Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings – Week 4 Monday Night Football Preview

October 5th, 2009 8:16 am
by Big Dog

Monday Night Football is brewing up a storm tonight as the Vikings play host to the Green Bay Packers. It should be a fierce battle as the Vikings finally get to experience what it feels like to face the Packers with Brett Favre on their side.

Green Bay Packers

With Chad Clifton questionable for the game, and with the Vikings currently sitting as the 4th most aggressive defense in the league, Rodgers is really going to need to step up his game and improve his passing percentage. He’s done well to avoid giving the ball away so far this season, but he has to make some plays if the Packers are to have any hopes of the win here. A lot of defensive attention will be paid by the Packers to Favre, but in all honesty that’s a simple distraction and Mike McCarthy will surely be doing his best to instead try to contain the Vikings running game, while maintaining reasonable coverage. It’s an easier task than it sounds because while the Vikings can definitely run the football, Favre is still playing like he thinks he’s a kid, taking chances and making throws. If the Pack’s want to win this one, they’re going to need to play more like Brett would.

Minnesota Vikings

I’ve heard tell that “Favring” is a new verb, meaning to retire and then comeback, retire and then comeback. While there’s little doubt that Brett Favre has toyed with football fans everywhere in his off-season flip-flopping, there’s also clearly no question that he’s come to Minnesota to really play football. He’s not riding Peterson’s hard running path to glory, instead working the pocket and making plays to ensure that the Vikings really do have a balanced attack. He’s only given away one interception so far this season and the Vikings defense have been crushingly effective. If they can take advantage of key matchups at the line, expect the Vikings pass rush to become intimately familiar with Aaron Rodgers.

Prediction

There’s a lot at stake for both teams in tonight’s game. Pride, divisional standing, history, personal scores – all of these come into play. At the end of the day, right now the Vikings seem to have a more cohesive football team as a whole and better options to take the win at home. I’m going Vikings 24 – 21

Posted in Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson, Analysis, Brett Favre, Game, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Monday Night Football, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, NFL schedule, Week 4 Instant Analysis | 2 Comments »

Breaking News: Brett Favre to coach Australian Rules Football

June 28th, 2009 11:02 pm
by Big Dog

In a shock announcement today Brett Favre’s agent has revealed the quarterback’s intentions to begin a new career halfway around the world, taking on a coaching position with the Australian Rules football team, the Essendon Bombers. Favre said that he had long enjoyed watching the AFL games via satellite and that he had great respect for the skill and toughness required to play that game. “They have the strength and speed of linebackers, with the catching skills of wide receivers and the kicking ability of the best punters – it’s an amazing all-round set” Favre answered when asked what had attracted him to the game.

In response to a question about whether his NFL experience was relevant to entirely different code of football Favre laughed and said “Well I know about reading a game, I understand high pressure situations, and I know how to have fun while doing it. Anyone could learn from that.”

This shock announcement has shaken the NFL world and dismayed fans, players and coaches alike, most of whom thought Favre was destined for Minnesota.

Of course, the preceding paragraphs are entirely made up and have no relation to any persons living or dead. But when the world’s spinning in the grip of yet another year of “What Will Favre Do?” fever, well we just had to have a little fun with y’all. No matter what happens with the great number 4, we hope his recovery from surgery goes well and we’re sure Brett will continue to add lots of excitement to the world of football, on or off the field.

In any case, with no disrespect to Brett intended, I can’t wait for all this speculation to be over and for the season to have begun. There’s been a lot going on, but man I’m ready for some football!

Posted in Brett Favre, Game, Minnesota Vikings, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players | No Comments »

Week 12 Analysis: Green Bay @ Detroit

November 22nd, 2007 9:53 pm
by Pro Set

After the early success of Detroit on the ground, hopes were raised at Ford Field. Detroit RB Kevin Jones has proven in the past that he is a capable featured back. One could sense the crowd anticipating another miserable NFC domed outing for Green Bay QB Brett Favre.

As the half wore on, however, the shape of the game irreversibly unfolded. Detroit cannot generate enough pressure from its front four to hide its miserable secondary. Losing CB Dre Bly to Denver has weakened an already patchy secondary. DT Shaun Rogers gets all the face time, but too often he lumbers off the field after second down because he is tired from providing the inside run defense as well as the pass rush. With Green Bay passing so much (4 rushes: 31 passes mid third quarter) it was incumbent on Rogers and the DET line to exert pressure. This is meant to be the strong suit of DET coach Rod Marinelli.

