Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots – Week 4 Preview

October 4th, 2009 11:46 am
by Big Dog

In a week when it’s arguable that most games will have relatively foregone conclusions, the Baltimore and New England face-off is an opportunity for some interesting and potentially surprising gameplay.

New England Patriots

As long as Tom Brady can stay upright and throw a football, the Patriots are almost certainly going to be favourites heading into pretty much any game. But as the New York Jets and Rex Ryan proved a couple of weeks ago, the Patriots are very beatable. Especially if you can put Brady under pressure. This has been the key weakness in the Patriots offense for several years now and they’ve really only been getting away with it because of their enduring ability to come through with strong offense when they need it most. If the Patriots O-Line can buy Brady enough time to let his receivers get deep then you have expect that they will be able to outperform the Ravens secondary.

Baltimore Ravens

Given that Coach Ryan made his name at Baltimore, you can expect the Ravens to have learned a lot from what they saw the Jets do. That said, you can also bet that the Patriots learned a hell of a lot from that game as well. In fact, given the identical ahem, similar nature of the Jets and Ravens defense this season, it’s very possible that New York’s success will be to Baltimore’s disadvantage. If the Ravens can manage to get to Brady a few times, rush him and disrupt his rhythm, then the game will be theirs for the taking. If in the attempt they create space for Brady to throw into, then it will be their undoing.

Prediction

The smart money has to be with the Patriots at home against a defense they’ve already seen this season. But that’s why I don’t look after our Best Bets page, I’m not known for sticking with the smart money. I’m calling it for the Ravens 17 – 13.

Posted in Analysis, Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Game, NFL, NFL Betting, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, NFL schedule, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Tom Brady | No Comments »

New England Patriots @ New York Jets Preview

September 19th, 2009 1:03 pm
by Big Dog

Well it’s not really a surprise to anybody that the Patriots are coming off a win against Buffalo. What IS surprising, is how they very nearly didn’t. You can make all the excuses you like, but the simple truth is that the Patriots don’t have it together yet. Brady was very pressured by the Bills‘ pass rush, especially in the first half, and the characteristic Patriots cohesion just wasn’t on display.

At the same time the New York Jets just monstered Houston with the Texans’ only score the result of a combined INT and Fumble Recovery. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez is certainly stirring up the enthusiastic support of Jets fans and with good reason. So far he seems to be stepping up to playing at the elite level with a great deal of poise, maturity and mental presence – all of which he’ll need if he wants to win on Sunday.

New England Patriots

Brady and the Patriots offense put up good numbers last week, with 378 passing yards and 12 receptions each for Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Their running game was seriously hampered and had its lowest output in a while. This formula can’t hold up against the newly revitalised Baltimore Jets defense. Quite simply, the Patriots need to get more yardage on the ground and contain the brutal defensive onslaught the Jets unleashed on the Texans last week. If they can do that, then the Patriots will get the job done.

New York Jets

New head coach Rex Ryan is off to a strong start and has established a foundation for his right to the position on the basis of his defense’s miserly allowance of only 183 total yards against Houston. If his defense can bring that same intensity and success to this Sunday’s game, then they’re in with a chance. The New York Giants showed the way to beat the Patriots in Superbowl XLII, hit Brady hard and often (and pull off a miracle or two). Unsettle the passing game and disrupt the run. Make no mistake, Mark Sanchez is a very good rookie quarterback, but if the Jets are going to beat the Patriots, it will be the defense that wins the game.

Prediction

Any rational football fan has to take the Patriots here. Expect them to bring a journeyman, work-a-day approach to the game, looking to systematically pick the Jets apart. A cold, clinical and methodical approach.

But I’m not a rational fan when it comes to the Patriots. I can respect the team and their success (and I do), but I don’t like their flavour of kool-aid, so I’m not buying it. This might be a case of wishful thinking, but I’m going with the hubris of youth in Sanchez, the point to prove in Rex Ryan and the renewed passion of Jets fans, and most of all – the ferocity of their defense.

