Week 13 Analysis: Cincinatti @ Pittsburgh

December 3rd, 2007 1:20 am
by Big Dog

It was another wet night at Heinz Field as the Pittsburgh Steelers played host to the Cincinnati Bengals. Even with the rain, the field was in much better condition than last Monday night, and this made for a much more eventful game.

In the early stages Cincinnati QB Carson Palmer and the Bengals looked to be in excellent form, despite the conditions, as they moved down the field smoothly and opened the scoring for both teams with a touchdown. While Palmer looked like he was handling the wet comfortably, Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger looked anything but comfortable. The ball was coming out of his hand in an awkward fashion with most of his early passes being high and wobbly.

The momentum shifted early in the second quarter as Roethlisberger found his rhythm and got into the flow of the game, leading the Steelers on a 67 yard drive that ended in a six yard dive from Roethlisberger to score Pittsburgh’s first TD. From there on Pittsburgh dominated the scoring, piling on a further 17 points that included two TD passes to FL Hines Ward that saw Ward passing the Steelers’ All Time team record for TD receptions.

In the end, the Steelers held on for the win, although it looked more comfortable than it was. Turnovers were a big part of the story and the only statistic where the Bengals performed better than the Steelers. Officially the Bengals had one turnover to the Steelers’ four. This figure doesn’t include the fumble by Steelers’ HB Willie Parker that was overturned after a challenge by Head Coach Mike Tomlin. It also doesn’t include the fumble by Parker that was ruled down by contact on the field and upheld after the challenge by Bengals Head Coach Marvin Lewis. It also doesn’t count the safety scored by the Bengals that was reversed by an illegal holding penalty and it doesn’t include the turnover on downs that the Bengals would have won late in the game which was also reversed by a penalty call.

For the Bengals the biggest issue is clearly team discipline, but we’ve all known that for years. Either Cincinnati will find a way to deal with this problem, or all their players will retire. It’s just a question of which happens first.

For the Steelers, Parker’s fumbling troubles have got to be a major concern coming into the business end of the season and given the current injury concerns surrounding Parker’s replacement HB Najeh Davenport. The question is, did Parker just have a bad night in bad conditions? Or is there a bigger problem? This is bound to be something that the New England Patriots will test next week.

Posted in Pittsburgh Steelers, Ben Roethlisberger, Cincinnati Bengals, Willie Parker, Hines Ward, Marvin Lewis, Mike Tomlin, Carson Palmer, NFL Coaches, NFL on television, Analysis, Game, NFL on NBC, NFL Franchises/Teams, New England Patriots, NFL Players, NFL | No Comments »

The AFC so far

October 4th, 2007 9:43 am
by NFL Freak

For most NFL teams, the season is already 25% complete. Let’s examine what’s happened so far in the AFC.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills (1-3)

A season-saving divisional win (vs NYJ) has given a spark to the Bills. The only NFL team based in New York can build on that momentum when Dallas visits Orchard Park for the first MNF game in Buffalo in 13 seasons. The Buffalo folk prefer day games, since so many of their fans have such long car trips to the game. Expect the Bills to be out of contention by the halfway point of the season. Dick Jauron is a nice guy, but he just can’t win playoff games, so there is no future in that relationship.

Miami Dolphins (0-4)

What a contrast for the former San Diego coordinators. MIA Coach Cam Cameron finally gets some heat applied after a terrible loss at home to Oakland. Despite acquiring a veteran (and proven) QB in Trent Green, I think that the Dolphins are just too old on the defensive side of the ball. If I’m Wayne Huizenga, I would ask why LB Zach Thomas and DE Jason Taylor ought not to be traded to real contenders in order to beef up the team in next year’s draft. Sorry, Dolphins fans, but this season will not extend into January. Expect a mid-season rally of sorts, but 0-4 in the AFC is irreparable damage.

New England Patriots (4-0)

The standout team in the entire NFL has been the Patriots. Courtesy of the overzealous hysteria about Spygate, the Patriots have clearly bonded and look to be too good. I missed the Salem witch trials, but it’s always refreshing to see history repeating itself. I’m sure, however, that QB Tom Brady is fired more by the crushing disappointment of consecutive seasons with playoff losses. An NFL career is only ever one play away from ending (as we unfortunately saw with BUF LB Kevin Everett). Most Patriot players are set for life. It is the diminishing window of opportunity that drives them. NE is the clear favourite for now. If Roger Goodell had some steel, he’d instruct the Patriots to print post-season tickets now.