The second half was an exhibition. Favre looked completely comfortable. He completed 20 passes straight. He completed every pass that he threw in the third quarter. His first incompletion for the half was when WR Greg Jones could not get a second foot down in the left edge of the DET end-zone. Inevitably, DET eventually blitzed. And the Packers were ready for it. They had the screen pass ready to go and only an ankle grab prevented a huge catch and run. This play call, which had perfectly anticipated the blitz, demonstrated the superiority of the Packers at all levels of this fixture. The fact that DET did not blitz more was ample proof of the lack of confidence that DET has in its secondary to cover man-to-man. The contrast with CB Charles Woodson and CB AL Harris of the Packers was very pronounced.

For Detroit, the late comeback of sorts was rendered pointless when GB escaped a 1^st and 20 without even facing a third down inside the final minutes, with DET within 8 points. The inability of the DET front seven to close running lanes between the tackles denied them any chance of a late tying drive. Indeed, the TD reception from WR Roy Williams that closed the gap was notable for the fact that he never actually grounded his second foot. He rolled off a Packer over the end-line, but the Back Judge was so focussed on whether he maintained possession that the score was given.

Clearly GB looks good. The late rushing bonanza was distorting of the influence that the GB passing attack had on the game. GB travels to Irving, TX, next Thursday night in the NFC game of the season. Please don’t give credit to NFL Network for “selecting” this game. They just got lucky, since the NFL policy is to give teams a week’s rest where possible. So the next Thursday night game was always going to be between two of the teams that played on Thanksgiving.

For Detroit, the two huge home losses of the past five days will crush their season. QB Jon Kitna played well, but, as I have mentioned earlier this season, he needs to shake the ghosts of 1999 where a great start capitulated and Seattle missed the first round bye and lost a home Wild Card playoff. I watched him closely today. He is a man whose confidence is not where it should be. DE Aaron Kampman could tell you more. He was next to Kitna for most of the DET possessions. In a team that has invested so heavily in receivers, Kitna needs to take three steps and release. In his defense, until the Martz retreads of WR Sean McDonald and WR Mike Furrey stop dropping passes, Detroit cannot win against a quality opponent.

Posted in Analysis, Brett Favre, Detroit Lions, Game, Green Bay Packers, Jon Kitna, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, Rod Marinelli | No Comments »

NFL Fantasy Football Week 3

September 21st, 2007 9:57 am
by Big Dog

One of the most intriguing matchups of the week is San Diego at Green Bay. The Chargers have a lot to prove, if they want to live up to the incredibly high expectations that their 14-2 record established last season, they need to win their next 14 straight.

As you may know, that’s not the kind of crazy talk prediction I’m willing to participate in. That said, San Diego have to make something happen this week to have any realistic chance of salvaging their season.

At the same time Brett Favre and the Packers have won their last six games. It’s easy to forget last season, and usually I’d be telling you that form last season doesn’t provide a solid basis for this season. Even so, everyone knows that last year the Packers were working with a very young side that lacked experience at the NFL level. By the end of last season we were seeing this team start to come good.

This late season form has carried into this year with the Packers putting up strong performances in the first two weeks. Last week Tom Brady, Randy Moss and the New England Offensive Line demonstrated that San Diego are vulnerable in the air. The Chargers’ secondary leaves a lot to be desired and it won’t take much separation for the passing game to open up. I’d be expecting good numbers this week from Brett Favre and his main receiving options, Donald Driver and James Jones.

Interestingly, I also think that this matchup will be important for LaDainian Tomlinson. Last week LT was held to only 43 yards from 18 attempts. It’s possible to argue that he hasn’t really lit up the field so far this season. If San Diego is to have a chance, they need their league MVP to do his thing. Expect an extra effort from Tomlinson this week.

Denver Broncos kicker, Jason Elam, has been the deciding factor in the last two weeks for the Broncos. It could well come down to field position and kicking again as the Jacksonville Jaguars come to play in Denver.

Atlanta play host to the Carolina Panthers this week. Panthers DE Julius Peppers will be looking to build on his fearsome reputation as a Quarterback’s nightmare. The Falcons have already given up 13 sacks this season and you can bet Peppers will be looking to push that total ever higher.

Good luck with week 3.

Posted in Atlanta Falcons, Brett Favre, Carolina Panthers, Denver Broncos, Donald Driver, Game, Green Bay Packers, Jacksonville Jaguars, James Jones, Jason Elam, Julius Peppers, LaDainian Tomlinson, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, New England Patriots, Randy Moss, San Diego Chargers, Tom Brady | No Comments »

Week 1 Instant Analysis

September 9th, 2007 5:59 pm
by Pro Set

Philadelphia 13

Green Bay 16

I always feel that college football players receive too much criticism for errors of judgement. On Sundays, the reverse is true. Green Bay scored 13 points from 3 PHI turnovers and that was, unsurprisingly, decisive. I said that the Eagles had to avoid turnovers and special teams touchdowns. The Eagles managed to yield to both categories on one play in the first quarter on a muffed punt recovery. PHI WR Greg Lewis was the culprit.