New York Jets 31 – 28

Posted in Analysis, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Game, Houston Texans, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, NFL schedule, NY Giants, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Randy Moss, Superbowl, Superbowl XLII, Tom Brady, Wes Welker | No Comments »

Buffalo @ New England MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PREVIEW

September 14th, 2009 10:06 am
by Pro Set

Clearly this game is all about the return of NE QB Tom Brady. No doubt the ESPN MNF crew led by Mike Choirboy Tirico will pay homage from intro to sign off. Watch for panegyrics regarding Brady’s great ‘work ethic’ in his recovery adn how he’s ‘just as hungry as ever.’

Anyway, the far more important issue is the NE defensive front. The Patriots have been suspect against straight ahead runners for some time. Bill Belichick trading DL Richard Seymour to Oakland is a gamble. In this game, BUF RB Marshawn Lynch will not play. If the Patriots control the Buffalo run, WR Terrell Owens will be blanketed on passing downs. New England should win comfortably, but those who are thoughtlessly proclaiming the 2009 Patriots as equal to 2007 Patriots are 16 games early.

Posted in Analysis, Bill Belichick, Buffalo Bills, ESPN, Game, Mike Tirico, Monday Night Football, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL on television, New England Patriots, Terrell Owens, Tom Brady | No Comments »

AFC 2009 Power Previews – AFC East

July 20th, 2009 6:27 am
by Big Dog

AFC East

The AFC East always offers up an excruciating mix of brilliance and boredom. The one-sided domination of the division by the Patriots was slightly diminished last season, but they really are the only consistent performer. There are several teams trying to build on last year but we remain to be convinced that it will actually work. Here’s the breakdown.

Buffalo Bills

Big Dog Barks: So the Bills have acquired WR Terrell Owens in the hope that this will make some kind of impact for their offense. There’s no questioning that Owens has the ability to make the plays happen – but you still need somebody who can put the ball in his general vicinity. Last season the Bills struggled at QB and it’s difficult to see Owens making that much of a difference. At the same time something’s got to happen for Buffalo, surely this is their year?

Foolhardy Guess –   9-7 with an unanticipated success running the ball.

ProSet Proclaims: Chris ‘Boomer’ Berman always says that ‘no one circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills.’ With four straight losing seasons and a decade long playoff absence, Dick Jauron needs a last stand. QB Trent Edwards is no longer a promising youngster. He either needs to secure wins or leave town. No doubt WR Terrell Owens will chime in with advice at some point. RB Marshawn Lynch needs to better the league average of 4.1 ypc. DT Marcus Stroud needs some help up front on defense. The Bills have a weak secondary, and their season pass defense numbers are always protected by the weather. By then the season is lost. The Bills are an average team again, and their deficiencies will be cruelly exposed on opening night at Foxboro.

Fearless Prediction: 7-9 again with Dick Jauron fired

Miami Dolphins

Big Dog Barks: The formula for the Dolphins this season is pretty straightforward. They need to do what they did last year, but more so. More Wildcat, more defensive aggression, more speed, more, more, more. The big question of course is if they can do that. If they can then look for Miami to dominate in a way that will still not live up to the heyday of Dan Marino.

Foolhardy Guess -   10-6 with the Wildcat being made extinct by mid-season

ProSet Proclaims: The early season demolition of New England gave credibility to Miami. The disappointing home playoff loss to Baltimore showed that there is plenty to do for Bill Parcells. The schedule is tough, with AFC South and NFC South crossovers, as well as playing all AFC 2008 division champions. QB Chad Pennington has proven himself unable to unshackle tight coverage defenses by throwing over the safeties. This is why the Dolphins are very dependent on gimmick running such as Wildcat. With no deep passing threat, teams will load up in the box and suffocate the fish. The defense looks light up front and old at linebacker. No doubt Parcells will look to change that before opening day.

