NFL Week 3 Instant Analysis Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears

September 24th, 2007 5:34 am
by Pro Set

Dallas 34-10 Chicago

This game was not even close. Let’s look at how the Cowboys got the job done on both sides of the ball.

First, the Dallas O-Line did a great job in pass protection. Even though DAL gave up some holding penalties, the pocket that was created for QB Tony Romo was outstanding. The only way that Chicago could get pressure was by blitzing 2 linebackers straight up the middle. The stats show that MLB Brian Urlacher recorded 2 sacks, but many other times he and his mates were stoned by superior blocking. DT Tommie Harris did not look like a member of the opposing backfield, which is always the first step to victory.

Second, Tony Romo had a sensational night. I wrote in the preview that Romo was confident, and did he deliver or what. His effort was reminiscent of elite performances by top class passers against highly-rated defenses: such as this (BAL @ GB [2001]). Romo went 22-35 (329; 2 TD; INT) and those stats are a travesty. The INT was completely the fault of WR Patrick Crayton, who did not close his hands on a perfectly thrown ball in the first quarter. Romo was also denied a TD pass by Crayton, who dropped an even easier catch wide open on a stop route in the end zone in the 2^nd quarter. With the ensuing FG blocked, DAL had nothing to show for a truly outstanding drive.

Third, the Cowboys were unbelievable on 3^rd and long. My notes are covered with references to 3^rd & 15 and worse. At one point in the first quarter DAL rushed for 7 yards on 1st & 10 only to have consecutive false start penalties and a rush for -2 yards bring up 3^rd & 15 and the Romo pass was intercepted, as described above. WR Terrell Owens recovered from a couple of early drops to dominate the area between the hash marks and make great currency from crossing routes. Makes sure you catch the block laid by WR Sam Hurd on CHI S Adam Archuleta to spring Owens for a big gain on 3^rd & 11 from the DAL 8 with 5:59 left in the 3^rd quarter. Not to be too harsh, but Archuleta is a long-term liability wherever he plays. He can’t run, he can’t cover, and he lives off the one highlight play per season. He’s a poor player who is out of his depth against any decent passing team.

With Chicago struggling on offense, DAL knew that 24 points would give them a shot. And it was all about Romo. His passes were accurate. He got rid of the ball under pressure and kept his eyes up field. The consistent conversion of terrible down and distance scenarios was remarkable. This cannot happen every week, so DAL will have to cut down on penalties.

The Bears played just as I expected. They really tried to leverage the speed of WR Bernard Berrian. As DAL played off Berrian early, QB Rex Grossman, 15-32 (195; 0 TD; 3 INT) made good use of the hooks and curls to move the chains. As DAL then pressed Berrian, Grossman started working the slant. This brought up a major moment in the match. With the game tied at 3-3, and having just hit Berrian for a 1^st down, CHI enjoyed 1^st & 10 (at DAL 34) with 1:24 remaining in the first half. Berrian ran the slant and go, and DAL CB Anthony Henry took the bait. Grossman made the perfect throw, but Berrian dropped it cold.

Chicago got nothing from that drive and proceeded to offer little resistance in the second half. The defense got greedy, trying to strip the ball and make the big play instead of tackling. The Bears defense reminded me of Tampa Bay in the 2000 season. The defense knows that it is a dominant unit, but tries too hard sometimes to make up for the offensive ineptitude. This means that the fundamentally sound gap discipline and tackling form that makes a unit dominant is lost.

Despite an INT, a blocked FG return past midfield, and forcing endless 3^rd & long situations, the Bears defence gave up and the frustration was palpable. It’s hard not to be sympathetic. Grossman made some awful throws, but the key one was when the Bears took over at their own 13 following a DAL FG that made it DAL 20-10 CHI. A slow, high throw to what looked like an out route was picked off by CB Anthony Henry and returned for the TD.

Overall, the Bears have real issues on offense. The players have clearly lost belief in Grossman at QB and that is critical. Defenders need to play with belief and emotion. At present that emotion is centered on joining the home crowd in jeering Grossman. As for DAL, they are smoking. I still have concerns about the DAL run defense but few opponents will have the luxury of pounding away at the DAL front seven if Romo puts 30+ points on the board.

Posted in Adam Archuleta, Analysis, Anthony Henry, Bernard Berrian, Brian Urlacher, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Game, Jason Witten, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, Rex Grossman, Tommie Harris, Tony Romo, Week 3 Instant Analysis | No Comments »

NFL Week 3 Featured Preview: Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears

September 22nd, 2007 12:56 am
by Pro Set

Dallas (2-0) @ Chicago (1-1) 8:15pm ET on NBC

In a game with some hallmarks of the 2006 early season showdown when Seattle visited Chicago, the hottest team of the NFC, the Dallas Cowboys, comes to Soldier Field with a chance to improve to 3-0 and gain an important tiebreaker in the NFC.

