The AFC so far

October 4th, 2007 9:43 am
by NFL Freak

For most NFL teams, the season is already 25% complete. Let’s examine what’s happened so far in the AFC.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills (1-3)

A season-saving divisional win (vs NYJ) has given a spark to the Bills. The only NFL team based in New York can build on that momentum when Dallas visits Orchard Park for the first MNF game in Buffalo in 13 seasons. The Buffalo folk prefer day games, since so many of their fans have such long car trips to the game. Expect the Bills to be out of contention by the halfway point of the season. Dick Jauron is a nice guy, but he just can’t win playoff games, so there is no future in that relationship.

Miami Dolphins (0-4)

What a contrast for the former San Diego coordinators. MIA Coach Cam Cameron finally gets some heat applied after a terrible loss at home to Oakland. Despite acquiring a veteran (and proven) QB in Trent Green, I think that the Dolphins are just too old on the defensive side of the ball. If I’m Wayne Huizenga, I would ask why LB Zach Thomas and DE Jason Taylor ought not to be traded to real contenders in order to beef up the team in next year’s draft. Sorry, Dolphins fans, but this season will not extend into January. Expect a mid-season rally of sorts, but 0-4 in the AFC is irreparable damage.

New England Patriots (4-0)

The standout team in the entire NFL has been the Patriots. Courtesy of the overzealous hysteria about Spygate, the Patriots have clearly bonded and look to be too good. I missed the Salem witch trials, but it’s always refreshing to see history repeating itself. I’m sure, however, that QB Tom Brady is fired more by the crushing disappointment of consecutive seasons with playoff losses. An NFL career is only ever one play away from ending (as we unfortunately saw with BUF LB Kevin Everett). Most Patriot players are set for life. It is the diminishing window of opportunity that drives them. NE is the clear favourite for now. If Roger Goodell had some steel, he’d instruct the Patriots to print post-season tickets now.

New York Jets (1-3)

It’s been a disappointing 4 years since QB Chad Pennington led the Jets to the AFC East title. With RB Thomas Jones combining with RB Leon Washington, I expected the Jets to be able to run the ball well. Pennington needs good play action to be able to hit WR Laveranues Coles. The loss last Sunday at Buffalo will really hurt. I just cannot see the Jets grabbing an AFC Wild Card without 10 wins. And I don’t think that the Jets can go 9-3 from here with games against Dallas, New England and Baltimore still to go.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (2-2)

This is the one of the most disappointing 2-2 starts in the NFL. The Ravens are 0-2 in the division and will need to sweep Pittsburgh to win the AFC North. QB Steve McNair looks like he’s just had one campaign too many. There are only so many big plays that SS Ed Reed can make. This team has issues on both sides of the ball. As for Brian Billick, his 2001 axing of Trent Dilfer in favour of a passing philosophy with QB Elvis Grbac should have already led to his removal. The Ravens are in decline.

Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)

Clearly the Bengals have issues on defense. QB Carson Palmer has too much pressure on him to produce scores on every drive. This team will give up at least 24 points per game on average. With RB Rudi Johnson not being a true breakaway threat, this means that Palmer needs to have 35-40 TD passes this season. He might just get there. Whether the Bengals are playoff-calibre or not will be determined by their series against the NFC West. If Cincy cannot dominate a division without a standout team, the show is over. Remember, WR Chris Henry is nominally able to play after midseason (assuming Goodell reinstates him). Henry is better than the nickel corner for most teams. Anything less than a playoff win is a failure for Cincinnati.

Cleveland Browns (2-2)

After an opening week that exceeded even the most dismal prognostications, the Browns are now 2-1 in the division. QB Derek Anderson has been the man of the moment. It also appears that Cleveland has avoided the receiver curse in the draft with WR Braylon Edwards. I’m just not sure what to make of this team. In Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow, Cleveland has top class weapons. Unfortunately for Browns fans, I think that the Dawg Pound will be empty come January. The Browns have 3 divisional road games to come, as well as facing the Patriots. A winning record is possible, and I think that a winning record will save Romeo Crennel from the chop.

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)

It’s hard to get a read on the Steelers. They key will be winning divisional games. Fortunately for Pittsburgh, it seems as thought the Steelers can rely on the rest of the AFC North knocking each other off. QB Ben Roethlisberger is the best game management QB in the division. Unlike the other teams in the AFC North, Pittsburgh does not have that brittle edge that can lead to implosion. I see PIT going at least 4-2 in the division, and 3-1 against the AFC East. Splitting their other games brings out a 10-6 record, so expect PIT to make the playoffs.

