NY Giants @ Denver Thursday Night Football Preview

November 26th, 2009 8:16 am
by Pro Set

Denver is finally doing justice to my pessimism about Broncos football. As noted in last week’s Chargers at Broncos preview, Denver cannot run the ball. Early in the season Denver beat Dallas and New England at Mile High on big play catches from WR Brandon Marshall. The only thing he can hold onto now is RB Knowshon Moreno’s jersey as they fight over fumbles. The bizarre faux start of QB Kyle Orton last week intrigued me. The first thought that I had as Dan Fouts announced that Orton was ‘seriously’ warming up was: McDaniels did not want to register a loss with Orton as his starting QB. At season’s end McDaniels can say ‘we lost games when Orton was not starting due to injury.’ There’s no other explanation. By the way, Dick Enberg needs to retire right now. He obviously cannot see the field properly.

Thanksgiving note: Denver should be thankful that QB Jay Cutler is destroying the Bears, otherwise McDaniels would be under huge pressure right now.

New York played well last Sunday against a good Atlanta offense. The Giants have been hearing it over allowing the game into overtime, but the Falcons played very well in the final quarter. I’d be a much richer man had the Falcons won that toss in OT, as I had the Falcons on the money line. QB Eli Manning threw the ball superbly after the first quarter. But to win at Denver on short rest the Giants will need to run the ball and to throw play action passes. I would like to see some I-Form big (two TEs and two backs). Since Orton has to be expected to play, the Giants need to avoid the temptation to blitz. Orton will be very immobile. This means that seven man coverages (probably Cover 2 zone or Cover 2 man under) will force Orton to execute perfect throws off a bad plant foot. Blitzing allows more margin for error. QB mobility is actually more important against traditional coverage defense, since the QB needs to buy time for receivers to become open. If the Giants do not give up the big play, and keep it clean, the Giants should win.

Thanksgiving note: The last time the Giants visited Denver the world was very different. It was on Monday Night Football (10 September 2001) and the play of the game was an 85 yard punt by NYG P Rodney Williams. It was the first game at Invesco Field. I don’t know what’s planned for pregame tomorrow, but it would be nice to see the victims of 9/11 honoured by the NFL on a nationally televised game.

Posted in Analysis, Brian Dawkins, Denver Broncos, Eli Manning, Game, Jay Cutler, Josh McDaniels, Kyle Orton, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Thanksgiving Day Football, NFL on television, NY Giants, Tom Coughlin | No Comments »

NY Giants @ Dallas SNF Week 2 Preview

September 17th, 2009 5:26 am
by Pro Set

The Giants impressed many, especially FOX network executives, with their win over Washington. In the past, the Giants have played well at Texas Stadium. But of course Sunday night marks the first NFL match at the Jerry Jones theme park known as Cowboys Stadium. To state the obvious, the Giants must run the ball well inside. RB Brandon Jacobs needs to be productive on early downs. Bucs RB Carnell Williams ran over several Cowboys on Sunday. Similar hard running will allow QB Eli Manning to use play action. A poor running game, however, will see Cowboys star DeMarcus Ware at his pass rushing best.

The Cowboys were also impressive with a road win at Tampa Bay. Terrible coverage breakdowns by the Bucs gave easy scores to QB Tony Romo. For all the criticism he recieves, Romo is a good QB. And with serious inury concerns hanging over the entire NYG secondary, Romo and WR Roy Williams will be keen for more big plays. And therein lies they key for the Cowboys. Romo cannot force big plays. His job is to move the chains and exploit the right matchups at the right time: TE Jason Witten should expect a lot of work.

I expect this to be a very close game. NYG will struggle if they fall behind. The Cowboys will not fear the NYG receivers, so if Romo plays a clean game and the Cowboys hold Jacobs in check, the Cowboys should win.

Posted in Analysis, Dallas Cowboys, Eli Manning, Game, Jason Witten, Marion Barber, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL on FOX, NFL on NBC, NFL on television, NY Giants, Roy Williams (DAL), Tom Coughlin, Tony Romo, Wade Phillips | No Comments »

Superbowl XLII – Pros and Cons

January 31st, 2008 11:11 pm
by Big Dog

The Superbowl’s always an exciting time of year. It’s the culmination of a long and hard season. It’s one of the greatest sporting spectacles on earth. And yet, if your team didn’t make it, the Superbowl presents a very real conundrum. Who do you cheer for?