Fearless Prediction: 7-9 with South Beach running Pennington out of town

New England Patriots

Big Dog Barks: The 2009 season for the Patriots can be summed up in one phrase – pocket protection. The Giants proved in Superbowl XLII that all you need to do to succeed against the Patriots is beat their offensive line and sack Brady. Even worse is that the league took notice and while it was disappointing that Brady suffered a season ending injury in the first game of last year, that doesn’t change the fact that he is a marked man on the field. If the Patriots can protect their QB and keep him safe then they should enjoy another ridiculously successful season.

Foolhardy Guess – 10-6 with Brady getting injured in the third game of the season

ProSet Proclaims: QB Tom Brady is the best NFL Quarterback that I have ever seen. If the Patriots maintain his health, they will make the playoffs. I think that Brady has a lot to prove: four seasons without a ring. Fortunately for him, the line is intact. Dan Koppen; Logan Mankins; Stephen Neal; Matt Light; and Nick Kaczur combine to form the best O-Line in football. This season the pressure will be on the New England run defense. The loss at home to Miami will have been endlessly studied throughout the AFC East and beyond. Expect teams to run early and often on the Patriots. If the Patriots give up less than 4 ypc, and turnovers are even, the contest is over.

Fearless Prediction: 13-3 and a Superbowl win

New York Jets

Big Dog Barks: If Rex Ryan can bring a Baltimore style defense to the Jets then he’s more than justified his selection. If in addition to that Mark Sanchez can make a good start, then the Jets are the team to watch in the AFC East. There are a lot of changes in the NYJ equation this year, but change with a purpose can be a good thing and Jets fans will be hoping that the 2009 season brings change that they can believe in.

Foolhardy Guess -   12-4 with Sanchez making league MVP in his debut season

ProSet Proclaims: I’ll come straight out and say that Rex Ryan will do no better than Marvin Lewis. Another trendy Ravens DC hired after a hot streak that was player driven. This was a bad hire by Woody Johnson; just as Todd Haley was a bad hire by Clark Hunt at Kansas City. The QB depth is horrifying. QB Mark Sanchez is overrated and lost a conference game every year in the pathetic Pac 10. RB Thomas Jones is past his best. There are no threatening receivers. If I played for the Jets defense, I’d make sure that I was doing my conditioning work, because they will get plenty of playing time.

Fearless Prediction: 5-11 with Ryan retained only for ownership to save face

Posted in Analysis, Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Buffalo Bills, Chad Pennington, Dick Jauron, Game, Kansas City Chiefs, Marcus Stroud, Marvin Lewis, Miami Dolphins, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NY Giants, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Terrell Owens, Tom Brady | No Comments »

Superbowl XLII – PREVIEW

February 3rd, 2008 5:35 am
by Pro Set

New York Giants vs New England Patriots – Superbowl XLII

Despite the substandard play of Tom Brady in the AFC Championship Game, the Patriots remain clear favourites. The key to the game, when New England has the ball, is whether New York changes its tactics from the Week 17 contest.

In Week 17, the Giants attacked the patriots, and put pressure on Brady. He looked a little unsettled, and generally the tactics of the Giants met with widespread approval. But the seminal moment of Week 17 was the Brady to Moss TD pass when Moss was left single-covered. The playoff opponents that have faced New England clearly determined not to get beaten deep. This policy looked futile as Brady picked Jacksonville apart in the AFC Divisional Playoff. But JAX stuck form to the game plan, and never let the Patriots strike quickly.

San Diego followed this lead, despite the fact that JAX could not force the turnovers. Luck, however, was with SD as Brady was 5% off his game, and with 7 or 8 men in coverage, SD had the men there to swallow three INTs.

So, does New York attack or play coverage? The excellent weather in Arizona tends to suggest that Brady will be comfortable picking apart deep zones. But I think that the Giants must rush four and trust them to deliver. The Patriots offensive line has to have an off day eventually. Since New York has no one who can cover Moss in single coverage, it would be a massive gamble to bring excess rushers on a consistent basis.