AFC South

Houston Texans (2-2)

For the first time in my life, I backed the Houston Texans (-3) at Atlanta last Sunday. Despite my retained bitterness, I am still impressed by the 2-2 start. The struggles against JAX (against whom HOU has a great record) and TEN will be fascinating. I like this division as the supplier of two playoff teams. For the Texans, QB Matt Schaub must continue to improve. Unless RB Ahman Green can prove me wrong and show that his best is not yet a distant memory, I think that the Texans can only win through the air. WR Andre Davis will need to stay healthy. I think that the Texans will run out of steam and finish 8-8, but at least HOU season ticket holders will have meaningful football to watch come December.

Indianapolis Colts (3-0)

The Colts are looking good without making too much noise. The Colts are already 2-0 in the division. I can’t see them losing to any team from the NFC either. QB Peyton Manning is now truly an elite NFL QB. I was one of the last doubters. The division is theirs if the Colts defensive front four can stay healthy. The loss of DT Anthony McFarland will be keenly felt. DE Dwight Freeney is deadly when the Colts have the lead in the second half. I still think, despite all the hype about S Bob Sanders, that teams can run on Indy with success. With the Chargers struggling, all signs point to another AFC decider between the Colts and the Patriots. The venue will matter.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1)

The bombshell that began the JAX season has proven to be successful so far. QB David Garrard has led the Jags to wins at Denver and verus Atlanta. JAX coach Jack Del Rio will still be upset that the inevitable teething problems of the Byron Leftwich issue spilled over into an opening day home divisional loss. If JAX misses the playoffs by a game, he will bitterly regret not acting earlier. For mine, RB Fred Taylor is in his final effective season. Between Taylor and RB Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX has to get back to pounding the ball, and then stopping the run through DT John Henderson and DT Marcus Stroud. Remember, however, that TEN ran for over 200 yards at JAX. With JAX already having had their bye, injuries will hurt them more than most as the season progresses.

Tennessee Titans (2-1)

The Titans are looking like the most improved team in the NFL. When one recalls their steamrolling finish to 2006, however, this is to be expected. QB Vince Young has clearly brought a sense of belief and excitement to the team. His passing is still developing, but he has the intangible quality of competitiveness that separates good players from winning players. I have been most impressed with the TEN defense. As long as the Titans can get pressure on the passer with only 4 down linemen, they will win games. With winnable games against AFC West teams and a weak NFC South, TEN should get 10 wins. The crucial games are, obviously, the divisional rivalries. If TEN goes 4-2 in the AFC South, expect them to be returning to the playoffs for the first time since the 2003 season.

AFC West

Denver Broncos (2-2)

Denver have given themselves a reliable start to the season and can build on their early success. Given their performance so far, you have to like the Broncos as they prepare to face the San Diego Chargers this Sunday. There’s no question that Mike Shanahan has his work cut out for him and will need to build more consistency into the team on both sides of the ball, but the Broncos are a real playoff chance.

Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)

The Chiefs crushed the San Diego Chargers last week, and it’s hard to tell if this is more an indication of the Chiefs’ form, or the Chargers’. QB Damon Huard seems to be settling in well and the Chiefs have made some ground on their passing game. That said, there’s still a long way to go till the playoffs - Chiefs fans, don’t hold your breath.

Oakland Raiders (2-2)

Oakland haven’t had the convincing start many expected. While they’ve had some strong wins and individual performances (including Daunte Culpepper against Miami), Oakland will need to win convincingly against the San Diego Chargers in order to convince the rest of us that they’re a genuine prospect.

San Diego Chargers (1-3)

San Diego have by far and away been the shock disappointment of the season so far. Expectations have been high following their 14-2 record of last season. It was big news when Norv Turner was brought in as a replacement coach for a successful team. Many Chargers fans can now justifiably question the sanity of that decision. Despite Turner’s reputation as an offensive specialist, the Chargers have comprehensively failed to ignite that half of their game. Star RB LaDainian Tomlinson has struggled to get things going, and there are serious questions to be asked about QB Philip Rivers’ decision making. At this point it’s difficult to see San Diego being able to realistically aim for much more than trying to finish the season with a winning record. Especially now that they’ve marked themselves as the weak team in the division. Everyone will be gunning for them.

