NY Giants @ Denver Thursday Night Football Preview

November 26th, 2009 8:16 am
by Pro Set

Denver is finally doing justice to my pessimism about Broncos football. As noted in last week’s Chargers at Broncos preview, Denver cannot run the ball. Early in the season Denver beat Dallas and New England at Mile High on big play catches from WR Brandon Marshall. The only thing he can hold onto now is RB Knowshon Moreno’s jersey as they fight over fumbles. The bizarre faux start of QB Kyle Orton last week intrigued me. The first thought that I had as Dan Fouts announced that Orton was ‘seriously’ warming up was: McDaniels did not want to register a loss with Orton as his starting QB. At season’s end McDaniels can say ‘we lost games when Orton was not starting due to injury.’ There’s no other explanation. By the way, Dick Enberg needs to retire right now. He obviously cannot see the field properly.

Thanksgiving note: Denver should be thankful that QB Jay Cutler is destroying the Bears, otherwise McDaniels would be under huge pressure right now.

New York played well last Sunday against a good Atlanta offense. The Giants have been hearing it over allowing the game into overtime, but the Falcons played very well in the final quarter. I’d be a much richer man had the Falcons won that toss in OT, as I had the Falcons on the money line. QB Eli Manning threw the ball superbly after the first quarter. But to win at Denver on short rest the Giants will need to run the ball and to throw play action passes. I would like to see some I-Form big (two TEs and two backs). Since Orton has to be expected to play, the Giants need to avoid the temptation to blitz. Orton will be very immobile. This means that seven man coverages (probably Cover 2 zone or Cover 2 man under) will force Orton to execute perfect throws off a bad plant foot. Blitzing allows more margin for error. QB mobility is actually more important against traditional coverage defense, since the QB needs to buy time for receivers to become open. If the Giants do not give up the big play, and keep it clean, the Giants should win.

Thanksgiving note: The last time the Giants visited Denver the world was very different. It was on Monday Night Football (10 September 2001) and the play of the game was an 85 yard punt by NYG P Rodney Williams. It was the first game at Invesco Field. I don’t know what’s planned for pregame tomorrow, but it would be nice to see the victims of 9/11 honoured by the NFL on a nationally televised game.

Posted in Analysis, Brian Dawkins, Denver Broncos, Eli Manning, Game, Jay Cutler, Josh McDaniels, Kyle Orton, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Thanksgiving Day Football, NFL on television, NY Giants, Tom Coughlin | No Comments »

San Diego @ Denver Week 11 Preview

November 22nd, 2009 5:56 am
by Pro Set

In Week 6 San Diego hosted a 5-0 Denver team and lost. Denver progressed to 6-0 whilst San Diego fell to 2-3 were written off by many. Defense was the issue for San Diego. Chargers QB Philip Rivers was playing well then and he’s playing better now. TE Antonio Gates looks healthy and WR Malcolm Floyd has deposed WR Chris Chambers (released). The game winning drive at the Meadowlands was as good as it gets.

Denver is in trouble. The Broncos are an ordinary team and it is now showing. The injury suffered by QB Kyle Orton means that he is a game time decision. Backup QB Chris Simms looked terrible against Washington last Sunday. But the real problem is in the running game. Denver cannot run the football. This has reduced the impact of TE Tony Scheffler, who was huge in the second half at Qualcomm. If the Chargers can play decent defense on first down, and force passing situations, the Chargers should win. Dallas and New England dominated Denver for periods before losing momentum late. San Diego plays every year at Mile High, and has the better football team.

Posted in Analysis, Antonio Gates, Champ Bailey, Chris Chambers, Denver Broncos, Game, Kyle Orton, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers | No Comments »

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos Week 5 Preview

October 11th, 2009 5:40 am
by Pro Set

Dallas gifted a win last week to Denver. Early on, the Cowboys dominated up front. Until the crazy decision to have QB Tony Romo take a seven step drop, the Cowboys were completely in control. Denver will start better against New England. QB Kyle Orton did not convinve me. The TD pass to WR Brandon Marshall should have been easily deflected, but CB Terence Newman leapt with two hands as if to catch. As for the Dallas final drive, Denver gave up yards like a high school team and then simply blitzed nine men at the goal line. That won’t survive 16 games. Denver will be destroyed this week if New England plays cleanly.

