Week 14 Analysis: Dallas @ Detroit

December 10th, 2007 6:54 am
by Big Dog

With most pundits declaring that the Detroit Lions are pretty much done for the season it looked today like QB Jon Kitna and the rest of the Lions may have had the fire to pull off an amazing upset win against the second best team in the NFL right now, the Dallas Cowboys.

The Lions took the early lead and stayed there for much of the game. Kitna managed to put up good numbers (22 of 36 for 248 yards) with no interceptions. The telling statistic was that he also had no passing touchdowns. The Lions also managed to gain 152 rushing yards against a Cowboys defense that is very tough on the run. In the end though, there were two drives that defined the outcome of the game. Early in the 4th quarter, the Lions had the chance to stretch the lead to more than a TD, with a 35 yard field goal attempt. Detroit K Jason Hanson would normally find this well within his range but this time the kick sailed just wide, to the right of the uprights. This missed attempt is sure to be haunting the Lions staff, players and fans.

The second key drive began when Dallas gained possession at their own 17 yard line with 2 minutes 15 seconds left on the clock and no timeouts remaining. Dallas QB Tony Romo led the march down the field, connecting regularly with TE Jason Witten (as he had all game). Detroit’s great sin was that they constantly allowed Cowboys receivers to find the sideline and stop the clock. In the end Romo connected with Witten for a 16 yard TD pass. The point after was successful and that sealed the win. This is the Cowboys’ ninth win from behind this season.

In many ways, it’s that statistic that makes the Cowboys’ record even more impressive than the Patriots. The Patriots are easily dominating almost every team that they meet and have only really been put to the test twice this season. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are having to work harder to get their wins, and the toughness that is bred by that sort of competition will serve them well when it comes to the playoffs.

Posted in Detroit Lions, New England Patriots, Jon Kitna, Jason Witten, Jason Hanson, Dallas Cowboys, Tony Romo, Game, Analysis, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL | No Comments »

Week 12 Analysis: Green Bay @ Detroit

November 22nd, 2007 9:53 pm
by Pro Set

After the early success of Detroit on the ground, hopes were raised at Ford Field. Detroit RB Kevin Jones has proven in the past that he is a capable featured back. One could sense the crowd anticipating another miserable NFC domed outing for Green Bay QB Brett Favre.

As the half wore on, however, the shape of the game irreversibly unfolded. Detroit cannot generate enough pressure from its front four to hide its miserable secondary. Losing CB Dre Bly to Denver has weakened an already patchy secondary. DT Shaun Rogers gets all the face time, but too often he lumbers off the field after second down because he is tired from providing the inside run defense as well as the pass rush. With Green Bay passing so much (4 rushes: 31 passes mid third quarter) it was incumbent on Rogers and the DET line to exert pressure. This is meant to be the strong suit of DET coach Rod Marinelli.

The second half was an exhibition. Favre looked completely comfortable. He completed 20 passes straight. He completed every pass that he threw in the third quarter. His first incompletion for the half was when WR Greg Jones could not get a second foot down in the left edge of the DET end-zone. Inevitably, DET eventually blitzed. And the Packers were ready for it. They had the screen pass ready to go and only an ankle grab prevented a huge catch and run. This play call, which had perfectly anticipated the blitz, demonstrated the superiority of the Packers at all levels of this fixture. The fact that DET did not blitz more was ample proof of the lack of confidence that DET has in its secondary to cover man-to-man. The contrast with CB Charles Woodson and CB AL Harris of the Packers was very pronounced.

For Detroit, the late comeback of sorts was rendered pointless when GB escaped a 1st and 20 without even facing a third down inside the final minutes, with DET within 8 points. The inability of the DET front seven to close running lanes between the tackles denied them any chance of a late tying drive. Indeed, the TD reception from WR Roy Williams that closed the gap was notable for the fact that he never actually grounded his second foot. He rolled off a Packer over the end-line, but the Back Judge was so focussed on whether he maintained possession that the score was given.

