Week 14 Analysis: Dallas @ Detroit

December 10th, 2007 6:54 am
by Big Dog

With most pundits declaring that the Detroit Lions are pretty much done for the season it looked today like QB Jon Kitna and the rest of the Lions may have had the fire to pull off an amazing upset win against the second best team in the NFL right now, the Dallas Cowboys.

The Lions took the early lead and stayed there for much of the game. Kitna managed to put up good numbers (22 of 36 for 248 yards) with no interceptions. The telling statistic was that he also had no passing touchdowns. The Lions also managed to gain 152 rushing yards against a Cowboys defense that is very tough on the run. In the end though, there were two drives that defined the outcome of the game. Early in the 4th quarter, the Lions had the chance to stretch the lead to more than a TD, with a 35 yard field goal attempt. Detroit K Jason Hanson would normally find this well within his range but this time the kick sailed just wide, to the right of the uprights. This missed attempt is sure to be haunting the Lions staff, players and fans.

The second key drive began when Dallas gained possession at their own 17 yard line with 2 minutes 15 seconds left on the clock and no timeouts remaining. Dallas QB Tony Romo led the march down the field, connecting regularly with TE Jason Witten (as he had all game). Detroit’s great sin was that they constantly allowed Cowboys receivers to find the sideline and stop the clock. In the end Romo connected with Witten for a 16 yard TD pass. The point after was successful and that sealed the win. This is the Cowboys’ ninth win from behind this season.

In many ways, it’s that statistic that makes the Cowboys’ record even more impressive than the Patriots. The Patriots are easily dominating almost every team that they meet and have only really been put to the test twice this season. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are having to work harder to get their wins, and the toughness that is bred by that sort of competition will serve them well when it comes to the playoffs.

Posted in Detroit Lions, New England Patriots, Jon Kitna, Jason Witten, Jason Hanson, Dallas Cowboys, Tony Romo, Game, Analysis, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL | No Comments »

Week 12 Analysis: New York Jets @ Dallas

November 22nd, 2007 10:29 pm
by Big Dog

First of all, make sure you catch up with Pro Set’s analysis of Green Bay @ Detroit here. It provides great insight into not only what happened in the game today, but also gives you a glimpse of what Green Bay will need to accomplish next week against Dallas.

Which brings us to what Dallas did today. Nobody could reasonably claim to be completely surprised by the dominance of the Cowboys this week, even after the New York Jets managed a surprise victory over Pittsburgh last week.

However, the keen observer won’t be fooled by the blowout indicated by the final score. The truth is that while Dallas QB Tony Romo had a great night and led the Cowboys to a comprehensive win, this game was more about defense than offense. Simply put, both of the Jets’ lines, defensive and offensive, were dominated.

In particular, the inability of the Jets’ O-Line to contain the pass rush meant that Jets’ QB Kellen Clemens spent most of the night trying to get passes away under immense pressure. Pressure led by the ever capable Dallas LB DeMarcus Ware, who broke through on several occasions and disrupted a lot of New York’s passing game. In addition, Dallas’ coverage was just better and was summed up nicely when CB Terence Newman returned an interception 50 yards for a TD late in the 2nd Quarter.

To make matters worse, it’s tough for any team that has to try and contain Romo, WR Terrell Owens and TE Jason Witten. The Jets’ did their best with this task, trying to pay special attention to Owens and Witten in coverage, while applying pressure in the pass rush. They did actually manage to break through and sack Romo three times, but it just wasn’t enough.

It sounds simple, but it’s true, you just can’t win football games if you can’t control the line of scrimmage. The Jets couldn’t, and so they didn’t.

For those who are waiting with great anticipation for the clash between the Cowboys and Packers next week, there are some points to take out of this game. The first of these is that the Cowboys can be disrupted. Owens was much quieter today than usual and clearly the special attention paid to him had an effect. He still took several crucial catches, including a late TD pass, but his overall numbers were much lower.

Secondly, Romo can be disrupted with good pass rushing. The Jets managed to get to him several times and in the end forced the Cowboys to make use of RB Julius Jones and RB Marion Barber to great effect.

