Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Thanksgiving Day Football Preview

November 25th, 2009 7:39 pm
by Big Dog

Thanksgiving isn’t a holiday that traditionally brings a lot of thankfulness to Detroit. They’ve lost their last few national appearances by wide margins and it’s a tough task again for them this week.

Green Bay Packers

Detroit’s pass defense is not doing the team any favours and it’s pretty reasonable to expect that Green Bay will be able to open up the field and let Rodgers put up some good numbers. If the Packers O-Line can get it together then Green Bay’s passing game should spread the Lions defense and create room for Grant when he’s needed.

Green Bay’s run defense is setting a standard. They haven’t let any rusher gain 100 yards since week 3, and they’ve faced the Vikings twice in that time. Detroit have struggled to put together a real ground game, often defaulting to the screen which can be effective but isn’t really the same thing.

What they’re thankful for: That they’re playing Detroit.

Detroit Lions

There’s a good chance that Detroit will struggle to live up to offensive expectations against Green Bay’s defensive backs. This will be especially true if Stafford really doesn’t play. If that happens then Culpepper will be required to manage the clock and minimise risks.

The Lions’ run defense is marginally better than their pass defense, and this week they’re helped by the fact that Ryan Grant isn’t the most electrifying running back in the league. Mostly this contest will come down to the battle at the line. If Detroit’s D-Line can gain dominance against the Packers O-Line then they’re in with a chance. Of course, this also depends on the line not making any embarrassing mistakes.

What they’re thankful for: That turkey, stuffing and beer will render most of their fans numb to the result.

Prediction

It seems pretty clear that Green Bay have the advantage in this holiday showdown. Packers 31 – 17

Posted in Aaron Rodgers, Analysis, Daunte Culpepper, Detroit Lions, Game, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL Thanksgiving Day Football, NFL on television, NFL schedule | No Comments »

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings – Week 4 Monday Night Football Preview

October 5th, 2009 8:16 am
by Big Dog

Monday Night Football is brewing up a storm tonight as the Vikings play host to the Green Bay Packers. It should be a fierce battle as the Vikings finally get to experience what it feels like to face the Packers with Brett Favre on their side.

Green Bay Packers

With Chad Clifton questionable for the game, and with the Vikings currently sitting as the 4th most aggressive defense in the league, Rodgers is really going to need to step up his game and improve his passing percentage. He’s done well to avoid giving the ball away so far this season, but he has to make some plays if the Packers are to have any hopes of the win here. A lot of defensive attention will be paid by the Packers to Favre, but in all honesty that’s a simple distraction and Mike McCarthy will surely be doing his best to instead try to contain the Vikings running game, while maintaining reasonable coverage. It’s an easier task than it sounds because while the Vikings can definitely run the football, Favre is still playing like he thinks he’s a kid, taking chances and making throws. If the Pack’s want to win this one, they’re going to need to play more like Brett would.

Minnesota Vikings

I’ve heard tell that “Favring” is a new verb, meaning to retire and then comeback, retire and then comeback. While there’s little doubt that Brett Favre has toyed with football fans everywhere in his off-season flip-flopping, there’s also clearly no question that he’s come to Minnesota to really play football. He’s not riding Peterson’s hard running path to glory, instead working the pocket and making plays to ensure that the Vikings really do have a balanced attack. He’s only given away one interception so far this season and the Vikings defense have been crushingly effective. If they can take advantage of key matchups at the line, expect the Vikings pass rush to become intimately familiar with Aaron Rodgers.

Prediction

There’s a lot at stake for both teams in tonight’s game. Pride, divisional standing, history, personal scores – all of these come into play. At the end of the day, right now the Vikings seem to have a more cohesive football team as a whole and better options to take the win at home. I’m going Vikings 24 – 21

Posted in Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson, Analysis, Brett Favre, Game, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Monday Night Football, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, NFL schedule, Week 4 Instant Analysis | 2 Comments »

Breaking News: Brett Favre to coach Australian Rules Football

June 28th, 2009 11:02 pm
by Big Dog

In a shock announcement today Brett Favre’s agent has revealed the quarterback’s intentions to begin a new career halfway around the world, taking on a coaching position with the Australian Rules football team, the Essendon Bombers. Favre said that he had long enjoyed watching the AFL games via satellite and that he had great respect for the skill and toughness required to play that game. “They have the strength and speed of linebackers, with the catching skills of wide receivers and the kicking ability of the best punters – it’s an amazing all-round set” Favre answered when asked what had attracted him to the game.

