The AFC so far

October 4th, 2007 9:43 am
by NFL Freak

For most NFL teams, the season is already 25% complete. Let’s examine what’s happened so far in the AFC.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills (1-3)

A season-saving divisional win (vs NYJ) has given a spark to the Bills. The only NFL team based in New York can build on that momentum when Dallas visits Orchard Park for the first MNF game in Buffalo in 13 seasons. The Buffalo folk prefer day games, since so many of their fans have such long car trips to the game. Expect the Bills to be out of contention by the halfway point of the season. Dick Jauron is a nice guy, but he just can’t win playoff games, so there is no future in that relationship.

Miami Dolphins (0-4)

What a contrast for the former San Diego coordinators. MIA Coach Cam Cameron finally gets some heat applied after a terrible loss at home to Oakland. Despite acquiring a veteran (and proven) QB in Trent Green, I think that the Dolphins are just too old on the defensive side of the ball. If I’m Wayne Huizenga, I would ask why LB Zach Thomas and DE Jason Taylor ought not to be traded to real contenders in order to beef up the team in next year’s draft. Sorry, Dolphins fans, but this season will not extend into January. Expect a mid-season rally of sorts, but 0-4 in the AFC is irreparable damage.

New England Patriots (4-0)

The standout team in the entire NFL has been the Patriots. Courtesy of the overzealous hysteria about Spygate, the Patriots have clearly bonded and look to be too good. I missed the Salem witch trials, but it’s always refreshing to see history repeating itself. I’m sure, however, that QB Tom Brady is fired more by the crushing disappointment of consecutive seasons with playoff losses. An NFL career is only ever one play away from ending (as we unfortunately saw with BUF LB Kevin Everett). Most Patriot players are set for life. It is the diminishing window of opportunity that drives them. NE is the clear favourite for now. If Roger Goodell had some steel, he’d instruct the Patriots to print post-season tickets now.

New York Jets (1-3)

It’s been a disappointing 4 years since QB Chad Pennington led the Jets to the AFC East title. With RB Thomas Jones combining with RB Leon Washington, I expected the Jets to be able to run the ball well. Pennington needs good play action to be able to hit WR Laveranues Coles. The loss last Sunday at Buffalo will really hurt. I just cannot see the Jets grabbing an AFC Wild Card without 10 wins. And I don’t think that the Jets can go 9-3 from here with games against Dallas, New England and Baltimore still to go.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (2-2)

This is the one of the most disappointing 2-2 starts in the NFL. The Ravens are 0-2 in the division and will need to sweep Pittsburgh to win the AFC North. QB Steve McNair looks like he’s just had one campaign too many. There are only so many big plays that SS Ed Reed can make. This team has issues on both sides of the ball. As for Brian Billick, his 2001 axing of Trent Dilfer in favour of a passing philosophy with QB Elvis Grbac should have already led to his removal. The Ravens are in decline.

Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)

Clearly the Bengals have issues on defense. QB Carson Palmer has too much pressure on him to produce scores on every drive. This team will give up at least 24 points per game on average. With RB Rudi Johnson not being a true breakaway threat, this means that Palmer needs to have 35-40 TD passes this season. He might just get there. Whether the Bengals are playoff-calibre or not will be determined by their series against the NFC West. If Cincy cannot dominate a division without a standout team, the show is over. Remember, WR Chris Henry is nominally able to play after midseason (assuming Goodell reinstates him). Henry is better than the nickel corner for most teams. Anything less than a playoff win is a failure for Cincinnati.

Cleveland Browns (2-2)

After an opening week that exceeded even the most dismal prognostications, the Browns are now 2-1 in the division. QB Derek Anderson has been the man of the moment. It also appears that Cleveland has avoided the receiver curse in the draft with WR Braylon Edwards. I’m just not sure what to make of this team. In Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow, Cleveland has top class weapons. Unfortunately for Browns fans, I think that the Dawg Pound will be empty come January. The Browns have 3 divisional road games to come, as well as facing the Patriots. A winning record is possible, and I think that a winning record will save Romeo Crennel from the chop.

