In Week 6 San Diego hosted a 5-0 Denver team and lost. Denver progressed to 6-0 whilst San Diego fell to 2-3 were written off by many. Defense was the issue for San Diego. Chargers QB Philip Rivers was playing well then and he’s playing better now. TE Antonio Gates looks healthy and WR Malcolm Floyd has deposed WR Chris Chambers (released). The game winning drive at the Meadowlands was as good as it gets.
Denver is in trouble. The Broncos are an ordinary team and it is now showing. The injury suffered by QB Kyle Orton means that he is a game time decision. Backup QB Chris Simms looked terrible against Washington last Sunday. But the real problem is in the running game. Denver cannot run the football. This has reduced the impact of TE Tony Scheffler, who was huge in the second half at Qualcomm. If the Chargers can play decent defense on first down, and force passing situations, the Chargers should win. Dallas and New England dominated Denver for periods before losing momentum late. San Diego plays every year at Mile High, and has the better football team.
In the 50th anniversary AFL season, the AFC West looks like a one team show. Al Davis, Pat Bowlen and Clark Hunt proffer three head coaches with one combined season of NFL head coaching experience. Norv Turner knows that 5-8 will not again be parlayed into a home playoff win. San Diego expects to win; the others hope.
Looking forward, season 2009 will be defined by the three AFC West games that open the schedule for the Raiders. Tom Cable is on the hot seat at 0-0. He needs help. Two recent SEC superstars need to deliver. QB JaMarcus Russell (LSU) and RB Darren McFadden (Arkansas) will feel the heat this season. They weren’t drafted to be backups. Some blocking and catching would help; I think that WR Javon Walker probably owes several TDs to the Raiders.
On defense, the anchor is Cleveland and Denver reject: DT Gerard Warren. Denver is well known for quality run defense: ask Mike Shanahan. It looks like DE Derrick Burgess will again be the sole pass rush threat. And he had better get to the QB fast, as the Raiders have been awful at safety since Shannon Sharpe humiliated them in the 2000 season AFC Title game.
Fearless Prediction: 5-11 and swept by the Chargers again
Big Dog Barks: To be honest with you, I’d actually forgotten the Raiders still existed. As a team they’re equivalent of the “payroll error” in the movie Office Space – everyone stopped paying attention to the Raiders years ago and they just kept turning up anyway. Actually I think Oakland could benefit from holding open tryouts and seeing who turns up – at least then we’d have something interesting to watch. Who knows, maybe there are some talented high school kids in the Bay Area who deserve a shot?
Foolhardy Guess: 4-12 assuming that somebody can talk Rudy into playing for them -
ProSet Proclaims: Denver deserves to have a better season. Owner Pat Bowlen is a loyal guy. But one playoff win in ten seasons is firing material in Cincinnati, let alone Denver. No Sunday night games illustrate the fall.
Josh McDaniels has blown up the skill positions in his first off-season. QB Jay Cutler was traded for QB Kyle Orton. RB Correll Buckhalter is new. RB Knowshon Moreno (UGA) was drafted first round. WR Brandon Marshall is unsettled. Considering his predecessor was a supposed offensive genius, this is another example of perception overcoming reality. I mean, people still believe that the GOP is the party of small government, but both major parties are as wasteful as each other regarding public funds.
On defense, Denver is apparently considering a new system: tackling opposition runners and covering opposition receivers. New Defensive Coordinator Mike Nolan says that pressuring the passer is a bit advanced for the Donkeys. The depth chart backs him up.
Fearless Prediction: 7-9 with Thanksgiving prayers not to repeat the last Giants at Broncos match
Big Dog Barks: It’s sorely tempting to ask if “Mile High” is a reflection of Pat Bowlen’s mental state. To display this much loyalty after one playoff win in ten seasons implies he’s on some really good medication, or that somebody has compromising photos stashed away somewhere.
In any case, this is the year to try new things, like basic defense and offense. It remains to be seen how well they will do, but it’s hard not to echo Homer’s sentiments after Hank Scorpio gives him a football team –
ProSet Proclaims: This will be a tough season in Kansas City. The networks agree. The Chiefs have zero prime time games (despite crossing over with the ratings powerhouse NFC East). There is only one potential nationally televised game: Week 17 at Denver. CBS lower lights Don Criqui or Bill Macatee might as well buy a trailer next to Arrowhead.