Dallas has a balanced offense and a confident QB. All the confidence in the world, however, is useless unless the Cowboys can neutralize DT Tommie Harris. I wrote last week that G Leonard Davis needed to deliver, and the same holds true here. The whole DAL interior line must prevent the instantaneous penetration sought by the CHI defense. The quickness and anticipation that Harris brings is phenomenal. Obviously he plays the role that DT Warren Sapp played for Tampa Bay, where Lovie Smith used to coach. The disruption and closing speed that Harris displayed in Week 1 at San Diego reminded me of Sapp in his prime.

The Dallas running game will struggle if it is forced to try perimeter rushes. A genuine effort must be made to run at the heart of the CHI defense. DT Dusty Dvoracek is out for the season, although you would not know it from the official league depth chart) and DE Alex Brown will play on a bad ankle. DAL RB Julius Jones has played acceptably so far this season. I would like to see him attack the line of scrimmage more and carry tacklers forward. If he can’t get it done, the Cowboys must turn to RB Marion Barber. It is these yards on early downs that bring up 3^rd & 5 or better and allow DAL to keep drives alive.

The DAL passing game will have to be sharp. Although ESPN breathlessly states that WR Terrell Owens is averaging 23 yards per reception, this ignores his recent tendency to drop passes. Look for DAL QB Tony Romo, who has been outstanding through 2 weeks, to focus on short drops. For DAL, quick hooks to TE Jason Witten and crossing routes and slants to Owens figure to be the best way to get safe production in the passing game. The strength of Romo is his ability to get rid of the ball. Against this turnover driven CHI defense, if his early reads are covered on short drops, he must be prepared to keep the ball. Romo has to avoid turnovers, and therefore put all the pressure on the CHI offense. Against CHI, to punt inside the 20 is to succeed.

When Chicago has the football, the Bears must protect it. Despite the fact that RB Cedric Benson rushed for over 100 yards last Sunday, CHI has not yet established a dominant ground game. This is their chance. DAL NT Jason Ferguson is out for the season and CHI will try to run the ball inside the tackles. Expect DAL to stack the box and use S Roy Williams as a virtual linebacker in order to force the Bears to throw the ball. Stuffing the run on first down will place huge pressure on QB Rex Grossman, who is under pressure from Bears fans.

Following the turnover-ridden defeat at San Diego, the Bears needed help from special teams to beat Kansas City. The Bears have produced only one 10+ play drive this season (15 plays; 79 yards; TD vs KC). In Week 1 against the Chargers, the Bears had one 8 play drive (27 yards), and a 6 play drive (35 yards).

With CHI unable to move the football with rhythm, expect the Bears to look for the big play early. DAL S Roy Williams struggles when the ball is in the air, allowing too many passes to get in behind him. WR Bernard Berrian is the big play threat, and look for Grossman to throw the deep sideline patterns where Berrian can take on CB Anthony Henry. CB Terence Newman is out again and the DAL secondary will be stretched. If the Cowboys try to prevent Berrian from getting deep, WR Muhsin Muhammed must keep the chains moving with safe hands.

If the Cowboys can contain CB Devin Hester on special teams, and avoid turnovers, the DAL defense can win this game for the Cowboys. The Bears will need Grossman to win over the home crowd and prevent the game from becoming a nationally televised meltdown. In an upset that could derail the Bears’ season, I like the Cowboys.

Prediction: DAL

Line: DAL

Posted in Anthony Henry, Bernard Berrian, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Devin Hester, Game, Jason Witten, Julius Jones, Leonard Davis, Lovie Smith, Muhsin Muhammed, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, Terence Newman, Terrell Owens, Tommie Harris, Tony Romo | No Comments »

Week 2 Instant Analysis

September 16th, 2007 10:00 pm
by Pro Set

Dallas 37-20 Miami

The final score was not indicative of the real struggle that occurred in this game. Miami opened the game with a solid rushing attack. Clearly the aim was to set up deep passing plays. QB Trent Green slightly under-threw WR Marty Booker on the left sideline fly route and CB Anthony Henry, using inside trail technique, was able to pick off the under-throw because he was allowing for safety help over the top. After this incident the Dolphins switched the emphasis in their passing game.

Dallas built a 10-3 lead with long, sustained drives that brought about evident tiredness in the Miami pursuit. It became clear that when either defense did not force a 3 & out or produce a takeaway, it would be hard to sustain consistent pass pressure and pursuit.

The MIA FG drive in the final two mins of the first half was a vindication for the changing focus of the MIA passing attack. Knowing that DAL would respect Chambers and Booker by defending over the top, the Dolphins ran plenty of intermediate curls and come backs that enabled them to move the ball. With S Roy Williams often nosing around the line, where he is best (more on that later), DAL seemed to have a consistent three deep shell on first down, with S Ken Hamlin playing centerfield, forcing the DAL corners to surrender large first down cushions, hence the deep curls. This is where CB Terence Newman was sorely missed.