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)

It’s hard to get a read on the Steelers. They key will be winning divisional games. Fortunately for Pittsburgh, it seems as thought the Steelers can rely on the rest of the AFC North knocking each other off. QB Ben Roethlisberger is the best game management QB in the division. Unlike the other teams in the AFC North, Pittsburgh does not have that brittle edge that can lead to implosion. I see PIT going at least 4-2 in the division, and 3-1 against the AFC East. Splitting their other games brings out a 10-6 record, so expect PIT to make the playoffs.

AFC South

Houston Texans (2-2)

For the first time in my life, I backed the Houston Texans (-3) at Atlanta last Sunday. Despite my retained bitterness, I am still impressed by the 2-2 start. The struggles against JAX (against whom HOU has a great record) and TEN will be fascinating. I like this division as the supplier of two playoff teams. For the Texans, QB Matt Schaub must continue to improve. Unless RB Ahman Green can prove me wrong and show that his best is not yet a distant memory, I think that the Texans can only win through the air. WR Andre Davis will need to stay healthy. I think that the Texans will run out of steam and finish 8-8, but at least HOU season ticket holders will have meaningful football to watch come December.

Indianapolis Colts (3-0)

The Colts are looking good without making too much noise. The Colts are already 2-0 in the division. I can’t see them losing to any team from the NFC either. QB Peyton Manning is now truly an elite NFL QB. I was one of the last doubters. The division is theirs if the Colts defensive front four can stay healthy. The loss of DT Anthony McFarland will be keenly felt. DE Dwight Freeney is deadly when the Colts have the lead in the second half. I still think, despite all the hype about S Bob Sanders, that teams can run on Indy with success. With the Chargers struggling, all signs point to another AFC decider between the Colts and the Patriots. The venue will matter.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1)

The bombshell that began the JAX season has proven to be successful so far. QB David Garrard has led the Jags to wins at Denver and verus Atlanta. JAX coach Jack Del Rio will still be upset that the inevitable teething problems of the Byron Leftwich issue spilled over into an opening day home divisional loss. If JAX misses the playoffs by a game, he will bitterly regret not acting earlier. For mine, RB Fred Taylor is in his final effective season. Between Taylor and RB Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX has to get back to pounding the ball, and then stopping the run through DT John Henderson and DT Marcus Stroud. Remember, however, that TEN ran for over 200 yards at JAX. With JAX already having had their bye, injuries will hurt them more than most as the season progresses.

Tennessee Titans (2-1)

The Titans are looking like the most improved team in the NFL. When one recalls their steamrolling finish to 2006, however, this is to be expected. QB Vince Young has clearly brought a sense of belief and excitement to the team. His passing is still developing, but he has the intangible quality of competitiveness that separates good players from winning players. I have been most impressed with the TEN defense. As long as the Titans can get pressure on the passer with only 4 down linemen, they will win games. With winnable games against AFC West teams and a weak NFC South, TEN should get 10 wins. The crucial games are, obviously, the divisional rivalries. If TEN goes 4-2 in the AFC South, expect them to be returning to the playoffs for the first time since the 2003 season.

AFC West

Denver Broncos (2-2)

Denver have given themselves a reliable start to the season and can build on their early success. Given their performance so far, you have to like the Broncos as they prepare to face the San Diego Chargers this Sunday. There’s no question that Mike Shanahan has his work cut out for him and will need to build more consistency into the team on both sides of the ball, but the Broncos are a real playoff chance.

Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)

The Chiefs crushed the San Diego Chargers last week, and it’s hard to tell if this is more an indication of the Chiefs’ form, or the Chargers’. QB Damon Huard seems to be settling in well and the Chiefs have made some ground on their passing game. That said, there’s still a long way to go till the playoffs – Chiefs fans, don’t hold your breath.

Oakland Raiders (2-2)

Oakland haven’t had the convincing start many expected. While they’ve had some strong wins and individual performances (including Daunte Culpepper against Miami), Oakland will need to win convincingly against the San Diego Chargers in order to convince the rest of us that they’re a genuine prospect.