This year your choice is between the New England Patriots and the New York Giants. Each of these teams present their own sets of pros and cons when you consider offering your support.

New England Patriots
Pros

Cons

New York Giants
Pros

Cons

Anyway, no matter who you decide to cheer for this weekend, enjoy the game, enjoy the spectacle and enjoy the football.

Posted in Bill Belichick, Eli Manning, Game, Laurence Maroney, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NY Giants, New England Patriots, Plaxico Burress, Randy Moss, Superbowl, Superbowl XLII, Tom Brady, Tom Coughlin | No Comments »

Week 13 Analysis: NYG @ Chicago

December 2nd, 2007 9:08 pm
by Big Dog

There’s no pretty way to say this. The Ney York Giants and their battling QB Eli Manning got lucky today. In a game where Manning was continuing his recent and struggling form with two interceptions and a lost fumble, he managed an unexpected fourth quarter comeback that will finally give fans and media in New York something positive to talk about. The best feature of Manning’s game was that he didn’t allow the pressure to get to him. He stayed focused on his job and waited for things to start working. This is a character trait that I’ve long admired in Eli, he copes very well with the additional scrutiny and pressure that is applied to him as a result of his big brother’s stellar career. Eli plays his game and he clearly has the mental toughness to win.

The conditions at Chicago’s Soldier Field were troublesome for both teams. With heavy rain in the morning, and swirling winds throughout the game, it was a difficult game for anyone to get going in the air. Even so, Chicago QB Rex Grossman put in an excellent effort in difficult conditions to complete 25 of 46 passes for 296 yards and a TD. That completion number looks low, but Grossman was especially impressive with his clock management and decision making within the final two minutes of both halves. Good clock management was a real feature of his work and he certainly demonstrated that despite his difficulties earlier in the season, this young QB’s still plenty to offer the Bears. The only consistent flaw in his game today was that he kept getting sacked (6 sacks this game) for big losses by dropping back to allow plays to develop. He should have realised earlier that the best way to beat the Giants’ pass rush (which applied no real pressure on the inside) was to step up into the pocket and buy an extra couple of seconds that way. Doing so would also afforded him better vision of the field.

So, in a simple quarterback comparison, Chicago should have won. As we all know there’s a lot more to football than that. I still believe that there are serious questions to be asked, not just of Eli Manning, but the entire Giants offense and especially Head Coach Tom Coughlin. Manning and his key receivers (WR Plaxico Burress, TE Jeremy Shockey and WR Amani Toomer) have being playing together for several years now and it needs to be asked why these guys haven’t built a better playing relationship. To all appearances they get on very well together and when things work, they work really well, but by now I’d be expecting to see these guys have a better feel and knowledge of what each other is doing on the field. That said, it also needs to be asked of Coach Coughlin, when the QB of the team is struggling with an offense that runs a very vertical passing system, why aren’t there more options in the New York playbook? Where are the mid-range passing plays? Where are the options and adjustments in game?

It’s clear that there are fundamental problems with the Giants offense, but I am unconvinced that the problem is with the players. I have a feeling that it might just be that the team doesn’t know what to do with the players they have. Until the Giants resolve these issues, the best they can hope for is these unconvincing and somewhat fortunate victories.

Posted in Amani Toomer, Analysis, Chicago Bears, Eli Manning, Game, Jeremy Shockey, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL on FOX, NFL on television, NY Giants, Plaxico Burress, Rex Grossman, Tom Coughlin | No Comments »

NFL Week 4 Instant Analysis: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

September 30th, 2007 11:54 pm
by Pro Set

Philadelphia 3-16 NY Giants

It would be tempting to blame the injury problems of Philadelphia for the loss to NY Giants. RB Brian Westbrook was among those sorely missed. The truth is, however, that the Eagles were outplayed in a classic demonstration of why left tackles get paid so much money.

