Week 13 Analysis: NYG @ Chicago

December 2nd, 2007 9:08 pm
by Big Dog

There’s no pretty way to say this. The Ney York Giants and their battling QB Eli Manning got lucky today. In a game where Manning was continuing his recent and struggling form with two interceptions and a lost fumble, he managed an unexpected fourth quarter comeback that will finally give fans and media in New York something positive to talk about. The best feature of Manning’s game was that he didn’t allow the pressure to get to him. He stayed focused on his job and waited for things to start working. This is a character trait that I’ve long admired in Eli, he copes very well with the additional scrutiny and pressure that is applied to him as a result of his big brother’s stellar career. Eli plays his game and he clearly has the mental toughness to win.

The conditions at Chicago’s Soldier Field were troublesome for both teams. With heavy rain in the morning, and swirling winds throughout the game, it was a difficult game for anyone to get going in the air. Even so, Chicago QB Rex Grossman put in an excellent effort in difficult conditions to complete 25 of 46 passes for 296 yards and a TD. That completion number looks low, but Grossman was especially impressive with his clock management and decision making within the final two minutes of both halves. Good clock management was a real feature of his work and he certainly demonstrated that despite his difficulties earlier in the season, this young QB’s still plenty to offer the Bears. The only consistent flaw in his game today was that he kept getting sacked (6 sacks this game) for big losses by dropping back to allow plays to develop. He should have realised earlier that the best way to beat the Giants’ pass rush (which applied no real pressure on the inside) was to step up into the pocket and buy an extra couple of seconds that way. Doing so would also afforded him better vision of the field.

So, in a simple quarterback comparison, Chicago should have won. As we all know there’s a lot more to football than that. I still believe that there are serious questions to be asked, not just of Eli Manning, but the entire Giants offense and especially Head Coach Tom Coughlin. Manning and his key receivers (WR Plaxico Burress, TE Jeremy Shockey and WR Amani Toomer) have being playing together for several years now and it needs to be asked why these guys haven’t built a better playing relationship. To all appearances they get on very well together and when things work, they work really well, but by now I’d be expecting to see these guys have a better feel and knowledge of what each other is doing on the field. That said, it also needs to be asked of Coach Coughlin, when the QB of the team is struggling with an offense that runs a very vertical passing system, why aren’t there more options in the New York playbook? Where are the mid-range passing plays? Where are the options and adjustments in game?

It’s clear that there are fundamental problems with the Giants offense, but I am unconvinced that the problem is with the players. I have a feeling that it might just be that the team doesn’t know what to do with the players they have. Until the Giants resolve these issues, the best they can hope for is these unconvincing and somewhat fortunate victories.

Posted in Plaxico Burress, NFL on FOX, NFL Coaches, Rex Grossman, Jeremy Shockey, Amani Toomer, Tom Coughlin, NY Giants, Chicago Bears, Analysis, Game, NFL on television, NFL Franchises/Teams, Eli Manning, NFL Players, NFL | No Comments »

NFL Week 3 Instant Analysis Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears

September 24th, 2007 5:34 am
by Pro Set

Dallas 34-10 Chicago

This game was not even close. Let’s look at how the Cowboys got the job done on both sides of the ball.

First, the Dallas O-Line did a great job in pass protection. Even though DAL gave up some holding penalties, the pocket that was created for QB Tony Romo was outstanding. The only way that Chicago could get pressure was by blitzing 2 linebackers straight up the middle. The stats show that MLB Brian Urlacher recorded 2 sacks, but many other times he and his mates were stoned by superior blocking. DT Tommie Harris did not look like a member of the opposing backfield, which is always the first step to victory.

Second, Tony Romo had a sensational night. I wrote in the preview that Romo was confident, and did he deliver or what. His effort was reminiscent of elite performances by top class passers against highly-rated defenses: such as this (BAL @ GB [2001]). Romo went 22-35 (329; 2 TD; INT) and those stats are a travesty. The INT was completely the fault of WR Patrick Crayton, who did not close his hands on a perfectly thrown ball in the first quarter. Romo was also denied a TD pass by Crayton, who dropped an even easier catch wide open on a stop route in the end zone in the 2^nd quarter. With the ensuing FG blocked, DAL had nothing to show for a truly outstanding drive.