Clearly GB looks good. The late rushing bonanza was distorting of the influence that the GB passing attack had on the game. GB travels to Irving, TX, next Thursday night in the NFC game of the season. Please don’t give credit to NFL Network for “selecting” this game. They just got lucky, since the NFL policy is to give teams a week’s rest where possible. So the next Thursday night game was always going to be between two of the teams that played on Thanksgiving.

For Detroit, the two huge home losses of the past five days will crush their season. QB Jon Kitna played well, but, as I have mentioned earlier this season, he needs to shake the ghosts of 1999 where a great start capitulated and Seattle missed the first round bye and lost a home Wild Card playoff. I watched him closely today. He is a man whose confidence is not where it should be. DE Aaron Kampman could tell you more. He was next to Kitna for most of the DET possessions. In a team that has invested so heavily in receivers, Kitna needs to take three steps and release. In his defense, until the Martz retreads of WR Sean McDonald and WR Mike Furrey stop dropping passes, Detroit cannot win against a quality opponent.

Posted in NFL Coaches, Detroit Lions, Jon Kitna, Rod Marinelli, Green Bay Packers, Brett Favre, Game, Analysis, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL | No Comments »

NFL Week 7 Featured Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions

October 17th, 2007 8:24 am
by Pro Set

Tampa Bay (4-2) @ Detroit (3-2) 1pm ET on FOX

Former NFC Central rivals clash in a pivotal conference match-up. The game is especially important for Detroit. The Lions are in danger of falling further behind Green Bay in the NFC North, whereas the Buccaneers are leading the mediocre NFC South.

Detroit

On the ground, Detroit is present in form only. I am sure (with apologies to John Madden) that big old offensive linemen like C Dominic Raiola and T Jeff Backus would prefer more emphasis on the running game. G Damien Woody left the Patriots to come to Detroit. I hope that he actually needed the extra money. RB Tatum Bell is another in a long line of backs that have come from Denver only to struggle at another NFL city. And he has been seeking a trade. With that hope now extinguished, Bell has a chance to prove his professionalism The Buccaneers have been fairly solid in run defense this season. But in truth, looking at the depth chart, the TB front four is a pale shadow of the unit that strangled NFL offenses from 1998 thru 2002, claiming a Superbowl. Statistically, however, the unit is performing.

In the air, it is all about whether QB Jon Kitna can put together a full game. Kitna is completing well over 60% of his pass attempts. He will be looking to hit WR Roy Williams and WR Calvin Johnson over the top of the Bucs pass defense. The Buccaneers used to pride themselves on stopping the deep pass, and tackling any receiver immediately when a reception was made. This means that the key issue here is whether Kitna can hit the talented DET receivers in stride. For the TB pass defense, there is no secret in how to beat Kitna. Pressure up the middle has always brought out the worst in him.

Tampa Bay

The Tampa Bay running game is even less threatening than the Detroit version. The Buccaneers traded with Kansas City to acquire RB Michael Bennett. He is a good runner. But to expect him to make a real difference in the famously complex offense of Jon Gruden is unrealistic. Remember, too, that he will be a liability in pass protection. This limits his ability to be a pass catching threat on third down. Expect QB Jeff Garcia to provide the most potent running threat.

In the passing game, the Buccaneers will aim to exploit the Teflon-esque Detriot secondary. There is a reason that NFL watchers keep seeing S Idrees Bashir and S Kenoy Kennedy change teams: they are just not very good. When a team is facing WR Joey Galloway, safety help is critical. With DT Shaun Rogers not playing, the pass rush that DET would have to possess to pressure Garcia will not be there. In a sight for the ages, expect the Buccaneers to march up and down the field. Do not underestimate the depth of the TB tight end group, which could further exploit the poor DET safeties as well as stretching the zone coverage.

