Week 12 Analysis: New York Jets @ Dallas

November 22nd, 2007 10:29 pm
by Big Dog

First of all, make sure you catch up with Pro Set’s analysis of Green Bay @ Detroit here. It provides great insight into not only what happened in the game today, but also gives you a glimpse of what Green Bay will need to accomplish next week against Dallas.

Which brings us to what Dallas did today. Nobody could reasonably claim to be completely surprised by the dominance of the Cowboys this week, even after the New York Jets managed a surprise victory over Pittsburgh last week.

However, the keen observer won’t be fooled by the blowout indicated by the final score. The truth is that while Dallas QB Tony Romo had a great night and led the Cowboys to a comprehensive win, this game was more about defense than offense. Simply put, both of the Jets’ lines, defensive and offensive, were dominated.

In particular, the inability of the Jets’ O-Line to contain the pass rush meant that Jets’ QB Kellen Clemens spent most of the night trying to get passes away under immense pressure. Pressure led by the ever capable Dallas LB DeMarcus Ware, who broke through on several occasions and disrupted a lot of New York’s passing game. In addition, Dallas’ coverage was just better and was summed up nicely when CB Terence Newman returned an interception 50 yards for a TD late in the 2nd Quarter.

To make matters worse, it’s tough for any team that has to try and contain Romo, WR Terrell Owens and TE Jason Witten. The Jets’ did their best with this task, trying to pay special attention to Owens and Witten in coverage, while applying pressure in the pass rush. They did actually manage to break through and sack Romo three times, but it just wasn’t enough.

It sounds simple, but it’s true, you just can’t win football games if you can’t control the line of scrimmage. The Jets couldn’t, and so they didn’t.

For those who are waiting with great anticipation for the clash between the Cowboys and Packers next week, there are some points to take out of this game. The first of these is that the Cowboys can be disrupted. Owens was much quieter today than usual and clearly the special attention paid to him had an effect. He still took several crucial catches, including a late TD pass, but his overall numbers were much lower.

Secondly, Romo can be disrupted with good pass rushing. The Jets managed to get to him several times and in the end forced the Cowboys to make use of RB Julius Jones and RB Marion Barber to great effect.

All of this gives Green Bay hope for their meeting next week. It won’t be easy by any stretch, but if they can contain Owens and Witten in coverage, their D-Line might be able to drive the pressure needed to get to Romo. If they are successful at that, they’ll then need to do a much better job of containing the Cowboys’ running backs than the Jets did. In the end, Green Bay need to keep their offense on the field as long as possible, the best way to keep Romo, Owens, Witten, Jones and Barber out of the game is simply to leave them on the sidelines.

Posted in Jason Witten, Marion Barber, Julius Jones, Terence Newman, DeMarcus Ware, Kellen Clemens, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, NFL on television, Analysis, Game, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, Terrell Owens, Tony Romo, NFL | No Comments »

Week 12 Analysis: Green Bay @ Detroit

November 22nd, 2007 9:53 pm
by Pro Set

After the early success of Detroit on the ground, hopes were raised at Ford Field. Detroit RB Kevin Jones has proven in the past that he is a capable featured back. One could sense the crowd anticipating another miserable NFC domed outing for Green Bay QB Brett Favre.

As the half wore on, however, the shape of the game irreversibly unfolded. Detroit cannot generate enough pressure from its front four to hide its miserable secondary. Losing CB Dre Bly to Denver has weakened an already patchy secondary. DT Shaun Rogers gets all the face time, but too often he lumbers off the field after second down because he is tired from providing the inside run defense as well as the pass rush. With Green Bay passing so much (4 rushes: 31 passes mid third quarter) it was incumbent on Rogers and the DET line to exert pressure. This is meant to be the strong suit of DET coach Rod Marinelli.

