Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Thanksgiving Day Football Preview

November 25th, 2009 7:39 pm
by Big Dog

Thanksgiving isn’t a holiday that traditionally brings a lot of thankfulness to Detroit. They’ve lost their last few national appearances by wide margins and it’s a tough task again for them this week.

Green Bay Packers

Detroit’s pass defense is not doing the team any favours and it’s pretty reasonable to expect that Green Bay will be able to open up the field and let Rodgers put up some good numbers. If the Packers O-Line can get it together then Green Bay’s passing game should spread the Lions defense and create room for Grant when he’s needed.

Green Bay’s run defense is setting a standard. They haven’t let any rusher gain 100 yards since week 3, and they’ve faced the Vikings twice in that time. Detroit have struggled to put together a real ground game, often defaulting to the screen which can be effective but isn’t really the same thing.

What they’re thankful for: That they’re playing Detroit.

Detroit Lions

There’s a good chance that Detroit will struggle to live up to offensive expectations against Green Bay’s defensive backs. This will be especially true if Stafford really doesn’t play. If that happens then Culpepper will be required to manage the clock and minimise risks.

The Lions’ run defense is marginally better than their pass defense, and this week they’re helped by the fact that Ryan Grant isn’t the most electrifying running back in the league. Mostly this contest will come down to the battle at the line. If Detroit’s D-Line can gain dominance against the Packers O-Line then they’re in with a chance. Of course, this also depends on the line not making any embarrassing mistakes.

What they’re thankful for: That turkey, stuffing and beer will render most of their fans numb to the result.

Prediction

It seems pretty clear that Green Bay have the advantage in this holiday showdown. Packers 31 – 17

Posted in Aaron Rodgers, Analysis, Daunte Culpepper, Detroit Lions, Game, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL Thanksgiving Day Football, NFL on television, NFL schedule | No Comments »

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings – Week 4 Monday Night Football Preview

October 5th, 2009 8:16 am
by Big Dog

Monday Night Football is brewing up a storm tonight as the Vikings play host to the Green Bay Packers. It should be a fierce battle as the Vikings finally get to experience what it feels like to face the Packers with Brett Favre on their side.

Green Bay Packers

With Chad Clifton questionable for the game, and with the Vikings currently sitting as the 4th most aggressive defense in the league, Rodgers is really going to need to step up his game and improve his passing percentage. He’s done well to avoid giving the ball away so far this season, but he has to make some plays if the Packers are to have any hopes of the win here. A lot of defensive attention will be paid by the Packers to Favre, but in all honesty that’s a simple distraction and Mike McCarthy will surely be doing his best to instead try to contain the Vikings running game, while maintaining reasonable coverage. It’s an easier task than it sounds because while the Vikings can definitely run the football, Favre is still playing like he thinks he’s a kid, taking chances and making throws. If the Pack’s want to win this one, they’re going to need to play more like Brett would.

Minnesota Vikings

I’ve heard tell that “Favring” is a new verb, meaning to retire and then comeback, retire and then comeback. While there’s little doubt that Brett Favre has toyed with football fans everywhere in his off-season flip-flopping, there’s also clearly no question that he’s come to Minnesota to really play football. He’s not riding Peterson’s hard running path to glory, instead working the pocket and making plays to ensure that the Vikings really do have a balanced attack. He’s only given away one interception so far this season and the Vikings defense have been crushingly effective. If they can take advantage of key matchups at the line, expect the Vikings pass rush to become intimately familiar with Aaron Rodgers.

Prediction

There’s a lot at stake for both teams in tonight’s game. Pride, divisional standing, history, personal scores – all of these come into play. At the end of the day, right now the Vikings seem to have a more cohesive football team as a whole and better options to take the win at home. I’m going Vikings 24 – 21

Posted in Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson, Analysis, Brett Favre, Game, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Monday Night Football, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, NFL schedule, Week 4 Instant Analysis | 2 Comments »

Chicago @ Green Bay Preview

September 13th, 2009 7:30 pm
by Pro Set

The NFL does not need to schedule important divisional matches in Week 1 to ‘spark’ interest in a new season. But, what’s done is done, so let’s focus on what will dominate focus tonight: Bears QB Jay Cutler taking on Packers QB Aaron Rodgers.

With Rodgers now an entrenched starting QB, I feel that he is actually ahead of Cutler. This is especially so early in the season. Coming out of the fair-weather Pac-10, Rodgers is an excellent fast-track quarterback. His opening month last season was something special. Cutler is a prototype pocket passer, but dropping from 8-5 to 8-8 and elimination must pose a question over his leadership abilities.