Third, the Cowboys were unbelievable on 3^rd and long. My notes are covered with references to 3^rd & 15 and worse. At one point in the first quarter DAL rushed for 7 yards on 1st & 10 only to have consecutive false start penalties and a rush for -2 yards bring up 3^rd & 15 and the Romo pass was intercepted, as described above. WR Terrell Owens recovered from a couple of early drops to dominate the area between the hash marks and make great currency from crossing routes. Makes sure you catch the block laid by WR Sam Hurd on CHI S Adam Archuleta to spring Owens for a big gain on 3^rd & 11 from the DAL 8 with 5:59 left in the 3^rd quarter. Not to be too harsh, but Archuleta is a long-term liability wherever he plays. He can’t run, he can’t cover, and he lives off the one highlight play per season. He’s a poor player who is out of his depth against any decent passing team.

With Chicago struggling on offense, DAL knew that 24 points would give them a shot. And it was all about Romo. His passes were accurate. He got rid of the ball under pressure and kept his eyes up field. The consistent conversion of terrible down and distance scenarios was remarkable. This cannot happen every week, so DAL will have to cut down on penalties.

The Bears played just as I expected. They really tried to leverage the speed of WR Bernard Berrian. As DAL played off Berrian early, QB Rex Grossman, 15-32 (195; 0 TD; 3 INT) made good use of the hooks and curls to move the chains. As DAL then pressed Berrian, Grossman started working the slant. This brought up a major moment in the match. With the game tied at 3-3, and having just hit Berrian for a 1^st down, CHI enjoyed 1^st & 10 (at DAL 34) with 1:24 remaining in the first half. Berrian ran the slant and go, and DAL CB Anthony Henry took the bait. Grossman made the perfect throw, but Berrian dropped it cold.

Chicago got nothing from that drive and proceeded to offer little resistance in the second half. The defense got greedy, trying to strip the ball and make the big play instead of tackling. The Bears defense reminded me of Tampa Bay in the 2000 season. The defense knows that it is a dominant unit, but tries too hard sometimes to make up for the offensive ineptitude. This means that the fundamentally sound gap discipline and tackling form that makes a unit dominant is lost.

Despite an INT, a blocked FG return past midfield, and forcing endless 3^rd & long situations, the Bears defence gave up and the frustration was palpable. It’s hard not to be sympathetic. Grossman made some awful throws, but the key one was when the Bears took over at their own 13 following a DAL FG that made it DAL 20-10 CHI. A slow, high throw to what looked like an out route was picked off by CB Anthony Henry and returned for the TD.

Overall, the Bears have real issues on offense. The players have clearly lost belief in Grossman at QB and that is critical. Defenders need to play with belief and emotion. At present that emotion is centered on joining the home crowd in jeering Grossman. As for DAL, they are smoking. I still have concerns about the DAL run defense but few opponents will have the luxury of pounding away at the DAL front seven if Romo puts 30+ points on the board.

Posted in Bernard Berrian, Tommie Harris, Week 3 Instant Analysis, Brian Urlacher, Adam Archuleta, Rex Grossman, Anthony Henry, Jason Witten, Analysis, Game, NFL Franchises/Teams, Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bears, NFL | No Comments »

NFL Week 3 Featured Preview: Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears

September 22nd, 2007 12:56 am
by Pro Set

Dallas (2-0) @ Chicago (1-1) 8:15pm ET on NBC

In a game with some hallmarks of the 2006 early season showdown when Seattle visited Chicago, the hottest team of the NFC, the Dallas Cowboys, comes to Soldier Field with a chance to improve to 3-0 and gain an important tiebreaker in the NFC.

Dallas has a balanced offense and a confident QB. All the confidence in the world, however, is useless unless the Cowboys can neutralize DT Tommie Harris. I wrote last week that G Leonard Davis needed to deliver, and the same holds true here. The whole DAL interior line must prevent the instantaneous penetration sought by the CHI defense. The quickness and anticipation that Harris brings is phenomenal. Obviously he plays the role that DT Warren Sapp played for Tampa Bay, where Lovie Smith used to coach. The disruption and closing speed that Harris displayed in Week 1 at San Diego reminded me of Sapp in his prime.