San Diego Chargers (1-3)

San Diego have by far and away been the shock disappointment of the season so far. Expectations have been high following their 14-2 record of last season. It was big news when Norv Turner was brought in as a replacement coach for a successful team. Many Chargers fans can now justifiably question the sanity of that decision. Despite Turner’s reputation as an offensive specialist, the Chargers have comprehensively failed to ignite that half of their game. Star RB LaDainian Tomlinson has struggled to get things going, and there are serious questions to be asked about QB Philip Rivers’ decision making. At this point it’s difficult to see San Diego being able to realistically aim for much more than trying to finish the season with a winning record. Especially now that they’ve marked themselves as the weak team in the division. Everyone will be gunning for them.

Posted in Ahman Green, Analysis, Andre Davis, Anthony McFarland, Baltimore Ravens, Ben Roethlisberger, Bob Sanders, Braylon Edwards, Brian Billick, Buffalo Bills, Cam Cameron, Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Damon Huard, Daunte Culpepper, David Garrard, Denver Broncos, Derek Anderson, Dick Jauron, Dwight Freeney, Ed Reed, Fred Taylor, Game, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jason Taylor, John Henderson, Kansas City Chiefs, Kellen Winslow, Kevin Everett, LaDainian Tomlinson, Laveranues Coles, Leon Washington, Marcus Stroud, Matt Schaub, Maurice Jones-Drew, Miami Dolphins, Mike Shanahan, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Norv Turner, Oakland Raiders, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Romeo Crennel, Rudi Johnson, San Diego Chargers, Steve McNair, Tennessee Titans, Thomas Jones, Tom Brady, Trent Green, Vince Young, Zach Thomas | No Comments »

The hot seat – it burns, burns, burns

October 3rd, 2007 6:35 am
by Big Dog

We said it last time, and now it’s more true than ever, Norv Turner has to be grimacing with his butt firmly planted on the hottest seat in the NFL right now. So far this season San Diego have failed to fire on offense, in spite of Turner’s reputation as an offensive specialist. The Chargers are now languishing at 4th in the AFC West and have already lost more games than they did last season. Following the high expectations set last season, if the Chargers don’t turn things around and soon, Norv’s seat is set to spontaneously combust.

While it might not look like it on the surface, Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb must be feeling things heat up a little bit too. So far the Eagles have played four games using the same basic plan with little adjustment for each opposing team. Of those four games the Eagles have won only one, and while that game was won in spectacular fashion, it wasn’t a division game. In fact Philadelphia are now locked in a desperate struggle to salvage their season given the fact that Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, Wade Phillips and the Dallas Cowboys seem to be pretty content just racking up one win after the next.

Over in San Francisco somebody should tell Mike Nolan that Russell Crowe has already proven that Armani suits don’t win championships (his team made the playoffs and lost in the first round). There’s plenty to be said for looking good while you win, but you need to be winning before you can start worrying about looking good.

Cam Cameron also has to be starting to feel the heat in his first season for the Dolphins. Even though nobody had huge expectations for Miami, they’ve managed to disappoint anyway. Miami fans have to be hoping that Cam’s track record with successful QBs soon bears fruit with Trent Green.

What do you think? Hit us up in the comments and tell us whose seat is heating up and why.

Posted in Andy Reid, Cam Cameron, Dallas Cowboys, Donovan McNabb, Game, Miami Dolphins, Mike Nolan, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, Norv Turner, Philadelphia Eagles, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Terrell Owens, Tony Romo, Trent Green, Wade Phillips | No Comments »

Week 2 Instant Analysis

September 16th, 2007 10:00 pm
by Pro Set

Dallas 37-20 Miami

The final score was not indicative of the real struggle that occurred in this game. Miami opened the game with a solid rushing attack. Clearly the aim was to set up deep passing plays. QB Trent Green slightly under-threw WR Marty Booker on the left sideline fly route and CB Anthony Henry, using inside trail technique, was able to pick off the under-throw because he was allowing for safety help over the top. After this incident the Dolphins switched the emphasis in their passing game.

Dallas built a 10-3 lead with long, sustained drives that brought about evident tiredness in the Miami pursuit. It became clear that when either defense did not force a 3 & out or produce a takeaway, it would be hard to sustain consistent pass pressure and pursuit.