New England still needs to run the ball more. Denver is weak inside. In the win over the Ravens, the Patriots should have buried the Ravens earlier. It’s hard to concede a sack / FR TD on first down when running the ball. The attention over the roughing the passer penalties has lessened the focus on the lack of power running from Foxboro. With WR Randy Moss and WR Wes Welker healthier, QB Tom Brady should demolish the Donkeys. On the other side, the interior NE defense has improved since the loss to the Jets. There is a still a question over whether NE can rush the passer adequately without blitzing. This will be tested if the Patriots trail or if the game is close.

Posted in Analysis, Denver Broncos, Game, NFL, New England Patriots | No Comments »

Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos Week 4 Preview

October 3rd, 2009 10:54 am
by Pro Set

Dallas (2-1) has not travelled to Denver since 1998 meaning that the Cowboys grace Invesco Field for the first time. Denver embarrassed Dallas in their last meeting on Thanksgiving Day no less. This Cowboys team is feeling very little love despite its winning record. QB Tony Romo (57%; 4 TD; 3 INT) needs to throw the ball better. WR Roy Williams (8 rec; 179 yds; 1 TD) needs to gain his quarterback’s confidence.  It was telling that Jason Garrett ordered an endzone fade to TE Martellus Bennett on MNF in the win over Carolina. When that pass is thrown to Williams on a consistent basis, it will signify that he is the #1 WR. On the ground, both RB Marion Barber (QST) and RB Felix Jones (OUT) will contribute little. RB Tashard Choice, however, has shown enough to warrant respect from the Donkeys (a.k.a Broncos defense). It is critical for Dallas that Choice presents a credible ground threat, in order for TE Jason Witten to get free on play action. A credible ground threat will require a solid performance from the Cowboys O-line. Remember to sink a beer when T Flozell Adams executes his mandatory false start.

Denver (3-0) is faring better than expected in the AFC West. It is important to note that Denver, when it matters, has not trailed by more than a score this season. QB Kyle Orton (56%; 3 TD; 0 INT) is not known from dramatic comebacks. RB Correll Buckhalter (31 car; 230 yds) might be averaging over 7 ypc, but Dallas will provide a sterner test. The Cowboys were able to cause significant disruption on 1st down against Carolina. NT Jay Ratliff will look to get inside penetration adn force Denver to run outside. The Denver interior line will need to drive through the point of attack. If Denver gets its guards onto the Dallas linebackers, the game is theirs to control. This will also set up bootleg passing for Orton.  Dallas, overall, should win as long as points off turnovers work in the Cowboys’ favour.

Posted in Analysis, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Game, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Thanksgiving Day Football, NFL on FOX, NFL schedule | No Comments »

AFC 2009 Power Previews – AFC West

July 8th, 2009 1:56 am
by Big Dog

AFC West

In the 50th anniversary AFL season, the AFC West looks like a one team show. Al Davis, Pat Bowlen and Clark Hunt proffer three head coaches with one combined season of NFL head coaching experience. Norv Turner knows that 5-8 will not again be parlayed into a home playoff win. San Diego expects to win; the others hope.

Oakland Raiders

ProSet Proclaims: Owner Al Davis might be deliberately sabotaging this franchise to reduce its value when death duties are ultimately imposed. Does anyone else have a better explanation for the misery in the Bay Area? Consider this list: far-fetched lawsuits; overpriced free agents; endless coaching changes; divisional destitution. Season 2008 imploded at home on opening night.

Looking forward, season 2009 will be defined by the three AFC West games that open the schedule for the Raiders. Tom Cable is on the hot seat at 0-0. He needs help. Two recent SEC superstars need to deliver. QB JaMarcus Russell (LSU) and RB Darren McFadden (Arkansas) will feel the heat this season. They weren’t drafted to be backups. Some blocking and catching would help; I think that WR Javon Walker probably owes several TDs to the Raiders.

On defense, the anchor is Cleveland and Denver reject: DT Gerard Warren. Denver is well known for quality run defense: ask Mike Shanahan. It looks like DE Derrick Burgess will again be the sole pass rush threat. And he had better get to the QB fast, as the Raiders have been awful at safety since Shannon Sharpe humiliated them in the 2000 season AFC Title game.