For the Giants offense, Eli Manning needs to have his hot streak continued. The accuracy on his throws, the lack of one bounce receptions, and the reliability of Plaxico Burress have to arrive in Arizona. It is obviously well known that Eli Manning has not fared well in his career against the blitz. New England will be tempted to bring relentless pressure. This will test Asante Samuel, who is surely the man to cover Plax when the blitz arrives. He cannot fare worse than Al Harris, who had a nationally televised disaster that will surely be the epitaph to an overrated career.

The Patriots will win, and this author congratulates New England in advance on a perfect season.

Posted in Analysis, Asante Samuel, Bill Belichick, Game, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NY Giants, New England Patriots, Plaxico Burress, Randy Moss, Superbowl, Superbowl XLII, Tom Brady, Tom Coughlin | No Comments »

Superbowl XLII – Pros and Cons

January 31st, 2008 11:11 pm
by Big Dog

The Superbowl’s always an exciting time of year. It’s the culmination of a long and hard season. It’s one of the greatest sporting spectacles on earth. And yet, if your team didn’t make it, the Superbowl presents a very real conundrum. Who do you cheer for?

This year your choice is between the New England Patriots and the New York Giants. Each of these teams present their own sets of pros and cons when you consider offering your support.

New England Patriots
Pros

Cons

New York Giants
Pros

Cons

Anyway, no matter who you decide to cheer for this weekend, enjoy the game, enjoy the spectacle and enjoy the football.

Posted in Bill Belichick, Eli Manning, Game, Laurence Maroney, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NY Giants, New England Patriots, Plaxico Burress, Randy Moss, Superbowl, Superbowl XLII, Tom Brady, Tom Coughlin | No Comments »

Week 13 Analysis: New England @ Baltimore

December 4th, 2007 1:25 am
by Big Dog

First things first, the Baltimore Ravens defense dominated much of this game. On offense, RB Willis McGahee earned his money and then some, as he carried major responsibility for a Ravens strategy that included keeping the New England Patriots offense of the field for as long as possible.

Baltimore led this game from the early stages and were managing to stay in front as the Patriots were at best only able to equalise. Each time they did that the Ravens came back to score with confidence and QB Kyle Boller did an excellent job of making some critical passes in the face of tough pressure from the Patriots pass rush.

The Ravens have been renowned for their defense for years and tonight that squad’s skill and experience showed as they limited the Patriots and managed to apply significant pressure to New EnglandQB Tom Brady, sacking him several times. Importantly, they were twice able to hold the Patriots to field goals and maintain a lead. In the end the Ravens defense still had to spend a lot of time on the field and the toll of their workload was showing in the latter stages of the fourth quarter.

New England’s final drive was what decided the game. The Patriots took possession with a little over three minutes left on the game clock and were moving downfield. The Ravens had held the Patriots to 4th and 1 on the Baltimore 30 with just under two minutes to go. The Ravens sideline called a timeout just before the ball was snapped and as the play was whistled off, the Ravens defense stopped the play for what would have been a turnover on downs if the timeout hadn’t been called.

After the reset, the Ravens again stopped the following play for a turnover on downs, but a flag on the play called a false start on the Patriots offense for 4th and 6. Brady scrambled for the 1st down on the following play.

That series of plays was decisive. After investing nearly 60 full minutes of emotional, mental and physical energy, the Ravens defense just imploded. The rest of the drive was dogged by penalty calls against the Ravens. Every time that the Ravens defense got the upper hand, there was another call that let the Patriots off the hook. The frustration was tangible.

The Patriots snatched the lead with a passing TD to TE Benjamin Watson, that will live in infamy for Baltimore fans as Watson held the ball in the fingertips of both hands for the completion. The play was reviewed by the booth and upheld, on replay it clearly was a caught pass.

Kyle Boller and the Ravens offense made a huge effort to race back down the field in the final minute and try to either get into field goal range to tie the game or make the long play for a TD and win. The final play of the game was an awe-inspiring 52 yard shot from Boller to WR Mark Clayton who was on the 2 yard line and unable to make it to the endzone.