With a McNabb INT leading to a GB field goal, the Eagles had given up a 10 point start on the road. From then on PHI controlled the game without dominating. The Eagles ran well on early downs through RB Westbrook. This took pressure off McNabb. PHI built a 13-10 through some solid drives and disciplined defence, however it was inevitable that GB QB Favre would influence the result at some point. His effort on the tying FG drive late in the 3^rd quarter was phenomenal (7-9 for 66 yards), especially, of course, on 3^rd down.

So the game arrived at the not uncommon NFL scenario of scores level deep into the final quarter. GB had not looked like providing another long scoring drive or anything close, with the Packers rushing game shut down.

It looked like PHI would have the last chance to win the game when the Packers were stopped on 3^rd down inside the final minutes. But JR Reed, replacing Lewis as PR, sprinted towards the GB short punt at full speed and dived forward, muffing the catch. In all my time watching NFL games, this ranks as one of the worst individual mistakes that I have ever seen. There was no risk to possession by ignoring the ball. The punt was short, the game was tied. The game was then lost.

From a supposed professional, this was inexcusable. An example has to be set, and if Andy Reid does not cut him this week then I think that he simply has no future as a playoff coach. By not cutting him, Reid is admitting that the PR was not given specific instructions to ignore any difficult catch opportunity and simply to ensure that PHI secured possession.

Knowing when to instruct your players to leave a punt alone if in any doubt is an important feature of game management, and I openly questioned Reid’s game management in the preview. The Eagles gave this one away, and suffered a conference loss. The Packers defence was vastly improved on last season’s rabble, and I think that this makes McNabb’s effort very impressive.

Posted in Analysis, Andy Reid, Brett Favre, Brian Westbrook, Donovan McNabb, Game, Green Bay Packers, Greg Lewis, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, Philadelphia Eagles | No Comments »

Keep your eye on these…

September 9th, 2007 8:13 am
by Big Dog

It’s a big week in football. Arguably the biggest week of the regular season as teams seek to stake out an early lead in the race to divisional titles and the playoffs. Beyond the usual suspects, here are some players to watch closely in the coming games.

Firstly look out for Randy Moss in his debut for the Patriots. In their first outing together, Tom Brady will be wanting to connect early and often with his star receiver. This is even more important given the fact that Moss has been under an injury cloud coming into this game and has missed most of the preseason. If these two can establish a rhythm, they could be a nightmare for opposing defences.

Secondly, keep an eye on Brett Favre. Sure, it seems an obvious (and maybe even cliched) thing to say, but it’s true. It’d be easy to think that Brett’s motivated by the records he’s set to tumble this season. He’s one win away from passing Dan Marino and matching John Elway. He’s only seven touchdown passes away from the record for most all time. Records like that would be distracting for anyone, but it’d be a big mistake to think that’s what gets Favre going.

As he demonstrated last season with all the talk surrounding his possible retirement, Brett is more interested in the task at hand than the talk off the field. In the same way that he is able to keep looking downfield as the first and second tackles make contact, he is hungry for the Packers to win. Even with a tough matchup against the Eagles, watch closely this week (and this season), for the records and the football.

Third, the battle of the backups. This will be one of the most interesting matchups of the first round. Damon Huard (KC Chiefs) and Matt Schaub (Houston) will be working to prove their value as they both move into starting positions. Both men have demonstrated that they belong in the league, and after years of patience and hard work, they’re now in a position to capitalise on the opportunity to shape the game.

There is a real mental toughness required to patiently ride the bench and to accept that even when you do play, you’re probably headed right back to the bench. Expect both men to demonstrate this toughness and patience as they go head to head. I’ve got no better reason for this than a good feeling, but I think Huard might come out in front.

Posted in Analysis, Brett Favre, Damon Huard, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, Matt Schaub, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles, Randy Moss, Tom Brady | No Comments »

NFL 2007 Week 1 Featured Previews

September 9th, 2007 2:56 am
by Pro Set

Philadelphia @ Green Bay (1pm ET on FOX)

PHI: -3.5

GB: +3.5

These two teams have been regular conference opponents. GB will be looking to utilise CB Al Harris and CB Charles Woodson to shut down the PHI passing game. This will allow the GB front seven to use safety help in preventing the Eagles from running the ball and clamping down on the notorious short passing game so loved by Eagles coach Andy Reid.

The key to the PHI passing game is whether Eagles QB Donovan McNabb can air it out early and open up some room underneath. I do not think that he needs to complete the deep passes, but a couple of early fades (even deliberate overthrows to eliminate INT risk) will put doubt in the Packers secondary. No DB likes to be burnt after being given plenty of warning.