All of this gives Green Bay hope for their meeting next week. It won’t be easy by any stretch, but if they can contain Owens and Witten in coverage, their D-Line might be able to drive the pressure needed to get to Romo. If they are successful at that, they’ll then need to do a much better job of containing the Cowboys’ running backs than the Jets did. In the end, Green Bay need to keep their offense on the field as long as possible, the best way to keep Romo, Owens, Witten, Jones and Barber out of the game is simply to leave them on the sidelines.

Posted in Jason Witten, Marion Barber, Julius Jones, Terence Newman, DeMarcus Ware, Kellen Clemens, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, NFL on television, Analysis, Game, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, Terrell Owens, Tony Romo, NFL | No Comments »

NFL Week 3 Instant Analysis Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears

September 24th, 2007 5:34 am
by Pro Set

Dallas 34-10 Chicago

This game was not even close. Let’s look at how the Cowboys got the job done on both sides of the ball.

First, the Dallas O-Line did a great job in pass protection. Even though DAL gave up some holding penalties, the pocket that was created for QB Tony Romo was outstanding. The only way that Chicago could get pressure was by blitzing 2 linebackers straight up the middle. The stats show that MLB Brian Urlacher recorded 2 sacks, but many other times he and his mates were stoned by superior blocking. DT Tommie Harris did not look like a member of the opposing backfield, which is always the first step to victory.

Second, Tony Romo had a sensational night. I wrote in the preview that Romo was confident, and did he deliver or what. His effort was reminiscent of elite performances by top class passers against highly-rated defenses: such as this (BAL @ GB [2001]). Romo went 22-35 (329; 2 TD; INT) and those stats are a travesty. The INT was completely the fault of WR Patrick Crayton, who did not close his hands on a perfectly thrown ball in the first quarter. Romo was also denied a TD pass by Crayton, who dropped an even easier catch wide open on a stop route in the end zone in the 2^nd quarter. With the ensuing FG blocked, DAL had nothing to show for a truly outstanding drive.

Third, the Cowboys were unbelievable on 3^rd and long. My notes are covered with references to 3^rd & 15 and worse. At one point in the first quarter DAL rushed for 7 yards on 1st & 10 only to have consecutive false start penalties and a rush for -2 yards bring up 3^rd & 15 and the Romo pass was intercepted, as described above. WR Terrell Owens recovered from a couple of early drops to dominate the area between the hash marks and make great currency from crossing routes. Makes sure you catch the block laid by WR Sam Hurd on CHI S Adam Archuleta to spring Owens for a big gain on 3^rd & 11 from the DAL 8 with 5:59 left in the 3^rd quarter. Not to be too harsh, but Archuleta is a long-term liability wherever he plays. He can’t run, he can’t cover, and he lives off the one highlight play per season. He’s a poor player who is out of his depth against any decent passing team.

With Chicago struggling on offense, DAL knew that 24 points would give them a shot. And it was all about Romo. His passes were accurate. He got rid of the ball under pressure and kept his eyes up field. The consistent conversion of terrible down and distance scenarios was remarkable. This cannot happen every week, so DAL will have to cut down on penalties.

The Bears played just as I expected. They really tried to leverage the speed of WR Bernard Berrian. As DAL played off Berrian early, QB Rex Grossman, 15-32 (195; 0 TD; 3 INT) made good use of the hooks and curls to move the chains. As DAL then pressed Berrian, Grossman started working the slant. This brought up a major moment in the match. With the game tied at 3-3, and having just hit Berrian for a 1^st down, CHI enjoyed 1^st & 10 (at DAL 34) with 1:24 remaining in the first half. Berrian ran the slant and go, and DAL CB Anthony Henry took the bait. Grossman made the perfect throw, but Berrian dropped it cold.

Chicago got nothing from that drive and proceeded to offer little resistance in the second half. The defense got greedy, trying to strip the ball and make the big play instead of tackling. The Bears defense reminded me of Tampa Bay in the 2000 season. The defense knows that it is a dominant unit, but tries too hard sometimes to make up for the offensive ineptitude. This means that the fundamentally sound gap discipline and tackling form that makes a unit dominant is lost.