When Phildelphia had possession, I felt that they ran the ball well through RB Correll Buckhalter. I also felt that PHI followed up their rare first downs with too many subsequent 1^st & 10 pass plays. The NBC coverage foussed heavily on the battles between RT Jon Runyan and LE Michael Strahan, and, on the other end, LT Winston Justice and RE Osi Umenyiora. It is trite to say that the Giants dominated the edge rush and forced QB Donovan McNabb into rushing his passes.

What nobody seemed to address, however, was that McNabb was not stepping up into the pocket and keeping his eyes downfield. He was taking five step drops and then getting hit. After the sheer volume of sacks that the Eagles conceded, I wanted to see McNabb hit his final drop step and step up, allowing his tackles to concentrate on stopping the inside move. Did anyone hear the name of DT Fred Robbins get mentioned? That means that there was less inside pressure on McNabb, but I guess that they did not have time to pressure him before he was sacked by the edge rushers.

There really is no point writing more than this. Since PHI could not protect the passer, the Eagles could not throw the ball. This meant that it was imperative for the Eagles to get the lead. On this reasoning, the game was decided in two plays.

First, with NYG moving forward late in the second quarter, LB Omar Gaither picked off a QB Eli Manning pass. After carrying the ball back to midfield, he ran out of bounds. I could not believe that he did not try to run over Manning. This was a terrible decision. The momentum of the turnover disappeared in a symphony of penalties and negative plays. How many truly great NFL defenders would run out of bounds when faced with a QB guarding the yardage to the endzone: not many.

Second, the FR TD return by LB Kawika Mitchell deserves mention. I still don’t know how a skill position player like Correll Buckhalter could not cover up that fumble. This Giants TD, occurring late in the 3^rd quarter, drained the belief from the PHI players. If PHI had entered the final quarter, after conceding endless sacks and penalties, with only a ten point deficit, the NYG player might well have thought that the Eagles would prove impossible to extinguish: it’s happened before in this rivalry.

So, overall, the Eagles tried but failed in their (hopefully unintended) application of the Homer Simpson strategy. Stand up like a man, take as many punches as the other guy can possibly throw at you, and then push him over for the knock out victory. Having said that, Andy Reid had as many answers to the NYG pass rush as Moe Siszlak had to the power of Drederick Tatum. Was Andy Reid not once an NFL offensive lineman?

Finally, we only had to wait 90 seconds before John Madden mentioned exotic blitzes (see preview).

Posted in Analysis, Andy Reid, Brian Westbrook, Correll Buckhalter, Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning, Fred Robbins, John Madden, Jon Runyan, Kawika Mitchell, Michael Strahan, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL on NBC, NY Giants, Osi Umenyiora, Philadelphia Eagles, Shaun Andrews, Week 4 Instant Analysis | No Comments »

NFL Week 4 Featured Preview: Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants

September 28th, 2007 11:07 pm
by Pro Set

Philadelphia (1-2) @ NY Giants (1-2) Sun 8:15pm ET on NBC

It will be hard for the loser of this match to win the division. Philadelphia comes in off an amazing display of offensive power against a Detroit Lions secondary that had clearly been studying film of the 2000 St Louis Rams defense: maybe Mike Martz brought it with him. NY Giants hits the halfway point of its divisional schedule here and will need a win to keep pace with Dallas.

NY Giants

QB Eli Manning was well supported last week by a dependable second half running game. RB Derrick Ward carried the ball effectively and exceeded expectations. The Giants cannot afford to spot the Eagles a 14-point lead like they did the Redskins. It follows that the Giants will need to run the ball with some success early in the match. The Giants should take heart from the way that the Redskins were able to run the ball against the Eagles. WSH was able to ground out long drives by good fundamental blocking. The power and strength of the PHI front seven is somewhat of a concern.

In the passing game, I’m sure that we’ll here at some point that Eli Manning will face some exotic blitzes from PHI defensive co-ordinator Jim Johnson. This is where the Giants have to make a decision. If WR Plaxico Burress is healthy enough, the Giants might be tempted to use a max protect scheme on 3^rd down and try to hit Burress deep against single coverage. If Burress is still troubled by his ankle problem, then TE Jeremy Shockey has to be the hot receiver. If Shockey makes 3^rd down catches that move the chains, the Eagles will be forced to back off the pressure. Eli Manning has a history of losing his mechanics and technique when pressured, so PHI will be loathe to sit back and just play coverage.