Fearless Prediction: 5-11 and swept by the Chargers again

Big Dog Barks: To be honest with you, I’d actually forgotten the Raiders still existed. As a team they’re equivalent of the “payroll error” in the movie Office Space – everyone stopped paying attention to the Raiders years ago and they just kept turning up anyway. Actually I think Oakland could benefit from holding open tryouts and seeing who turns up – at least then we’d have something interesting to watch. Who knows, maybe there are some talented high school kids in the Bay Area who deserve a shot?

Foolhardy Guess: 4-12 assuming that somebody can talk Rudy into playing for them -

Denver Broncos

ProSet Proclaims: Denver deserves to have a better season. Owner Pat Bowlen is a loyal guy. But one playoff win in ten seasons is firing material in Cincinnati, let alone Denver. No Sunday night games illustrate the fall.

Josh McDaniels has blown up the skill positions in his first off-season. QB Jay Cutler was traded for QB Kyle Orton. RB Correll Buckhalter is new. RB Knowshon Moreno (UGA) was drafted first round. WR Brandon Marshall is unsettled. Considering his predecessor was a supposed offensive genius, this is another example of perception overcoming reality. I mean, people still believe that the GOP is the party of small government, but both major parties are as wasteful as each other regarding public funds.

On defense, Denver is apparently considering a new system: tackling opposition runners and covering opposition receivers. New Defensive Coordinator Mike Nolan says that pressuring the passer is a bit advanced for the Donkeys. The depth chart backs him up.

Fearless Prediction: 7-9 with Thanksgiving prayers not to repeat the last Giants at Broncos match

Big Dog Barks: It’s sorely tempting to ask if “Mile High” is a reflection of Pat Bowlen’s mental state. To display this much loyalty after one playoff win in ten seasons implies he’s on some really good medication, or that somebody has compromising photos stashed away somewhere.

In any case, this is the year to try new things, like basic defense and offense. It remains to be seen how well they will do, but it’s hard not to echo Homer’s sentiments after Hank Scorpio gives him a football team –

the Broncos are definitely not the Cowboys.

Foolhardy Guess: 8-8 after being inspired by Tom Landry’s hat

Kansas City Chiefs

ProSet Proclaims: This will be a tough season in Kansas City. The networks agree. The Chiefs have zero prime time games (despite crossing over with the ratings powerhouse NFC East). There is only one potential nationally televised game: Week 17 at Denver. CBS lower lights Don Criqui or Bill Macatee might as well buy a trailer next to Arrowhead.

On the field, the Chiefs will be sorely disappointed by new coach Todd Haley. The current trend to hire ‘hot’ coaching commodities on the back of one playoff run show s a disturbing bias towards ticket sales and ‘buzz’ over results. QB Kurt Warner to WR Larry Fitzgerald is not available. Legendary TE Tony Gonzalez has been traded. RB Larry Johnson, if his heart is in it, still holds the key to the Chiefs offense. The last remnant of the great mid-decade Chiefs O-Line, G Brian Waters, is unhappy. This is not good news for QB Matt Cassel. He might want to hire a full time home help.

Without the football (Chiefs fans are used to this) the new 3-4 defense looks weak up front. Glenn Dorsey will need to adjust fast to the difficult life of a 3-4 end. He’ll be expected to attract enough attention to free up blitzing linebackers. If he does his job well, doubtless the ill-informed will then highlight his low individual stats.

Fearless Prediction: 4-12 with a win over Denver to honour Lamar Hunt

Big Dog Barks: It takes a whole lot of things to come together in order to have a winning football franchise, no single coach or player can do it alone. Unfortunately for the Chiefs this year too many key members have been traded, lost or have other reasons to not be bonding well and this does not bode well for the possibility of developing real team cohesion.

They might get lucky and find the intensity of their first few games motivating enough to form them into a tight-knit unit but that doesn’t seem very likely. This will be a good season for Kansas City fans to circle the wagons and stockpile rations, they’re going to feel under siege.

Foolhardy Guess: 3-13 with the cavalry charging in to save the other side

San Diego Chargers

Proset Proclaims: Norv Turner needs a faster start this season: and he gets the Raiders to open. San Diego should be 6-0 in the AFC West and beat CLE and CIN easily: that’s 8 wins.