There have already been some disastrous home opener losses today: Carolina and Tampa Bay headline those. I think that the Packers will be too good at scrimmage. For the Bears to win, turnovers and special teams will need to work in their favour.

Posted in Analysis, Chicago Bears, Game, Green Bay Packers, NFL, NFL Game Previews, NFL on NBC, NFL on television, NFL schedule | No Comments »

Week 12 Analysis: New York Jets @ Dallas

November 22nd, 2007 10:29 pm
by Big Dog

First of all, make sure you catch up with Pro Set’s analysis of Green Bay @ Detroit here. It provides great insight into not only what happened in the game today, but also gives you a glimpse of what Green Bay will need to accomplish next week against Dallas.

Which brings us to what Dallas did today. Nobody could reasonably claim to be completely surprised by the dominance of the Cowboys this week, even after the New York Jets managed a surprise victory over Pittsburgh last week.

However, the keen observer won’t be fooled by the blowout indicated by the final score. The truth is that while Dallas QB Tony Romo had a great night and led the Cowboys to a comprehensive win, this game was more about defense than offense. Simply put, both of the Jets’ lines, defensive and offensive, were dominated.

In particular, the inability of the Jets’ O-Line to contain the pass rush meant that Jets’ QB Kellen Clemens spent most of the night trying to get passes away under immense pressure. Pressure led by the ever capable Dallas LB DeMarcus Ware, who broke through on several occasions and disrupted a lot of New York’s passing game. In addition, Dallas’ coverage was just better and was summed up nicely when CB Terence Newman returned an interception 50 yards for a TD late in the 2nd Quarter.

To make matters worse, it’s tough for any team that has to try and contain Romo, WR Terrell Owens and TE Jason Witten. The Jets’ did their best with this task, trying to pay special attention to Owens and Witten in coverage, while applying pressure in the pass rush. They did actually manage to break through and sack Romo three times, but it just wasn’t enough.

It sounds simple, but it’s true, you just can’t win football games if you can’t control the line of scrimmage. The Jets couldn’t, and so they didn’t.

For those who are waiting with great anticipation for the clash between the Cowboys and Packers next week, there are some points to take out of this game. The first of these is that the Cowboys can be disrupted. Owens was much quieter today than usual and clearly the special attention paid to him had an effect. He still took several crucial catches, including a late TD pass, but his overall numbers were much lower.

Secondly, Romo can be disrupted with good pass rushing. The Jets managed to get to him several times and in the end forced the Cowboys to make use of RB Julius Jones and RB Marion Barber to great effect.

All of this gives Green Bay hope for their meeting next week. It won’t be easy by any stretch, but if they can contain Owens and Witten in coverage, their D-Line might be able to drive the pressure needed to get to Romo. If they are successful at that, they’ll then need to do a much better job of containing the Cowboys’ running backs than the Jets did. In the end, Green Bay need to keep their offense on the field as long as possible, the best way to keep Romo, Owens, Witten, Jones and Barber out of the game is simply to leave them on the sidelines.

Posted in Analysis, Dallas Cowboys, DeMarcus Ware, Game, Green Bay Packers, Jason Witten, Julius Jones, Kellen Clemens, Marion Barber, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL on television, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, Terence Newman, Terrell Owens, Tony Romo | No Comments »

Week 12 Analysis: Green Bay @ Detroit

November 22nd, 2007 9:53 pm
by Pro Set

After the early success of Detroit on the ground, hopes were raised at Ford Field. Detroit RB Kevin Jones has proven in the past that he is a capable featured back. One could sense the crowd anticipating another miserable NFC domed outing for Green Bay QB Brett Favre.

As the half wore on, however, the shape of the game irreversibly unfolded. Detroit cannot generate enough pressure from its front four to hide its miserable secondary. Losing CB Dre Bly to Denver has weakened an already patchy secondary. DT Shaun Rogers gets all the face time, but too often he lumbers off the field after second down because he is tired from providing the inside run defense as well as the pass rush. With Green Bay passing so much (4 rushes: 31 passes mid third quarter) it was incumbent on Rogers and the DET line to exert pressure. This is meant to be the strong suit of DET coach Rod Marinelli.

The second half was an exhibition. Favre looked completely comfortable. He completed 20 passes straight. He completed every pass that he threw in the third quarter. His first incompletion for the half was when WR Greg Jones could not get a second foot down in the left edge of the DET end-zone. Inevitably, DET eventually blitzed. And the Packers were ready for it. They had the screen pass ready to go and only an ankle grab prevented a huge catch and run. This play call, which had perfectly anticipated the blitz, demonstrated the superiority of the Packers at all levels of this fixture. The fact that DET did not blitz more was ample proof of the lack of confidence that DET has in its secondary to cover man-to-man. The contrast with CB Charles Woodson and CB AL Harris of the Packers was very pronounced.