On the field, the Chiefs will be sorely disappointed by new coach Todd Haley. The current trend to hire ‘hot’ coaching commodities on the back of one playoff run show s a disturbing bias towards ticket sales and ‘buzz’ over results. QB Kurt Warner to WR Larry Fitzgerald is not available. Legendary TE Tony Gonzalez has been traded. RB Larry Johnson, if his heart is in it, still holds the key to the Chiefs offense. The last remnant of the great mid-decade Chiefs O-Line, G Brian Waters, is unhappy. This is not good news for QB Matt Cassel. He might want to hire a full time home help.
Without the football (Chiefs fans are used to this) the new 3-4 defense looks weak up front. Glenn Dorsey will need to adjust fast to the difficult life of a 3-4 end. He’ll be expected to attract enough attention to free up blitzing linebackers. If he does his job well, doubtless the ill-informed will then highlight his low individual stats.
Fearless Prediction: 4-12 with a win over Denver to honour Lamar Hunt
Big Dog Barks: It takes a whole lot of things to come together in order to have a winning football franchise, no single coach or player can do it alone. Unfortunately for the Chiefs this year too many key members have been traded, lost or have other reasons to not be bonding well and this does not bode well for the possibility of developing real team cohesion.
They might get lucky and find the intensity of their first few games motivating enough to form them into a tight-knit unit but that doesn’t seem very likely. This will be a good season for Kansas City fans to circle the wagons and stockpile rations, they’re going to feel under siege.
Foolhardy Guess: 3-13 with the cavalry charging in to save the other side
Proset Proclaims: Norv Turner needs a faster start this season: and he gets the Raiders to open. San Diego should be 6-0 in the AFC West and beat CLE and CIN easily: that’s 8 wins.
I was really impressed with QB Philip Rivers last season. With RB LaDainian Tomlinson below his best, Rivers owned the offense. RB Darren Sproles got a lot of love for his efforts, but San Diego set up the run with the pass. As long as he hasn’t lost a step, WR Chris Chambers is the key receiver. He can draw a safety wide, allowing TE Antonio Gates to run the skinny post inside. I would line up Gates in the slot with Chambers at split end. If the defense floods that side, WR Vincent Jackson should have acres of space opposite. Rivers is now mature enough to make the right decision.
On defense, I felt that DT Jamal Williams was not quite as dominant last season. Obviously the injured LB Shawne Merriman stole the headlines. The Chargers have a good secondary. The linebackers must stay disciplined. There was a lot of outside rush last year and resultant inside gashing. Sacks look good. But an opposition YPC of fewer than 3.5 will win games.
Fearless Prediction: 12-4 with the game at Dallas being a season highlight
Big Dog Barks: Rivers was great for the Chargers last year and his decision making visibly improved as the season progressed. Expect more of the same this year, especially if Norv Turner can continue to make good use of his other key assets. The Chargers are on their way to being an electrifying team in the NFL once again. Look for them to get out to an early lead and to build on their winning momentum. Clearly they are the frontrunners for their division.
Foolhardy Guess: 14-2 with early breathless commentary about their ability to go undefeated
When assessing an NFL game, first impressions are important. As I looked over the depth charts before Sunday Night Football, the overriding issue was how the San Diego secondary would cope if the pressure did not immediately get to Brady. The brutal truth was that the New England passing game was too good. It often appears that QB Tom Brady could stop and drop-kick a field goal from the pocket that the New England O-line creates. Anyway, let’s focus on the first half, which was in all facets decisive.
The formula which let to the devastating first half NE offensive display was simple: pocket protection and passing accuracy. It sometimes seems simplistic to attribute the highest level of the game with nothing more than the skill that every QB seeks: accuracy. Yet it is consistent accuracy on a range of throws that sets the professionals apart. It is all about doing the simple things well every time. If you think that it is over-simplistic, contrast the first play that the Chargers ran from scrimmage with their TD drive to open the second half.
In analysing this overmatched contest, the most pressing concern is how other team are going to attack the New England offense. The sheer presence of WR Randy Moss takes away a safety. This severely limits the blitzing flexibility of the defense. I cannot see any NFL defensive coordinator risking pure man-to-man on Moss. There will be a sizeable cushion whenever a 2-deep system is not being used. If you disagree, watch the 3rd quarter Moss TD rec on CB Drayton Florence, who might now agree that he cannot cover Moss alone. It will be fascinating to see how Buffalo decides to defend the Patriots next Sunday.