I was really impressed with QB Philip Rivers last season. With RB LaDainian Tomlinson below his best, Rivers owned the offense. RB Darren Sproles got a lot of love for his efforts, but San Diego set up the run with the pass. As long as he hasn’t lost a step, WR Chris Chambers is the key receiver. He can draw a safety wide, allowing TE Antonio Gates to run the skinny post inside. I would line up Gates in the slot with Chambers at split end. If the defense floods that side, WR Vincent Jackson should have acres of space opposite. Rivers is now mature enough to make the right decision.

On defense, I felt that DT Jamal Williams was not quite as dominant last season. Obviously the injured LB Shawne Merriman stole the headlines. The Chargers have a good secondary. The linebackers must stay disciplined. There was a lot of outside rush last year and resultant inside gashing. Sacks look good. But an opposition YPC of fewer than 3.5 will win games.

Fearless Prediction: 12-4 with the game at Dallas being a season highlight

Big Dog Barks: Rivers was great for the Chargers last year and his decision making visibly improved as the season progressed. Expect more of the same this year, especially if Norv Turner can continue to make good use of his other key assets. The Chargers are on their way to being an electrifying team in the NFL once again. Look for them to get out to an early lead and to build on their winning momentum. Clearly they are the frontrunners for their division.

Foolhardy Guess: 14-2 with early breathless commentary about their ability to go undefeated

Posted in Analysis, Antonio Gates, Chris Chambers, Correll Buckhalter, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Game, Jamal Williams, Jay Cutler, Kansas City Chiefs, LaDainian Tomlinson, Mike Nolan, Mike Shanahan, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, NFL schedule, Norv Turner, Oakland Raiders, Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers, Shawne Merriman, Tony Gonzalez | 2 Comments »

NFL Week 11 Analysis: Tennessee @ Denver

November 20th, 2007 1:04 am
by Big Dog

This was a tough week for the Tennessee Titans, and particularly for their emerging QB Vince Young. Young had a career day passing and was also the Titans’ lead rusher for the day, unfortunately this stellar effort wasn’t enough to bring home the win.

The Denver Broncos were tonight competing to meet theSan Diego Chargers at the top of the division with a 5-5 record. Broncos QB Jay Cutler had a career high 137.0 passer rating for the night and it was certainly deserved as he made several big plays to give Denver an early lead.

The evolving story that is Vince Young continued tonight as he showed considerable poise in the pocket, often holding onto the ball and making crucial passes. For the most part, Young only ran when it was the best option available on the field and managed to turn it into a showcase of how to play the scrambling QB position.

Unfortunately the Titans were let down by several dropped passes and then succumbed to the pressure created by Denver’s mounting lead. That’s not to take anything away from the Broncos, who have been a much more cohesive unit in the last couple of weeks, with players clearly taking more responsibility for the performance of the team as a whole.

The personal highlights of the night came from Denver Head Coach Mike Shanahan with two of his timeout calls. Tonight, the man who gave the NFL the idea for “icing” a kicker called a timeout with 14 seconds left at the end of the 2nd quarter. The ball was snapped and kicked with Tennessee K Rob Bironas missing the 56 yard attempt. Shanahan’s timeout gave Bironas a second chance which was good.

The second point scoring timeout from the Broncos came about halfway through the 3rd quarter. Young was scrambling for the endzone and stretched out, attempting to break the plane with the ball before being forced out of bounds. It wasn’t ruled a touchdown on the field and while the Titans staff were deciding whether to challenge the ruling, the next play was snapped, with Young again scrambling for the endzone in the corner and coming up short. Fortunately for Tennessee Head Coach Jeff Fisher, the Broncos linebackers had called a timeout prior to the snap, which gave him time to challenge the previous play. On review, the call on the field was reversed as Young was ruled to have broken the plane and scored the touchdown prior to being forced out of bounds.

This was an entertaining game of football and shows that Denver have a lot to look forward to if they can carry this momentum into the end of the season. By the same token, the Titans and Vince Young are improving measurably week by week and while this season isn’t likely to be their breakout year, Young is establishing himself as a passer, a leader and a QB, which suggests that Tennessee will be a force to be reckoned with in coming years.

