NFL Week 4 Instant Analysis: New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

October 2nd, 2007 8:09 pm
by Pro Set

New England 34-13 Cincinnati

Cincinnati fell to 1-3 because the Bengals defense could not pressure the passer. It did not help that the only CIN TD drive came when a turnover gave a short field to the Bengals.

When Cincinnati had possession, there were promising signs, but the Bengals were unable to convert drives into scoring opportunities. On the ground, RB Kenny Watson (13 rush; 55 yards) made some nice plays with RB Rudi Johnson injured. Watson, however, was unable to rush for enough early down yardage to allow QB Carson Palmer, 21-35 (234; TD; 2 INT) to test the New England secondary in play action. As CIN fell behind by two scores, the rushing game became more and more irrelevant.

The CIN passing attack was throttled early on as the Bengals favoured the ground attack. I though the Bengals game plan did not deserve the criticism that it received from the announcing booth. The plan was clearly one of keeping the game close and seeing how effective the running attack could be. And it almost worked. The score, remember, was NE 17-7 CIN at the two minute warning of the first half, with CIN in possession and in scoring range. The drive was fruitless as Palmer threw an INT. It was surprising that the MNF announcers even noticed the INT, as they were so focussed on the great story line of how the Bengals only had two fit linebackers.

In the end, with CIN unable to draw within one score, the pressure rested completely upon the passing game. With the heat on, I thought that the Bengals receivers dropped too many passes (albeit difficult ones). I also felt that Palmer was under perceived pressure from the NE pass rush. It was clear that Palmer was determined to get the ball out and not be sacked. In the circumstances, I thought that he threw more catchable balls than his number suggested. Indicative of the night experienced by the CIN receivers was the first INT thrown by Palmer when WR Chad Johnson (3 rec; 53 yards) ran a streak and Palmer threw for the square in route.

When New England had the ball, the attack was clinical. On the ground, RB Sammy Morris (21 rush; 117 yards; TD) did what was required. The Bengals were unable to stop the run with their front seven. It’s interesting to note that the only real time that the Bengals created real down-and-distance pressure on the Patriots, they forced a turnover. This was a 3^rd & 23 at NE 14 early in the 2^nd quarter. QB Tom Brady (25-32; 231; 3 TD; INT) forced the pass into bracket coverage.

Overall, the aerial attack of NE was too accurate and the pass protection was too good. Brady is just so good at stepping up whilst keeping his eyes downfield. In my mind, the only worthwhile pressure must be straight up the middle. It will take a good team playing near-flawless football to beat the Patriots on current form.

Posted in Analysis, Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals, Kenny Watson, Monday Night Football, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, New England Patriots, Sammy Morris, Tom Brady, Week 4 Instant Analysis | No Comments »

NFL Week 4 Featured Preview: New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

October 1st, 2007 5:07 am
by Pro Set

New England (3-0) @ Cincinnati (1-2) Monday Night Football 8:30pm ET on ESPN

Let’s hope that the Cincinnati defense is ready for some football as the Bengals host their second MNF fixture of the season. New England comes to town undefeated and with more weaponry than most third world armies.

There is really only one issue of note regarding this fixture: how the Bengals will attempt to stop the Patriots. The Bengals, remember, gave up 56 points to the Cleveland Browns in Week 2 at Cleveland.

Cincinnati

When the Bengals have the ball, they need to keep it for as long as possible, whilst scoring points. Whilst this sounds counter-intuitive, the simple fact is that the CIN defense is not good enough to stop the Patriots. So the CIN offense must stop the NE offense from even entering the arena as well as scoring. The Bengals running game must be good enough to prevent the NE defense from launching a full scale assault on CIN QB Carson Palmer. Expect the Patriots to put real pressure on early downs in an effort to set up favourable pass rush situations.

In the aerial game, this is a massive chance for Carson Palmer to demonstrate that he is truly an elite NFL QB. I think that he is close, but not quite there yet. Saints QB Drew Brees had a shocker under pressure last week on the MNF stage. Palmer will need to be decisive in his pre-snap reads. I think that he needs to establish his own game with some lasers early on slants and square in routes. Only then can he exploit the hawkish-ness of CB Asante Samuel and others by hitting the NE secondary on double moves. It’s time for WR Chad Johnson to let his football skills do the talking on national television. He has no excuses.

New England

The issue for NE is how patient the team ought to be. I would like to see the Patriots take over the game early and bury the Bengals. This will require good performances on the ground and in the air. RB Laurence Maroney should have a good night against a team that tackles poorly, with too great an emphasis on stripping the ball. Whilst the returns can be spectacular, such as the four fumbles recovered in Week 1 hosting BAL, it means that the Bengals have no margin for error. The Patriots should be able to construct a dominant running game with good second level blocking. Maroney has been serviceable without showing the level of play required to beat playoff defenses. When you play for the Patriots, it will often be in conditions not suitable for passing. Opponents need to respect the NE rushing attack. If NE can’t run on the Bengals, it might indicate the first real weakness in the 2007 Patriots.

Even if the Bengals can stop the NE running game, the porous CIN secondary will struggle against WR Randy Moss. Let’s not waste space by discussing how to cover Moss. It cannot be done for 60 minutes if Moss is up for the game. Prevention is better than cure. The front four of the Bengals simply has to find a way to get quick and multifaceted pressure on QB Tom Brady. So, even if CIN DE Justin Smith has the kind of performance that a former top-ten overall pick might be expected to have, Brady will step up into the pocket and find the target. It will need to be a combination of central pressure and edge rush to upset Brady.

