October 4th, 2007 9:43 am
by NFL Freak
For most NFL teams, the season is already 25% complete. Let’s examine what’s happened so far in the AFC.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills (1-3)
A season-saving divisional win (vs NYJ) has given a spark to the Bills. The only NFL team based in New York can build on that momentum when Dallas visits Orchard Park for the first MNF game in Buffalo in 13 seasons. The Buffalo folk prefer day games, since so many of their fans have such long car trips to the game. Expect the Bills to be out of contention by the halfway point of the season. Dick Jauron is a nice guy, but he just can’t win playoff games, so there is no future in that relationship.
Miami Dolphins (0-4)
What a contrast for the former San Diego coordinators. MIA Coach Cam Cameron finally gets some heat applied after a terrible loss at home to Oakland. Despite acquiring a veteran (and proven) QB in Trent Green, I think that the Dolphins are just too old on the defensive side of the ball. If I’m Wayne Huizenga, I would ask why LB Zach Thomas and DE Jason Taylor ought not to be traded to real contenders in order to beef up the team in next year’s draft. Sorry, Dolphins fans, but this season will not extend into January. Expect a mid-season rally of sorts, but 0-4 in the AFC is irreparable damage.
New England Patriots (4-0)
The standout team in the entire NFL has been the Patriots. Courtesy of the overzealous hysteria about Spygate, the Patriots have clearly bonded and look to be too good. I missed the Salem witch trials, but it’s always refreshing to see history repeating itself. I’m sure, however, that QB Tom Brady is fired more by the crushing disappointment of consecutive seasons with playoff losses. An NFL career is only ever one play away from ending (as we unfortunately saw with BUF LB Kevin Everett). Most Patriot players are set for life. It is the diminishing window of opportunity that drives them. NE is the clear favourite for now. If Roger Goodell had some steel, he’d instruct the Patriots to print post-season tickets now.
New York Jets (1-3)
It’s been a disappointing 4 years since QB Chad Pennington led the Jets to the AFC East title. With RB Thomas Jones combining with RB Leon Washington, I expected the Jets to be able to run the ball well. Pennington needs good play action to be able to hit WR Laveranues Coles. The loss last Sunday at Buffalo will really hurt. I just cannot see the Jets grabbing an AFC Wild Card without 10 wins. And I don’t think that the Jets can go 9-3 from here with games against Dallas, New England and Baltimore still to go.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens (2-2)
This is the one of the most disappointing 2-2 starts in the NFL. The Ravens are 0-2 in the division and will need to sweep Pittsburgh to win the AFC North. QB Steve McNair looks like he’s just had one campaign too many. There are only so many big plays that SS Ed Reed can make. This team has issues on both sides of the ball. As for Brian Billick, his 2001 axing of Trent Dilfer in favour of a passing philosophy with QB Elvis Grbac should have already led to his removal. The Ravens are in decline.
Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)
Clearly the Bengals have issues on defense. QB Carson Palmer has too much pressure on him to produce scores on every drive. This team will give up at least 24 points per game on average. With RB Rudi Johnson not being a true breakaway threat, this means that Palmer needs to have 35-40 TD passes this season. He might just get there. Whether the Bengals are playoff-calibre or not will be determined by their series against the NFC West. If Cincy cannot dominate a division without a standout team, the show is over. Remember, WR Chris Henry is nominally able to play after midseason (assuming Goodell reinstates him). Henry is better than the nickel corner for most teams. Anything less than a playoff win is a failure for Cincinnati.
Cleveland Browns (2-2)
After an opening week that exceeded even the most dismal prognostications, the Browns are now 2-1 in the division. QB Derek Anderson has been the man of the moment. It also appears that Cleveland has avoided the receiver curse in the draft with WR Braylon Edwards. I’m just not sure what to make of this team. In Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow, Cleveland has top class weapons. Unfortunately for Browns fans, I think that the Dawg Pound will be empty come January. The Browns have 3 divisional road games to come, as well as facing the Patriots. A winning record is possible, and I think that a winning record will save Romeo Crennel from the chop.
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)
It’s hard to get a read on the Steelers. They key will be winning divisional games. Fortunately for Pittsburgh, it seems as thought the Steelers can rely on the rest of the AFC North knocking each other off. QB Ben Roethlisberger is the best game management QB in the division. Unlike the other teams in the AFC North, Pittsburgh does not have that brittle edge that can lead to implosion. I see PIT going at least 4-2 in the division, and 3-1 against the AFC East. Splitting their other games brings out a 10-6 record, so expect PIT to make the playoffs.
