AFC 2009 Power Previews – AFC South

July 5th, 2009 10:31 am
by Big Dog

AFC South

The AFC South is devoid of massive media markets, but the division deserves some attention. Tennessee, the surprise 2008 champion, faces a quarterback controversy. Indianapolis, Jacksonville, and Houston will all consider themselves to be playoff contenders.

Tennessee Titans

ProSet Proclaims: Jeff Fisher needs his interior defensive linemen to cover the departure of DT Albert Haynesworth in free agency to Washington. DE Jevon Kearse is over the hill. DE Kyle Van Den Bosch has a great motor, but is injury prone. LB Keith Bulluck is a 10 year veteran. If the Titans can’t stuff the middle, last season’s 13 wins will be impossible to replicate. On the other side of the ball, Kerry Collins and Vince Young will dominate the headlines. The miserable performance by Collins in the AFC Divisional Playoff loss means that goodwill is scarce in Nashville. Ten wins would be a very good effort from this staff.

Fearless Prediction: 9-7 with a QB controversy

Big Dog Barks: It’s clear that there are two big questions facing Tennessee this season. The first is how will their defense hold up with the absence of DT Albert Haynesworth. A lot has been made of the Titans’ running game last season and while the dual options afforded by RB Chris Johnson and RB LenDale White are an essential part of last season’s impressive 13-3 record, it’s foolish to ignore the contribution their defense made to that record. It’s simply a lot easier to win games if your opposition are not provided opportunities to score. Defense wins games, and this year Tennessee has a big question hanging over their defense. In particular the defensive line need to have a big start to the season. They need to make a statement in their first few games to remind every opposing team why they should be feared this year. If they can do that, then the second big question the team faces is a little less of a problem… who is their QB? This year will see more competition for attention as Collins and Young compete for starting rights. In reality this issue just won’t matter if the Titans’ defense can’t reproduce their dominance of last year.

Foolhardy Guess: 8-8 with a defensive meltdown

Indianapolis Colts

ProSet Proclaims: I’ve been down on the Colts since they blew my money on the 2008 SNF opener. Tony Dungy, despite being perceived as a defensive coach, has bequeathed poor run defenses even in eras of success. Despite the weekly panegyric to S Bob Sanders, the Colts seem to me to remain weak against the run. DT Raheem Brock is not going to collapse interior running lanes. To beat the Colts in the Manning era, the recipe is simple. Run the ball effectively on first down and shorten the game. Manning will force passes and turn it over. Tennessee has been doing this at least since the 1999 AFC Divisional Playoff. The cross over with the NFC West will provide more wins than tough divisional contests.

Fearless Prediction: 11-5 with a Week 17 loss costing a first round bye

Big Dog Barks: Even with the change in coaching staff, it’s unlikely that the Colts will bring anything particularly new to football this season. Unfortunately for them that probably means that they’ll also bring a season plagued by injuries with them this year. There’s little point in detailed analysis at this stage, if you’re a Colts fan, just stock lots of beer to drown your sorrows, buy stock in your local sports medicine clinic and prepare yourself for the inevitable rebuilding required over the next few years.

Foolhardy Guess: 9-7 with major injury problems all season long

Jacksonville Jaguars

ProSet Proclaims: The small market Jags need a bounce after last season’s 5-11 record. With several veterans departed, including RB Fred Taylor, Jacksonville is desperate to keep QB David Garrard healthy. The passer depth is pitiful. Shunned Rams legend WR Torry Holt will be useless without protection for Garrard. It was no surprise to see JAX select two offensive tackles in the first 40 overall picks. If early season losses arrive, it could be blackout central for the Jaguars market, despite the covered seats. Wayne Weaver will not appreciate the pessimism, but Jags fans, despite Weaver’s marketing efforts, know this will be a tough season. Jack Del Rio bet his career on Garrard. This season will be time enough to judge.

Fearless Prediction: 6-10 with a coaching change at season’s end

Big Dog Barks: WR Torry Holt joins the team as QB Garrard’s primary target and that should help things on the offensive side of the ball. Even so, it remains that the relatively young defensive team is really going to need to step up and get the job done when they’re on the field. The goal for the Jaguars this season needs to be to protect Garrard and Holt, keeping them out of situations in which they need to take major risks. If Garrard can get the protection he needs and the defense can produce some consistently good performances then the Jags might just wind up making some noise this season.

Foolhardy Guess: 7-9 but don’t worry – it’s unlikely anybody will be watching anyway

Houston Texans

ProSet Proclaims: Zero playoff games and a failed No 1 overall QB. It is a bit sad to think that the highlight of the seven seasons of Texans football was their opening game: a nationally televised win over Dallas. The franchise is best known for moments such as last season’s disastrous loss at home to Indianapolis. No 1 overall pick DE Mario Williams will need to pressure the passer, as the Houston secondary is weak. It goes without saying that QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson need to fire, although you could not pay me enough to be “protected” by the Houston offensive line. Gary Kubiak needs to make that work; otherwise he’ll be another footnote in Texans futility.

