Week 12 Analysis: New York Jets @ Dallas

November 22nd, 2007 10:29 pm
by Big Dog

First of all, make sure you catch up with Pro Set’s analysis of Green Bay @ Detroit here. It provides great insight into not only what happened in the game today, but also gives you a glimpse of what Green Bay will need to accomplish next week against Dallas.

Which brings us to what Dallas did today. Nobody could reasonably claim to be completely surprised by the dominance of the Cowboys this week, even after the New York Jets managed a surprise victory over Pittsburgh last week.

However, the keen observer won’t be fooled by the blowout indicated by the final score. The truth is that while Dallas QB Tony Romo had a great night and led the Cowboys to a comprehensive win, this game was more about defense than offense. Simply put, both of the Jets’ lines, defensive and offensive, were dominated.

In particular, the inability of the Jets’ O-Line to contain the pass rush meant that Jets’ QB Kellen Clemens spent most of the night trying to get passes away under immense pressure. Pressure led by the ever capable Dallas LB DeMarcus Ware, who broke through on several occasions and disrupted a lot of New York’s passing game. In addition, Dallas’ coverage was just better and was summed up nicely when CB Terence Newman returned an interception 50 yards for a TD late in the 2nd Quarter.

To make matters worse, it’s tough for any team that has to try and contain Romo, WR Terrell Owens and TE Jason Witten. The Jets’ did their best with this task, trying to pay special attention to Owens and Witten in coverage, while applying pressure in the pass rush. They did actually manage to break through and sack Romo three times, but it just wasn’t enough.

It sounds simple, but it’s true, you just can’t win football games if you can’t control the line of scrimmage. The Jets couldn’t, and so they didn’t.

For those who are waiting with great anticipation for the clash between the Cowboys and Packers next week, there are some points to take out of this game. The first of these is that the Cowboys can be disrupted. Owens was much quieter today than usual and clearly the special attention paid to him had an effect. He still took several crucial catches, including a late TD pass, but his overall numbers were much lower.

Secondly, Romo can be disrupted with good pass rushing. The Jets managed to get to him several times and in the end forced the Cowboys to make use of RB Julius Jones and RB Marion Barber to great effect.

All of this gives Green Bay hope for their meeting next week. It won’t be easy by any stretch, but if they can contain Owens and Witten in coverage, their D-Line might be able to drive the pressure needed to get to Romo. If they are successful at that, they’ll then need to do a much better job of containing the Cowboys’ running backs than the Jets did. In the end, Green Bay need to keep their offense on the field as long as possible, the best way to keep Romo, Owens, Witten, Jones and Barber out of the game is simply to leave them on the sidelines.

Posted in Analysis, Dallas Cowboys, DeMarcus Ware, Game, Green Bay Packers, Jason Witten, Julius Jones, Kellen Clemens, Marion Barber, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL on television, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, Terence Newman, Terrell Owens, Tony Romo | No Comments »

NFL Week 3 Featured Preview: Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears

September 22nd, 2007 12:56 am
by Pro Set

Dallas (2-0) @ Chicago (1-1) 8:15pm ET on NBC

In a game with some hallmarks of the 2006 early season showdown when Seattle visited Chicago, the hottest team of the NFC, the Dallas Cowboys, comes to Soldier Field with a chance to improve to 3-0 and gain an important tiebreaker in the NFC.

Dallas has a balanced offense and a confident QB. All the confidence in the world, however, is useless unless the Cowboys can neutralize DT Tommie Harris. I wrote last week that G Leonard Davis needed to deliver, and the same holds true here. The whole DAL interior line must prevent the instantaneous penetration sought by the CHI defense. The quickness and anticipation that Harris brings is phenomenal. Obviously he plays the role that DT Warren Sapp played for Tampa Bay, where Lovie Smith used to coach. The disruption and closing speed that Harris displayed in Week 1 at San Diego reminded me of Sapp in his prime.