In the end, Baltimore’s troubled season continued and the pressures within the team once again boiled over. On the other hand, the Patriots stayed cool and committed to the end, making the plays when the plays needed to be made. This is two weeks in a row that the Patriots have been tested and both times they have passed. The Patriots aren’t without their weaknesses, but nobody has yet been able to make New England’s weaknesses overcome their strengths.

Posted in Analysis, Baltimore Ravens, Benjamin Watson, Game, Kyle Boller, Mark Clayton, Monday Night Football, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL on television, New England Patriots, Tom Brady, Willis McGahee | No Comments »

Week 12 Analysis: Philadelphia @ New England

November 26th, 2007 1:24 am
by Big Dog

God bless Andy Reid and the Philadelphia Eagles. I’ve written previously about how watching the New England Patriots just dominate football is boring. This week the Eagles demonstrated that New England aren’t untouchable.

The Eagles came to play with a clear plan, and for the most part were able to execute it well even though QB Donovan McNabb was out with an ankle injury and backup QB A.J. Feeley(27-42, 345 yards, 3 TDs, 3 INTs) was managing the game. Feeley did a magnificent job and even though the Eagles didn’t come away with the win, due mainly to a pair of interceptions from Feeley, it’s important to remember that for most of the game Feeley had better stats than New England QB Tom Brady 34-54, 380 yards, TD).

For the Eagles’ offense it was clear from early in the game that New England weren’t going to give any room deep or on the outside. This opened up the inside pass every time. In fact, this was a feature topic of conversation for John Madden and Al Michaels mostly because it was absolutely true for the whole of the game. Even when Philadelphia took the lead and New England’s defense was clearly struggling to contain them, the inside pass was always there for Feeley. In addition, Eagles RB Brian Westbrook had his typically solid game, making good, strong runs and critical receptions.

On defense, the Eagles were able to contain Patriots WR Randy Moss(5 receptions for 43 yards) and basically eliminate his impact on the game. This did open the game up for WR Wes Welker who managed an impressive 13 receptions for 149 yards. In truth, if it hadn’t been for Welker’s speed and effective route running, New England wouldn’t have been in this game at all.

The most frustrating aspect of the game for the Eagles were Feeley’s interceptions. The first came on his second play of the game and was returned by CB Asante Samuel for a TD. The Eagles dealt with that setback promptly, with a fantastic drive for their own TD. The second interception came in the late stages of the fourth quarter, as Philadelphia was 3 points down and trying to score for the win. Feeley (against all the experience and success of the game to this point) attempted the long throw to the outside corner of the endzone and once again Samuel took the pick. In the resulting drive, New England ate a lot of the clock and forced Philadelphia to burn their final timeout.

The Eagles got the ball back with 20 seconds on the clock, needing to make about 40 yards to be within FG distance. Once again, Feeley went for the outside throw, clearly trying to preserve time and ignoring the old football adage “take what they give you”. This time Patriots’ S James Sanders came away with the ball and that was the game.

This was one of the genuinely exciting Patriots games of the season and among other things provided an excellent demonstration of why Andy Reid is considered to be one of the best coaches in the league today. The Eagles came so very close to a truly remarkable upset win today, and in so doing, they have provided a blueprint for taking on New England that is bound to haunt the Patriots through the rest of the season.

Posted in A.J. Feeley, Al Michaels, Analysis, Andy Reid, Asante Samuel, Brian Westbrook, Game, James Sanders, John Madden, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL on NBC, NFL on television, New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles, Randy Moss, Tom Brady, Wes Welker | No Comments »

NFL Week 11 Analysis: New England @ Buffalo

November 19th, 2007 12:36 am
by Big Dog

Look, the truth is that you’re not supposed to say things like this, but I’d be a liar if I didn’t tell you this now. Watching the New England Patriots march unchallenged through their season is boring. It’s just boring.