Conclusion

It’s been a weekend of upsets so far. Cincinnati will need to light up the Patriots and score 30 points to win. I am really looking forward to see how Carson Palmer deals with the pre-snap movement of NE. I am also really looking forward simply to watching the Patriots in all facets of the game. And I expect them to win.

Prediction: New England

Posted in Asante Samuel, Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals, Game, Justin Smith, Monday Night Football, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, New England Patriots, Tom Brady | No Comments »

MNF Week 1

September 10th, 2007 8:44 pm
by Pro Set

Baltimore @ Cincinnati

First half thoughts

This first drive has been an absolute disaster for Baltimore thus far. With an illogical starting script of 4 pass plays, and a wasted timeout, things need to sharpen up. The only bright spot is the high catching ability of Ravens WR Demetrius Williams.

 

The Bengals receivers look like they only need a couple of seconds to get open. That will put serious pressure on the BAL secondary. The BAL pass rush will have to step up. 

What a terrible attempted running play from QB McNair to RB McGahee. McNair never even got close to the correct position. It is the responsibility of the QB to put the ball in the basket, so to speak. This one must be on the QB. 

The Ravens made a good stop here, but will have to limit turnovers. The missed FG is a lucky break for BAL, and as nice as the missed FG return was, the lateral at the end of the play was an unnecessarily dangerous attempt to force a big play. 

Drop back, sack, forced fumble: just an unbelievably poor start for BAL. There is something to be said for 3 carries between the tackles and a deep punt, if necessary. It’s called strategy and patience. 

Drop back, good pocket presence, deep corner pattern: touchdown reception to Bengals WR Chad Johnson. CIN finally cashes in on its good fortune and Johnson shows his great speed to fly by the BAL secondary. The deep throw by CIN QB Carson Palmer was just first class football. Missed PAT always takes some gloss off a score.

 

BAL 0-6 CIN

 

Ravens finally looking like a semi-professional team, until, wait a minute, another fumble. Lost fumbles on 3 consecutive drives on the road in the division is a hurdle that few teams overcome to win. 

I like the CIN emphasis here on moving the chains after the third FR. Eschewing the deep pass, Bengals moved the ball well and ran between the tackles. With Ravens LB Ray Lewis down to one arm, the horse collar penalty was the result. Of course, if BAL continues to turn the ball over, all the Bengals would need to do is run up the middle and kick deep. The suspect CIN FG unit will only be an issue if BAL can hold onto the football.

 

BAL 0-9 CIN

 

If the Ravens aren’t fumbling the ball, they’re dropping passes. Ravens WR Mark Clayton simply has to catch that third down pass. I think that the Ravens need to switch to slashing running plays, rather than the slower developing counter-action plays. Good to see TE Heap get involved in the passing game. 

Finally the BAL defence can show up in the CIN half. And they respond with a nice stop. I know that people will see it as being too conservative, but I think that the Bengals need to pound away with RB Rudi Johnson. With a 9-0 lead, CIN should tire out the Ravens defence and set up a deep play-action strike to catch out Ravens SS Ed Reed playing the run. 

Now BAL has finally settled down. McNair making some clutch third down throws. McGahee running hard over left guard. Williams catching the high pass again. They’re down to the 5 yard line now. Must score possession. And RB Musa Smith obliges over right guard. Despite the utter disaster so far, the score line is manageable. An 88 yard TD drive is exactly what BAL needed.

 

BAL 7-9 CIN   

 

The Monday Night Football crew is much better for the presence of Ron Jaworski. But Jaws holds the party line and does not embarrass the awful, moralistic, puritanical, Mike Tirico, when Tirico just described the WR Johnson end-around as a ‘reverse’. Anyway, lovely third down reception over the shoulder by WR Johnson to convert. Then another excellent catch and run. Palmer throws the ball superbly. Ravens need to be careful about blitzing. I want to see BAL stop the run on early downs and put the pressure on Palmer. And so they do, forcing the punt. Ravens take over with a touchback. 

Quick pass to Heap, then McGahee over right guard is super football. After a penalty, I love the 1^st and 20 screen pass call. But the Bengals destroy the 2^nd down running play. Again it was a slow developing lead draw. No need for this. Slashing running plays are better. Anyway, nice 3^rd down pass to Heap but the air under the ball allowed Bengals FS Dexter Jackson to hit Heap and force the drop. 

After a personal foul on the punt return, CIN gets an extra 15 yards and starts just shy of midfield. CIN should try to ensure that this drive (starting with 3 mins and change left in the half) is the final drive. With good receptions by WR Houshmandzedah and WR Johnson, the Bengals reach 1^st and 10 at the BAL 28 at the 2 min warning. Two quick short receptions and an injury timeout leads to 3^rd and 4 for CIN. An incompletion will allow BAL time for a drive. CIN should have run the ball and killed the half either way. Nice kick by K Scott Graham.

 

BAL 7-12 CIN

 

What can BAL do with 63 seconds left? Ravens KR BJ Sams is a stud, in my opinion, and hits the left sideline return past midfield. Ravens should play it carefully and guarantee a FG attempt. And they do! Great call Billick to run with Smith and get inside the 30 of CIN. After the good pass and catch, the spike kills the clock at 21 ticks left. Nice throw to the right front pylon, unlucky to get such good coverage. Must kick FG for Ravens K Matt Stover. Kick is up and good. Great job Ravens. In the worst first quarter effort I’ve seen for ages, BAL trails by only 2 pts. 

 

BAL 10-12 CIN Halftime

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