Philadelphia

After the surreal nature of last Sunday, QB Donovan McNabb might be expected to enter this game on top of the world. But I think that RB Brian Westbrook is more important. Westbrook has to be decisive and strong against an NYG front that suddenly clicked in the second half last Sunday. Westbrook cannot get greedy and bounce runs outside. I would like to see the Eagles line up and run consistently over the right side of the line, using the nastiest RG / RT combo in the NFC, being RG Shaun Andrews and RT Jon Runyan. I can’t see LB Kawika Mitchell and LB Antonio Pierce shedding those blocks too easily. Of course, if DT Fred Robbins and DT Barry Cofield can disrupt the central rushing lanes, the linebackers will be far more dangerous.

When the Eagles throw the ball, WR Reggie Brown and WR Kevin Curtis have to get open. The Giants secondary was torched by the Cowboys in Week 1, and the Redskins too hit some deep passes last Sunday. I expect the PHI line to provide good pass protection. I think that the Eagles have to try to drive the Giants into softer coverage with a couple of early deep balls on 1^st & 10 or better. I have not been impressed with TE LJ Smith so far and I think that he needs to be a better broken play 3^rd down receiver (much like WSH TE Chris Cooley). The Eagles also should make every effort to use Westbrook on screens and option patterns, since the linebackers will have to sit off him out of respect for his speed. If they don’t, PHI must be prepared to call the wheel route and let Westbrook go deep.

Conclusion

It’s hardly a big call to predict that this will be close. I think, unusually, that it will help the Eagles to be on the road. I think that they need to be a little more conservative on offense and let the Giants force the play. There is an injury doubt over PHI K David Akers, but he is expected to play. I like the Eagles in a close one, mainly due to the fact that Westbrook is a proven game-breaker in this series. Don’t be surprised to see some trick plays, and maybe even fake kicks. This one is too important for both teams to leave any page untried.

Prediction: Philadelphia

Posted in Antonio Pierce, Brian Westbrook, David Akers, Derrick Ward, Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning, Fred Robbins, Game, Jeremy Shockey, Kawika Mitchell, Kevin Curtis, LJ Smith, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NY Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Reggie Brown | No Comments »

NFL Week 3 Instant Analysis New York Giants at Washington Redskins

September 24th, 2007 5:34 am
by Pro Set

NY Giants 24-17 Washington

This was the prototype game of 2 halves. With Washington playing exactly as the script anticipated in the 1^st half, a solid running game and a couple of deep passes and zero turnovers brought them a deserved 14 point half time lead. In the second half, things went wrong. Let’s examine why.

The simple answer is that WSH could not manufacture any first downs. The Redskins went 3 & out on every 3^rd quarter possession and then fumbled the next possession with scores level. Looking inside that problem, the key was first down rushing. WSH ran to the outside on 1^st down after half time and the Giants stuffed those plays. With WSH playing conservatively, losses on 1^st & 10 will lead to 3 & outs more often.

Despite the offensive ineptitude, WSH had 1^st & Goal at the NYG 5 with a minute left, no timeouts, and the clock running. QB Jason Campbell was finally allowed to make some throws and he hit Antwaan Randle El over the middle for a huge gain. Having got to the NYG 5, the Redskins spiked the ball. This was madness. If they had huddled up, and ran a 1^st down play at 30 seconds remaining, and called a pass, the clock would have stopped after that play (assuming incompletion or TD). This panic and disorganization was unacceptably poor.

The Redskins look like frontrunners to me. I can’t see them overcoming too many deficits this season. This makes the loss of a home 14 point lead an utter disaster for WSH. This loss already feels as though it will cost WSH any shot at winning the division.

For the Giants, Eli Manning is making progress. He overcame a 2 INT outing to move the chains and generally looked like a seasoned NFL QB. To get a divisional road win after trailing by 2 TDs at the half is never something to criticize. Unlike DAL QB Tony Romo, I think that Manning can improve further. The effort of a hobbled WR Plaxico Burress was also very impressive. Playing through the pain barrier is a sure way to unite a fractured locker-room.