In case you don’t already know, here’s how most of every game goes: QB Tom Brady to WR Randy Moss, TD. Brady to Moss, TD. Brady to Moss, TD. Brady to Moss, TD.

Over and over again, it’s boring. It’s not that the Buffalo Bills are bad. It’s just that New England hasn’t met a team that’s really challenged them yet. This is scary for a number of reasons. The first of which is that it has everybody talking about a perfect season. The truth is, while that’s more possible from here than it was 11 weeks ago, it’s still a tall order. The next thing is that it’s building this mythology around the Patriots that’s almost as dangerous as their defense.

I think this is why Head Coach Bill Belichick and Brady bring such an obsessive nature to what they do. It’s clear that this attitude has influenced the whole team, which is after all exactly what a good coach should do. These guys are averaging over 40 points per game this season and aren’t looking like they’ll slow down and all they do when they get back to training is look at what they did wrong!

They’re as dominant defensively as they are offensively and the Patriots are committed to this idea of a season so good that it completely washes away that nasty aftertaste of the whole spying controversy. I don’t begrudge this team any of their success, it’s obvious that they’ve worked fanatically hard to achieve it. That said, the scariest question of all that is raised by their complete dominance at the moment is, what will happen when they finally meet a team that can really challenge them?

Sure, sure. You’re already thinking of the Dallas and Indianapolis games, but that’s not my point and it’s not what I asked. The team that’s going to challenge the Patriots this season is going to be the completely unexpected one. That’s the only way to do it. To suddenly be better, play better, do new, interesting and desperate things that nobody sane would try. You need to be a team like the Miami Dolphins with nothing to lose and everything to gain by trying the crazy stuff.

When the Patriots are beating everyone else by huge margins, nobody’s going to blame the Dolphins if they lose big but lose big by trying something different. If and when that finally happens, that’ll be a Patriots game worth watching because there’ll finally be some unpredictability and uncertainty in it.

Until then, Brady to Moss, TD. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Posted in Analysis, Bill Belichick, Buffalo Bills, Game, Miami Dolphins, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL on NBC, New England Patriots, Randy Moss, Tom Brady | No Comments »

NFL Week 6 Featured Preview: New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys

October 12th, 2007 8:46 pm
by Pro Set

New England (5-0) @ Dallas (5-0) 4:15pm ET on CBS

Two big name undefeated NFL teams dominate this Week 6 schedule.

New England

RB Laurence Maroney is out. RB Sammy Morris has run the ball well, but against Cincinnati and Cleveland. This will be tougher. New England did not run the ball well in their last two big losses: both playoff games. Just because they have the most amazing pass offense for now does not mean it will always be so.

When the ball is in the air, it’s simply a question of whether Dallas can get pressure. If Dallas can’t get to QB Tom Brady, it’s over. Brady is completing passes everywhere. Expect WR Randy Moss to have a monster game. He loves Texas Stadium. Just remember Thanksgiving Day 1999 if in doubt.

Dallas

The Cowboys need to run the ball well in order to maintain possession. They face a smilar challenge to that faced by most opponents of New England: they need to keep the ball for long periods. DAL RB Julius Jones has been solid without being spectacular. I would like to see him attack the line of scrimmage more and carry tacklers forward. It is these yards on early downs that bring up manageable 3^rd down situations.

In the air, we know that QB Tony Romo loves to get rid of the ball. He might be having second thoughts after the bizarre occurrences last Monday at Buffalo. Against the Patriots, if his first 2 reads are covered on short drops, he must be prepared to keep the ball. Romo must avoid turnovers, and therefore put all the pressure on the NE offense. It’s possible that Brady could have a bad day.

Conclusion

New England has more weapons than Dallas. If Dallas pulls off the upset, I think that WR Terrell Owens will have had a big day in yards after the catch.

Prediction: New England

Posted in Dallas Cowboys, Game, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, New England Patriots, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Tom Brady, Tony Romo | No Comments »