The second half was an exhibition. Favre looked completely comfortable. He completed 20 passes straight. He completed every pass that he threw in the third quarter. His first incompletion for the half was when WR Greg Jones could not get a second foot down in the left edge of the DET end-zone. Inevitably, DET eventually blitzed. And the Packers were ready for it. They had the screen pass ready to go and only an ankle grab prevented a huge catch and run. This play call, which had perfectly anticipated the blitz, demonstrated the superiority of the Packers at all levels of this fixture. The fact that DET did not blitz more was ample proof of the lack of confidence that DET has in its secondary to cover man-to-man. The contrast with CB Charles Woodson and CB AL Harris of the Packers was very pronounced.

For Detroit, the late comeback of sorts was rendered pointless when GB escaped a 1^st and 20 without even facing a third down inside the final minutes, with DET within 8 points. The inability of the DET front seven to close running lanes between the tackles denied them any chance of a late tying drive. Indeed, the TD reception from WR Roy Williams that closed the gap was notable for the fact that he never actually grounded his second foot. He rolled off a Packer over the end-line, but the Back Judge was so focussed on whether he maintained possession that the score was given.

Clearly GB looks good. The late rushing bonanza was distorting of the influence that the GB passing attack had on the game. GB travels to Irving, TX, next Thursday night in the NFC game of the season. Please don’t give credit to NFL Network for “selecting” this game. They just got lucky, since the NFL policy is to give teams a week’s rest where possible. So the next Thursday night game was always going to be between two of the teams that played on Thanksgiving.

For Detroit, the two huge home losses of the past five days will crush their season. QB Jon Kitna played well, but, as I have mentioned earlier this season, he needs to shake the ghosts of 1999 where a great start capitulated and Seattle missed the first round bye and lost a home Wild Card playoff. I watched him closely today. He is a man whose confidence is not where it should be. DE Aaron Kampman could tell you more. He was next to Kitna for most of the DET possessions. In a team that has invested so heavily in receivers, Kitna needs to take three steps and release. In his defense, until the Martz retreads of WR Sean McDonald and WR Mike Furrey stop dropping passes, Detroit cannot win against a quality opponent.

Posted in NFL Coaches, Detroit Lions, Jon Kitna, Rod Marinelli, Green Bay Packers, Brett Favre, Game, Analysis, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL | No Comments »

NFL Week 11 Analysis: Washington @ Dallas - Final

November 18th, 2007 9:23 pm
by Big Dog

The second half of this game was every bit exciting and eventful as expected. The early stages of the 3rd quarter were slow to start but things started to turn when Dallas Cowboys Head Coach Wade Phillips successfully challenged an INT by Washington Redskins LB Rocky McIntosh.

On the very next play, the Redskins were called for pass interference which turned it into a 51 yard play for the Cowboys. Dallas QB Tony Romo then completed a 31 yard TD pass to WR Terrell Owens.

That pattern continued for pretty much the rest of the game with Owens receiving all 4 of Romo’s touchdown passes, equalling a Cowboys team record for TD receptions in a game. Owens has also climbed to 3rd all time number of receptions. Romo is additionally on his way to setting a new team record for TD passes in a season.

All of this could lead the casual observer to assume that Dallas had a pretty easy/comfortable time of it, and that would be a mistake. The true story is that while Dallas did come away with the win, they didn’t particularly impress. At the end of the day, they did what everybody expected them to do, win at home. They really only got away with it because Owens managed to make Redskins CB Shawn Springs’ day a living hell.

It almost looked personal in a way. Springs wrestled Owens to the ground on his first reception of the day, and Owens took exception to being manhandled when he’d be forced back far enough that the play should have been called dead. To be fair to Springs, the whistle hadn’t blown and it was his job to keep going until it was blown. No flags on the play, but Owens was visibly emotional for the rest of the game and managed to make big breaks, confuse the Redskins coverage and give Romo enough room to make sure they both had a great day. Springs was meant to be covering TO most of the time, and TO worked hard to make sure he didn’t.