The Giants will need to bring their second half defense when they play PHI next week. The Giants will also need a running game. RB Derrick Ward looked solid today. Whether he can be a consistent NFL featured back is a matter for debate. Ward himself can settle it by dominating against a suspect PHI defense next week. Unfortunately for the Giants I think that poor play-calling and hesitance by WSH made the job too easy. The Redskins lost despite a +2 turnover margin and a 17 point first half.

Posted in Analysis, Antwaan Randle El, Eli Manning, Jason Campbell, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NY Giants, Plaxico Burress, Washington Redskins, Week 3 Instant Analysis | No Comments »

NFL Week 3 Featured Preview: New York Giants @ Washington Redskins

September 21st, 2007 7:38 pm
by Pro Set

NY Giants (0-2) @ Washington (2-0) 4:15pm ET on FOX

The last time that NY Giants visited Washington, the Giants were under enormous pressure to win in order to salvage a playoff appearance from the ruins of a 6-2 start. Now the Giants return to Landover, MD with a worrisome 0-2 start and a coach (Tom Coughlin) who is firmly on the hot seat.

When the Giants have the ball, all the pressure will be on NYG QB Eli Manning. Unless or until RB Brandon Jacobs has a break out game, Manning will have to carry this team. Jacobs is a straight ahead power runner, and his best chance against the WSH defense will be to run over undersized defenders like MLB London Fletcher. Don’t expect to see Jacobs running counters or tosses. If WSH DT Cornelius Griffin, who has a quick first step, can get penetration, the Giants running game is in serious trouble. If Jacobs does have some success, expect to see S Sean Taylor try to come off the weak edge and run the play down behind the line of scrimmage.

NYG figures, however, to be a passing offense. Up front, WSH DE Philip Daniels is expected to return after missing the sensational MNF road win at Philadelphia. Combined with DE Andre Carter, this provides the Redskins with good pass rush capabilities from their front four.

I think that the key match up will be C Shaun O’Hara and G Chris Snee against Griffin. Manning needs to be able to step up and step into his throws. The WSH edge pass rush will be far less effective unless the pocket can also be collapsed through the middle. Success here for the NYG protection scheme will also force the Redskins to blitz more. The Giants should welcome that. WR Plaxico Burress can use his size when covered one-on-one. The WSH secondary is full of depth and CB Carlos Rogers and CB Shawn Springs will be able to play aggressive defense if Taylor and S LaRon Landry are sitting over the top in a 2 deep shell. Taylor and Landry have great range. NYG must eliminate one of these two by forcing them up near the line.

When Washington has the ball, expect a conservative game plan. With NYG having conceded 80 points through 2 weeks, the Redskins will look to pound it out and then hit WR Santana Moss on the deep play action pass. I expect Joe Gibbs to run early and often over the left side of the line. With G Randy Thomas and T Jon Jansen both injured, the left side of line is stronger for WSH. RB Clinton Portis and RB Ladell Betts must be patient. I think the Redskins could have a huge day on the ground.

As for the WSH passing game, QB Jason Campbell is rapidly improving. He can throw a nice deep ball, although he did overthrow a wide open Moss last week. Where I think that Campbell can excel, though, is on the move. Expect to see the Redskins leave 7 in to block, and Campbell to break to his right if the first read is covered. He will then look to dump the ball to Betts or to TE Chris Cooley for the first down. Campbell completed several huge 3^rd down conversions last week by passing well on the move.

In summary, this will be a battle of contrasting philosophies. The Giants will come into Washington and hope that their franchise QB can tear up a solid WSH defense and lead them to victory. The Redskins will rely on a consistent first down running attack complemented by a relatively mobile young QB. This series has a recent history of surprise performances. But Washington won me over last week with their long second half scoring drives.