The Dallas running game will struggle if it is forced to try perimeter rushes. A genuine effort must be made to run at the heart of the CHI defense. DT Dusty Dvoracek is out for the season, although you would not know it from the official league depth chart) and DE Alex Brown will play on a bad ankle. DAL RB Julius Jones has played acceptably so far this season. I would like to see him attack the line of scrimmage more and carry tacklers forward. If he can’t get it done, the Cowboys must turn to RB Marion Barber. It is these yards on early downs that bring up 3^rd & 5 or better and allow DAL to keep drives alive.

The DAL passing game will have to be sharp. Although ESPN breathlessly states that WR Terrell Owens is averaging 23 yards per reception, this ignores his recent tendency to drop passes. Look for DAL QB Tony Romo, who has been outstanding through 2 weeks, to focus on short drops. For DAL, quick hooks to TE Jason Witten and crossing routes and slants to Owens figure to be the best way to get safe production in the passing game. The strength of Romo is his ability to get rid of the ball. Against this turnover driven CHI defense, if his early reads are covered on short drops, he must be prepared to keep the ball. Romo has to avoid turnovers, and therefore put all the pressure on the CHI offense. Against CHI, to punt inside the 20 is to succeed.

When Chicago has the football, the Bears must protect it. Despite the fact that RB Cedric Benson rushed for over 100 yards last Sunday, CHI has not yet established a dominant ground game. This is their chance. DAL NT Jason Ferguson is out for the season and CHI will try to run the ball inside the tackles. Expect DAL to stack the box and use S Roy Williams as a virtual linebacker in order to force the Bears to throw the ball. Stuffing the run on first down will place huge pressure on QB Rex Grossman, who is under pressure from Bears fans.

Following the turnover-ridden defeat at San Diego, the Bears needed help from special teams to beat Kansas City. The Bears have produced only one 10+ play drive this season (15 plays; 79 yards; TD vs KC). In Week 1 against the Chargers, the Bears had one 8 play drive (27 yards), and a 6 play drive (35 yards).

With CHI unable to move the football with rhythm, expect the Bears to look for the big play early. DAL S Roy Williams struggles when the ball is in the air, allowing too many passes to get in behind him. WR Bernard Berrian is the big play threat, and look for Grossman to throw the deep sideline patterns where Berrian can take on CB Anthony Henry. CB Terence Newman is out again and the DAL secondary will be stretched. If the Cowboys try to prevent Berrian from getting deep, WR Muhsin Muhammed must keep the chains moving with safe hands.

If the Cowboys can contain CB Devin Hester on special teams, and avoid turnovers, the DAL defense can win this game for the Cowboys. The Bears will need Grossman to win over the home crowd and prevent the game from becoming a nationally televised meltdown. In an upset that could derail the Bears’ season, I like the Cowboys.

Prediction: DAL

Line: DAL

Posted in Anthony Henry, NFL Game Previews, Terence Newman, Jason Witten, Lovie Smith, Tommie Harris, Devin Hester, Muhsin Muhammed, Bernard Berrian, Julius Jones, Leonard Davis, NFL Players, NFL Franchises/Teams, Game, Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, NFL Coaches, Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bears, NFL | No Comments »

Week 2 Featured Preview

September 15th, 2007 9:53 pm
by Pro Set

San Diego @ New England 8:15pm ET on NBC

Last season San Diego compiled a 14-2 record that culminated in a first round bye and a home divisional playoff. New England defeated San Diego in one of the most compelling and intense NFL games that I have ever seen. When a team sacks a 14-2 coach because of one loss, nothing more needs to be said about how much pain surrounds that playoff exit.

For this monster game, new San Diego coach Norv Turner will look to replicate the overwhelming pressure and crisp ball movement that gave them what appeared to be a winning lead at Qualcomm. It will not be easy. QB Philip Rivers looked a little rusty last week, going 22-31 (190; INT). There has been an injury cloud over some skill players in the SD offense. WR Eric Parker is out; and TE Antonio Gates is probable with a back injury. This all leads to the obvious conclusion that San Diego will struggle to beat the Patriots through the air. For not the first time, the burden will rest upon RB Ladainian Tomlinson to gain the early down yardage that prevents 3^rd and long. Many of his carries last week resembled the infamous outing he had in 2005 at Philadelphia. In this game, however, Tomlinson is also going to be critical as a receiver; a previously huge facet of the SD offense which I thought was underused last week hosting Chicago. With Patriots S Rodney Harrison suspended and with DE Richard Seymour injured, San Diego has to get on top between the tackles. Look for the Patriots to cover Gates with LB Adalius Thomas, and I suspect that LB Rosevelt Colvin will deal with Tomlinson on passing plays.