That said, the highlight performance of the game was definitely Washington QB Jason Campbell (33-54, 348yds, 2TD, INT). Campbell showed great patience, presence and poise in the pocket, waiting for plays to develop and executing under intense pressure, particularly from Dallas LB DeMarcus Ware. Campbell was especially good when the Redskins were working their hurry-up offense and seemed more comfortable with the rhythm of that part of the game.

All in all, it was an entertaining and tight game that bodes well for the future of the Redskins. The NFC is now shaping up to be quite a contest with the Green Bay Packers and the Dallas Cowboys now both 9-1 for the season.

Posted in NFL on FOX, DeMarcus Ware, Denver Broncos, Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins, Shawn Springs, Rocky McIntosh, Wade Phillips, NFL Coaches, Green Bay Packers, NFL on television, Analysis, Game, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, Terrell Owens, Tony Romo, NFL | No Comments »

NFL Fantasy Football Week 3

September 21st, 2007 9:57 am
by Big Dog

One of the most intriguing matchups of the week is San Diego at Green Bay. The Chargers have a lot to prove, if they want to live up to the incredibly high expectations that their 14-2 record established last season, they need to win their next 14 straight.

As you may know, that’s not the kind of crazy talk prediction I’m willing to participate in. That said, San Diego have to make something happen this week to have any realistic chance of salvaging their season.

At the same time Brett Favre and the Packers have won their last six games. It’s easy to forget last season, and usually I’d be telling you that form last season doesn’t provide a solid basis for this season. Even so, everyone knows that last year the Packers were working with a very young side that lacked experience at the NFL level. By the end of last season we were seeing this team start to come good.

This late season form has carried into this year with the Packers putting up strong performances in the first two weeks. Last week Tom Brady, Randy Moss and the New England Offensive Line demonstrated that San Diego are vulnerable in the air. The Chargers’ secondary leaves a lot to be desired and it won’t take much separation for the passing game to open up. I’d be expecting good numbers this week from Brett Favre and his main receiving options, Donald Driver and James Jones.

Interestingly, I also think that this matchup will be important for LaDainian Tomlinson. Last week LT was held to only 43 yards from 18 attempts. It’s possible to argue that he hasn’t really lit up the field so far this season. If San Diego is to have a chance, they need their league MVP to do his thing. Expect an extra effort from Tomlinson this week.

Denver Broncos kicker, Jason Elam, has been the deciding factor in the last two weeks for the Broncos. It could well come down to field position and kicking again as the Jacksonville Jaguars come to play in Denver.

Atlanta play host to the Carolina Panthers this week. Panthers DE Julius Peppers will be looking to build on his fearsome reputation as a Quarterback’s nightmare. The Falcons have already given up 13 sacks this season and you can bet Peppers will be looking to push that total ever higher.

Good luck with week 3.

Posted in LaDainian Tomlinson, Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos, Jacksonville Jaguars, Donald Driver, Julius Peppers, Jason Elam, James Jones, Randy Moss, Tom Brady, NFL Franchises/Teams, Carolina Panthers, Game, NFL Players, Brett Favre, New England Patriots, San Diego Chargers, Green Bay Packers, NFL | No Comments »

Week 2 Fantasy Players

September 16th, 2007 3:38 am
by Big Dog

There’s no question that the Buffalo Bills have had an emotionally challenging week as they’ve dealt with the news of Kevin Everett’s injury and then the nearly miraculous nature of his recover thus far. In spite of the distractions, expect the Bills to be playing with a lot of commitment and energy as their injured defense look to hold up against the attack of the Pittsburgh Steelers as led by Ben Roethlisberger.

That said, Roethlisberger himself has a lot to be playing for this week. He’s been stung by criticism of his decision making, game management and his performance last season. He’s got a lot to prove and teammates have reported that he’s training and playing with the drive and commitment of a man with a chip on his shoulder. Add to this the fact that the Steelers defense managed to force five turnovers and six sacks last week. If that proves to be a trend, then the Steelers offense is going to get plenty of playing time. I’d expect Big Ben to be taking full advantage of the Bills’ injuries this week and looking for some impressive numbers from him.

