Week 14 Analysis: Dallas @ Detroit

December 10th, 2007 6:54 am
by Big Dog

With most pundits declaring that the Detroit Lions are pretty much done for the season it looked today like QB Jon Kitna and the rest of the Lions may have had the fire to pull off an amazing upset win against the second best team in the NFL right now, the Dallas Cowboys.

The Lions took the early lead and stayed there for much of the game. Kitna managed to put up good numbers (22 of 36 for 248 yards) with no interceptions. The telling statistic was that he also had no passing touchdowns. The Lions also managed to gain 152 rushing yards against a Cowboys defense that is very tough on the run. In the end though, there were two drives that defined the outcome of the game. Early in the 4th quarter, the Lions had the chance to stretch the lead to more than a TD, with a 35 yard field goal attempt. Detroit K Jason Hanson would normally find this well within his range but this time the kick sailed just wide, to the right of the uprights. This missed attempt is sure to be haunting the Lions staff, players and fans.

The second key drive began when Dallas gained possession at their own 17 yard line with 2 minutes 15 seconds left on the clock and no timeouts remaining. Dallas QB Tony Romo led the march down the field, connecting regularly with TE Jason Witten (as he had all game). Detroit’s great sin was that they constantly allowed Cowboys receivers to find the sideline and stop the clock. In the end Romo connected with Witten for a 16 yard TD pass. The point after was successful and that sealed the win. This is the Cowboys’ ninth win from behind this season.

In many ways, it’s that statistic that makes the Cowboys’ record even more impressive than the Patriots. The Patriots are easily dominating almost every team that they meet and have only really been put to the test twice this season. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are having to work harder to get their wins, and the toughness that is bred by that sort of competition will serve them well when it comes to the playoffs.

Posted in Detroit Lions, New England Patriots, Jon Kitna, Jason Witten, Jason Hanson, Dallas Cowboys, Tony Romo, Game, Analysis, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL | No Comments »

Week 12 Analysis: Green Bay @ Detroit

November 22nd, 2007 9:53 pm
by Pro Set

After the early success of Detroit on the ground, hopes were raised at Ford Field. Detroit RB Kevin Jones has proven in the past that he is a capable featured back. One could sense the crowd anticipating another miserable NFC domed outing for Green Bay QB Brett Favre.

As the half wore on, however, the shape of the game irreversibly unfolded. Detroit cannot generate enough pressure from its front four to hide its miserable secondary. Losing CB Dre Bly to Denver has weakened an already patchy secondary. DT Shaun Rogers gets all the face time, but too often he lumbers off the field after second down because he is tired from providing the inside run defense as well as the pass rush. With Green Bay passing so much (4 rushes: 31 passes mid third quarter) it was incumbent on Rogers and the DET line to exert pressure. This is meant to be the strong suit of DET coach Rod Marinelli.

The second half was an exhibition. Favre looked completely comfortable. He completed 20 passes straight. He completed every pass that he threw in the third quarter. His first incompletion for the half was when WR Greg Jones could not get a second foot down in the left edge of the DET end-zone. Inevitably, DET eventually blitzed. And the Packers were ready for it. They had the screen pass ready to go and only an ankle grab prevented a huge catch and run. This play call, which had perfectly anticipated the blitz, demonstrated the superiority of the Packers at all levels of this fixture. The fact that DET did not blitz more was ample proof of the lack of confidence that DET has in its secondary to cover man-to-man. The contrast with CB Charles Woodson and CB AL Harris of the Packers was very pronounced.

For Detroit, the late comeback of sorts was rendered pointless when GB escaped a 1^st and 20 without even facing a third down inside the final minutes, with DET within 8 points. The inability of the DET front seven to close running lanes between the tackles denied them any chance of a late tying drive. Indeed, the TD reception from WR Roy Williams that closed the gap was notable for the fact that he never actually grounded his second foot. He rolled off a Packer over the end-line, but the Back Judge was so focussed on whether he maintained possession that the score was given.

Clearly GB looks good. The late rushing bonanza was distorting of the influence that the GB passing attack had on the game. GB travels to Irving, TX, next Thursday night in the NFC game of the season. Please don’t give credit to NFL Network for “selecting” this game. They just got lucky, since the NFL policy is to give teams a week’s rest where possible. So the next Thursday night game was always going to be between two of the teams that played on Thanksgiving.

For Detroit, the two huge home losses of the past five days will crush their season. QB Jon Kitna played well, but, as I have mentioned earlier this season, he needs to shake the ghosts of 1999 where a great start capitulated and Seattle missed the first round bye and lost a home Wild Card playoff. I watched him closely today. He is a man whose confidence is not where it should be. DE Aaron Kampman could tell you more. He was next to Kitna for most of the DET possessions. In a team that has invested so heavily in receivers, Kitna needs to take three steps and release. In his defense, until the Martz retreads of WR Sean McDonald and WR Mike Furrey stop dropping passes, Detroit cannot win against a quality opponent.

Posted in NFL Coaches, Detroit Lions, Jon Kitna, Rod Marinelli, Green Bay Packers, Brett Favre, Game, Analysis, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL | No Comments »

Week 2 Early Notes

September 13th, 2007 10:03 am
by Pro Set

Opening week saw some impressive performances from units of teams, but very few impressive performances from teams as a whole. For regular NFL watchers, by the end of a season you have a fairly good view of what each unit of each team will offer: a statistically valid sample, if you like.

Dangerous as it is from one week, let’s examine some improved units from last season and what they face in Week 2 as they try to prove themselves to be the real deal.

AFC Offense

New England: it might seem ridiculous to focus on the Pats, but the line seems stronger up the middle (remember they could not ground out second half drives in last season’s AFC title game), WR Randy Moss adds a fearsome threat when combined with QB Tom Brady, and RB Laurence Maroney should improve further. I think that San Diego, who visit the Patriots this Sunday (night), has a suspect secondary which they try to hide by over-emphasising the blitz. So the test for New England is simple: protect Brady from the middle push (especially NT Jamal Williams on early downs), as well as protecting him from the edge rush of LB Shawne Merriman and LB Shaun Phillips (especially on 3rd down), and the SD secondary will be truly stretched.

NFC Offense

Detroit: With the addition of Georgia Tech alumnus WR Calvin Johnson, the Lions have a fearsome passing attack. WR Roy Williams seems to be on the path to join the NFL elite. Lions QB Jon Kitna has made a habit of starting seasons well, but fading late (especially Seattle 1999). For the Lions to prove themselves to be the real deal they need to win this home divisional game (vs MIN) this Sunday. Road wins against AFC teams sound impressive, but in reality are never as valuable as a home win in the division. The Vikings defense will be better than the ageing Raiders unit, which last season ranked well due to the fact that other teams took no risks against the Raiders’ defense because there was no need.

Posted in Detroit Lions, Oakland Raiders, Jamal Williams, Jon Kitna, Randy Moss, Tom Brady, Game, Analysis, San Diego Chargers, New England Patriots, NFL | No Comments »