New York Jets (1-3)

It’s been a disappointing 4 years since QB Chad Pennington led the Jets to the AFC East title. With RB Thomas Jones combining with RB Leon Washington, I expected the Jets to be able to run the ball well. Pennington needs good play action to be able to hit WR Laveranues Coles. The loss last Sunday at Buffalo will really hurt. I just cannot see the Jets grabbing an AFC Wild Card without 10 wins. And I don’t think that the Jets can go 9-3 from here with games against Dallas, New England and Baltimore still to go.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (2-2)

This is the one of the most disappointing 2-2 starts in the NFL. The Ravens are 0-2 in the division and will need to sweep Pittsburgh to win the AFC North. QB Steve McNair looks like he’s just had one campaign too many. There are only so many big plays that SS Ed Reed can make. This team has issues on both sides of the ball. As for Brian Billick, his 2001 axing of Trent Dilfer in favour of a passing philosophy with QB Elvis Grbac should have already led to his removal. The Ravens are in decline.

Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)

Clearly the Bengals have issues on defense. QB Carson Palmer has too much pressure on him to produce scores on every drive. This team will give up at least 24 points per game on average. With RB Rudi Johnson not being a true breakaway threat, this means that Palmer needs to have 35-40 TD passes this season. He might just get there. Whether the Bengals are playoff-calibre or not will be determined by their series against the NFC West. If Cincy cannot dominate a division without a standout team, the show is over. Remember, WR Chris Henry is nominally able to play after midseason (assuming Goodell reinstates him). Henry is better than the nickel corner for most teams. Anything less than a playoff win is a failure for Cincinnati.

Cleveland Browns (2-2)

After an opening week that exceeded even the most dismal prognostications, the Browns are now 2-1 in the division. QB Derek Anderson has been the man of the moment. It also appears that Cleveland has avoided the receiver curse in the draft with WR Braylon Edwards. I’m just not sure what to make of this team. In Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow, Cleveland has top class weapons. Unfortunately for Browns fans, I think that the Dawg Pound will be empty come January. The Browns have 3 divisional road games to come, as well as facing the Patriots. A winning record is possible, and I think that a winning record will save Romeo Crennel from the chop.

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)

It’s hard to get a read on the Steelers. They key will be winning divisional games. Fortunately for Pittsburgh, it seems as thought the Steelers can rely on the rest of the AFC North knocking each other off. QB Ben Roethlisberger is the best game management QB in the division. Unlike the other teams in the AFC North, Pittsburgh does not have that brittle edge that can lead to implosion. I see PIT going at least 4-2 in the division, and 3-1 against the AFC East. Splitting their other games brings out a 10-6 record, so expect PIT to make the playoffs.

AFC South

Houston Texans (2-2)

For the first time in my life, I backed the Houston Texans (-3) at Atlanta last Sunday. Despite my retained bitterness, I am still impressed by the 2-2 start. The struggles against JAX (against whom HOU has a great record) and TEN will be fascinating. I like this division as the supplier of two playoff teams. For the Texans, QB Matt Schaub must continue to improve. Unless RB Ahman Green can prove me wrong and show that his best is not yet a distant memory, I think that the Texans can only win through the air. WR Andre Davis will need to stay healthy. I think that the Texans will run out of steam and finish 8-8, but at least HOU season ticket holders will have meaningful football to watch come December.

Indianapolis Colts (3-0)

The Colts are looking good without making too much noise. The Colts are already 2-0 in the division. I can’t see them losing to any team from the NFC either. QB Peyton Manning is now truly an elite NFL QB. I was one of the last doubters. The division is theirs if the Colts defensive front four can stay healthy. The loss of DT Anthony McFarland will be keenly felt. DE Dwight Freeney is deadly when the Colts have the lead in the second half. I still think, despite all the hype about S Bob Sanders, that teams can run on Indy with success. With the Chargers struggling, all signs point to another AFC decider between the Colts and the Patriots. The venue will matter.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1)

The bombshell that began the JAX season has proven to be successful so far. QB David Garrard has led the Jags to wins at Denver and verus Atlanta. JAX coach Jack Del Rio will still be upset that the inevitable teething problems of the Byron Leftwich issue spilled over into an opening day home divisional loss. If JAX misses the playoffs by a game, he will bitterly regret not acting earlier. For mine, RB Fred Taylor is in his final effective season. Between Taylor and RB Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX has to get back to pounding the ball, and then stopping the run through DT John Henderson and DT Marcus Stroud. Remember, however, that TEN ran for over 200 yards at JAX. With JAX already having had their bye, injuries will hurt them more than most as the season progresses.