Prediction: Tampa Bay

Posted in NFL Game Previews, Jon Gruden, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Detroit Lions, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, Game | No Comments »

Week 2 Instant Analysis

September 16th, 2007 10:00 pm
by Pro Set

Dallas 37-20 Miami

The final score was not indicative of the real struggle that occurred in this game. Miami opened the game with a solid rushing attack. Clearly the aim was to set up deep passing plays. QB Trent Green slightly under-threw WR Marty Booker on the left sideline fly route and CB Anthony Henry, using inside trail technique, was able to pick off the under-throw because he was allowing for safety help over the top. After this incident the Dolphins switched the emphasis in their passing game.

Dallas built a 10-3 lead with long, sustained drives that brought about evident tiredness in the Miami pursuit. It became clear that when either defense did not force a 3 & out or produce a takeaway, it would be hard to sustain consistent pass pressure and pursuit.

The MIA FG drive in the final two mins of the first half was a vindication for the changing focus of the MIA passing attack. Knowing that DAL would respect Chambers and Booker by defending over the top, the Dolphins ran plenty of intermediate curls and come backs that enabled them to move the ball. With S Roy Williams often nosing around the line, where he is best (more on that later), DAL seemed to have a consistent three deep shell on first down, with S Ken Hamlin playing centerfield, forcing the DAL corners to surrender large first down cushions, hence the deep curls. This is where CB Terence Newman was sorely missed.

DAL 10-6 MIA (halftime)

With MIA taking a 13-10 lead off the opening drive of the 3rd quarter, by again utilizing first down passing, DAL looked in trouble. This trouble increased when DAL was forced to punt, trailling 13-10 still. I thought that the most important series of the game was the one that followed the DAL punt. The Cowboys gave up an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on the punt coverage (player not immediately returning inbounds after being forced out). Having given up two straight scoring drives, the Cowboys held the Dolphins to a 3 & out.

Credit to the FOX commentators (Kenny Albert and Daryl Johnston) for pre-emptively predicting peril for MIA when a penalty forced the Fish to re-punt the ball. From the moment that WR Patrick Crayton broke the first wave, the momentum swung.

DAL QB Tony Romo (14-29; 186yds; 2TD) took over the game completely. His pocket presence was outstanding. I said in the preview that Romo will get the ball off rather than take the sack, and on this drive we saw two consecutive examples. On 2nd & 8 from the MIA 14, Romo threw the ball off his back foot to Crayton, breaking towards the endzone on the reverse scramble drill, and drawing the pass interference penalty. Poor work from FOX here as Johnston failed to explain that, even though the penalized action was by MIA CB Travis Daniels in holding the jersey of Crayton, the fact that this occurrred after the pass was thrown caused the penalty to be assessed as pass interference. This is a significant benefit to the offense since PI gives a 1st down a the spot of the foul, whereas defensive holding is 5 yards from the previous spot and a 1st down. On the next play Romo was corralled and almost brought down by DT Vonnie Holliday on the play action fake, but threw the pass anyway just before his knees hit the ground. So always expect Romo to release the ball, but this will mean more fumbles and more deflected INT opportunities throughout the season. When it works, however, it looks talismanic.

With DAL having regained the lead (DAL 17-13 MIA) it was crucial for MIA to answer. With the DAL corners playing closer due the MIA intermediate passing attack as described above, the MIA offense sensibly looked for the quick separation patterns. The slant or skinny post is always the best, for it is hard for the CB, once the WR has inside position, to get between the receiver and the ball. So Trent Green attempted the skinny post to Chambers but he overthrew it and S Ken Hamlin, again coming over from deep centrefield, intercepted. DAL turned this takeaway into a FG that gave the Cowboys a touchdown lead.

With MIA on the ropes, Green needed to lead them on a solid drive. On the second play of the ensuing possession, a fumbled exchange from C to QB bled the belief from MIA. This was where the game was lost. MIA simply got too impatient and thought that they had cracked the DAL defence by their 1st down throwing.