Plaxico Burress was a popular outlet for Eli Manning last week, with a total of 8 receptions for 144 yards and 3 touchdowns. While Manning remains in doubt with a shoulder injury (he’s almost universally expected to play), it would be reasonable to expect that backup quarterback Jared Lorenzen would look for a similar performance from Burress this week. Either way, expect the ball to fly and for Plaxico to test the Green Bay Packers defense.

Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt hosts his first home game as the Arizona Cardinals face the Seattle Seahawks. It’ll be a tough match as both teams posted some good performances in week 1. I think Seattle Running Back Shaun Alexander will supply some excellent value and entertainment this week. He traditionally averages close to 100 yards against the Cardinals and has scored 10 TDs in their last 5 meetings. If he gets a good jump this week, he could carry the Seahawks all the way to a win.

Champ Bailey will be worth keeping an eye on as the Denver Broncos play host to the Oakland Raiders this week. Coach Mike Shanahan has an excellent record against the Raiders and Champ is an interception specialist. In addition, his expanded duties on special teams ensure his contributions to the Broncos are spread as far across the field as possible. The decision to include the Champ on special teams was more than paid for with his touchdown saving tackle in week 1.

Good luck everyone, for week 2.

Posted in Plaxico Burress, Ben Roethlisberger, Oakland Raiders, Kevin Everett, Jared Lorenzen, Shaun Alexander, Mike Shanahan, Seattle Seahawks, Pittsburgh Steelers, Champ Bailey, Denver Broncos, Buffalo Bills, NFL Players, NFL Franchises/Teams, Analysis, Game, Eli Manning, Green Bay Packers, Arizona Cardinals, Ken Whisenhunt, NFL Coaches, NY Giants, NFL | No Comments »

Week 1 Instant Analysis

September 9th, 2007 5:59 pm
by Pro Set

Philadelphia 13

Green Bay 16

I always feel that college football players receive too much criticism for errors of judgement. On Sundays, the reverse is true. Green Bay scored 13 points from 3 PHI turnovers and that was, unsurprisingly, decisive. I said that the Eagles had to avoid turnovers and special teams touchdowns. The Eagles managed to yield to both categories on one play in the first quarter on a muffed punt recovery. PHI WR Greg Lewis was the culprit.

With a McNabb INT leading to a GB field goal, the Eagles had given up a 10 point start on the road. From then on PHI controlled the game without dominating. The Eagles ran well on early downs through RB Westbrook. This took pressure off McNabb. PHI built a 13-10 through some solid drives and disciplined defence, however it was inevitable that GB QB Favre would influence the result at some point. His effort on the tying FG drive late in the 3^rd quarter was phenomenal (7-9 for 66 yards), especially, of course, on 3^rd down.

So the game arrived at the not uncommon NFL scenario of scores level deep into the final quarter. GB had not looked like providing another long scoring drive or anything close, with the Packers rushing game shut down.

It looked like PHI would have the last chance to win the game when the Packers were stopped on 3^rd down inside the final minutes. But JR Reed, replacing Lewis as PR, sprinted towards the GB short punt at full speed and dived forward, muffing the catch. In all my time watching NFL games, this ranks as one of the worst individual mistakes that I have ever seen. There was no risk to possession by ignoring the ball. The punt was short, the game was tied. The game was then lost.

From a supposed professional, this was inexcusable. An example has to be set, and if Andy Reid does not cut him this week then I think that he simply has no future as a playoff coach. By not cutting him, Reid is admitting that the PR was not given specific instructions to ignore any difficult catch opportunity and simply to ensure that PHI secured possession.

Knowing when to instruct your players to leave a punt alone if in any doubt is an important feature of game management, and I openly questioned Reid’s game management in the preview. The Eagles gave this one away, and suffered a conference loss. The Packers defence was vastly improved on last season’s rabble, and I think that this makes McNabb’s effort very impressive.