Prediction: WSH

Line: WSH

Posted in Analysis, Chris Cooley, Chris Snee, Clinton Portis, Cornelius Griffin, Eli Manning, Game, Jason Campbell, Joe Gibbs, Jon Jansen, Ladell Betts, NFL, NFL Game Previews, NY Giants, Philip Daniels, Santana Moss, Shaun O'Hara, Washington Redskins | No Comments »

Week 2 Fantasy Players

September 16th, 2007 3:38 am
by Big Dog

There’s no question that the Buffalo Bills have had an emotionally challenging week as they’ve dealt with the news of Kevin Everett’s injury and then the nearly miraculous nature of his recover thus far. In spite of the distractions, expect the Bills to be playing with a lot of commitment and energy as their injured defense look to hold up against the attack of the Pittsburgh Steelers as led by Ben Roethlisberger.

That said, Roethlisberger himself has a lot to be playing for this week. He’s been stung by criticism of his decision making, game management and his performance last season. He’s got a lot to prove and teammates have reported that he’s training and playing with the drive and commitment of a man with a chip on his shoulder. Add to this the fact that the Steelers defense managed to force five turnovers and six sacks last week. If that proves to be a trend, then the Steelers offense is going to get plenty of playing time. I’d expect Big Ben to be taking full advantage of the Bills’ injuries this week and looking for some impressive numbers from him.

Plaxico Burress was a popular outlet for Eli Manning last week, with a total of 8 receptions for 144 yards and 3 touchdowns. While Manning remains in doubt with a shoulder injury (he’s almost universally expected to play), it would be reasonable to expect that backup quarterback Jared Lorenzen would look for a similar performance from Burress this week. Either way, expect the ball to fly and for Plaxico to test the Green Bay Packers defense.

Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt hosts his first home game as the Arizona Cardinals face the Seattle Seahawks. It’ll be a tough match as both teams posted some good performances in week 1. I think Seattle Running Back Shaun Alexander will supply some excellent value and entertainment this week. He traditionally averages close to 100 yards against the Cardinals and has scored 10 TDs in their last 5 meetings. If he gets a good jump this week, he could carry the Seahawks all the way to a win.

Champ Bailey will be worth keeping an eye on as the Denver Broncos play host to the Oakland Raiders this week. Coach Mike Shanahan has an excellent record against the Raiders and Champ is an interception specialist. In addition, his expanded duties on special teams ensure his contributions to the Broncos are spread as far across the field as possible. The decision to include the Champ on special teams was more than paid for with his touchdown saving tackle in week 1.

Good luck everyone, for week 2.

Posted in Analysis, Arizona Cardinals, Ben Roethlisberger, Buffalo Bills, Champ Bailey, Denver Broncos, Eli Manning, Game, Green Bay Packers, Jared Lorenzen, Ken Whisenhunt, Kevin Everett, Mike Shanahan, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NY Giants, Oakland Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers, Plaxico Burress, Seattle Seahawks, Shaun Alexander | No Comments »

NFL 2007 Week 1 Featured Previews

September 9th, 2007 2:56 am
by Pro Set

Philadelphia @ Green Bay (1pm ET on FOX)

PHI: -3.5

GB: +3.5

These two teams have been regular conference opponents. GB will be looking to utilise CB Al Harris and CB Charles Woodson to shut down the PHI passing game. This will allow the GB front seven to use safety help in preventing the Eagles from running the ball and clamping down on the notorious short passing game so loved by Eagles coach Andy Reid.

The key to the PHI passing game is whether Eagles QB Donovan McNabb can air it out early and open up some room underneath. I do not think that he needs to complete the deep passes, but a couple of early fades (even deliberate overthrows to eliminate INT risk) will put doubt in the Packers secondary. No DB likes to be burnt after being given plenty of warning.

On the ground, Eagles RB Brian Westbrook must avoid being overly ambitious and must hit the first hole with conviction. This will supply the better down and distance opportunities that allow options to the Eagles in play-calling. McNabb is the key to the third down conversions, and must be prepared to use his legs as soon as his first read is covered. Not only will this lessen the reliance on the questionable PHI receivers, but will also lessen the risk of turnovers.

For the GB offence, QB Brett Favre simply has to be patient. Against a traditionally aggressive PHI defence, opportunities will come to those who wait. This clearly demands that the GB pass protection must be consistent. Few passers are better than Favre at keeping his eyes downfield, but that leaves him open to a lot of hits simultaneous to throwing.