The Dallas running game will struggle if it is forced to try perimeter rushes. A genuine effort must be made to run at the heart of the CHI defense. DT Dusty Dvoracek is out for the season, although you would not know it from the official league depth chart) and DE Alex Brown will play on a bad ankle. DAL RB Julius Jones has played acceptably so far this season. I would like to see him attack the line of scrimmage more and carry tacklers forward. If he can’t get it done, the Cowboys must turn to RB Marion Barber. It is these yards on early downs that bring up 3rd & 5 or better and allow DAL to keep drives alive.

The DAL passing game will have to be sharp. Although ESPN breathlessly states that WR Terrell Owens is averaging 23 yards per reception, this ignores his recent tendency to drop passes. Look for DAL QB Tony Romo, who has been outstanding through 2 weeks, to focus on short drops. For DAL, quick hooks to TE Jason Witten and crossing routes and slants to Owens figure to be the best way to get safe production in the passing game. The strength of Romo is his ability to get rid of the ball. Against this turnover driven CHI defense, if his early reads are covered on short drops, he must be prepared to keep the ball. Romo has to avoid turnovers, and therefore put all the pressure on the CHI offense. Against CHI, to punt inside the 20 is to succeed.

When Chicago has the football, the Bears must protect it. Despite the fact that RB Cedric Benson rushed for over 100 yards last Sunday, CHI has not yet established a dominant ground game. This is their chance. DAL NT Jason Ferguson is out for the season and CHI will try to run the ball inside the tackles. Expect DAL to stack the box and use S Roy Williams as a virtual linebacker in order to force the Bears to throw the ball. Stuffing the run on first down will place huge pressure on QB Rex Grossman, who is under pressure from Bears fans.

Following the turnover-ridden defeat at San Diego, the Bears needed help from special teams to beat Kansas City. The Bears have produced only one 10+ play drive this season (15 plays; 79 yards; TD vs KC). In Week 1 against the Chargers, the Bears had one 8 play drive (27 yards), and a 6 play drive (35 yards).

With CHI unable to move the football with rhythm, expect the Bears to look for the big play early. DAL S Roy Williams struggles when the ball is in the air, allowing too many passes to get in behind him. WR Bernard Berrian is the big play threat, and look for Grossman to throw the deep sideline patterns where Berrian can take on CB Anthony Henry. CB Terence Newman is out again and the DAL secondary will be stretched. If the Cowboys try to prevent Berrian from getting deep, WR Muhsin Muhammed must keep the chains moving with safe hands.

If the Cowboys can contain CB Devin Hester on special teams, and avoid turnovers, the DAL defense can win this game for the Cowboys. The Bears will need Grossman to win over the home crowd and prevent the game from becoming a nationally televised meltdown. In an upset that could derail the Bears’ season, I like the Cowboys.

Prediction: DAL

Line: DAL

Posted in Anthony Henry, Bernard Berrian, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Devin Hester, Game, Jason Witten, Julius Jones, Leonard Davis, Lovie Smith, Muhsin Muhammed, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, Terence Newman, Terrell Owens, Tommie Harris, Tony Romo | No Comments »

Week 2 Instant Analysis

September 16th, 2007 10:00 pm
by Pro Set

Dallas 37-20 Miami

The final score was not indicative of the real struggle that occurred in this game. Miami opened the game with a solid rushing attack. Clearly the aim was to set up deep passing plays. QB Trent Green slightly under-threw WR Marty Booker on the left sideline fly route and CB Anthony Henry, using inside trail technique, was able to pick off the under-throw because he was allowing for safety help over the top. After this incident the Dolphins switched the emphasis in their passing game.

Dallas built a 10-3 lead with long, sustained drives that brought about evident tiredness in the Miami pursuit. It became clear that when either defense did not force a 3 & out or produce a takeaway, it would be hard to sustain consistent pass pressure and pursuit.

The MIA FG drive in the final two mins of the first half was a vindication for the changing focus of the MIA passing attack. Knowing that DAL would respect Chambers and Booker by defending over the top, the Dolphins ran plenty of intermediate curls and come backs that enabled them to move the ball. With S Roy Williams often nosing around the line, where he is best (more on that later), DAL seemed to have a consistent three deep shell on first down, with S Ken Hamlin playing centerfield, forcing the DAL corners to surrender large first down cushions, hence the deep curls. This is where CB Terence Newman was sorely missed.