Posted in Analysis, Denver Broncos, Game, Jay Cutler, Jeff Fisher, Mike Shanahan, Monday Night Football, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, Rob Bironas, San Diego Chargers, Tennessee Titans, Vince Young | No Comments »

NFL Week 11 Analysis: Washington @ Dallas – Final

November 18th, 2007 9:23 pm
by Big Dog

The second half of this game was every bit exciting and eventful as expected. The early stages of the 3rd quarter were slow to start but things started to turn when Dallas Cowboys Head Coach Wade Phillips successfully challenged an INT by Washington Redskins LB Rocky McIntosh.

On the very next play, the Redskins were called for pass interference which turned it into a 51 yard play for the Cowboys. Dallas QB Tony Romo then completed a 31 yard TD pass to WR Terrell Owens.

That pattern continued for pretty much the rest of the game with Owens receiving all 4 of Romo’s touchdown passes, equalling a Cowboys team record for TD receptions in a game. Owens has also climbed to 3rd all time number of receptions. Romo is additionally on his way to setting a new team record for TD passes in a season.

All of this could lead the casual observer to assume that Dallas had a pretty easy/comfortable time of it, and that would be a mistake. The true story is that while Dallas did come away with the win, they didn’t particularly impress. At the end of the day, they did what everybody expected them to do, win at home. They really only got away with it because Owens managed to make Redskins CB Shawn Springs’ day a living hell.

It almost looked personal in a way. Springs wrestled Owens to the ground on his first reception of the day, and Owens took exception to being manhandled when he’d be forced back far enough that the play should have been called dead. To be fair to Springs, the whistle hadn’t blown and it was his job to keep going until it was blown. No flags on the play, but Owens was visibly emotional for the rest of the game and managed to make big breaks, confuse the Redskins coverage and give Romo enough room to make sure they both had a great day. Springs was meant to be covering TO most of the time, and TO worked hard to make sure he didn’t.

That said, the highlight performance of the game was definitely Washington QB Jason Campbell (33-54, 348yds, 2TD, INT). Campbell showed great patience, presence and poise in the pocket, waiting for plays to develop and executing under intense pressure, particularly from Dallas LB DeMarcus Ware. Campbell was especially good when the Redskins were working their hurry-up offense and seemed more comfortable with the rhythm of that part of the game.

All in all, it was an entertaining and tight game that bodes well for the future of the Redskins. The NFC is now shaping up to be quite a contest with the Green Bay Packers and the Dallas Cowboys now both 9-1 for the season.

Posted in Analysis, DeMarcus Ware, Denver Broncos, Game, Green Bay Packers, Jason Campbell, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL on FOX, NFL on television, Rocky McIntosh, Shawn Springs, Terrell Owens, Tony Romo, Wade Phillips, Washington Redskins | No Comments »

The AFC so far

October 4th, 2007 9:43 am
by NFL Freak

For most NFL teams, the season is already 25% complete. Let’s examine what’s happened so far in the AFC.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills (1-3)

A season-saving divisional win (vs NYJ) has given a spark to the Bills. The only NFL team based in New York can build on that momentum when Dallas visits Orchard Park for the first MNF game in Buffalo in 13 seasons. The Buffalo folk prefer day games, since so many of their fans have such long car trips to the game. Expect the Bills to be out of contention by the halfway point of the season. Dick Jauron is a nice guy, but he just can’t win playoff games, so there is no future in that relationship.

Miami Dolphins (0-4)

What a contrast for the former San Diego coordinators. MIA Coach Cam Cameron finally gets some heat applied after a terrible loss at home to Oakland. Despite acquiring a veteran (and proven) QB in Trent Green, I think that the Dolphins are just too old on the defensive side of the ball. If I’m Wayne Huizenga, I would ask why LB Zach Thomas and DE Jason Taylor ought not to be traded to real contenders in order to beef up the team in next year’s draft. Sorry, Dolphins fans, but this season will not extend into January. Expect a mid-season rally of sorts, but 0-4 in the AFC is irreparable damage.

New England Patriots (4-0)

The standout team in the entire NFL has been the Patriots. Courtesy of the overzealous hysteria about Spygate, the Patriots have clearly bonded and look to be too good. I missed the Salem witch trials, but it’s always refreshing to see history repeating itself. I’m sure, however, that QB Tom Brady is fired more by the crushing disappointment of consecutive seasons with playoff losses. An NFL career is only ever one play away from ending (as we unfortunately saw with BUF LB Kevin Everett). Most Patriot players are set for life. It is the diminishing window of opportunity that drives them. NE is the clear favourite for now. If Roger Goodell had some steel, he’d instruct the Patriots to print post-season tickets now.