For Detroit, the late comeback of sorts was rendered pointless when GB escaped a 1^st and 20 without even facing a third down inside the final minutes, with DET within 8 points. The inability of the DET front seven to close running lanes between the tackles denied them any chance of a late tying drive. Indeed, the TD reception from WR Roy Williams that closed the gap was notable for the fact that he never actually grounded his second foot. He rolled off a Packer over the end-line, but the Back Judge was so focussed on whether he maintained possession that the score was given.

Clearly GB looks good. The late rushing bonanza was distorting of the influence that the GB passing attack had on the game. GB travels to Irving, TX, next Thursday night in the NFC game of the season. Please don’t give credit to NFL Network for “selecting” this game. They just got lucky, since the NFL policy is to give teams a week’s rest where possible. So the next Thursday night game was always going to be between two of the teams that played on Thanksgiving.

For Detroit, the two huge home losses of the past five days will crush their season. QB Jon Kitna played well, but, as I have mentioned earlier this season, he needs to shake the ghosts of 1999 where a great start capitulated and Seattle missed the first round bye and lost a home Wild Card playoff. I watched him closely today. He is a man whose confidence is not where it should be. DE Aaron Kampman could tell you more. He was next to Kitna for most of the DET possessions. In a team that has invested so heavily in receivers, Kitna needs to take three steps and release. In his defense, until the Martz retreads of WR Sean McDonald and WR Mike Furrey stop dropping passes, Detroit cannot win against a quality opponent.

Posted in Analysis, Brett Favre, Detroit Lions, Game, Green Bay Packers, Jon Kitna, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, Rod Marinelli | No Comments »

NFL Week 11 Analysis: Washington @ Dallas – Final

November 18th, 2007 9:23 pm
by Big Dog

The second half of this game was every bit exciting and eventful as expected. The early stages of the 3rd quarter were slow to start but things started to turn when Dallas Cowboys Head Coach Wade Phillips successfully challenged an INT by Washington Redskins LB Rocky McIntosh.

On the very next play, the Redskins were called for pass interference which turned it into a 51 yard play for the Cowboys. Dallas QB Tony Romo then completed a 31 yard TD pass to WR Terrell Owens.

That pattern continued for pretty much the rest of the game with Owens receiving all 4 of Romo’s touchdown passes, equalling a Cowboys team record for TD receptions in a game. Owens has also climbed to 3rd all time number of receptions. Romo is additionally on his way to setting a new team record for TD passes in a season.

All of this could lead the casual observer to assume that Dallas had a pretty easy/comfortable time of it, and that would be a mistake. The true story is that while Dallas did come away with the win, they didn’t particularly impress. At the end of the day, they did what everybody expected them to do, win at home. They really only got away with it because Owens managed to make Redskins CB Shawn Springs’ day a living hell.

It almost looked personal in a way. Springs wrestled Owens to the ground on his first reception of the day, and Owens took exception to being manhandled when he’d be forced back far enough that the play should have been called dead. To be fair to Springs, the whistle hadn’t blown and it was his job to keep going until it was blown. No flags on the play, but Owens was visibly emotional for the rest of the game and managed to make big breaks, confuse the Redskins coverage and give Romo enough room to make sure they both had a great day. Springs was meant to be covering TO most of the time, and TO worked hard to make sure he didn’t.

That said, the highlight performance of the game was definitely Washington QB Jason Campbell (33-54, 348yds, 2TD, INT). Campbell showed great patience, presence and poise in the pocket, waiting for plays to develop and executing under intense pressure, particularly from Dallas LB DeMarcus Ware. Campbell was especially good when the Redskins were working their hurry-up offense and seemed more comfortable with the rhythm of that part of the game.

All in all, it was an entertaining and tight game that bodes well for the future of the Redskins. The NFC is now shaping up to be quite a contest with the Green Bay Packers and the Dallas Cowboys now both 9-1 for the season.

Posted in Analysis, DeMarcus Ware, Denver Broncos, Game, Green Bay Packers, Jason Campbell, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL on FOX, NFL on television, Rocky McIntosh, Shawn Springs, Terrell Owens, Tony Romo, Wade Phillips, Washington Redskins | No Comments »

NFL Fantasy Football Week 3

September 21st, 2007 9:57 am
by Big Dog

One of the most intriguing matchups of the week is San Diego at Green Bay. The Chargers have a lot to prove, if they want to live up to the incredibly high expectations that their 14-2 record established last season, they need to win their next 14 straight.

