NY Giants @ Denver Thursday Night Football Preview

November 26th, 2009 8:16 am
by Pro Set

Denver is finally doing justice to my pessimism about Broncos football. As noted in last week’s Chargers at Broncos preview, Denver cannot run the ball. Early in the season Denver beat Dallas and New England at Mile High on big play catches from WR Brandon Marshall. The only thing he can hold onto now is RB Knowshon Moreno’s jersey as they fight over fumbles. The bizarre faux start of QB Kyle Orton last week intrigued me. The first thought that I had as Dan Fouts announced that Orton was ‘seriously’ warming up was: McDaniels did not want to register a loss with Orton as his starting QB. At season’s end McDaniels can say ‘we lost games when Orton was not starting due to injury.’ There’s no other explanation. By the way, Dick Enberg needs to retire right now. He obviously cannot see the field properly.

Thanksgiving note: Denver should be thankful that QB Jay Cutler is destroying the Bears, otherwise McDaniels would be under huge pressure right now.

New York played well last Sunday against a good Atlanta offense. The Giants have been hearing it over allowing the game into overtime, but the Falcons played very well in the final quarter. I’d be a much richer man had the Falcons won that toss in OT, as I had the Falcons on the money line. QB Eli Manning threw the ball superbly after the first quarter. But to win at Denver on short rest the Giants will need to run the ball and to throw play action passes. I would like to see some I-Form big (two TEs and two backs). Since Orton has to be expected to play, the Giants need to avoid the temptation to blitz. Orton will be very immobile. This means that seven man coverages (probably Cover 2 zone or Cover 2 man under) will force Orton to execute perfect throws off a bad plant foot. Blitzing allows more margin for error. QB mobility is actually more important against traditional coverage defense, since the QB needs to buy time for receivers to become open. If the Giants do not give up the big play, and keep it clean, the Giants should win.

Thanksgiving note: The last time the Giants visited Denver the world was very different. It was on Monday Night Football (10 September 2001) and the play of the game was an 85 yard punt by NYG P Rodney Williams. It was the first game at Invesco Field. I don’t know what’s planned for pregame tomorrow, but it would be nice to see the victims of 9/11 honoured by the NFL on a nationally televised game.

Posted in Analysis, Brian Dawkins, Denver Broncos, Eli Manning, Game, Jay Cutler, Josh McDaniels, Kyle Orton, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Thanksgiving Day Football, NFL on television, NY Giants, Tom Coughlin | No Comments »

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Thanksgiving Day Football Preview

November 25th, 2009 7:39 pm
by Big Dog

Thanksgiving isn’t a holiday that traditionally brings a lot of thankfulness to Detroit. They’ve lost their last few national appearances by wide margins and it’s a tough task again for them this week.

Green Bay Packers

Detroit’s pass defense is not doing the team any favours and it’s pretty reasonable to expect that Green Bay will be able to open up the field and let Rodgers put up some good numbers. If the Packers O-Line can get it together then Green Bay’s passing game should spread the Lions defense and create room for Grant when he’s needed.

Green Bay’s run defense is setting a standard. They haven’t let any rusher gain 100 yards since week 3, and they’ve faced the Vikings twice in that time. Detroit have struggled to put together a real ground game, often defaulting to the screen which can be effective but isn’t really the same thing.

What they’re thankful for: That they’re playing Detroit.

Detroit Lions

There’s a good chance that Detroit will struggle to live up to offensive expectations against Green Bay’s defensive backs. This will be especially true if Stafford really doesn’t play. If that happens then Culpepper will be required to manage the clock and minimise risks.

The Lions’ run defense is marginally better than their pass defense, and this week they’re helped by the fact that Ryan Grant isn’t the most electrifying running back in the league. Mostly this contest will come down to the battle at the line. If Detroit’s D-Line can gain dominance against the Packers O-Line then they’re in with a chance. Of course, this also depends on the line not making any embarrassing mistakes.

What they’re thankful for: That turkey, stuffing and beer will render most of their fans numb to the result.

Prediction

It seems pretty clear that Green Bay have the advantage in this holiday showdown. Packers 31 – 17

Posted in Aaron Rodgers, Analysis, Daunte Culpepper, Detroit Lions, Game, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL Thanksgiving Day Football, NFL on television, NFL schedule | No Comments »

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins Monday Night Football Week 5 Preview

October 12th, 2009 8:38 am
by Big Dog

The Jets picked up their first loss of the season last week and the Dolphins finally proved that they could win. Who will gain the upper hand in week 5? Let’s take a closer look at the teams and find out.

