 21-10 Atlanta Falcons Half Time

Second Quarter thoughts 

It took three plays for the Manning mistake to come. He held the ball too long and did not step up on the 3^rd & 11 passing play. 

And the Falcons could not take advantage. ATL K Morten Andersen missed a 48 yard FG attempt to cap a 4 play (-2 yards) drive. 

In a well-predicted read of the square-in, ATL picked off Manning for the second big mistake inside the two minute warning, blowing a real chance to extend the NYG lead.

Ron Jaworski predicted this in an example of why football men always need to be given time in the booth to explain what they know. If this game blows out in the second half, get ready for the Suzy Kolber human-interest-story-a-thon to begin.

Back to the game, Manning is improving, but still does not seem able to play 60 Mins mistake free football.

New York Giants 14-10 Atlanta Falcons End of First Quarter

First Quarter thoughts

I have previously spoken about how the Giants hide their defensive deficiencies with blitzing. Tonight Atlanta has already busted them for one huge rush. Atlanta will need more big plays against the blitz.

The Giants look good with the ball. Eli Manning inevitably makes mistakes in games. If the Falcons cannot capitalise on whatever gifts the Giants provide, this one is over.

The Falcons cannot keep up with the Giants in a track meet.

Posted in Atlanta Falcons, Monday Night Football, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NY Giants | No Comments »

NFL Week 4 Instant Analysis: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

September 30th, 2007 11:54 pm
by Pro Set

Philadelphia 3-16 NY Giants

It would be tempting to blame the injury problems of Philadelphia for the loss to NY Giants. RB Brian Westbrook was among those sorely missed. The truth is, however, that the Eagles were outplayed in a classic demonstration of why left tackles get paid so much money.

When Phildelphia had possession, I felt that they ran the ball well through RB Correll Buckhalter. I also felt that PHI followed up their rare first downs with too many subsequent 1^st & 10 pass plays. The NBC coverage foussed heavily on the battles between RT Jon Runyan and LE Michael Strahan, and, on the other end, LT Winston Justice and RE Osi Umenyiora. It is trite to say that the Giants dominated the edge rush and forced QB Donovan McNabb into rushing his passes.

What nobody seemed to address, however, was that McNabb was not stepping up into the pocket and keeping his eyes downfield. He was taking five step drops and then getting hit. After the sheer volume of sacks that the Eagles conceded, I wanted to see McNabb hit his final drop step and step up, allowing his tackles to concentrate on stopping the inside move. Did anyone hear the name of DT Fred Robbins get mentioned? That means that there was less inside pressure on McNabb, but I guess that they did not have time to pressure him before he was sacked by the edge rushers.

There really is no point writing more than this. Since PHI could not protect the passer, the Eagles could not throw the ball. This meant that it was imperative for the Eagles to get the lead. On this reasoning, the game was decided in two plays.

First, with NYG moving forward late in the second quarter, LB Omar Gaither picked off a QB Eli Manning pass. After carrying the ball back to midfield, he ran out of bounds. I could not believe that he did not try to run over Manning. This was a terrible decision. The momentum of the turnover disappeared in a symphony of penalties and negative plays. How many truly great NFL defenders would run out of bounds when faced with a QB guarding the yardage to the endzone: not many.

Second, the FR TD return by LB Kawika Mitchell deserves mention. I still don’t know how a skill position player like Correll Buckhalter could not cover up that fumble. This Giants TD, occurring late in the 3^rd quarter, drained the belief from the PHI players. If PHI had entered the final quarter, after conceding endless sacks and penalties, with only a ten point deficit, the NYG player might well have thought that the Eagles would prove impossible to extinguish: it’s happened before in this rivalry.

So, overall, the Eagles tried but failed in their (hopefully unintended) application of the Homer Simpson strategy. Stand up like a man, take as many punches as the other guy can possibly throw at you, and then push him over for the knock out victory. Having said that, Andy Reid had as many answers to the NYG pass rush as Moe Siszlak had to the power of Drederick Tatum. Was Andy Reid not once an NFL offensive lineman?

Finally, we only had to wait 90 seconds before John Madden mentioned exotic blitzes (see preview).

Posted in Analysis, Andy Reid, Brian Westbrook, Correll Buckhalter, Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning, Fred Robbins, John Madden, Jon Runyan, Kawika Mitchell, Michael Strahan, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL on NBC, NY Giants, Osi Umenyiora, Philadelphia Eagles, Shaun Andrews, Week 4 Instant Analysis | No Comments »