In response to a question about whether his NFL experience was relevant to entirely different code of football Favre laughed and said “Well I know about reading a game, I understand high pressure situations, and I know how to have fun while doing it. Anyone could learn from that.”

This shock announcement has shaken the NFL world and dismayed fans, players and coaches alike, most of whom thought Favre was destined for Minnesota.

Of course, the preceding paragraphs are entirely made up and have no relation to any persons living or dead. But when the world’s spinning in the grip of yet another year of “What Will Favre Do?” fever, well we just had to have a little fun with y’all. No matter what happens with the great number 4, we hope his recovery from surgery goes well and we’re sure Brett will continue to add lots of excitement to the world of football, on or off the field.

In any case, with no disrespect to Brett intended, I can’t wait for all this speculation to be over and for the season to have begun. There’s been a lot going on, but man I’m ready for some football!

Posted in Brett Favre, Game, Minnesota Vikings, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players | No Comments »

Week 2 Instant Analysis

September 16th, 2007 10:00 pm
by Pro Set

Dallas 37-20 Miami

The final score was not indicative of the real struggle that occurred in this game. Miami opened the game with a solid rushing attack. Clearly the aim was to set up deep passing plays. QB Trent Green slightly under-threw WR Marty Booker on the left sideline fly route and CB Anthony Henry, using inside trail technique, was able to pick off the under-throw because he was allowing for safety help over the top. After this incident the Dolphins switched the emphasis in their passing game.

Dallas built a 10-3 lead with long, sustained drives that brought about evident tiredness in the Miami pursuit. It became clear that when either defense did not force a 3 & out or produce a takeaway, it would be hard to sustain consistent pass pressure and pursuit.

The MIA FG drive in the final two mins of the first half was a vindication for the changing focus of the MIA passing attack. Knowing that DAL would respect Chambers and Booker by defending over the top, the Dolphins ran plenty of intermediate curls and come backs that enabled them to move the ball. With S Roy Williams often nosing around the line, where he is best (more on that later), DAL seemed to have a consistent three deep shell on first down, with S Ken Hamlin playing centerfield, forcing the DAL corners to surrender large first down cushions, hence the deep curls. This is where CB Terence Newman was sorely missed.

DAL 10-6 MIA (halftime)

With MIA taking a 13-10 lead off the opening drive of the 3rd quarter, by again utilizing first down passing, DAL looked in trouble. This trouble increased when DAL was forced to punt, trailling 13-10 still. I thought that the most important series of the game was the one that followed the DAL punt. The Cowboys gave up an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on the punt coverage (player not immediately returning inbounds after being forced out). Having given up two straight scoring drives, the Cowboys held the Dolphins to a 3 & out.

Credit to the FOX commentators (Kenny Albert and Daryl Johnston) for pre-emptively predicting peril for MIA when a penalty forced the Fish to re-punt the ball. From the moment that WR Patrick Crayton broke the first wave, the momentum swung.

DAL QB Tony Romo (14-29; 186yds; 2TD) took over the game completely. His pocket presence was outstanding. I said in the preview that Romo will get the ball off rather than take the sack, and on this drive we saw two consecutive examples. On 2nd & 8 from the MIA 14, Romo threw the ball off his back foot to Crayton, breaking towards the endzone on the reverse scramble drill, and drawing the pass interference penalty. Poor work from FOX here as Johnston failed to explain that, even though the penalized action was by MIA CB Travis Daniels in holding the jersey of Crayton, the fact that this occurrred after the pass was thrown caused the penalty to be assessed as pass interference. This is a significant benefit to the offense since PI gives a 1st down a the spot of the foul, whereas defensive holding is 5 yards from the previous spot and a 1st down. On the next play Romo was corralled and almost brought down by DT Vonnie Holliday on the play action fake, but threw the pass anyway just before his knees hit the ground. So always expect Romo to release the ball, but this will mean more fumbles and more deflected INT opportunities throughout the season. When it works, however, it looks talismanic.

With DAL having regained the lead (DAL 17-13 MIA) it was crucial for MIA to answer. With the DAL corners playing closer due the MIA intermediate passing attack as described above, the MIA offense sensibly looked for the quick separation patterns. The slant or skinny post is always the best, for it is hard for the CB, once the WR has inside position, to get between the receiver and the ball. So Trent Green attempted the skinny post to Chambers but he overthrew it and S Ken Hamlin, again coming over from deep centrefield, intercepted. DAL turned this takeaway into a FG that gave the Cowboys a touchdown lead.