New York Jets

Coach Rex Ryan and his 4th ranked defense played a great game last week, but in the end it was some vital errors from rookie QB Mark Sanchez that proved decisive. What will really prove Sanchez’s status will be if he can bounce back this week with a performance that makes a statement. His coach certainly believes that it’s a possibility. The other interesting element will be the addition of Braylon Edwards to the team. The Jets have paid heftily to secure the trade, but if Sanchez and Edwards connect then this could be the final piece of the puzzle that makes the Jets into a real contender. Of course the Jets defense will need to continue dominating at the line, and will definitely need to contain the Dolphins’ wild run if they want to bounce back from last week. Expect the return of Calvin Pace to make bring a real boost to the intensity of this defense.

Miami Dolphins

Despite my initial doubts, it appears that the wildcat is working for the Dolphins. At least if you measure success in terms of yards gained. The team’s averaging 180+ yards on the ground per game, but have still only managed to win one of their first four outings. Chad Pennington is now out for the season and while the Fins’ one win came with Chad Henne behind centre, he was hardly an inspirational quarterback. And to be fair, you have to expect that it will take the guy a little time to settle into the starting position. The big question for the Dolphins is if they can turn their yardage on the ground into points on the board. That will be a tough ask against a newly reinforced Baltimore Jets defense. Right now there are big questions over the Dolphins and a shortage of clear answers.

Prediction

It’s clear that the battle for dominance on the ground will be decisive in this matchup and based on form so far this season it also seems equally clear that the Jets defense is in a more dominant position than the Dolphins offense. The Dolphins have struggled to convert where it counts, on the scoreboard. I’m predicting a strong Sanchez comeback and a Jets win 27 – 14

Posted in Analysis, Chad Pennington, Game, Miami Dolphins, Monday Night Football, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, NFL schedule, New York Jets, Week 5 Instant Analysis | No Comments »

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings – Week 4 Monday Night Football Preview

October 5th, 2009 8:16 am
by Big Dog

Monday Night Football is brewing up a storm tonight as the Vikings play host to the Green Bay Packers. It should be a fierce battle as the Vikings finally get to experience what it feels like to face the Packers with Brett Favre on their side.

Green Bay Packers

With Chad Clifton questionable for the game, and with the Vikings currently sitting as the 4th most aggressive defense in the league, Rodgers is really going to need to step up his game and improve his passing percentage. He’s done well to avoid giving the ball away so far this season, but he has to make some plays if the Packers are to have any hopes of the win here. A lot of defensive attention will be paid by the Packers to Favre, but in all honesty that’s a simple distraction and Mike McCarthy will surely be doing his best to instead try to contain the Vikings running game, while maintaining reasonable coverage. It’s an easier task than it sounds because while the Vikings can definitely run the football, Favre is still playing like he thinks he’s a kid, taking chances and making throws. If the Pack’s want to win this one, they’re going to need to play more like Brett would.

Minnesota Vikings

I’ve heard tell that “Favring” is a new verb, meaning to retire and then comeback, retire and then comeback. While there’s little doubt that Brett Favre has toyed with football fans everywhere in his off-season flip-flopping, there’s also clearly no question that he’s come to Minnesota to really play football. He’s not riding Peterson’s hard running path to glory, instead working the pocket and making plays to ensure that the Vikings really do have a balanced attack. He’s only given away one interception so far this season and the Vikings defense have been crushingly effective. If they can take advantage of key matchups at the line, expect the Vikings pass rush to become intimately familiar with Aaron Rodgers.

Prediction

There’s a lot at stake for both teams in tonight’s game. Pride, divisional standing, history, personal scores – all of these come into play. At the end of the day, right now the Vikings seem to have a more cohesive football team as a whole and better options to take the win at home. I’m going Vikings 24 – 21

Posted in Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson, Analysis, Brett Favre, Game, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Monday Night Football, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, NFL schedule, Week 4 Instant Analysis | 2 Comments »

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots – Week 4 Preview

October 4th, 2009 11:46 am
by Big Dog

In a week when it’s arguable that most games will have relatively foregone conclusions, the Baltimore and New England face-off is an opportunity for some interesting and potentially surprising gameplay.

New England Patriots

As long as Tom Brady can stay upright and throw a football, the Patriots are almost certainly going to be favourites heading into pretty much any game. But as the New York Jets and Rex Ryan proved a couple of weeks ago, the Patriots are very beatable. Especially if you can put Brady under pressure. This has been the key weakness in the Patriots offense for several years now and they’ve really only been getting away with it because of their enduring ability to come through with strong offense when they need it most. If the Patriots O-Line can buy Brady enough time to let his receivers get deep then you have expect that they will be able to outperform the Ravens secondary.