Posted in Greg Lewis, Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, NFL Coaches, Andy Reid, Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles, Game, Analysis, NFL Franchises/Teams, Brett Favre, NFL | No Comments »

Keep your eye on these…

September 9th, 2007 8:13 am
by Big Dog

It’s a big week in football. Arguably the biggest week of the regular season as teams seek to stake out an early lead in the race to divisional titles and the playoffs. Beyond the usual suspects, here are some players to watch closely in the coming games.

Firstly look out for Randy Moss in his debut for the Patriots. In their first outing together, Tom Brady will be wanting to connect early and often with his star receiver. This is even more important given the fact that Moss has been under an injury cloud coming into this game and has missed most of the preseason. If these two can establish a rhythm, they could be a nightmare for opposing defences.

Secondly, keep an eye on Brett Favre. Sure, it seems an obvious (and maybe even cliched) thing to say, but it’s true. It’d be easy to think that Brett’s motivated by the records he’s set to tumble this season. He’s one win away from passing Dan Marino and matching John Elway. He’s only seven touchdown passes away from the record for most all time. Records like that would be distracting for anyone, but it’d be a big mistake to think that’s what gets Favre going.

As he demonstrated last season with all the talk surrounding his possible retirement, Brett is more interested in the task at hand than the talk off the field. In the same way that he is able to keep looking downfield as the first and second tackles make contact, he is hungry for the Packers to win. Even with a tough matchup against the Eagles, watch closely this week (and this season), for the records and the football.

Third, the battle of the backups. This will be one of the most interesting matchups of the first round. Damon Huard (KC Chiefs) and Matt Schaub (Houston) will be working to prove their value as they both move into starting positions. Both men have demonstrated that they belong in the league, and after years of patience and hard work, they’re now in a position to capitalise on the opportunity to shape the game.

There is a real mental toughness required to patiently ride the bench and to accept that even when you do play, you’re probably headed right back to the bench. Expect both men to demonstrate this toughness and patience as they go head to head. I’ve got no better reason for this than a good feeling, but I think Huard might come out in front.

Posted in Damon Huard, Matt Schaub, Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, Randy Moss, Tom Brady, Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles, Houston Texans, Analysis, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, Brett Favre, NFL | No Comments »

NFL 2007 Week 1 Featured Previews

September 9th, 2007 2:56 am
by Pro Set

Philadelphia @ Green Bay (1pm ET on FOX)

PHI: -3.5

GB: +3.5

These two teams have been regular conference opponents. GB will be looking to utilise CB Al Harris and CB Charles Woodson to shut down the PHI passing game. This will allow the GB front seven to use safety help in preventing the Eagles from running the ball and clamping down on the notorious short passing game so loved by Eagles coach Andy Reid.

The key to the PHI passing game is whether Eagles QB Donovan McNabb can air it out early and open up some room underneath. I do not think that he needs to complete the deep passes, but a couple of early fades (even deliberate overthrows to eliminate INT risk) will put doubt in the Packers secondary. No DB likes to be burnt after being given plenty of warning.

On the ground, Eagles RB Brian Westbrook must avoid being overly ambitious and must hit the first hole with conviction. This will supply the better down and distance opportunities that allow options to the Eagles in play-calling. McNabb is the key to the third down conversions, and must be prepared to use his legs as soon as his first read is covered. Not only will this lessen the reliance on the questionable PHI receivers, but will also lessen the risk of turnovers.

For the GB offence, QB Brett Favre simply has to be patient. Against a traditionally aggressive PHI defence, opportunities will come to those who wait. This clearly demands that the GB pass protection must be consistent. Few passers are better than Favre at keeping his eyes downfield, but that leaves him open to a lot of hits simultaneous to throwing.

The Packers running game is an unknown commodity, with former RB Ahman Green now at Houston. Expect the Eagles to play slightly more conservatively than usual on defence, trusting the front seven, especially new addition LB Takeo Spikes, to cover the run. This will allow the Eagles safeties to double Packers WR Donald Driver whenever necessary.