DAL 10-6 MIA (halftime)

With MIA taking a 13-10 lead off the opening drive of the 3rd quarter, by again utilizing first down passing, DAL looked in trouble. This trouble increased when DAL was forced to punt, trailling 13-10 still. I thought that the most important series of the game was the one that followed the DAL punt. The Cowboys gave up an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on the punt coverage (player not immediately returning inbounds after being forced out). Having given up two straight scoring drives, the Cowboys held the Dolphins to a 3 & out.

Credit to the FOX commentators (Kenny Albert and Daryl Johnston) for pre-emptively predicting peril for MIA when a penalty forced the Fish to re-punt the ball. From the moment that WR Patrick Crayton broke the first wave, the momentum swung.

DAL QB Tony Romo (14-29; 186yds; 2TD) took over the game completely. His pocket presence was outstanding. I said in the preview that Romo will get the ball off rather than take the sack, and on this drive we saw two consecutive examples. On 2nd & 8 from the MIA 14, Romo threw the ball off his back foot to Crayton, breaking towards the endzone on the reverse scramble drill, and drawing the pass interference penalty. Poor work from FOX here as Johnston failed to explain that, even though the penalized action was by MIA CB Travis Daniels in holding the jersey of Crayton, the fact that this occurrred after the pass was thrown caused the penalty to be assessed as pass interference. This is a significant benefit to the offense since PI gives a 1st down a the spot of the foul, whereas defensive holding is 5 yards from the previous spot and a 1st down. On the next play Romo was corralled and almost brought down by DT Vonnie Holliday on the play action fake, but threw the pass anyway just before his knees hit the ground. So always expect Romo to release the ball, but this will mean more fumbles and more deflected INT opportunities throughout the season. When it works, however, it looks talismanic.

With DAL having regained the lead (DAL 17-13 MIA) it was crucial for MIA to answer. With the DAL corners playing closer due the MIA intermediate passing attack as described above, the MIA offense sensibly looked for the quick separation patterns. The slant or skinny post is always the best, for it is hard for the CB, once the WR has inside position, to get between the receiver and the ball. So Trent Green attempted the skinny post to Chambers but he overthrew it and S Ken Hamlin, again coming over from deep centrefield, intercepted. DAL turned this takeaway into a FG that gave the Cowboys a touchdown lead.

With MIA on the ropes, Green needed to lead them on a solid drive. On the second play of the ensuing possession, a fumbled exchange from C to QB bled the belief from MIA. This was where the game was lost. MIA simply got too impatient and thought that they had cracked the DAL defence by their 1st down throwing.

DAL took the turnover in for for another FG, and again it was poor work by FOX that no-one mentioned that the ball went through off the upright. In the NFL, when the kickers usually kick from straight in front, it is very rare for a ball to strike the upright and go through. If you don’t believe me, ask Ryan Longwell, whose final seconds game winning FG attempt hit the upright and missed at DET today. The key to DAL getting in range on this drive was the use of WR Terrell Owens on a crossing route on 3rd & 7 that picked up 12 yards. In my opinion, Owens is best when he can get moving, take a relatively easy catch (he dropped several passes earlier in the game), and maximise the run after catch yardage.

The 10 point lead was never seriously threatened, and the Cowboys improved to 2-0, whilst the Dolphins remained winless.

DAL 37-20 MIA (final)

Overall, I though that Romo was superb, and although I fear that he will have multiple turnover games not infrequently, he showed today that when he’s on, it translates into wins. Don’t be seduced by the big rushing number of DAL, a lot of it was garbage time all or nothing plays (where the first line of defense is the only line). DAL would be well advised to note the ease with which MIA moved the ball and the fact that the edge pass rush was very quiet.