Despite an INT, a blocked FG return past midfield, and forcing endless 3^rd & long situations, the Bears defence gave up and the frustration was palpable. It’s hard not to be sympathetic. Grossman made some awful throws, but the key one was when the Bears took over at their own 13 following a DAL FG that made it DAL 20-10 CHI. A slow, high throw to what looked like an out route was picked off by CB Anthony Henry and returned for the TD.

Overall, the Bears have real issues on offense. The players have clearly lost belief in Grossman at QB and that is critical. Defenders need to play with belief and emotion. At present that emotion is centered on joining the home crowd in jeering Grossman. As for DAL, they are smoking. I still have concerns about the DAL run defense but few opponents will have the luxury of pounding away at the DAL front seven if Romo puts 30+ points on the board.

Posted in Bernard Berrian, Tommie Harris, Week 3 Instant Analysis, Brian Urlacher, Adam Archuleta, Rex Grossman, Anthony Henry, Jason Witten, Analysis, Game, NFL Franchises/Teams, Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bears, NFL | No Comments »

NFL Week 3 Featured Preview: Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears

September 22nd, 2007 12:56 am
by Pro Set

Dallas (2-0) @ Chicago (1-1) 8:15pm ET on NBC

In a game with some hallmarks of the 2006 early season showdown when Seattle visited Chicago, the hottest team of the NFC, the Dallas Cowboys, comes to Soldier Field with a chance to improve to 3-0 and gain an important tiebreaker in the NFC.

Dallas has a balanced offense and a confident QB. All the confidence in the world, however, is useless unless the Cowboys can neutralize DT Tommie Harris. I wrote last week that G Leonard Davis needed to deliver, and the same holds true here. The whole DAL interior line must prevent the instantaneous penetration sought by the CHI defense. The quickness and anticipation that Harris brings is phenomenal. Obviously he plays the role that DT Warren Sapp played for Tampa Bay, where Lovie Smith used to coach. The disruption and closing speed that Harris displayed in Week 1 at San Diego reminded me of Sapp in his prime.

The Dallas running game will struggle if it is forced to try perimeter rushes. A genuine effort must be made to run at the heart of the CHI defense. DT Dusty Dvoracek is out for the season, although you would not know it from the official league depth chart) and DE Alex Brown will play on a bad ankle. DAL RB Julius Jones has played acceptably so far this season. I would like to see him attack the line of scrimmage more and carry tacklers forward. If he can’t get it done, the Cowboys must turn to RB Marion Barber. It is these yards on early downs that bring up 3^rd & 5 or better and allow DAL to keep drives alive.

The DAL passing game will have to be sharp. Although ESPN breathlessly states that WR Terrell Owens is averaging 23 yards per reception, this ignores his recent tendency to drop passes. Look for DAL QB Tony Romo, who has been outstanding through 2 weeks, to focus on short drops. For DAL, quick hooks to TE Jason Witten and crossing routes and slants to Owens figure to be the best way to get safe production in the passing game. The strength of Romo is his ability to get rid of the ball. Against this turnover driven CHI defense, if his early reads are covered on short drops, he must be prepared to keep the ball. Romo has to avoid turnovers, and therefore put all the pressure on the CHI offense. Against CHI, to punt inside the 20 is to succeed.

When Chicago has the football, the Bears must protect it. Despite the fact that RB Cedric Benson rushed for over 100 yards last Sunday, CHI has not yet established a dominant ground game. This is their chance. DAL NT Jason Ferguson is out for the season and CHI will try to run the ball inside the tackles. Expect DAL to stack the box and use S Roy Williams as a virtual linebacker in order to force the Bears to throw the ball. Stuffing the run on first down will place huge pressure on QB Rex Grossman, who is under pressure from Bears fans.

Following the turnover-ridden defeat at San Diego, the Bears needed help from special teams to beat Kansas City. The Bears have produced only one 10+ play drive this season (15 plays; 79 yards; TD vs KC). In Week 1 against the Chargers, the Bears had one 8 play drive (27 yards), and a 6 play drive (35 yards).