On the ground, Eagles RB Brian Westbrook must avoid being overly ambitious and must hit the first hole with conviction. This will supply the better down and distance opportunities that allow options to the Eagles in play-calling. McNabb is the key to the third down conversions, and must be prepared to use his legs as soon as his first read is covered. Not only will this lessen the reliance on the questionable PHI receivers, but will also lessen the risk of turnovers.

For the GB offence, QB Brett Favre simply has to be patient. Against a traditionally aggressive PHI defence, opportunities will come to those who wait. This clearly demands that the GB pass protection must be consistent. Few passers are better than Favre at keeping his eyes downfield, but that leaves him open to a lot of hits simultaneous to throwing.

The Packers running game is an unknown commodity, with former RB Ahman Green now at Houston. Expect the Eagles to play slightly more conservatively than usual on defence, trusting the front seven, especially new addition LB Takeo Spikes, to cover the run. This will allow the Eagles safeties to double Packers WR Donald Driver whenever necessary.

Overall, if the Eagles commit zero turnovers and allow no special teams touchdowns, they should win, despite having a coach with a history of questionable clock management. The only chance that the Packers have is to combine a positive turnover margin with a 100+ passer rating on third down.

Prediction: PHI win

Line: PHI

Chicago @ San Diego (4:15pm ET on FOX)

CHI: +6.5

SD: -6.5

The equation for CHI on the road is pretty simple: stop Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson and have QB Rex Grossman put on a flawless exhibition of game management. When the Bears have the ball RB Cedric Benson will have to win the first down battle against Chargers NT Jamal Williams. This means that the key match-up in the entire game for mine is Williams versus Bears C Olin Kreutz. Unless the Bears can run the ball inside, Grossman will be facing consistently difficult down and distance equations. In this scenario Chargers LB Shawn Merriman is a huge threat as a one-man pass rush.

On the other hand, if Benson can get some momentum, Grossman can use WR Bernard Berrian on the deep play action pass. The speed of Berrian is something that should concern the Chargers.

For the SD offence, the temptation will be there to challenge the Bears defence. I think that over-aggression would be a mistake. Chargers QB Philip Rivers has no need to prove how good he is, at the risk of turning the ball over and allowing the Bears to play with a lead. It seems like Chargers WR Eric Parker will be absent so expect TE Anotonio Gates to receive the primary coverage from the Bears, most probably LB Brian Urlacher running with him, aided by a safety over the top.

I would like to see the Chargers concentrate on field position and let the inevitable Grossman mistakes give them control. Whilst this is hardly the game plan of a potential Super Bowl champion, the win is all that counts here. This is not college football, there are no style points or votes, and doing the simple things well under former coach Marty Schottenheimer did get the Chargers to 14-2 last season.

In summary, if SD commits no turnovers and if K Nate Kaeding is true from inside 50 yards, the Chargers will win. The Bears will need a breakout game from Grossman and a consistent push from the O-line.

Prediction: SD win

Line: SD

NY Giants @ Dallas (8:15pm ET on NBC)

NYG: +5.5

DAL: -5.5

Despite the fact that the Giants have performed quite well in Dallas in recent seasons, notably the excellent win there in 2005, the mystique of DAL QB Tony Romo sees many predicting a strong season from the Cowboys.

When the Giants have the ball, QB Eli Manning has to make the right read early and throw to advantage. His throws too often cause the receiver to lose momentum or dive and this shackles the ability to run after the catch, let alone the increase in drops. As a pocket passer, his mechanics will have to improve otherwise third down conversions are going to be tough.

The DAL defence should concentrate on preventing NYG from exploiting the DAL pass rush with screens and swing passes. Players such as LB DeMarcus Ware and SS Roy Williams (when blitzing) need to recognise quickly when the blitz is welcome. The key for this will be if Ware can recognise the cut block at left tackle and read the quick release. This is how a good pass rusher can intercept slant passes and disrupt screens.

For DAL, the Giants running game should not worry them unduly. This means that they can expect decent time of possession. Patience will be necessary and with WR Terry Glenn likely to be out, the issue will be keeping WR Terrell Owens happy when he is being double covered. This will be a big test for the game management skills of QB Tony Romo. He throws well, but he has to erase the memories of the disaster at Seattle in the NFC Wild Card playoff.

I think that he will continue his great start to the NFL and lead DAL to a crucial (but tight) divisional win. The pressure from the Cowboys defence will force Eli Manning into errors. The best chance for NYG is if Manning can complete deep passes to WR Burress and also complete play action passes to TE Shockey. This all depends on the NYG O-line dominating, and that, to me, is unlikely.

Prediction: DAL

Line: DAL

Posted in Analysis, Brett Favre, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Eli Manning, Eric Parker, Game, Green Bay Packers, NFL, NFL Game Previews, NFL on NBC, NFL on television, NY Giants, Olin Kreutz, Philadelphia Eagles, San Diego Chargers, Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn, Tony Romo | 1 Comment »