Posted in Fred Taylor, Maurice Jones-Drew, David Garrard, John Henderson, Anthony McFarland, Jack Del Rio, Marcus Stroud, Vince Young, Jacksonville Jaguars, Dick Jauron, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Chad Pennington, Tennessee Titans, Bob Sanders, Dwight Freeney, Leon Washington, Ed Reed, Laveranues Coles, Thomas Jones, Daunte Culpepper, Jason Taylor, Brian Billick, Rudi Johnson, Andre Davis, Ahman Green, Braylon Edwards, Derek Anderson, Romeo Crennel, Kellen Winslow, Mike Shanahan, Pittsburgh Steelers, Matt Schaub, San Diego Chargers, Damon Huard, Kansas City Chiefs, Tom Brady, New England Patriots, Peyton Manning, NFL Players, Analysis, Game, Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans, NFL Franchises/Teams, Indianapolis Colts, NFL Coaches, Carson Palmer, Cam Cameron, Trent Green, Norv Turner, LaDainian Tomlinson, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Zach Thomas, Oakland Raiders, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Steve McNair, Buffalo Bills, Kevin Everett, Denver Broncos, NFL | No Comments »

Week 2 Instant Analysis

September 16th, 2007 10:00 pm
by Pro Set

Dallas 37-20 Miami

The final score was not indicative of the real struggle that occurred in this game. Miami opened the game with a solid rushing attack. Clearly the aim was to set up deep passing plays. QB Trent Green slightly under-threw WR Marty Booker on the left sideline fly route and CB Anthony Henry, using inside trail technique, was able to pick off the under-throw because he was allowing for safety help over the top. After this incident the Dolphins switched the emphasis in their passing game.

Dallas built a 10-3 lead with long, sustained drives that brought about evident tiredness in the Miami pursuit. It became clear that when either defense did not force a 3 & out or produce a takeaway, it would be hard to sustain consistent pass pressure and pursuit.

The MIA FG drive in the final two mins of the first half was a vindication for the changing focus of the MIA passing attack. Knowing that DAL would respect Chambers and Booker by defending over the top, the Dolphins ran plenty of intermediate curls and come backs that enabled them to move the ball. With S Roy Williams often nosing around the line, where he is best (more on that later), DAL seemed to have a consistent three deep shell on first down, with S Ken Hamlin playing centerfield, forcing the DAL corners to surrender large first down cushions, hence the deep curls. This is where CB Terence Newman was sorely missed.

DAL 10-6 MIA (halftime)

With MIA taking a 13-10 lead off the opening drive of the 3rd quarter, by again utilizing first down passing, DAL looked in trouble. This trouble increased when DAL was forced to punt, trailling 13-10 still. I thought that the most important series of the game was the one that followed the DAL punt. The Cowboys gave up an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on the punt coverage (player not immediately returning inbounds after being forced out). Having given up two straight scoring drives, the Cowboys held the Dolphins to a 3 & out.

Credit to the FOX commentators (Kenny Albert and Daryl Johnston) for pre-emptively predicting peril for MIA when a penalty forced the Fish to re-punt the ball. From the moment that WR Patrick Crayton broke the first wave, the momentum swung.

DAL QB Tony Romo (14-29; 186yds; 2TD) took over the game completely. His pocket presence was outstanding. I said in the preview that Romo will get the ball off rather than take the sack, and on this drive we saw two consecutive examples. On 2nd & 8 from the MIA 14, Romo threw the ball off his back foot to Crayton, breaking towards the endzone on the reverse scramble drill, and drawing the pass interference penalty. Poor work from FOX here as Johnston failed to explain that, even though the penalized action was by MIA CB Travis Daniels in holding the jersey of Crayton, the fact that this occurrred after the pass was thrown caused the penalty to be assessed as pass interference. This is a significant benefit to the offense since PI gives a 1st down a the spot of the foul, whereas defensive holding is 5 yards from the previous spot and a 1st down. On the next play Romo was corralled and almost brought down by DT Vonnie Holliday on the play action fake, but threw the pass anyway just before his knees hit the ground. So always expect Romo to release the ball, but this will mean more fumbles and more deflected INT opportunities throughout the season. When it works, however, it looks talismanic.

With DAL having regained the lead (DAL 17-13 MIA) it was crucial for MIA to answer. With the DAL corners playing closer due the MIA intermediate passing attack as described above, the MIA offense sensibly looked for the quick separation patterns. The slant or skinny post is always the best, for it is hard for the CB, once the WR has inside position, to get between the receiver and the ball. So Trent Green attempted the skinny post to Chambers but he overthrew it and S Ken Hamlin, again coming over from deep centrefield, intercepted. DAL turned this takeaway into a FG that gave the Cowboys a touchdown lead.