DAL 10-6 MIA (halftime)

With MIA taking a 13-10 lead off the opening drive of the 3rd quarter, by again utilizing first down passing, DAL looked in trouble. This trouble increased when DAL was forced to punt, trailling 13-10 still. I thought that the most important series of the game was the one that followed the DAL punt. The Cowboys gave up an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on the punt coverage (player not immediately returning inbounds after being forced out). Having given up two straight scoring drives, the Cowboys held the Dolphins to a 3 & out.

Credit to the FOX commentators (Kenny Albert and Daryl Johnston) for pre-emptively predicting peril for MIA when a penalty forced the Fish to re-punt the ball. From the moment that WR Patrick Crayton broke the first wave, the momentum swung.

DAL QB Tony Romo (14-29; 186yds; 2TD) took over the game completely. His pocket presence was outstanding. I said in the preview that Romo will get the ball off rather than take the sack, and on this drive we saw two consecutive examples. On 2nd & 8 from the MIA 14, Romo threw the ball off his back foot to Crayton, breaking towards the endzone on the reverse scramble drill, and drawing the pass interference penalty. Poor work from FOX here as Johnston failed to explain that, even though the penalized action was by MIA CB Travis Daniels in holding the jersey of Crayton, the fact that this occurrred after the pass was thrown caused the penalty to be assessed as pass interference. This is a significant benefit to the offense since PI gives a 1st down a the spot of the foul, whereas defensive holding is 5 yards from the previous spot and a 1st down. On the next play Romo was corralled and almost brought down by DT Vonnie Holliday on the play action fake, but threw the pass anyway just before his knees hit the ground. So always expect Romo to release the ball, but this will mean more fumbles and more deflected INT opportunities throughout the season. When it works, however, it looks talismanic.

With DAL having regained the lead (DAL 17-13 MIA) it was crucial for MIA to answer. With the DAL corners playing closer due the MIA intermediate passing attack as described above, the MIA offense sensibly looked for the quick separation patterns. The slant or skinny post is always the best, for it is hard for the CB, once the WR has inside position, to get between the receiver and the ball. So Trent Green attempted the skinny post to Chambers but he overthrew it and S Ken Hamlin, again coming over from deep centrefield, intercepted. DAL turned this takeaway into a FG that gave the Cowboys a touchdown lead.

With MIA on the ropes, Green needed to lead them on a solid drive. On the second play of the ensuing possession, a fumbled exchange from C to QB bled the belief from MIA. This was where the game was lost. MIA simply got too impatient and thought that they had cracked the DAL defence by their 1st down throwing.

DAL took the turnover in for for another FG, and again it was poor work by FOX that no-one mentioned that the ball went through off the upright. In the NFL, when the kickers usually kick from straight in front, it is very rare for a ball to strike the upright and go through. If you don’t believe me, ask Ryan Longwell, whose final seconds game winning FG attempt hit the upright and missed at DET today. The key to DAL getting in range on this drive was the use of WR Terrell Owens on a crossing route on 3rd & 7 that picked up 12 yards. In my opinion, Owens is best when he can get moving, take a relatively easy catch (he dropped several passes earlier in the game), and maximise the run after catch yardage.

The 10 point lead was never seriously threatened, and the Cowboys improved to 2-0, whilst the Dolphins remained winless.

DAL 37-20 MIA (final)

Overall, I though that Romo was superb, and although I fear that he will have multiple turnover games not infrequently, he showed today that when he’s on, it translates into wins. Don’t be seduced by the big rushing number of DAL, a lot of it was garbage time all or nothing plays (where the first line of defense is the only line). DAL would be well advised to note the ease with which MIA moved the ball and the fact that the edge pass rush was very quiet.

Miami showed flashes of offensive life, but cannot rely on the pass to the extent that became evident today. Also obvious is that 5 turnovers (4 INT) will not bring many wins, despite what Detroit fans might think. New C Samson Satele looks strong and does have long hair, but his poor snap caused the 3rd quarter lost fumble on the exchange, and that C-QB relationship (the most important in football, since it happens every play) must develop quickly. I did not think that Tim Ruddy would get a mention, but the Dolphins could have used him today. The bright spot for MIA is that Chambers and Booker remain a potent combination, although I am sure that Trent Green misses the central Kansas City target of TE Tony Gonzalez, since MIA TE David Martin is not a major threat. MIA can recover more easily than any other 0-2 team, since both losses were inter-conference.

Posted in Anthony Henry, Chris Chambers, Daryl Johnston, David Martin, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Ken Hamlin, Kenny Albert, Marty Booker, Minnesota Vikings, NFL, NFL on FOX, NFL on television, Patrick Crayton, Roy Williams (DAL), Ryan Longwell, Samson Satele, Terence Newman, Terrell Owens, Tim Ruddy, Tony Gonzalez, Tony Romo, Travis Daniels, Trent Green, Vonnie Holliday, Week 2 Instant Analysis | No Comments »