AFC South
Houston Texans (2-2)
For the first time in my life, I backed the Houston Texans (-3) at Atlanta last Sunday. Despite my retained bitterness, I am still impressed by the 2-2 start. The struggles against JAX (against whom HOU has a great record) and TEN will be fascinating. I like this division as the supplier of two playoff teams. For the Texans, QB Matt Schaub must continue to improve. Unless RB Ahman Green can prove me wrong and show that his best is not yet a distant memory, I think that the Texans can only win through the air. WR Andre Davis will need to stay healthy. I think that the Texans will run out of steam and finish 8-8, but at least HOU season ticket holders will have meaningful football to watch come December.
Indianapolis Colts (3-0)
The Colts are looking good without making too much noise. The Colts are already 2-0 in the division. I can’t see them losing to any team from the NFC either. QB Peyton Manning is now truly an elite NFL QB. I was one of the last doubters. The division is theirs if the Colts defensive front four can stay healthy. The loss of DT Anthony McFarland will be keenly felt. DE Dwight Freeney is deadly when the Colts have the lead in the second half. I still think, despite all the hype about S Bob Sanders, that teams can run on Indy with success. With the Chargers struggling, all signs point to another AFC decider between the Colts and the Patriots. The venue will matter.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1)
The bombshell that began the JAX season has proven to be successful so far. QB David Garrard has led the Jags to wins at Denver and verus Atlanta. JAX coach Jack Del Rio will still be upset that the inevitable teething problems of the Byron Leftwich issue spilled over into an opening day home divisional loss. If JAX misses the playoffs by a game, he will bitterly regret not acting earlier. For mine, RB Fred Taylor is in his final effective season. Between Taylor and RB Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX has to get back to pounding the ball, and then stopping the run through DT John Henderson and DT Marcus Stroud. Remember, however, that TEN ran for over 200 yards at JAX. With JAX already having had their bye, injuries will hurt them more than most as the season progresses.
Tennessee Titans (2-1)
The Titans are looking like the most improved team in the NFL. When one recalls their steamrolling finish to 2006, however, this is to be expected. QB Vince Young has clearly brought a sense of belief and excitement to the team. His passing is still developing, but he has the intangible quality of competitiveness that separates good players from winning players. I have been most impressed with the TEN defense. As long as the Titans can get pressure on the passer with only 4 down linemen, they will win games. With winnable games against AFC West teams and a weak NFC South, TEN should get 10 wins. The crucial games are, obviously, the divisional rivalries. If TEN goes 4-2 in the AFC South, expect them to be returning to the playoffs for the first time since the 2003 season.
AFC West
Denver Broncos (2-2)
Denver have given themselves a reliable start to the season and can build on their early success. Given their performance so far, you have to like the Broncos as they prepare to face the San Diego Chargers this Sunday. There’s no question that Mike Shanahan has his work cut out for him and will need to build more consistency into the team on both sides of the ball, but the Broncos are a real playoff chance.
Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)
The Chiefs crushed the San Diego Chargers last week, and it’s hard to tell if this is more an indication of the Chiefs’ form, or the Chargers’. QB Damon Huard seems to be settling in well and the Chiefs have made some ground on their passing game. That said, there’s still a long way to go till the playoffs - Chiefs fans, don’t hold your breath.
Oakland Raiders (2-2)
Oakland haven’t had the convincing start many expected. While they’ve had some strong wins and individual performances (including Daunte Culpepper against Miami), Oakland will need to win convincingly against the San Diego Chargers in order to convince the rest of us that they’re a genuine prospect.
San Diego Chargers (1-3)
San Diego have by far and away been the shock disappointment of the season so far. Expectations have been high following their 14-2 record of last season. It was big news when Norv Turner was brought in as a replacement coach for a successful team. Many Chargers fans can now justifiably question the sanity of that decision. Despite Turner’s reputation as an offensive specialist, the Chargers have comprehensively failed to ignite that half of their game. Star RB LaDainian Tomlinson has struggled to get things going, and there are serious questions to be asked about QB Philip Rivers’ decision making. At this point it’s difficult to see San Diego being able to realistically aim for much more than trying to finish the season with a winning record. Especially now that they’ve marked themselves as the weak team in the division. Everyone will be gunning for them.
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