September 9th, 2007 2:56 am
by Pro Set
Philadelphia @ Green Bay (1pm ET on FOX)
PHI: -3.5
GB: +3.5
These two teams have been regular conference opponents. GB will be looking to utilise CB Al Harris and CB Charles Woodson to shut down the PHI passing game. This will allow the GB front seven to use safety help in preventing the Eagles from running the ball and clamping down on the notorious short passing game so loved by Eagles coach Andy Reid.
The key to the PHI passing game is whether Eagles QB Donovan McNabb can air it out early and open up some room underneath. I do not think that he needs to complete the deep passes, but a couple of early fades (even deliberate overthrows to eliminate INT risk) will put doubt in the Packers secondary. No DB likes to be burnt after being given plenty of warning.
On the ground, Eagles RB Brian Westbrook must avoid being overly ambitious and must hit the first hole with conviction. This will supply the better down and distance opportunities that allow options to the Eagles in play-calling. McNabb is the key to the third down conversions, and must be prepared to use his legs as soon as his first read is covered. Not only will this lessen the reliance on the questionable PHI receivers, but will also lessen the risk of turnovers.
For the GB offence, QB Brett Favre simply has to be patient. Against a traditionally aggressive PHI defence, opportunities will come to those who wait. This clearly demands that the GB pass protection must be consistent. Few passers are better than Favre at keeping his eyes downfield, but that leaves him open to a lot of hits simultaneous to throwing.
The Packers running game is an unknown commodity, with former RB Ahman Green now at Houston. Expect the Eagles to play slightly more conservatively than usual on defence, trusting the front seven, especially new addition LB Takeo Spikes, to cover the run. This will allow the Eagles safeties to double Packers WR Donald Driver whenever necessary.
Overall, if the Eagles commit zero turnovers and allow no special teams touchdowns, they should win, despite having a coach with a history of questionable clock management. The only chance that the Packers have is to combine a positive turnover margin with a 100+ passer rating on third down.
Prediction: PHI win
Line: PHI
Chicago @ San Diego (4:15pm ET on FOX)
CHI: +6.5
SD: -6.5
The equation for CHI on the road is pretty simple: stop Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson and have QB Rex Grossman put on a flawless exhibition of game management. When the Bears have the ball RB Cedric Benson will have to win the first down battle against Chargers NT Jamal Williams. This means that the key match-up in the entire game for mine is Williams versus Bears C Olin Kreutz. Unless the Bears can run the ball inside, Grossman will be facing consistently difficult down and distance equations. In this scenario Chargers LB Shawn Merriman is a huge threat as a one-man pass rush.
On the other hand, if Benson can get some momentum, Grossman can use WR Bernard Berrian on the deep play action pass. The speed of Berrian is something that should concern the Chargers.
For the SD offence, the temptation will be there to challenge the Bears defence. I think that over-aggression would be a mistake. Chargers QB Philip Rivers has no need to prove how good he is, at the risk of turning the ball over and allowing the Bears to play with a lead. It seems like Chargers WR Eric Parker will be absent so expect TE Anotonio Gates to receive the primary coverage from the Bears, most probably LB Brian Urlacher running with him, aided by a safety over the top.
I would like to see the Chargers concentrate on field position and let the inevitable Grossman mistakes give them control. Whilst this is hardly the game plan of a potential Super Bowl champion, the win is all that counts here. This is not college football, there are no style points or votes, and doing the simple things well under former coach Marty Schottenheimer did get the Chargers to 14-2 last season.
In summary, if SD commits no turnovers and if K Nate Kaeding is true from inside 50 yards, the Chargers will win. The Bears will need a breakout game from Grossman and a consistent push from the O-line.
Prediction: SD win
Line: SD
NY Giants @ Dallas (8:15pm ET on NBC)
NYG: +5.5
DAL: -5.5
Despite the fact that the Giants have performed quite well in Dallas in recent seasons, notably the excellent win there in 2005, the mystique of DAL QB Tony Romo sees many predicting a strong season from the Cowboys.
When the Giants have the ball, QB Eli Manning has to make the right read early and throw to advantage. His throws too often cause the receiver to lose momentum or dive and this shackles the ability to run after the catch, let alone the increase in drops. As a pocket passer, his mechanics will have to improve otherwise third down conversions are going to be tough.
The DAL defence should concentrate on preventing NYG from exploiting the DAL pass rush with screens and swing passes. Players such as LB DeMarcus Ware and SS Roy Williams (when blitzing) need to recognise quickly when the blitz is welcome. The key for this will be if Ware can recognise the cut block at left tackle and read the quick release. This is how a good pass rusher can intercept slant passes and disrupt screens.
For DAL, the Giants running game should not worry them unduly. This means that they can expect decent time of possession. Patience will be necessary and with WR Terry Glenn likely to be out, the issue will be keeping WR Terrell Owens happy when he is being double covered. This will be a big test for the game management skills of QB Tony Romo. He throws well, but he has to erase the memories of the disaster at Seattle in the NFC Wild Card playoff.
I think that he will continue his great start to the NFL and lead DAL to a crucial (but tight) divisional win. The pressure from the Cowboys defence will force Eli Manning into errors. The best chance for NYG is if Manning can complete deep passes to WR Burress and also complete play action passes to TE Shockey. This all depends on the NYG O-line dominating, and that, to me, is unlikely.
Prediction: DAL
Line: DAL
Posted in Analysis, Brett Favre, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Eli Manning, Eric Parker, Game, Green Bay Packers, NFL, NFL Game Previews, NFL on NBC, NFL on television, NY Giants, Olin Kreutz, Philadelphia Eagles, San Diego Chargers, Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn, Tony Romo | 1 Comment »