As you may know, that’s not the kind of crazy talk prediction I’m willing to participate in. That said, San Diego have to make something happen this week to have any realistic chance of salvaging their season.

At the same time Brett Favre and the Packers have won their last six games. It’s easy to forget last season, and usually I’d be telling you that form last season doesn’t provide a solid basis for this season. Even so, everyone knows that last year the Packers were working with a very young side that lacked experience at the NFL level. By the end of last season we were seeing this team start to come good.

This late season form has carried into this year with the Packers putting up strong performances in the first two weeks. Last week Tom Brady, Randy Moss and the New England Offensive Line demonstrated that San Diego are vulnerable in the air. The Chargers’ secondary leaves a lot to be desired and it won’t take much separation for the passing game to open up. I’d be expecting good numbers this week from Brett Favre and his main receiving options, Donald Driver and James Jones.

Interestingly, I also think that this matchup will be important for LaDainian Tomlinson. Last week LT was held to only 43 yards from 18 attempts. It’s possible to argue that he hasn’t really lit up the field so far this season. If San Diego is to have a chance, they need their league MVP to do his thing. Expect an extra effort from Tomlinson this week.

Denver Broncos kicker, Jason Elam, has been the deciding factor in the last two weeks for the Broncos. It could well come down to field position and kicking again as the Jacksonville Jaguars come to play in Denver.

Atlanta play host to the Carolina Panthers this week. Panthers DE Julius Peppers will be looking to build on his fearsome reputation as a Quarterback’s nightmare. The Falcons have already given up 13 sacks this season and you can bet Peppers will be looking to push that total ever higher.

Good luck with week 3.

Posted in Atlanta Falcons, Brett Favre, Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos, Donald Driver, Game, Green Bay Packers, Jacksonville Jaguars, James Jones, Jason Elam, Julius Peppers, LaDainian Tomlinson, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, New England Patriots, Randy Moss, San Diego Chargers, Tom Brady | No Comments »

Week 2 Fantasy Players

September 16th, 2007 3:38 am
by Big Dog

There’s no question that the Buffalo Bills have had an emotionally challenging week as they’ve dealt with the news of Kevin Everett’s injury and then the nearly miraculous nature of his recover thus far. In spite of the distractions, expect the Bills to be playing with a lot of commitment and energy as their injured defense look to hold up against the attack of the Pittsburgh Steelers as led by Ben Roethlisberger.

That said, Roethlisberger himself has a lot to be playing for this week. He’s been stung by criticism of his decision making, game management and his performance last season. He’s got a lot to prove and teammates have reported that he’s training and playing with the drive and commitment of a man with a chip on his shoulder. Add to this the fact that the Steelers defense managed to force five turnovers and six sacks last week. If that proves to be a trend, then the Steelers offense is going to get plenty of playing time. I’d expect Big Ben to be taking full advantage of the Bills’ injuries this week and looking for some impressive numbers from him.

Plaxico Burress was a popular outlet for Eli Manning last week, with a total of 8 receptions for 144 yards and 3 touchdowns. While Manning remains in doubt with a shoulder injury (he’s almost universally expected to play), it would be reasonable to expect that backup quarterback Jared Lorenzen would look for a similar performance from Burress this week. Either way, expect the ball to fly and for Plaxico to test the Green Bay Packers defense.

Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt hosts his first home game as the Arizona Cardinals face the Seattle Seahawks. It’ll be a tough match as both teams posted some good performances in week 1. I think Seattle Running Back Shaun Alexander will supply some excellent value and entertainment this week. He traditionally averages close to 100 yards against the Cardinals and has scored 10 TDs in their last 5 meetings. If he gets a good jump this week, he could carry the Seahawks all the way to a win.

Champ Bailey will be worth keeping an eye on as the Denver Broncos play host to the Oakland Raiders this week. Coach Mike Shanahan has an excellent record against the Raiders and Champ is an interception specialist. In addition, his expanded duties on special teams ensure his contributions to the Broncos are spread as far across the field as possible. The decision to include the Champ on special teams was more than paid for with his touchdown saving tackle in week 1.

Good luck everyone, for week 2.