New York Jets (1-3)

It’s been a disappointing 4 years since QB Chad Pennington led the Jets to the AFC East title. With RB Thomas Jones combining with RB Leon Washington, I expected the Jets to be able to run the ball well. Pennington needs good play action to be able to hit WR Laveranues Coles. The loss last Sunday at Buffalo will really hurt. I just cannot see the Jets grabbing an AFC Wild Card without 10 wins. And I don’t think that the Jets can go 9-3 from here with games against Dallas, New England and Baltimore still to go.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (2-2)

This is the one of the most disappointing 2-2 starts in the NFL. The Ravens are 0-2 in the division and will need to sweep Pittsburgh to win the AFC North. QB Steve McNair looks like he’s just had one campaign too many. There are only so many big plays that SS Ed Reed can make. This team has issues on both sides of the ball. As for Brian Billick, his 2001 axing of Trent Dilfer in favour of a passing philosophy with QB Elvis Grbac should have already led to his removal. The Ravens are in decline.

Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)

Clearly the Bengals have issues on defense. QB Carson Palmer has too much pressure on him to produce scores on every drive. This team will give up at least 24 points per game on average. With RB Rudi Johnson not being a true breakaway threat, this means that Palmer needs to have 35-40 TD passes this season. He might just get there. Whether the Bengals are playoff-calibre or not will be determined by their series against the NFC West. If Cincy cannot dominate a division without a standout team, the show is over. Remember, WR Chris Henry is nominally able to play after midseason (assuming Goodell reinstates him). Henry is better than the nickel corner for most teams. Anything less than a playoff win is a failure for Cincinnati.

Cleveland Browns (2-2)

After an opening week that exceeded even the most dismal prognostications, the Browns are now 2-1 in the division. QB Derek Anderson has been the man of the moment. It also appears that Cleveland has avoided the receiver curse in the draft with WR Braylon Edwards. I’m just not sure what to make of this team. In Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow, Cleveland has top class weapons. Unfortunately for Browns fans, I think that the Dawg Pound will be empty come January. The Browns have 3 divisional road games to come, as well as facing the Patriots. A winning record is possible, and I think that a winning record will save Romeo Crennel from the chop.

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)

It’s hard to get a read on the Steelers. They key will be winning divisional games. Fortunately for Pittsburgh, it seems as thought the Steelers can rely on the rest of the AFC North knocking each other off. QB Ben Roethlisberger is the best game management QB in the division. Unlike the other teams in the AFC North, Pittsburgh does not have that brittle edge that can lead to implosion. I see PIT going at least 4-2 in the division, and 3-1 against the AFC East. Splitting their other games brings out a 10-6 record, so expect PIT to make the playoffs.

AFC South

Houston Texans (2-2)

For the first time in my life, I backed the Houston Texans (-3) at Atlanta last Sunday. Despite my retained bitterness, I am still impressed by the 2-2 start. The struggles against JAX (against whom HOU has a great record) and TEN will be fascinating. I like this division as the supplier of two playoff teams. For the Texans, QB Matt Schaub must continue to improve. Unless RB Ahman Green can prove me wrong and show that his best is not yet a distant memory, I think that the Texans can only win through the air. WR Andre Davis will need to stay healthy. I think that the Texans will run out of steam and finish 8-8, but at least HOU season ticket holders will have meaningful football to watch come December.

Indianapolis Colts (3-0)

The Colts are looking good without making too much noise. The Colts are already 2-0 in the division. I can’t see them losing to any team from the NFC either. QB Peyton Manning is now truly an elite NFL QB. I was one of the last doubters. The division is theirs if the Colts defensive front four can stay healthy. The loss of DT Anthony McFarland will be keenly felt. DE Dwight Freeney is deadly when the Colts have the lead in the second half. I still think, despite all the hype about S Bob Sanders, that teams can run on Indy with success. With the Chargers struggling, all signs point to another AFC decider between the Colts and the Patriots. The venue will matter.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1)

The bombshell that began the JAX season has proven to be successful so far. QB David Garrard has led the Jags to wins at Denver and verus Atlanta. JAX coach Jack Del Rio will still be upset that the inevitable teething problems of the Byron Leftwich issue spilled over into an opening day home divisional loss. If JAX misses the playoffs by a game, he will bitterly regret not acting earlier. For mine, RB Fred Taylor is in his final effective season. Between Taylor and RB Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX has to get back to pounding the ball, and then stopping the run through DT John Henderson and DT Marcus Stroud. Remember, however, that TEN ran for over 200 yards at JAX. With JAX already having had their bye, injuries will hurt them more than most as the season progresses.