The Packers running game is an unknown commodity, with former RB Ahman Green now at Houston. Expect the Eagles to play slightly more conservatively than usual on defence, trusting the front seven, especially new addition LB Takeo Spikes, to cover the run. This will allow the Eagles safeties to double Packers WR Donald Driver whenever necessary.

Overall, if the Eagles commit zero turnovers and allow no special teams touchdowns, they should win, despite having a coach with a history of questionable clock management. The only chance that the Packers have is to combine a positive turnover margin with a 100+ passer rating on third down.

Prediction: PHI win

Line: PHI

Chicago @ San Diego (4:15pm ET on FOX)

CHI: +6.5

SD: -6.5

The equation for CHI on the road is pretty simple: stop Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson and have QB Rex Grossman put on a flawless exhibition of game management. When the Bears have the ball RB Cedric Benson will have to win the first down battle against Chargers NT Jamal Williams. This means that the key match-up in the entire game for mine is Williams versus Bears C Olin Kreutz. Unless the Bears can run the ball inside, Grossman will be facing consistently difficult down and distance equations. In this scenario Chargers LB Shawn Merriman is a huge threat as a one-man pass rush.

On the other hand, if Benson can get some momentum, Grossman can use WR Bernard Berrian on the deep play action pass. The speed of Berrian is something that should concern the Chargers.

For the SD offence, the temptation will be there to challenge the Bears defence. I think that over-aggression would be a mistake. Chargers QB Philip Rivers has no need to prove how good he is, at the risk of turning the ball over and allowing the Bears to play with a lead. It seems like Chargers WR Eric Parker will be absent so expect TE Anotonio Gates to receive the primary coverage from the Bears, most probably LB Brian Urlacher running with him, aided by a safety over the top.

I would like to see the Chargers concentrate on field position and let the inevitable Grossman mistakes give them control. Whilst this is hardly the game plan of a potential Super Bowl champion, the win is all that counts here. This is not college football, there are no style points or votes, and doing the simple things well under former coach Marty Schottenheimer did get the Chargers to 14-2 last season.

In summary, if SD commits no turnovers and if K Nate Kaeding is true from inside 50 yards, the Chargers will win. The Bears will need a breakout game from Grossman and a consistent push from the O-line.

Prediction: SD win

Line: SD

NY Giants @ Dallas (8:15pm ET on NBC)

NYG: +5.5

DAL: -5.5

Despite the fact that the Giants have performed quite well in Dallas in recent seasons, notably the excellent win there in 2005, the mystique of DAL QB Tony Romo sees many predicting a strong season from the Cowboys.

When the Giants have the ball, QB Eli Manning has to make the right read early and throw to advantage. His throws too often cause the receiver to lose momentum or dive and this shackles the ability to run after the catch, let alone the increase in drops. As a pocket passer, his mechanics will have to improve otherwise third down conversions are going to be tough.

The DAL defence should concentrate on preventing NYG from exploiting the DAL pass rush with screens and swing passes. Players such as LB DeMarcus Ware and SS Roy Williams (when blitzing) need to recognise quickly when the blitz is welcome. The key for this will be if Ware can recognise the cut block at left tackle and read the quick release. This is how a good pass rusher can intercept slant passes and disrupt screens.

For DAL, the Giants running game should not worry them unduly. This means that they can expect decent time of possession. Patience will be necessary and with WR Terry Glenn likely to be out, the issue will be keeping WR Terrell Owens happy when he is being double covered. This will be a big test for the game management skills of QB Tony Romo. He throws well, but he has to erase the memories of the disaster at Seattle in the NFC Wild Card playoff.

I think that he will continue his great start to the NFL and lead DAL to a crucial (but tight) divisional win. The pressure from the Cowboys defence will force Eli Manning into errors. The best chance for NYG is if Manning can complete deep passes to WR Burress and also complete play action passes to TE Shockey. This all depends on the NYG O-line dominating, and that, to me, is unlikely.

Prediction: DAL

Line: DAL

Posted in Analysis, Brett Favre, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Eli Manning, Eric Parker, Game, Green Bay Packers, NFL, NFL Game Previews, NFL on NBC, NFL on television, NY Giants, Olin Kreutz, Philadelphia Eagles, San Diego Chargers, Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn, Tony Romo | 1 Comment »