From the San Diego perspective, I was very disappointed that the Chargers did not try to exploit the absence of DE Richard Seymour and SS Rodney Harrison in the decisive first half. QB Philip Rivers was slightly off last week, and perhaps Chargers coach Norv Turner wanted him to throw early to gain confidence. That is the only rationalisation that I can deliver, because the NE defense, as it proved, drains, rather than supplies, confidence to opposing QBs. In his better than average call on NBC, John Madden made great points about the NE front seven disguising their true assignments pre-snap. Disguise and subterfuge are far less effective against straight ahead, fast hitting running plays. Strength and speed cannot be ‘coached up’ , so to speak, and with SD possessing top level speed and strength, the coaches should have let them test it against the Pats.
I would have rushed RB LaDainian Tomlinson off tackle behind FB Lorenzo Neal, followed by RB Michael Turner on third down draws or slams. Even if this failed for two or three drives, it slows the pace of the game, reduces turnover risk, and even by default sets up play action to TE Antonio Gates. The high point of this was when SD recovered a NE fumbled kick-off return just after an SD touchdown. Norv Turner could not resist trying the deep passing play from the NE 31, and Rivers was sacked. And then Rivers was sacked again. Only on 3rd & 30 did we finally see the first screen pass to Tomlinson. Surely this was not to be saved for 3rd & 30? It was an all-around poor offensive game-plan from the SD offensive staff.
In summary, it has to be back to basics for SD next week at Lambeau. My early feeling is that SD will be a great value bet. For NE, it will be truly be a case of avoiding complacency against Buffalo. And that, again, is what separates truly professional teams: they win when they should, as well as when they merely have a good chance. NE might be so professional that the Patriots push the rules to the limits, but if NE were a listed company, just like many soccer clubs are in Europe, would shareholders expect anything else?
Last season San Diego compiled a 14-2 record that culminated in a first round bye and a home divisional playoff. New England defeated San Diego in one of the most compelling and intense NFL games that I have ever seen. When a team sacks a 14-2 coach because of one loss, nothing more needs to be said about how much pain surrounds that playoff exit.
For this monster game, new San Diego coach Norv Turner will look to replicate the overwhelming pressure and crisp ball movement that gave them what appeared to be a winning lead at Qualcomm. It will not be easy. QB Philip Rivers looked a little rusty last week, going 22-31 (190; INT). There has been an injury cloud over some skill players in the SD offense. WR Eric Parker is out; and TE Antonio Gates is probable with a back injury. This all leads to the obvious conclusion that San Diego will struggle to beat the Patriots through the air. For not the first time, the burden will rest upon RB Ladainian Tomlinson to gain the early down yardage that prevents 3rd and long. Many of his carries last week resembled the infamous outing he had in 2005 at Philadelphia. In this game, however, Tomlinson is also going to be critical as a receiver; a previously huge facet of the SD offense which I thought was underused last week hosting Chicago. With Patriots S Rodney Harrison suspended and with DE Richard Seymour injured, San Diego has to get on top between the tackles. Look for the Patriots to cover Gates with LB Adalius Thomas, and I suspect that LB Rosevelt Colvin will deal with Tomlinson on passing plays.
For San Diego, I would eschew max protect and try to take advantage of NE blitzes with swing passes. This means that Rivers will have to make the perfect pre-snap read of the NE defense, but maybe he can get the inside word on signals from Bill Belichick.
When New England has the ball, San Diego has real problems. The best San Diego strategy to prevent QB Tom Brady from having time to set and throw deep to WR Randy Moss might be the all-out blitz. Brady, however, will hang in the pocket regardless of pressure and will keep his eyes up to spot the open receiver. One other huge game where this strategy was used against New England was by Denver (2005 AFC Divisional Playoff). Even though Denver won, it was only because Brady fractionally missed three or four deep balls where Denver had completely sold out and brought up to 8 players. It follows that San Diego must get central pressure on passing downs through DT Luis Castillo and edge pressure through LB Shawne Merriman. CB Drayton Florence cannot cover Moss alone.
In the running game, it will be the usual story of how much help C Dan Koppen needs to deal with NT Jamal Williams. If Koppen gets help from a guard to stop the initial surge, and then the Patriot interior linemen can get a hat on the SD linebackers, this game is over. The Bears were able to run up the middle last week, and it was fumbles, rather than tackles in the backfield, that generally halted the CHI rushing attack.
Overall, New England appears to have too good an offense not to score at least 20 points. It is hard to see San Diego matching the pace. I think that the best chance for the Chargers is if they get an early lead and goad the Patriots into being overaggressive on both sides of the ball. The home crowd pressure to throw deep to Moss will be there.
But I think that the Patriots are smarter than that, and will patiently run the ball, and trust Brady on third down. Expect New England to win unless the turnover margin is greater than +2 in favour of San Diego.