Tennessee Titans (2-1)

The Titans are looking like the most improved team in the NFL. When one recalls their steamrolling finish to 2006, however, this is to be expected. QB Vince Young has clearly brought a sense of belief and excitement to the team. His passing is still developing, but he has the intangible quality of competitiveness that separates good players from winning players. I have been most impressed with the TEN defense. As long as the Titans can get pressure on the passer with only 4 down linemen, they will win games. With winnable games against AFC West teams and a weak NFC South, TEN should get 10 wins. The crucial games are, obviously, the divisional rivalries. If TEN goes 4-2 in the AFC South, expect them to be returning to the playoffs for the first time since the 2003 season.

AFC West

Denver Broncos (2-2)

Denver have given themselves a reliable start to the season and can build on their early success. Given their performance so far, you have to like the Broncos as they prepare to face the San Diego Chargers this Sunday. There’s no question that Mike Shanahan has his work cut out for him and will need to build more consistency into the team on both sides of the ball, but the Broncos are a real playoff chance.

Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)

The Chiefs crushed the San Diego Chargers last week, and it’s hard to tell if this is more an indication of the Chiefs’ form, or the Chargers’. QB Damon Huard seems to be settling in well and the Chiefs have made some ground on their passing game. That said, there’s still a long way to go till the playoffs - Chiefs fans, don’t hold your breath.

Oakland Raiders (2-2)

Oakland haven’t had the convincing start many expected. While they’ve had some strong wins and individual performances (including Daunte Culpepper against Miami), Oakland will need to win convincingly against the San Diego Chargers in order to convince the rest of us that they’re a genuine prospect.

San Diego Chargers (1-3)

San Diego have by far and away been the shock disappointment of the season so far. Expectations have been high following their 14-2 record of last season. It was big news when Norv Turner was brought in as a replacement coach for a successful team. Many Chargers fans can now justifiably question the sanity of that decision. Despite Turner’s reputation as an offensive specialist, the Chargers have comprehensively failed to ignite that half of their game. Star RB LaDainian Tomlinson has struggled to get things going, and there are serious questions to be asked about QB Philip Rivers’ decision making. At this point it’s difficult to see San Diego being able to realistically aim for much more than trying to finish the season with a winning record. Especially now that they’ve marked themselves as the weak team in the division. Everyone will be gunning for them.

Posted in Fred Taylor, Maurice Jones-Drew, David Garrard, John Henderson, Anthony McFarland, Jack Del Rio, Marcus Stroud, Vince Young, Jacksonville Jaguars, Dick Jauron, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Chad Pennington, Tennessee Titans, Bob Sanders, Dwight Freeney, Leon Washington, Ed Reed, Laveranues Coles, Thomas Jones, Daunte Culpepper, Jason Taylor, Brian Billick, Rudi Johnson, Andre Davis, Ahman Green, Braylon Edwards, Derek Anderson, Romeo Crennel, Kellen Winslow, Mike Shanahan, Pittsburgh Steelers, Matt Schaub, San Diego Chargers, Damon Huard, Kansas City Chiefs, Tom Brady, New England Patriots, Peyton Manning, NFL Players, Analysis, Game, Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans, NFL Franchises/Teams, Indianapolis Colts, NFL Coaches, Carson Palmer, Cam Cameron, Trent Green, Norv Turner, LaDainian Tomlinson, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Zach Thomas, Oakland Raiders, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Steve McNair, Buffalo Bills, Kevin Everett, Denver Broncos, NFL | No Comments »

NFL Week 4 Instant Analysis: New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

October 2nd, 2007 8:09 pm
by Pro Set

New England 34-13 Cincinnati

Cincinnati fell to 1-3 because the Bengals defense could not pressure the passer. It did not help that the only CIN TD drive came when a turnover gave a short field to the Bengals.

When Cincinnati had possession, there were promising signs, but the Bengals were unable to convert drives into scoring opportunities. On the ground, RB Kenny Watson (13 rush; 55 yards) made some nice plays with RB Rudi Johnson injured. Watson, however, was unable to rush for enough early down yardage to allow QB Carson Palmer, 21-35 (234; TD; 2 INT) to test the New England secondary in play action. As CIN fell behind by two scores, the rushing game became more and more irrelevant.