With MIA on the ropes, Green needed to lead them on a solid drive. On the second play of the ensuing possession, a fumbled exchange from C to QB bled the belief from MIA. This was where the game was lost. MIA simply got too impatient and thought that they had cracked the DAL defence by their 1st down throwing.

DAL took the turnover in for for another FG, and again it was poor work by FOX that no-one mentioned that the ball went through off the upright. In the NFL, when the kickers usually kick from straight in front, it is very rare for a ball to strike the upright and go through. If you don’t believe me, ask Ryan Longwell, whose final seconds game winning FG attempt hit the upright and missed at DET today. The key to DAL getting in range on this drive was the use of WR Terrell Owens on a crossing route on 3rd & 7 that picked up 12 yards. In my opinion, Owens is best when he can get moving, take a relatively easy catch (he dropped several passes earlier in the game), and maximise the run after catch yardage.

The 10 point lead was never seriously threatened, and the Cowboys improved to 2-0, whilst the Dolphins remained winless.

DAL 37-20 MIA (final)

Overall, I though that Romo was superb, and although I fear that he will have multiple turnover games not infrequently, he showed today that when he’s on, it translates into wins. Don’t be seduced by the big rushing number of DAL, a lot of it was garbage time all or nothing plays (where the first line of defense is the only line). DAL would be well advised to note the ease with which MIA moved the ball and the fact that the edge pass rush was very quiet.

Miami showed flashes of offensive life, but cannot rely on the pass to the extent that became evident today. Also obvious is that 5 turnovers (4 INT) will not bring many wins, despite what Detroit fans might think. New C Samson Satele looks strong and does have long hair, but his poor snap caused the 3rd quarter lost fumble on the exchange, and that C-QB relationship (the most important in football, since it happens every play) must develop quickly. I did not think that Tim Ruddy would get a mention, but the Dolphins could have used him today. The bright spot for MIA is that Chambers and Booker remain a potent combination, although I am sure that Trent Green misses the central Kansas City target of TE Tony Gonzalez, since MIA TE David Martin is not a major threat. MIA can recover more easily than any other 0-2 team, since both losses were inter-conference.

Posted in Anthony Henry, Chris Chambers, Daryl Johnston, David Martin, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Ken Hamlin, Kenny Albert, Marty Booker, Minnesota Vikings, NFL, NFL on FOX, NFL on television, Patrick Crayton, Roy Williams (DAL), Ryan Longwell, Samson Satele, Terence Newman, Terrell Owens, Tim Ruddy, Tony Gonzalez, Tony Romo, Travis Daniels, Trent Green, Vonnie Holliday, Week 2 Instant Analysis | No Comments »

Week 2 figures to watch

September 14th, 2007 9:42 am
by Big Dog

Watch out for Adrian Peterson as he takes the field again for the Vikings. His first week performance against Atlanta’s still strong defense was a clear indicator of his potential in the league. The Vikings will be relying on him to increase his workload on the ground, while being a viable receiving option certainly doesn’t hurt one bit.

Shawne Merriman will be looking to make a big impression on Tom Brady as the Chargers and Patriots meet again following last year’s playoffs. There’s plenty for these two top contenders to play for, it’ll just be interesting to see if the entire San Diego roster bring video cameras with them. Also keep an eye out for Bill Belichick pre-game, he’ll probably be looking for someone willing to take a $500,000 bet (Eric Mangini might even be willing to take some of that action).

Posted in Adrian Peterson, Analysis, Atlanta Falcons, Bill Belichick, Eric Mangini, Game, Minnesota Vikings, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, New England Patriots, San Diego Chargers, Shawne Merriman, Tom Brady | No Comments »

NFL Rookies

September 5th, 2007 10:39 am
by Big Dog

I just caught this season’s ESPN show “Hey Rookie. Welcome to the NFL”. To be honest, I hadn’t been sure what to expect but I was pleasantly surprised by the quality of the show.

It followed rookies from the Dolphins, the Texans, the Vikings and the Panthers as they went through training camps and into preseason games. It did a great job of highlighting not only how difficult it is to make it into an NFL team roster, but then how much more work it takes to secure and keep a starting spot.

Even better the show gave real insight into the kind of technical detail that goes into each position and role in a team. Everything from the position of a player’s heels at the snap to the timing of the run and pass. If you didn’t already love this game, then at the very least this show should give you a healthy respect for it.

Posted in Carolina Panthers, ESPN, Game, Houston Texans, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, NFL | No Comments »