Tennessee Titans (2-1)

The Titans are looking like the most improved team in the NFL. When one recalls their steamrolling finish to 2006, however, this is to be expected. QB Vince Young has clearly brought a sense of belief and excitement to the team. His passing is still developing, but he has the intangible quality of competitiveness that separates good players from winning players. I have been most impressed with the TEN defense. As long as the Titans can get pressure on the passer with only 4 down linemen, they will win games. With winnable games against AFC West teams and a weak NFC South, TEN should get 10 wins. The crucial games are, obviously, the divisional rivalries. If TEN goes 4-2 in the AFC South, expect them to be returning to the playoffs for the first time since the 2003 season.

AFC West

Denver Broncos (2-2)

Denver have given themselves a reliable start to the season and can build on their early success. Given their performance so far, you have to like the Broncos as they prepare to face the San Diego Chargers this Sunday. There’s no question that Mike Shanahan has his work cut out for him and will need to build more consistency into the team on both sides of the ball, but the Broncos are a real playoff chance.

Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)

The Chiefs crushed the San Diego Chargers last week, and it’s hard to tell if this is more an indication of the Chiefs’ form, or the Chargers’. QB Damon Huard seems to be settling in well and the Chiefs have made some ground on their passing game. That said, there’s still a long way to go till the playoffs – Chiefs fans, don’t hold your breath.

Oakland Raiders (2-2)

Oakland haven’t had the convincing start many expected. While they’ve had some strong wins and individual performances (including Daunte Culpepper against Miami), Oakland will need to win convincingly against the San Diego Chargers in order to convince the rest of us that they’re a genuine prospect.

San Diego Chargers (1-3)

San Diego have by far and away been the shock disappointment of the season so far. Expectations have been high following their 14-2 record of last season. It was big news when Norv Turner was brought in as a replacement coach for a successful team. Many Chargers fans can now justifiably question the sanity of that decision. Despite Turner’s reputation as an offensive specialist, the Chargers have comprehensively failed to ignite that half of their game. Star RB LaDainian Tomlinson has struggled to get things going, and there are serious questions to be asked about QB Philip Rivers’ decision making. At this point it’s difficult to see San Diego being able to realistically aim for much more than trying to finish the season with a winning record. Especially now that they’ve marked themselves as the weak team in the division. Everyone will be gunning for them.

Posted in Ahman Green, Analysis, Andre Davis, Anthony McFarland, Baltimore Ravens, Ben Roethlisberger, Bob Sanders, Braylon Edwards, Brian Billick, Buffalo Bills, Cam Cameron, Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Damon Huard, Daunte Culpepper, David Garrard, Denver Broncos, Derek Anderson, Dick Jauron, Dwight Freeney, Ed Reed, Fred Taylor, Game, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jason Taylor, John Henderson, Kansas City Chiefs, Kellen Winslow, Kevin Everett, LaDainian Tomlinson, Laveranues Coles, Leon Washington, Marcus Stroud, Matt Schaub, Maurice Jones-Drew, Miami Dolphins, Mike Shanahan, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Norv Turner, Oakland Raiders, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Romeo Crennel, Rudi Johnson, San Diego Chargers, Steve McNair, Tennessee Titans, Thomas Jones, Tom Brady, Trent Green, Vince Young, Zach Thomas | No Comments »

NFL Fantasy Football Week 3

September 21st, 2007 9:57 am
by Big Dog

One of the most intriguing matchups of the week is San Diego at Green Bay. The Chargers have a lot to prove, if they want to live up to the incredibly high expectations that their 14-2 record established last season, they need to win their next 14 straight.

As you may know, that’s not the kind of crazy talk prediction I’m willing to participate in. That said, San Diego have to make something happen this week to have any realistic chance of salvaging their season.