Fearless Prediction: 5-11 with Allen Stanford appointed to manage team finances

Big Dog Barks: Last season the Texans continued their lacklustre performance with a disappointing 8-8 record. However, it is important to remember that there were several disruptive factors in the early weeks of the 2008 season, in fact Houston had a great streak in the second half of the season and managed to claw their way back from an abysmal start. If they can improve their consistency on both sides of the ball, but especially become more productive on offense, then this could finally be their year. Most importantly for their offensive efforts is to understand the simple principle of converting yards gained into points won. It sounds simple, but pounding the ground close to the goal is going to need to be a major focus for this team. Victory is founded on this sort of simplicity.

Foolhardy Guess: 11-5 with a surprise draftee becoming an instant superstar

Posted in Analysis, Bob Sanders, David Garrard, Game, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kyle Van Den Bosch, LenDale White, Matt Schaub, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL schedule, Peyton Manning, Tennessee Titans, Vince Young | No Comments »

NFL Week 3 Instant Analysis: Tennessee Titans @ New Orleans Saints

September 26th, 2007 8:44 am
by Pro Set

Tennessee 31-14 New Orleans

Tennessee improved to 2-1 (2-0 on the road) with a great win at New Orleans (0-3). Let’s reflect on how the game was won. I’ll make sure that I don’t start my analysis with as bad a mistake as Mike (The Choirboy) Tirico. First New Orleans offensive play, Tirico calls a RB Reggie Bush carry as a “reverse”, when it was clear to any literate viewer that an end-around had occurred. Tirico is as tiresome as a teacher who preaches morals all day but is actually employed to educate you about the local Vice Squad.

When Tennessee had the ball, the running back combination of RB LenDale White and RB Chris Brown had seemingly poor numbers (combined 28 carries for 88 yards). What those numbers do not show is that there were hardly any rushes for negative yardage. Tennessee rushed 7 times for a first down. I wrote in the preview that Chris Brown had to be productive on early downs. He did just enough. This allowed QB Vince Young, 14-22 (164; 2 TD; INT) to be dynamic and unpredictable. The true effect of the TEN rush attack was seen in the final quarter when Vince Young (5 carries for 22 yards) rushed 10 yards for a first down on a simple bootleg. New Orleans feared the running backs and crashed down inside.

In the aerial game, Vince Young was solid but not spectacular. I think that the Titans will really miss WR Drew Bennett (now with St Louis). I also think that a mobile QB needs good TE play to block and then release. But I digress. What impressed me the most about Young was the variation in his throws. He hit the central deep in laser beam for the first TEN TD. He was also able to check the ball off without putting too much zip on the ball. The fact that he inspires belief and energy in the team is obvious. Expect Tennessee to have a winning record.

When New Orleans had the ball, the Tennessee front four was superb. It was really pleasing to see two guys in particular have great nights.

DT Albert Haynesworth first came to my attention when he gave away a critical fourth quarter penalty in a 2002 season divisional playoff vs Pittsburgh. That has been my defining recollection of him until tonight. He was a dominant inside force. Big enough to stop the run, but quick enough to put pressure on the pocket and prevent the passer from stepping into his throws.

DE Kyle Van Den Bosch first came to my attention in an old NFC East game at Philadelphia. He had a great motor and the ability to disrupt the pass play whilst being blocked past the QB. This requires great timing, strength and plain football instinct. Between them, Haynesworth and Van Den Bosch are anchoring a very handy TEN front four.

As for the Saints, Drew Brees went 29-45 (225; 0 TD; 4 INT). He was forcing passes all night. For mine, the worst INT was the first. I was disappointed that Ron Jaworski did not demand that more attention be paid to that throw. We saw a great shot from behind Brees that demonstrated that TEN had coverage all around the intended receiver. I wrote in the preview that Brees had to dominate. He tried and failed, which is a real concern. When he did his trademarked look off (3^rd & 5 in TEN territory with 1:55 left in the first half) Van Den Bosch disrupted the play before Brees could attack the middle as intended.

On the ground, the Saints were tepid. The injury to RB Deuce McAllister affected the variety of their running game. The Saints are clearly reticent to slam RB Reggie Bush between the tackles. And to be fair TEN dominated inside. But it does mean that Brees feels pressured to manufacture pass plays that are low percentage. For me, the Saints have to get back to basics. I would like to see them simply set themselves a goal next week of zero turnovers. The Saints are worrying about results, not processes. Look after the ball, hit the first gap, catch the pass, and the first downs, and, hence, scoring opportunities will look after themselves. I’m sure the Saints defense would support this.

Posted in Albert Haynesworth, Analysis, Chris Brown, Drew Brees, Game, Kyle Van Den Bosch, LenDale White, Mike Tirico, Monday Night Football, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, New Orleans Saints, Reggie Bush, Ron Jaworski, Tennessee Titans, Vince Young, Week 3 Instant Analysis | No Comments »