With CHI unable to move the football with rhythm, expect the Bears to look for the big play early. DAL S Roy Williams struggles when the ball is in the air, allowing too many passes to get in behind him. WR Bernard Berrian is the big play threat, and look for Grossman to throw the deep sideline patterns where Berrian can take on CB Anthony Henry. CB Terence Newman is out again and the DAL secondary will be stretched. If the Cowboys try to prevent Berrian from getting deep, WR Muhsin Muhammed must keep the chains moving with safe hands.

If the Cowboys can contain CB Devin Hester on special teams, and avoid turnovers, the DAL defense can win this game for the Cowboys. The Bears will need Grossman to win over the home crowd and prevent the game from becoming a nationally televised meltdown. In an upset that could derail the Bears’ season, I like the Cowboys.

Prediction: DAL

Line: DAL

Posted in Anthony Henry, NFL Game Previews, Terence Newman, Jason Witten, Lovie Smith, Tommie Harris, Devin Hester, Muhsin Muhammed, Bernard Berrian, Julius Jones, Leonard Davis, NFL Players, NFL Franchises/Teams, Game, Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, NFL Coaches, Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bears, NFL | No Comments »

Week 2 Featured Preview

September 15th, 2007 2:21 am
by Pro Set

Dallas @ Miami 4:05pm ET on FOX

DAL -3.5

MIA +3.5

This interconference imbroglio is a tough read. Dallas comes in with an offence that had its way last Sunday night. On the road, and without injured WR Terry Glenn, the Cowboys will need to run the ball well to win. The onus will be on the interior line of Dallas to handle DT Keith Traylor and DT Vonnie Holliday. This presents a big opportunity for G Leonard Davis to provide a dominant display of run-blocking. If it is a warm day, the ageing Dolphins can be worn down quickly by the tandem of RB Julius Jones and RB Marion Barber. Clearly Miami will want to make QB Tony Romo feel pressured to force the ball to WR Terrell Owens and TE Jason Witten. Last Sunday night Romo threw a crucial, but, ultimately, not fatal, INT late in the game that allowed the Giants to close in when he simply did not see a defender dropping into the hook route. So the Dolphins will be well advised to bring LB Zach Thomas and LB Joey Porter up to fake the blitz, and drop them underneath Witten. Remember that Romo won the starting job last season because QB Drew Bledsoe was pilloried for hanging onto the ball too long and taking sacks. Romo will tend to throw under pressure instead of eating it. So if the Dolphins can get pressure with just the front four (especially DE Jason Taylor) then they must be ready for turnover opportunities.

When Miami has the ball, expect Dallas to bring overload pressure on QB Trent Green. No one fears Trent Green on the scramble. Dallas S Roy Williams is at his best close to the line of scrimmage. The best way to avoid WR Chris Chambers putting on a display similar to the last meeting of these teams is pressure on the passer. Expect Dallas CB Terence Newman to try to play, but his injured foot might cost him a step in coverage. This will further compel Dallas to minimise coverage time by blitzing. This is where Dallas has an advantage because I can’t see the Miami backs effectively picking up DeMarcus Ware. This is important because Trent Green will often fumble when sacked. If I were MIA coach Cam Cameron I would be inserting lots of screens and lead draws into this week’s playbook to slow the blitz and to exploit the absence of NT Jason Ferguson by running up the middle on the 3-4 DAL defence.

The bottom line here is that if MIA cannot run the ball well, the fate of the game will rest on the pocket presence of Trent Green. I think that MIA will come with running formations and personnel, and will try to pass on 1^st down to avoid the blitz. For Dallas, this is a winnable game that will require a more disciplined approach than last week’s wild play. DAL will be hard to beat if they lead early. But DAL also has the weapons to overcome a deficit.

Prediction: DAL

Line: DAL

Posted in Drew Bledsoe, Trent Green, Joey Porter, Zach Thomas, Jason Witten, Roy Williams (DAL), Terence Newman, NFL on FOX, NFL Game Previews, Cam Cameron, DeMarcus Ware, Chris Chambers, Marion Barber, Julius Jones, NFL Franchises/Teams, Tony Romo, NFL on television, Miami Dolphins, NFL, Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn, Vonnie Holliday, Keith Traylor, Leonard Davis, NFL Coaches, Dallas Cowboys, Uncategorized | No Comments »