Miami showed flashes of offensive life, but cannot rely on the pass to the extent that became evident today. Also obvious is that 5 turnovers (4 INT) will not bring many wins, despite what Detroit fans might think. New C Samson Satele looks strong and does have long hair, but his poor snap caused the 3rd quarter lost fumble on the exchange, and that C-QB relationship (the most important in football, since it happens every play) must develop quickly. I did not think that Tim Ruddy would get a mention, but the Dolphins could have used him today. The bright spot for MIA is that Chambers and Booker remain a potent combination, although I am sure that Trent Green misses the central Kansas City target of TE Tony Gonzalez, since MIA TE David Martin is not a major threat. MIA can recover more easily than any other 0-2 team, since both losses were inter-conference.

Posted in Anthony Henry, Chris Chambers, Daryl Johnston, David Martin, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Ken Hamlin, Kenny Albert, Marty Booker, Minnesota Vikings, NFL, NFL on FOX, NFL on television, Patrick Crayton, Roy Williams (DAL), Ryan Longwell, Samson Satele, Terence Newman, Terrell Owens, Tim Ruddy, Tony Gonzalez, Tony Romo, Travis Daniels, Trent Green, Vonnie Holliday, Week 2 Instant Analysis | No Comments »

Week 2 Featured Preview

September 15th, 2007 2:21 am
by Pro Set

Dallas @ Miami 4:05pm ET on FOX

DAL -3.5

MIA +3.5

This interconference imbroglio is a tough read. Dallas comes in with an offence that had its way last Sunday night. On the road, and without injured WR Terry Glenn, the Cowboys will need to run the ball well to win. The onus will be on the interior line of Dallas to handle DT Keith Traylor and DT Vonnie Holliday. This presents a big opportunity for G Leonard Davis to provide a dominant display of run-blocking. If it is a warm day, the ageing Dolphins can be worn down quickly by the tandem of RB Julius Jones and RB Marion Barber. Clearly Miami will want to make QB Tony Romo feel pressured to force the ball to WR Terrell Owens and TE Jason Witten. Last Sunday night Romo threw a crucial, but, ultimately, not fatal, INT late in the game that allowed the Giants to close in when he simply did not see a defender dropping into the hook route. So the Dolphins will be well advised to bring LB Zach Thomas and LB Joey Porter up to fake the blitz, and drop them underneath Witten. Remember that Romo won the starting job last season because QB Drew Bledsoe was pilloried for hanging onto the ball too long and taking sacks. Romo will tend to throw under pressure instead of eating it. So if the Dolphins can get pressure with just the front four (especially DE Jason Taylor) then they must be ready for turnover opportunities.

When Miami has the ball, expect Dallas to bring overload pressure on QB Trent Green. No one fears Trent Green on the scramble. Dallas S Roy Williams is at his best close to the line of scrimmage. The best way to avoid WR Chris Chambers putting on a display similar to the last meeting of these teams is pressure on the passer. Expect Dallas CB Terence Newman to try to play, but his injured foot might cost him a step in coverage. This will further compel Dallas to minimise coverage time by blitzing. This is where Dallas has an advantage because I can’t see the Miami backs effectively picking up DeMarcus Ware. This is important because Trent Green will often fumble when sacked. If I were MIA coach Cam Cameron I would be inserting lots of screens and lead draws into this week’s playbook to slow the blitz and to exploit the absence of NT Jason Ferguson by running up the middle on the 3-4 DAL defence.

The bottom line here is that if MIA cannot run the ball well, the fate of the game will rest on the pocket presence of Trent Green. I think that MIA will come with running formations and personnel, and will try to pass on 1st down to avoid the blitz. For Dallas, this is a winnable game that will require a more disciplined approach than last week’s wild play. DAL will be hard to beat if they lead early. But DAL also has the weapons to overcome a deficit.

Prediction: DAL

Line: DAL


Posted in Cam Cameron, Chris Chambers, Dallas Cowboys, DeMarcus Ware, Drew Bledsoe, Jason Witten, Joey Porter, Julius Jones, Keith Traylor, Leonard Davis, Marion Barber, Miami Dolphins, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL on FOX, NFL on television, Roy Williams (DAL), Terence Newman, Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn, Tony Romo, Trent Green, Uncategorized, Vonnie Holliday, Zach Thomas | No Comments »