Baltimore Ravens

Given that Coach Ryan made his name at Baltimore, you can expect the Ravens to have learned a lot from what they saw the Jets do. That said, you can also bet that the Patriots learned a hell of a lot from that game as well. In fact, given the identical ahem, similar nature of the Jets and Ravens defense this season, it’s very possible that New York’s success will be to Baltimore’s disadvantage. If the Ravens can manage to get to Brady a few times, rush him and disrupt his rhythm, then the game will be theirs for the taking. If in the attempt they create space for Brady to throw into, then it will be their undoing.

Prediction

The smart money has to be with the Patriots at home against a defense they’ve already seen this season. But that’s why I don’t look after our Best Bets page, I’m not known for sticking with the smart money. I’m calling it for the Ravens 17 – 13.

Posted in Analysis, Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Game, NFL, NFL Betting, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, NFL schedule, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Tom Brady | No Comments »

Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos Week 4 Preview

October 3rd, 2009 10:54 am
by Pro Set

Dallas (2-1) has not travelled to Denver since 1998 meaning that the Cowboys grace Invesco Field for the first time. Denver embarrassed Dallas in their last meeting on Thanksgiving Day no less. This Cowboys team is feeling very little love despite its winning record. QB Tony Romo (57%; 4 TD; 3 INT) needs to throw the ball better. WR Roy Williams (8 rec; 179 yds; 1 TD) needs to gain his quarterback’s confidence.  It was telling that Jason Garrett ordered an endzone fade to TE Martellus Bennett on MNF in the win over Carolina. When that pass is thrown to Williams on a consistent basis, it will signify that he is the #1 WR. On the ground, both RB Marion Barber (QST) and RB Felix Jones (OUT) will contribute little. RB Tashard Choice, however, has shown enough to warrant respect from the Donkeys (a.k.a Broncos defense). It is critical for Dallas that Choice presents a credible ground threat, in order for TE Jason Witten to get free on play action. A credible ground threat will require a solid performance from the Cowboys O-line. Remember to sink a beer when T Flozell Adams executes his mandatory false start.

Denver (3-0) is faring better than expected in the AFC West. It is important to note that Denver, when it matters, has not trailed by more than a score this season. QB Kyle Orton (56%; 3 TD; 0 INT) is not known from dramatic comebacks. RB Correll Buckhalter (31 car; 230 yds) might be averaging over 7 ypc, but Dallas will provide a sterner test. The Cowboys were able to cause significant disruption on 1st down against Carolina. NT Jay Ratliff will look to get inside penetration adn force Denver to run outside. The Denver interior line will need to drive through the point of attack. If Denver gets its guards onto the Dallas linebackers, the game is theirs to control. This will also set up bootleg passing for Orton.  Dallas, overall, should win as long as points off turnovers work in the Cowboys’ favour.

Posted in Analysis, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Game, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Thanksgiving Day Football, NFL on FOX, NFL schedule | No Comments »

New England Patriots @ New York Jets Preview

September 19th, 2009 1:03 pm
by Big Dog

Well it’s not really a surprise to anybody that the Patriots are coming off a win against Buffalo. What IS surprising, is how they very nearly didn’t. You can make all the excuses you like, but the simple truth is that the Patriots don’t have it together yet. Brady was very pressured by the Bills‘ pass rush, especially in the first half, and the characteristic Patriots cohesion just wasn’t on display.

At the same time the New York Jets just monstered Houston with the Texans’ only score the result of a combined INT and Fumble Recovery. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez is certainly stirring up the enthusiastic support of Jets fans and with good reason. So far he seems to be stepping up to playing at the elite level with a great deal of poise, maturity and mental presence – all of which he’ll need if he wants to win on Sunday.

New England Patriots

Brady and the Patriots offense put up good numbers last week, with 378 passing yards and 12 receptions each for Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Their running game was seriously hampered and had its lowest output in a while. This formula can’t hold up against the newly revitalised Baltimore Jets defense. Quite simply, the Patriots need to get more yardage on the ground and contain the brutal defensive onslaught the Jets unleashed on the Texans last week. If they can do that, then the Patriots will get the job done.

New York Jets

New head coach Rex Ryan is off to a strong start and has established a foundation for his right to the position on the basis of his defense’s miserly allowance of only 183 total yards against Houston. If his defense can bring that same intensity and success to this Sunday’s game, then they’re in with a chance. The New York Giants showed the way to beat the Patriots in Superbowl XLII, hit Brady hard and often (and pull off a miracle or two). Unsettle the passing game and disrupt the run. Make no mistake, Mark Sanchez is a very good rookie quarterback, but if the Jets are going to beat the Patriots, it will be the defense that wins the game.