For San Diego, I would eschew max protect and try to take advantage of NE blitzes with swing passes. This means that Rivers will have to make the perfect pre-snap read of the NE defense, but maybe he can get the inside word on signals from Bill Belichick.

When New England has the ball, San Diego has real problems. The best San Diego strategy to prevent QB Tom Brady from having time to set and throw deep to WR Randy Moss might be the all-out blitz. Brady, however, will hang in the pocket regardless of pressure and will keep his eyes up to spot the open receiver. One other huge game where this strategy was used against New England was by Denver (2005 AFC Divisional Playoff). Even though Denver won, it was only because Brady fractionally missed three or four deep balls where Denver had completely sold out and brought up to 8 players. It follows that San Diego must get central pressure on passing downs through DT Luis Castillo and edge pressure through LB Shawne Merriman. CB Drayton Florence cannot cover Moss alone.

In the running game, it will be the usual story of how much help C Dan Koppen needs to deal with NT Jamal Williams. If Koppen gets help from a guard to stop the initial surge, and then the Patriot interior linemen can get a hat on the SD linebackers, this game is over. The Bears were able to run up the middle last week, and it was fumbles, rather than tackles in the backfield, that generally halted the CHI rushing attack.

Overall, New England appears to have too good an offense not to score at least 20 points. It is hard to see San Diego matching the pace. I think that the best chance for the Chargers is if they get an early lead and goad the Patriots into being overaggressive on both sides of the ball. The home crowd pressure to throw deep to Moss will be there.

But I think that the Patriots are smarter than that, and will patiently run the ball, and trust Brady on third down. Expect New England to win unless the turnover margin is greater than +2 in favour of San Diego.

Posted in Norv Turner, Antonio Gates, Bill Belichick, Shawne Merriman, Denver Broncos, Richard Seymour, Rodney Harrison, NFL Game Previews, Philip Rivers, Drayton Florence, LaDainian Tomlinson, NFL Coaches, Randy Moss, NFL on NBC, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL on television, Analysis, Game, Eric Parker, Philadelphia Eagles, Tom Brady, New England Patriots, Chicago Bears, San Diego Chargers, NFL | No Comments »

NFL 2007 Week 1 Featured Previews

September 9th, 2007 2:56 am
by Pro Set

Philadelphia @ Green Bay (1pm ET on FOX)

PHI: -3.5

GB: +3.5

These two teams have been regular conference opponents. GB will be looking to utilise CB Al Harris and CB Charles Woodson to shut down the PHI passing game. This will allow the GB front seven to use safety help in preventing the Eagles from running the ball and clamping down on the notorious short passing game so loved by Eagles coach Andy Reid.

The key to the PHI passing game is whether Eagles QB Donovan McNabb can air it out early and open up some room underneath. I do not think that he needs to complete the deep passes, but a couple of early fades (even deliberate overthrows to eliminate INT risk) will put doubt in the Packers secondary. No DB likes to be burnt after being given plenty of warning.

On the ground, Eagles RB Brian Westbrook must avoid being overly ambitious and must hit the first hole with conviction. This will supply the better down and distance opportunities that allow options to the Eagles in play-calling. McNabb is the key to the third down conversions, and must be prepared to use his legs as soon as his first read is covered. Not only will this lessen the reliance on the questionable PHI receivers, but will also lessen the risk of turnovers.

For the GB offence, QB Brett Favre simply has to be patient. Against a traditionally aggressive PHI defence, opportunities will come to those who wait. This clearly demands that the GB pass protection must be consistent. Few passers are better than Favre at keeping his eyes downfield, but that leaves him open to a lot of hits simultaneous to throwing.