The MIA FG drive in the final two mins of the first half was a vindication for the changing focus of the MIA passing attack. Knowing that DAL would respect Chambers and Booker by defending over the top, the Dolphins ran plenty of intermediate curls and come backs that enabled them to move the ball. With S Roy Williams often nosing around the line, where he is best (more on that later), DAL seemed to have a consistent three deep shell on first down, with S Ken Hamlin playing centerfield, forcing the DAL corners to surrender large first down cushions, hence the deep curls. This is where CB Terence Newman was sorely missed.

DAL 10-6 MIA (halftime)

With MIA taking a 13-10 lead off the opening drive of the 3rd quarter, by again utilizing first down passing, DAL looked in trouble. This trouble increased when DAL was forced to punt, trailling 13-10 still. I thought that the most important series of the game was the one that followed the DAL punt. The Cowboys gave up an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on the punt coverage (player not immediately returning inbounds after being forced out). Having given up two straight scoring drives, the Cowboys held the Dolphins to a 3 & out.

Credit to the FOX commentators (Kenny Albert and Daryl Johnston) for pre-emptively predicting peril for MIA when a penalty forced the Fish to re-punt the ball. From the moment that WR Patrick Crayton broke the first wave, the momentum swung.

DAL QB Tony Romo (14-29; 186yds; 2TD) took over the game completely. His pocket presence was outstanding. I said in the preview that Romo will get the ball off rather than take the sack, and on this drive we saw two consecutive examples. On 2nd & 8 from the MIA 14, Romo threw the ball off his back foot to Crayton, breaking towards the endzone on the reverse scramble drill, and drawing the pass interference penalty. Poor work from FOX here as Johnston failed to explain that, even though the penalized action was by MIA CB Travis Daniels in holding the jersey of Crayton, the fact that this occurrred after the pass was thrown caused the penalty to be assessed as pass interference. This is a significant benefit to the offense since PI gives a 1st down a the spot of the foul, whereas defensive holding is 5 yards from the previous spot and a 1st down. On the next play Romo was corralled and almost brought down by DT Vonnie Holliday on the play action fake, but threw the pass anyway just before his knees hit the ground. So always expect Romo to release the ball, but this will mean more fumbles and more deflected INT opportunities throughout the season. When it works, however, it looks talismanic.

With DAL having regained the lead (DAL 17-13 MIA) it was crucial for MIA to answer. With the DAL corners playing closer due the MIA intermediate passing attack as described above, the MIA offense sensibly looked for the quick separation patterns. The slant or skinny post is always the best, for it is hard for the CB, once the WR has inside position, to get between the receiver and the ball. So Trent Green attempted the skinny post to Chambers but he overthrew it and S Ken Hamlin, again coming over from deep centrefield, intercepted. DAL turned this takeaway into a FG that gave the Cowboys a touchdown lead.

With MIA on the ropes, Green needed to lead them on a solid drive. On the second play of the ensuing possession, a fumbled exchange from C to QB bled the belief from MIA. This was where the game was lost. MIA simply got too impatient and thought that they had cracked the DAL defence by their 1st down throwing.

DAL took the turnover in for for another FG, and again it was poor work by FOX that no-one mentioned that the ball went through off the upright. In the NFL, when the kickers usually kick from straight in front, it is very rare for a ball to strike the upright and go through. If you don’t believe me, ask Ryan Longwell, whose final seconds game winning FG attempt hit the upright and missed at DET today. The key to DAL getting in range on this drive was the use of WR Terrell Owens on a crossing route on 3rd & 7 that picked up 12 yards. In my opinion, Owens is best when he can get moving, take a relatively easy catch (he dropped several passes earlier in the game), and maximise the run after catch yardage.

The 10 point lead was never seriously threatened, and the Cowboys improved to 2-0, whilst the Dolphins remained winless.

DAL 37-20 MIA (final)

Overall, I though that Romo was superb, and although I fear that he will have multiple turnover games not infrequently, he showed today that when he’s on, it translates into wins. Don’t be seduced by the big rushing number of DAL, a lot of it was garbage time all or nothing plays (where the first line of defense is the only line). DAL would be well advised to note the ease with which MIA moved the ball and the fact that the edge pass rush was very quiet.