DAL took the turnover in for for another FG, and again it was poor work by FOX that no-one mentioned that the ball went through off the upright. In the NFL, when the kickers usually kick from straight in front, it is very rare for a ball to strike the upright and go through. If you don’t believe me, ask Ryan Longwell, whose final seconds game winning FG attempt hit the upright and missed at DET today. The key to DAL getting in range on this drive was the use of WR Terrell Owens on a crossing route on 3rd & 7 that picked up 12 yards. In my opinion, Owens is best when he can get moving, take a relatively easy catch (he dropped several passes earlier in the game), and maximise the run after catch yardage.

The 10 point lead was never seriously threatened, and the Cowboys improved to 2-0, whilst the Dolphins remained winless.

DAL 37-20 MIA (final)

Overall, I though that Romo was superb, and although I fear that he will have multiple turnover games not infrequently, he showed today that when he’s on, it translates into wins. Don’t be seduced by the big rushing number of DAL, a lot of it was garbage time all or nothing plays (where the first line of defense is the only line). DAL would be well advised to note the ease with which MIA moved the ball and the fact that the edge pass rush was very quiet.

Miami showed flashes of offensive life, but cannot rely on the pass to the extent that became evident today. Also obvious is that 5 turnovers (4 INT) will not bring many wins, despite what Detroit fans might think. New C Samson Satele looks strong and does have long hair, but his poor snap caused the 3rd quarter lost fumble on the exchange, and that C-QB relationship (the most important in football, since it happens every play) must develop quickly. I did not think that Tim Ruddy would get a mention, but the Dolphins could have used him today. The bright spot for MIA is that Chambers and Booker remain a potent combination, although I am sure that Trent Green misses the central Kansas City target of TE Tony Gonzalez, since MIA TE David Martin is not a major threat. MIA can recover more easily than any other 0-2 team, since both losses were inter-conference.

Posted in Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Ken Hamlin, Marty Booker, Anthony Henry, Patrick Crayton, Travis Daniels, Ryan Longwell, David Martin, Tony Gonzalez, Tim Ruddy, Samson Satele, Week 2 Instant Analysis, NFL on FOX, Terrell Owens, Kansas City Chiefs, Tony Romo, NFL on television, Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions, Vonnie Holliday, Chris Chambers, Terence Newman, Roy Williams (DAL), Trent Green, NFL | No Comments »

Week 2 Early Notes

September 13th, 2007 10:03 am
by Pro Set

Opening week saw some impressive performances from units of teams, but very few impressive performances from teams as a whole. For regular NFL watchers, by the end of a season you have a fairly good view of what each unit of each team will offer: a statistically valid sample, if you like.

Dangerous as it is from one week, let’s examine some improved units from last season and what they face in Week 2 as they try to prove themselves to be the real deal.

AFC Offense

New England: it might seem ridiculous to focus on the Pats, but the line seems stronger up the middle (remember they could not ground out second half drives in last season’s AFC title game), WR Randy Moss adds a fearsome threat when combined with QB Tom Brady, and RB Laurence Maroney should improve further. I think that San Diego, who visit the Patriots this Sunday (night), has a suspect secondary which they try to hide by over-emphasising the blitz. So the test for New England is simple: protect Brady from the middle push (especially NT Jamal Williams on early downs), as well as protecting him from the edge rush of LB Shawne Merriman and LB Shaun Phillips (especially on 3rd down), and the SD secondary will be truly stretched.

NFC Offense

Detroit: With the addition of Georgia Tech alumnus WR Calvin Johnson, the Lions have a fearsome passing attack. WR Roy Williams seems to be on the path to join the NFL elite. Lions QB Jon Kitna has made a habit of starting seasons well, but fading late (especially Seattle 1999). For the Lions to prove themselves to be the real deal they need to win this home divisional game (vs MIN) this Sunday. Road wins against AFC teams sound impressive, but in reality are never as valuable as a home win in the division. The Vikings defense will be better than the ageing Raiders unit, which last season ranked well due to the fact that other teams took no risks against the Raiders’ defense because there was no need.

Posted in Detroit Lions, Oakland Raiders, Jamal Williams, Jon Kitna, Randy Moss, Tom Brady, Game, Analysis, San Diego Chargers, New England Patriots, NFL | No Comments »