The Packers running game is an unknown commodity, with former RB Ahman Green now at Houston. Expect the Eagles to play slightly more conservatively than usual on defence, trusting the front seven, especially new addition LB Takeo Spikes, to cover the run. This will allow the Eagles safeties to double Packers WR Donald Driver whenever necessary.

Overall, if the Eagles commit zero turnovers and allow no special teams touchdowns, they should win, despite having a coach with a history of questionable clock management. The only chance that the Packers have is to combine a positive turnover margin with a 100+ passer rating on third down.

Prediction: PHI win

Line: PHI

Chicago @ San Diego (4:15pm ET on FOX)

CHI: +6.5

SD: -6.5

The equation for CHI on the road is pretty simple: stop Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson and have QB Rex Grossman put on a flawless exhibition of game management. When the Bears have the ball RB Cedric Benson will have to win the first down battle against Chargers NT Jamal Williams. This means that the key match-up in the entire game for mine is Williams versus Bears C Olin Kreutz. Unless the Bears can run the ball inside, Grossman will be facing consistently difficult down and distance equations. In this scenario Chargers LB Shawn Merriman is a huge threat as a one-man pass rush.

On the other hand, if Benson can get some momentum, Grossman can use WR Bernard Berrian on the deep play action pass. The speed of Berrian is something that should concern the Chargers.

For the SD offence, the temptation will be there to challenge the Bears defence. I think that over-aggression would be a mistake. Chargers QB Philip Rivers has no need to prove how good he is, at the risk of turning the ball over and allowing the Bears to play with a lead. It seems like Chargers WR Eric Parker will be absent so expect TE Anotonio Gates to receive the primary coverage from the Bears, most probably LB Brian Urlacher running with him, aided by a safety over the top.

I would like to see the Chargers concentrate on field position and let the inevitable Grossman mistakes give them control. Whilst this is hardly the game plan of a potential Super Bowl champion, the win is all that counts here. This is not college football, there are no style points or votes, and doing the simple things well under former coach Marty Schottenheimer did get the Chargers to 14-2 last season.

In summary, if SD commits no turnovers and if K Nate Kaeding is true from inside 50 yards, the Chargers will win. The Bears will need a breakout game from Grossman and a consistent push from the O-line.

Prediction: SD win

Line: SD

NY Giants @ Dallas (8:15pm ET on NBC)

NYG: +5.5

DAL: -5.5

Despite the fact that the Giants have performed quite well in Dallas in recent seasons, notably the excellent win there in 2005, the mystique of DAL QB Tony Romo sees many predicting a strong season from the Cowboys.

When the Giants have the ball, QB Eli Manning has to make the right read early and throw to advantage. His throws too often cause the receiver to lose momentum or dive and this shackles the ability to run after the catch, let alone the increase in drops. As a pocket passer, his mechanics will have to improve otherwise third down conversions are going to be tough.

The DAL defence should concentrate on preventing NYG from exploiting the DAL pass rush with screens and swing passes. Players such as LB DeMarcus Ware and SS Roy Williams (when blitzing) need to recognise quickly when the blitz is welcome. The key for this will be if Ware can recognise the cut block at left tackle and read the quick release. This is how a good pass rusher can intercept slant passes and disrupt screens.

For DAL, the Giants running game should not worry them unduly. This means that they can expect decent time of possession. Patience will be necessary and with WR Terry Glenn likely to be out, the issue will be keeping WR Terrell Owens happy when he is being double covered. This will be a big test for the game management skills of QB Tony Romo. He throws well, but he has to erase the memories of the disaster at Seattle in the NFC Wild Card playoff.

I think that he will continue his great start to the NFL and lead DAL to a crucial (but tight) divisional win. The pressure from the Cowboys defence will force Eli Manning into errors. The best chance for NYG is if Manning can complete deep passes to WR Burress and also complete play action passes to TE Shockey. This all depends on the NYG O-line dominating, and that, to me, is unlikely.

Prediction: DAL

Line: DAL

Posted in Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles, Terry Glenn, San Diego Chargers, Chicago Bears, NFL Game Previews, NY Giants, Dallas Cowboys, Terrell Owens, Olin Kreutz, NFL on television, Analysis, Game, NFL on NBC, Eli Manning, Brett Favre, Eric Parker, Tony Romo, NFL | 1 Comment »