Miami showed flashes of offensive life, but cannot rely on the pass to the extent that became evident today. Also obvious is that 5 turnovers (4 INT) will not bring many wins, despite what Detroit fans might think. New C Samson Satele looks strong and does have long hair, but his poor snap caused the 3rd quarter lost fumble on the exchange, and that C-QB relationship (the most important in football, since it happens every play) must develop quickly. I did not think that Tim Ruddy would get a mention, but the Dolphins could have used him today. The bright spot for MIA is that Chambers and Booker remain a potent combination, although I am sure that Trent Green misses the central Kansas City target of TE Tony Gonzalez, since MIA TE David Martin is not a major threat. MIA can recover more easily than any other 0-2 team, since both losses were inter-conference.

Posted in Anthony Henry, Chris Chambers, Daryl Johnston, David Martin, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Ken Hamlin, Kenny Albert, Marty Booker, Minnesota Vikings, NFL, NFL on FOX, NFL on television, Patrick Crayton, Roy Williams (DAL), Ryan Longwell, Samson Satele, Terence Newman, Terrell Owens, Tim Ruddy, Tony Gonzalez, Tony Romo, Travis Daniels, Trent Green, Vonnie Holliday, Week 2 Instant Analysis | No Comments »

Week 2 Featured Preview

September 15th, 2007 2:21 am
by Pro Set

Dallas @ Miami 4:05pm ET on FOX

DAL -3.5

MIA +3.5

This interconference imbroglio is a tough read. Dallas comes in with an offence that had its way last Sunday night. On the road, and without injured WR Terry Glenn, the Cowboys will need to run the ball well to win. The onus will be on the interior line of Dallas to handle DT Keith Traylor and DT Vonnie Holliday. This presents a big opportunity for G Leonard Davis to provide a dominant display of run-blocking. If it is a warm day, the ageing Dolphins can be worn down quickly by the tandem of RB Julius Jones and RB Marion Barber. Clearly Miami will want to make QB Tony Romo feel pressured to force the ball to WR Terrell Owens and TE Jason Witten. Last Sunday night Romo threw a crucial, but, ultimately, not fatal, INT late in the game that allowed the Giants to close in when he simply did not see a defender dropping into the hook route. So the Dolphins will be well advised to bring LB Zach Thomas and LB Joey Porter up to fake the blitz, and drop them underneath Witten. Remember that Romo won the starting job last season because QB Drew Bledsoe was pilloried for hanging onto the ball too long and taking sacks. Romo will tend to throw under pressure instead of eating it. So if the Dolphins can get pressure with just the front four (especially DE Jason Taylor) then they must be ready for turnover opportunities.

When Miami has the ball, expect Dallas to bring overload pressure on QB Trent Green. No one fears Trent Green on the scramble. Dallas S Roy Williams is at his best close to the line of scrimmage. The best way to avoid WR Chris Chambers putting on a display similar to the last meeting of these teams is pressure on the passer. Expect Dallas CB Terence Newman to try to play, but his injured foot might cost him a step in coverage. This will further compel Dallas to minimise coverage time by blitzing. This is where Dallas has an advantage because I can’t see the Miami backs effectively picking up DeMarcus Ware. This is important because Trent Green will often fumble when sacked. If I were MIA coach Cam Cameron I would be inserting lots of screens and lead draws into this week’s playbook to slow the blitz and to exploit the absence of NT Jason Ferguson by running up the middle on the 3-4 DAL defence.

The bottom line here is that if MIA cannot run the ball well, the fate of the game will rest on the pocket presence of Trent Green. I think that MIA will come with running formations and personnel, and will try to pass on 1^st down to avoid the blitz. For Dallas, this is a winnable game that will require a more disciplined approach than last week’s wild play. DAL will be hard to beat if they lead early. But DAL also has the weapons to overcome a deficit.

Prediction: DAL

Line: DAL

Posted in Cam Cameron, Chris Chambers, Dallas Cowboys, DeMarcus Ware, Drew Bledsoe, Jason Witten, Joey Porter, Julius Jones, Keith Traylor, Leonard Davis, Marion Barber, Miami Dolphins, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL on FOX, NFL on television, Roy Williams (DAL), Terence Newman, Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn, Tony Romo, Trent Green, Uncategorized, Vonnie Holliday, Zach Thomas | No Comments »