With MIA on the ropes, Green needed to lead them on a solid drive. On the second play of the ensuing possession, a fumbled exchange from C to QB bled the belief from MIA. This was where the game was lost. MIA simply got too impatient and thought that they had cracked the DAL defence by their 1st down throwing.

DAL took the turnover in for for another FG, and again it was poor work by FOX that no-one mentioned that the ball went through off the upright. In the NFL, when the kickers usually kick from straight in front, it is very rare for a ball to strike the upright and go through. If you don’t believe me, ask Ryan Longwell, whose final seconds game winning FG attempt hit the upright and missed at DET today. The key to DAL getting in range on this drive was the use of WR Terrell Owens on a crossing route on 3rd & 7 that picked up 12 yards. In my opinion, Owens is best when he can get moving, take a relatively easy catch (he dropped several passes earlier in the game), and maximise the run after catch yardage.

The 10 point lead was never seriously threatened, and the Cowboys improved to 2-0, whilst the Dolphins remained winless.

DAL 37-20 MIA (final)

Overall, I though that Romo was superb, and although I fear that he will have multiple turnover games not infrequently, he showed today that when he’s on, it translates into wins. Don’t be seduced by the big rushing number of DAL, a lot of it was garbage time all or nothing plays (where the first line of defense is the only line). DAL would be well advised to note the ease with which MIA moved the ball and the fact that the edge pass rush was very quiet.

Miami showed flashes of offensive life, but cannot rely on the pass to the extent that became evident today. Also obvious is that 5 turnovers (4 INT) will not bring many wins, despite what Detroit fans might think. New C Samson Satele looks strong and does have long hair, but his poor snap caused the 3rd quarter lost fumble on the exchange, and that C-QB relationship (the most important in football, since it happens every play) must develop quickly. I did not think that Tim Ruddy would get a mention, but the Dolphins could have used him today. The bright spot for MIA is that Chambers and Booker remain a potent combination, although I am sure that Trent Green misses the central Kansas City target of TE Tony Gonzalez, since MIA TE David Martin is not a major threat. MIA can recover more easily than any other 0-2 team, since both losses were inter-conference.

Posted in Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Ken Hamlin, Marty Booker, Anthony Henry, Patrick Crayton, Travis Daniels, Ryan Longwell, David Martin, Tony Gonzalez, Tim Ruddy, Samson Satele, Week 2 Instant Analysis, NFL on FOX, Terrell Owens, Kansas City Chiefs, Tony Romo, NFL on television, Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions, Vonnie Holliday, Chris Chambers, Terence Newman, Roy Williams (DAL), Trent Green, NFL | No Comments »

Keep your eye on these…

September 9th, 2007 8:13 am
by Big Dog

It’s a big week in football. Arguably the biggest week of the regular season as teams seek to stake out an early lead in the race to divisional titles and the playoffs. Beyond the usual suspects, here are some players to watch closely in the coming games.

Firstly look out for Randy Moss in his debut for the Patriots. In their first outing together, Tom Brady will be wanting to connect early and often with his star receiver. This is even more important given the fact that Moss has been under an injury cloud coming into this game and has missed most of the preseason. If these two can establish a rhythm, they could be a nightmare for opposing defences.

Secondly, keep an eye on Brett Favre. Sure, it seems an obvious (and maybe even cliched) thing to say, but it’s true. It’d be easy to think that Brett’s motivated by the records he’s set to tumble this season. He’s one win away from passing Dan Marino and matching John Elway. He’s only seven touchdown passes away from the record for most all time. Records like that would be distracting for anyone, but it’d be a big mistake to think that’s what gets Favre going.

As he demonstrated last season with all the talk surrounding his possible retirement, Brett is more interested in the task at hand than the talk off the field. In the same way that he is able to keep looking downfield as the first and second tackles make contact, he is hungry for the Packers to win. Even with a tough matchup against the Eagles, watch closely this week (and this season), for the records and the football.

Third, the battle of the backups. This will be one of the most interesting matchups of the first round. Damon Huard (KC Chiefs) and Matt Schaub (Houston) will be working to prove their value as they both move into starting positions. Both men have demonstrated that they belong in the league, and after years of patience and hard work, they’re now in a position to capitalise on the opportunity to shape the game.

There is a real mental toughness required to patiently ride the bench and to accept that even when you do play, you’re probably headed right back to the bench. Expect both men to demonstrate this toughness and patience as they go head to head. I’ve got no better reason for this than a good feeling, but I think Huard might come out in front.

Posted in Damon Huard, Matt Schaub, Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, Randy Moss, Tom Brady, Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles, Houston Texans, Analysis, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, Brett Favre, NFL | No Comments »