The CIN passing attack was throttled early on as the Bengals favoured the ground attack. I though the Bengals game plan did not deserve the criticism that it received from the announcing booth. The plan was clearly one of keeping the game close and seeing how effective the running attack could be. And it almost worked. The score, remember, was NE 17-7 CIN at the two minute warning of the first half, with CIN in possession and in scoring range. The drive was fruitless as Palmer threw an INT. It was surprising that the MNF announcers even noticed the INT, as they were so focussed on the great story line of how the Bengals only had two fit linebackers.

In the end, with CIN unable to draw within one score, the pressure rested completely upon the passing game. With the heat on, I thought that the Bengals receivers dropped too many passes (albeit difficult ones). I also felt that Palmer was under perceived pressure from the NE pass rush. It was clear that Palmer was determined to get the ball out and not be sacked. In the circumstances, I thought that he threw more catchable balls than his number suggested. Indicative of the night experienced by the CIN receivers was the first INT thrown by Palmer when WR Chad Johnson (3 rec; 53 yards) ran a streak and Palmer threw for the square in route.

When New England had the ball, the attack was clinical. On the ground, RB Sammy Morris (21 rush; 117 yards; TD) did what was required. The Bengals were unable to stop the run with their front seven. It’s interesting to note that the only real time that the Bengals created real down-and-distance pressure on the Patriots, they forced a turnover. This was a 3^rd & 23 at NE 14 early in the 2^nd quarter. QB Tom Brady (25-32; 231; 3 TD; INT) forced the pass into bracket coverage.

Overall, the aerial attack of NE was too accurate and the pass protection was too good. Brady is just so good at stepping up whilst keeping his eyes downfield. In my mind, the only worthwhile pressure must be straight up the middle. It will take a good team playing near-flawless football to beat the Patriots on current form.

Posted in Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals, Week 4 Instant Analysis, Sammy Morris, Kenny Watson, Carson Palmer, Monday Night Football, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, New England Patriots, Tom Brady, Analysis | No Comments »

NFL Week 4 Featured Preview: New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

October 1st, 2007 5:07 am
by Pro Set

New England (3-0) @ Cincinnati (1-2) Monday Night Football 8:30pm ET on ESPN

Let’s hope that the Cincinnati defense is ready for some football as the Bengals host their second MNF fixture of the season. New England comes to town undefeated and with more weaponry than most third world armies.

There is really only one issue of note regarding this fixture: how the Bengals will attempt to stop the Patriots. The Bengals, remember, gave up 56 points to the Cleveland Browns in Week 2 at Cleveland.

Cincinnati

When the Bengals have the ball, they need to keep it for as long as possible, whilst scoring points. Whilst this sounds counter-intuitive, the simple fact is that the CIN defense is not good enough to stop the Patriots. So the CIN offense must stop the NE offense from even entering the arena as well as scoring. The Bengals running game must be good enough to prevent the NE defense from launching a full scale assault on CIN QB Carson Palmer. Expect the Patriots to put real pressure on early downs in an effort to set up favourable pass rush situations.

In the aerial game, this is a massive chance for Carson Palmer to demonstrate that he is truly an elite NFL QB. I think that he is close, but not quite there yet. Saints QB Drew Brees had a shocker under pressure last week on the MNF stage. Palmer will need to be decisive in his pre-snap reads. I think that he needs to establish his own game with some lasers early on slants and square in routes. Only then can he exploit the hawkish-ness of CB Asante Samuel and others by hitting the NE secondary on double moves. It’s time for WR Chad Johnson to let his football skills do the talking on national television. He has no excuses.

New England

The issue for NE is how patient the team ought to be. I would like to see the Patriots take over the game early and bury the Bengals. This will require good performances on the ground and in the air. RB Laurence Maroney should have a good night against a team that tackles poorly, with too great an emphasis on stripping the ball. Whilst the returns can be spectacular, such as the four fumbles recovered in Week 1 hosting BAL, it means that the Bengals have no margin for error. The Patriots should be able to construct a dominant running game with good second level blocking. Maroney has been serviceable without showing the level of play required to beat playoff defenses. When you play for the Patriots, it will often be in conditions not suitable for passing. Opponents need to respect the NE rushing attack. If NE can’t run on the Bengals, it might indicate the first real weakness in the 2007 Patriots.

Even if the Bengals can stop the NE running game, the porous CIN secondary will struggle against WR Randy Moss. Let’s not waste space by discussing how to cover Moss. It cannot be done for 60 minutes if Moss is up for the game. Prevention is better than cure. The front four of the Bengals simply has to find a way to get quick and multifaceted pressure on QB Tom Brady. So, even if CIN DE Justin Smith has the kind of performance that a former top-ten overall pick might be expected to have, Brady will step up into the pocket and find the target. It will need to be a combination of central pressure and edge rush to upset Brady.