At the same time Brett Favre and the Packers have won their last six games. It’s easy to forget last season, and usually I’d be telling you that form last season doesn’t provide a solid basis for this season. Even so, everyone knows that last year the Packers were working with a very young side that lacked experience at the NFL level. By the end of last season we were seeing this team start to come good.

This late season form has carried into this year with the Packers putting up strong performances in the first two weeks. Last week Tom Brady, Randy Moss and the New England Offensive Line demonstrated that San Diego are vulnerable in the air. The Chargers’ secondary leaves a lot to be desired and it won’t take much separation for the passing game to open up. I’d be expecting good numbers this week from Brett Favre and his main receiving options, Donald Driver and James Jones.

Interestingly, I also think that this matchup will be important for LaDainian Tomlinson. Last week LT was held to only 43 yards from 18 attempts. It’s possible to argue that he hasn’t really lit up the field so far this season. If San Diego is to have a chance, they need their league MVP to do his thing. Expect an extra effort from Tomlinson this week.

Denver Broncos kicker, Jason Elam, has been the deciding factor in the last two weeks for the Broncos. It could well come down to field position and kicking again as the Jacksonville Jaguars come to play in Denver.

Atlanta play host to the Carolina Panthers this week. Panthers DE Julius Peppers will be looking to build on his fearsome reputation as a Quarterback’s nightmare. The Falcons have already given up 13 sacks this season and you can bet Peppers will be looking to push that total ever higher.

Good luck with week 3.

Posted in Atlanta Falcons, Brett Favre, Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos, Donald Driver, Game, Green Bay Packers, Jacksonville Jaguars, James Jones, Jason Elam, Julius Peppers, LaDainian Tomlinson, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, New England Patriots, Randy Moss, San Diego Chargers, Tom Brady | No Comments »

Week 2 Fantasy Players

September 16th, 2007 3:38 am
by Big Dog

There’s no question that the Buffalo Bills have had an emotionally challenging week as they’ve dealt with the news of Kevin Everett’s injury and then the nearly miraculous nature of his recover thus far. In spite of the distractions, expect the Bills to be playing with a lot of commitment and energy as their injured defense look to hold up against the attack of the Pittsburgh Steelers as led by Ben Roethlisberger.

That said, Roethlisberger himself has a lot to be playing for this week. He’s been stung by criticism of his decision making, game management and his performance last season. He’s got a lot to prove and teammates have reported that he’s training and playing with the drive and commitment of a man with a chip on his shoulder. Add to this the fact that the Steelers defense managed to force five turnovers and six sacks last week. If that proves to be a trend, then the Steelers offense is going to get plenty of playing time. I’d expect Big Ben to be taking full advantage of the Bills’ injuries this week and looking for some impressive numbers from him.

Plaxico Burress was a popular outlet for Eli Manning last week, with a total of 8 receptions for 144 yards and 3 touchdowns. While Manning remains in doubt with a shoulder injury (he’s almost universally expected to play), it would be reasonable to expect that backup quarterback Jared Lorenzen would look for a similar performance from Burress this week. Either way, expect the ball to fly and for Plaxico to test the Green Bay Packers defense.

Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt hosts his first home game as the Arizona Cardinals face the Seattle Seahawks. It’ll be a tough match as both teams posted some good performances in week 1. I think Seattle Running Back Shaun Alexander will supply some excellent value and entertainment this week. He traditionally averages close to 100 yards against the Cardinals and has scored 10 TDs in their last 5 meetings. If he gets a good jump this week, he could carry the Seahawks all the way to a win.

Champ Bailey will be worth keeping an eye on as the Denver Broncos play host to the Oakland Raiders this week. Coach Mike Shanahan has an excellent record against the Raiders and Champ is an interception specialist. In addition, his expanded duties on special teams ensure his contributions to the Broncos are spread as far across the field as possible. The decision to include the Champ on special teams was more than paid for with his touchdown saving tackle in week 1.

Good luck everyone, for week 2.

Posted in Analysis, Arizona Cardinals, Ben Roethlisberger, Buffalo Bills, Champ Bailey, Denver Broncos, Eli Manning, Game, Green Bay Packers, Jared Lorenzen, Ken Whisenhunt, Kevin Everett, Mike Shanahan, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NY Giants, Oakland Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers, Plaxico Burress, Seattle Seahawks, Shaun Alexander | No Comments »