Posted in Analysis, Arizona Cardinals, Ben Roethlisberger, Buffalo Bills, Champ Bailey, Denver Broncos, Eli Manning, Game, Green Bay Packers, Jared Lorenzen, Ken Whisenhunt, Kevin Everett, Mike Shanahan, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NY Giants, Oakland Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers, Plaxico Burress, Seattle Seahawks, Shaun Alexander | No Comments »

Week 1 Instant Analysis

September 9th, 2007 5:59 pm
by Pro Set

Philadelphia 13

Green Bay 16

I always feel that college football players receive too much criticism for errors of judgement. On Sundays, the reverse is true. Green Bay scored 13 points from 3 PHI turnovers and that was, unsurprisingly, decisive. I said that the Eagles had to avoid turnovers and special teams touchdowns. The Eagles managed to yield to both categories on one play in the first quarter on a muffed punt recovery. PHI WR Greg Lewis was the culprit.

With a McNabb INT leading to a GB field goal, the Eagles had given up a 10 point start on the road. From then on PHI controlled the game without dominating. The Eagles ran well on early downs through RB Westbrook. This took pressure off McNabb. PHI built a 13-10 through some solid drives and disciplined defence, however it was inevitable that GB QB Favre would influence the result at some point. His effort on the tying FG drive late in the 3^rd quarter was phenomenal (7-9 for 66 yards), especially, of course, on 3^rd down.

So the game arrived at the not uncommon NFL scenario of scores level deep into the final quarter. GB had not looked like providing another long scoring drive or anything close, with the Packers rushing game shut down.

It looked like PHI would have the last chance to win the game when the Packers were stopped on 3^rd down inside the final minutes. But JR Reed, replacing Lewis as PR, sprinted towards the GB short punt at full speed and dived forward, muffing the catch. In all my time watching NFL games, this ranks as one of the worst individual mistakes that I have ever seen. There was no risk to possession by ignoring the ball. The punt was short, the game was tied. The game was then lost.

From a supposed professional, this was inexcusable. An example has to be set, and if Andy Reid does not cut him this week then I think that he simply has no future as a playoff coach. By not cutting him, Reid is admitting that the PR was not given specific instructions to ignore any difficult catch opportunity and simply to ensure that PHI secured possession.

Knowing when to instruct your players to leave a punt alone if in any doubt is an important feature of game management, and I openly questioned Reid’s game management in the preview. The Eagles gave this one away, and suffered a conference loss. The Packers defence was vastly improved on last season’s rabble, and I think that this makes McNabb’s effort very impressive.

Posted in Analysis, Andy Reid, Brett Favre, Brian Westbrook, Donovan McNabb, Game, Green Bay Packers, Greg Lewis, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, Philadelphia Eagles | No Comments »

Keep your eye on these…

September 9th, 2007 8:13 am
by Big Dog

It’s a big week in football. Arguably the biggest week of the regular season as teams seek to stake out an early lead in the race to divisional titles and the playoffs. Beyond the usual suspects, here are some players to watch closely in the coming games.

Firstly look out for Randy Moss in his debut for the Patriots. In their first outing together, Tom Brady will be wanting to connect early and often with his star receiver. This is even more important given the fact that Moss has been under an injury cloud coming into this game and has missed most of the preseason. If these two can establish a rhythm, they could be a nightmare for opposing defences.

Secondly, keep an eye on Brett Favre. Sure, it seems an obvious (and maybe even cliched) thing to say, but it’s true. It’d be easy to think that Brett’s motivated by the records he’s set to tumble this season. He’s one win away from passing Dan Marino and matching John Elway. He’s only seven touchdown passes away from the record for most all time. Records like that would be distracting for anyone, but it’d be a big mistake to think that’s what gets Favre going.

As he demonstrated last season with all the talk surrounding his possible retirement, Brett is more interested in the task at hand than the talk off the field. In the same way that he is able to keep looking downfield as the first and second tackles make contact, he is hungry for the Packers to win. Even with a tough matchup against the Eagles, watch closely this week (and this season), for the records and the football.

Third, the battle of the backups. This will be one of the most interesting matchups of the first round. Damon Huard (KC Chiefs) and Matt Schaub (Houston) will be working to prove their value as they both move into starting positions. Both men have demonstrated that they belong in the league, and after years of patience and hard work, they’re now in a position to capitalise on the opportunity to shape the game.

There is a real mental toughness required to patiently ride the bench and to accept that even when you do play, you’re probably headed right back to the bench. Expect both men to demonstrate this toughness and patience as they go head to head. I’ve got no better reason for this than a good feeling, but I think Huard might come out in front.

Posted in Analysis, Brett Favre, Damon Huard, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, Matt Schaub, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles, Randy Moss, Tom Brady | No Comments »