Overall, if the Eagles commit zero turnovers and allow no special teams touchdowns, they should win, despite having a coach with a history of questionable clock management. The only chance that the Packers have is to combine a positive turnover margin with a 100+ passer rating on third down.

Prediction: PHI win

Line: PHI

Chicago @ San Diego (4:15pm ET on FOX)

CHI: +6.5

SD: -6.5

The equation for CHI on the road is pretty simple: stop Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson and have QB Rex Grossman put on a flawless exhibition of game management. When the Bears have the ball RB Cedric Benson will have to win the first down battle against Chargers NT Jamal Williams. This means that the key match-up in the entire game for mine is Williams versus Bears C Olin Kreutz. Unless the Bears can run the ball inside, Grossman will be facing consistently difficult down and distance equations. In this scenario Chargers LB Shawn Merriman is a huge threat as a one-man pass rush.

On the other hand, if Benson can get some momentum, Grossman can use WR Bernard Berrian on the deep play action pass. The speed of Berrian is something that should concern the Chargers.

For the SD offence, the temptation will be there to challenge the Bears defence. I think that over-aggression would be a mistake. Chargers QB Philip Rivers has no need to prove how good he is, at the risk of turning the ball over and allowing the Bears to play with a lead. It seems like Chargers WR Eric Parker will be absent so expect TE Anotonio Gates to receive the primary coverage from the Bears, most probably LB Brian Urlacher running with him, aided by a safety over the top.

I would like to see the Chargers concentrate on field position and let the inevitable Grossman mistakes give them control. Whilst this is hardly the game plan of a potential Super Bowl champion, the win is all that counts here. This is not college football, there are no style points or votes, and doing the simple things well under former coach Marty Schottenheimer did get the Chargers to 14-2 last season.

In summary, if SD commits no turnovers and if K Nate Kaeding is true from inside 50 yards, the Chargers will win. The Bears will need a breakout game from Grossman and a consistent push from the O-line.

Prediction: SD win

Line: SD

NY Giants @ Dallas (8:15pm ET on NBC)

NYG: +5.5

DAL: -5.5

Despite the fact that the Giants have performed quite well in Dallas in recent seasons, notably the excellent win there in 2005, the mystique of DAL QB Tony Romo sees many predicting a strong season from the Cowboys.

When the Giants have the ball, QB Eli Manning has to make the right read early and throw to advantage. His throws too often cause the receiver to lose momentum or dive and this shackles the ability to run after the catch, let alone the increase in drops. As a pocket passer, his mechanics will have to improve otherwise third down conversions are going to be tough.

The DAL defence should concentrate on preventing NYG from exploiting the DAL pass rush with screens and swing passes. Players such as LB DeMarcus Ware and SS Roy Williams (when blitzing) need to recognise quickly when the blitz is welcome. The key for this will be if Ware can recognise the cut block at left tackle and read the quick release. This is how a good pass rusher can intercept slant passes and disrupt screens.

For DAL, the Giants running game should not worry them unduly. This means that they can expect decent time of possession. Patience will be necessary and with WR Terry Glenn likely to be out, the issue will be keeping WR Terrell Owens happy when he is being double covered. This will be a big test for the game management skills of QB Tony Romo. He throws well, but he has to erase the memories of the disaster at Seattle in the NFC Wild Card playoff.

I think that he will continue his great start to the NFL and lead DAL to a crucial (but tight) divisional win. The pressure from the Cowboys defence will force Eli Manning into errors. The best chance for NYG is if Manning can complete deep passes to WR Burress and also complete play action passes to TE Shockey. This all depends on the NYG O-line dominating, and that, to me, is unlikely.

Prediction: DAL

Line: DAL

Posted in Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles, Terry Glenn, San Diego Chargers, Chicago Bears, NFL Game Previews, NY Giants, Dallas Cowboys, Terrell Owens, Olin Kreutz, NFL on television, Analysis, Game, NFL on NBC, Eli Manning, Brett Favre, Eric Parker, Tony Romo, NFL | 1 Comment »