Prediction

Any rational football fan has to take the Patriots here. Expect them to bring a journeyman, work-a-day approach to the game, looking to systematically pick the Jets apart. A cold, clinical and methodical approach.

But I’m not a rational fan when it comes to the Patriots. I can respect the team and their success (and I do), but I don’t like their flavour of kool-aid, so I’m not buying it. This might be a case of wishful thinking, but I’m going with the hubris of youth in Sanchez, the point to prove in Rex Ryan and the renewed passion of Jets fans, and most of all – the ferocity of their defense.

New York Jets 31 – 28

Posted in Analysis, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Game, Houston Texans, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, NFL schedule, NY Giants, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Randy Moss, Superbowl, Superbowl XLII, Tom Brady, Wes Welker | No Comments »

Week 1 Game Results

September 17th, 2009 8:40 pm
by Big Dog

The first week is all played out and I’m proud to be able to claim the crown for the moment. I called one more game correctly than ProSet and am going to brag about it while I can. I know for a fact that we were both sweating on Monday’s games, waiting for New England and San Diego to recover from surprising strong starts from Buffalo and Oakland.

Check out the full results over here and tell us how much better you did in the comments. Keep an eye out, our week 2 selections will be up shortly – the games just keep getting bigger and better!

Posted in Analysis, Buffalo Bills, Game, NFL, NFL on television, NFL schedule, New England Patriots, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers | No Comments »

Chicago @ Green Bay Preview

September 13th, 2009 7:30 pm
by Pro Set

The NFL does not need to schedule important divisional matches in Week 1 to ‘spark’ interest in a new season. But, what’s done is done, so let’s focus on what will dominate focus tonight: Bears QB Jay Cutler taking on Packers QB Aaron Rodgers.

With Rodgers now an entrenched starting QB, I feel that he is actually ahead of Cutler. This is especially so early in the season. Coming out of the fair-weather Pac-10, Rodgers is an excellent fast-track quarterback. His opening month last season was something special. Cutler is a prototype pocket passer, but dropping from 8-5 to 8-8 and elimination must pose a question over his leadership abilities.

There have already been some disastrous home opener losses today: Carolina and Tampa Bay headline those. I think that the Packers will be too good at scrimmage. For the Bears to win, turnovers and special teams will need to work in their favour.

Posted in Analysis, Chicago Bears, Game, Green Bay Packers, NFL, NFL Game Previews, NFL on NBC, NFL on television, NFL schedule | No Comments »

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers Preview

September 13th, 2009 8:29 am
by Big Dog

Welcome to the 2010 season, football fans. In a week full of interesting matchups and the beginning of the race to the playoffs, let’s take a quick look at the Eagles @ Panthers game and see what information we can glean.

Philadelphia Eagles

Historically speaking, Andy Reid isn’t renowned for a strong start to the season with his teams. Couple that with some unexpected personnel decisions during the off-season and there are a lot of unanswered questions facing the Eagles this Sunday. The first and biggest of these is surely the Offensive Line, faced with the challenge of holding a very tough Panthers defense while buying McNabb enough time to get the passing game going. If McNabb starts getting sacked, expect his passes to start being rushed and increasingly off target. Unfortunately due to his history with injury, Donovan’s not as light on his feet as he once was, which means that scrambling isn’t much of an option for him. While the Panthers’ corners have been giving away plenty of room in the pre-season, this will only make the job easier for McNabb if his front line holds.

Carolina Panthers

On paper at least, the Eagles look vulnerable up the middle. With a rookie Safety/CB in Victor (Macho) Harris and various troubles in the MLB position, it’s possible that Jake Delhomme will be able to catch the defense off-guard. On the defensive side of the ball, the Panthers really have to win the battle at the line. As mentioned above, their corners have been giving away too much room so far in the pre-season. That has to stop now. If Julius Peppers can unleash the pain he dearly loves to, then the Eagles will really be in trouble.

Conclusion

Ultimately this game will be about one matchup only. The Eagles O-Line vs the Panthers D-Line. The game will be won and lost there. While there are a lot of questions over the Eagles Line, at this stage it looks to me like the Panthers are not playing tight enough in the middle and McNabb/Reid will punish them for this.

Prediction

A close fought game, but Eagles 21-17

Posted in Analysis, Andy Reid, Carolina Panthers, Donovan McNabb, Game, Julius Peppers, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, NFL schedule, Philadelphia Eagles | No Comments »