Conclusion

It’s been a weekend of upsets so far. Cincinnati will need to light up the Patriots and score 30 points to win. I am really looking forward to see how Carson Palmer deals with the pre-snap movement of NE. I am also really looking forward simply to watching the Patriots in all facets of the game. And I expect them to win.

Prediction: New England

Posted in Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals, NFL Game Previews, Justin Smith, Asante Samuel, Carson Palmer, Monday Night Football, Game, NFL Franchises/Teams, New England Patriots, Tom Brady, NFL | No Comments »

MNF Week 1

September 10th, 2007 10:44 pm
by Pro Set

Baltimore @ Cincinnati

Second half analysis

The Ravens continued to volunteer a loss with the McNair fumble that was returned for a TD. Since that point, the Ravens have made improvements by using quicker plays. Short passes and simpler running plays have put the onus on CIN to tackle, rather than just to harass. This change in focus allowed BAL to sustain a long FG drive to reduce the gap to 6 (BAL 13-19 CIN). On that drive the Ravens got their first real lucky break when a RB Musa Smith fumble on 3^rd and 4 fell forward across the line to gain and was recovered by the Ravens. Although BAL could not score a TD from 1^st and 10 at the 11, the FG was important to make it a ‘one-play’ game.

Then came the most important offensive series of the game. CIN could not penetrate the BAL front seven on the first 2 downs. And the perceived pressure from the BAL pass rush forced the off target 3^rd down pass that WR Perry could not convert into a reception.

The punt return by SS Ed Reed was helped by terrible punt coverage. Special teams coverage is about the will to beat a block, and Ed Reed was untouched. A lead changing special teams TD is the ultimate in momentum-swing, because of the sense of powerlessness that the starters feel. The starters don’t kick or cover punts, so poor play in those areas magnifies the pressure on the other units to force the play, leading to further mistakes.

Speaking of further mistakes, the fifth turnover by the Ravens cost the visitors another 7 points. A pass play on 3^rd and 1 was picked off the deflection and the momentum swung right back to the Bengals.

With a chance to seal the game with long drive, after forcing a BAL punt, the Bengals turned it over themselves: a Rudi Johnson fumble.

Backup Ravens QB Kyle Boller completed a huge 4^th and 3 pass to WR Derrick Mason and it all came down to a 4^th and goal from inside 1 foot.

The offensive pass interference call against TE Heap was a joke. All he did was push away the hand of Bengals S Dexter Jackson who had a hand full of Heap’s jersey.

Overall, the Ravens have to run the ball with more conviction early in the game and simply trust the defence. The Ravens gave up 24 points from turnovers. This loss comes down to the fact that Brian Billick refused to slow the game down after the first turnover. The Bengals will have to improve their work on early downs. I think that the Bengals will struggle this season against fundamentally sound teams. They have the weapons to destroy weaker teams but a real contender would never have let a +4 turnover margin not be converted into a win until the final drive.

Posted in Steve McNair, Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Analysis, Monday Night Football, Game | No Comments »

Monday night, the stars come out

September 10th, 2007 7:20 am
by Big Dog

It’s an exciting two for the price of one affair on the first Monday Night Football extravaganza of the year. First up Carson Palmer and the Bengals face an enormous task taking on the Baltimore Ravens.

There’s no doubt that Palmer has the ability to make big plays in the air and he has the record against the Ravens to justify feeling confident. That said, his protection for tonight’s game is questionable. With key injuries and an offensive line that is undergoing changes, there’s a lot to watch out for. Added to this is the fact that the Bengals aren’t expected to have a strong running game that can provide them with enough balance to put the Ravens off. If the Bengals can’t get the running game going, then they’re going to struggle to get away with it in the air.

With Ken Whisenhunt making his NFL head coaching debut, the Cardinals have a lot to play for when they take on the 49ers. The big task for the team from Arizona will be to shake of the pass heavy offense they established last season, putting faith in their ability to establish the run right from the start. I’m not disputing that Matt Leinart can pass and do it effectively, but the simple fact is that Cardinals need to put the groundwork in. Keep an eye on Edgerrin James, there’s plenty left in his tank and the last time these two teams met, he put 105 yards on the board.

Enjoy your Monday night, as the stars come out to play.

Posted in Ken Whisenhunt, Baltimore Ravens, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Edgerrin James, Matt Leinart, Cincinnati Bengals, Carson Palmer, Analysis, Game, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, Monday Night Football, NFL Coaches, NFL | No Comments »