NFL Week 3 Featured Preview: San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers
September 20th, 2007 10:12 pm
by Pro Set
San Francisco (2-0) at Pittsburgh (2-0) 1pm ET on FOX
This is a rare interconference meeting between undefeated clubs. San Francisco has never visited Heinz Field. So this match might double as a chance for the blue collar Steel City to see a man in a designer suit: the well dressed SF coach Mike Nolan. Nolan, however, is meant to suit up only for home games. And if Flashdance taught us anything, it might be that Pittsburgh ladies are attracted to stylish bosses.
Pittsburgh has obviously been very impressive so far. RB Willie Parker has rushed for over 100 yards in both matches. With G Alan Faneca and T Marvel Smith, the left side of PIT O-line is the key to the running game. I expect PIT to be patient with the rushing attack. Arizona was able to run with some success between the tackles against the 3-4 SF defense. What I have not seen so far from the SF D-line is dominant penetration and play disruption. If this cannot be manufactured, the SF linebackers will have to take on the lead blocks of PIT FB Dan Kreider before they can even get to Parker. My prediction is that PIT will run the ball well enough to force S Michael Lewis to spend early downs close to the line of scrimmage.
The return to confidence of QB Ben Roethlisberger has been pivotal. The receiving duo of WR Hines Ward and WR Santonio Holmes provides a genuine threat. If the weather holds, the success of the Pittsburgh passing game will be a function of the pass protection and SF coverage ability. If PIT can rush the ball as described above, then SF will be forced to play a lot of Cover 3 or even play straight up man-to-man on the outside. I expect that SF will have the confidence to attempt this strategy. CB Nate Clements and CB Walt Harris have played very well so far. I would like to see PIT stretch the SF secondary early, and then use the solid running game to set up deep curls against the Cover 3 defense. For the 49ers, DE Bryant Young and his mates must get a solid pass rush happening.
If PIT does not run the ball well, SF has a real chance to win this game. Facing two good corners, any 3rd & long situation will leave Roethlisberger with difficult throws into a hungry and confidant secondary.
When SF has the ball, RB Frank Gore will need to have a stellar performance to keep the offense on the field. It seems certain that PIT will be set to stop the run early. I think that SF will have to take a chance and throw some deep play-action routes early in the game. SF has a clear offensive philosophy of run-first, and I expect PIT initially to respect the play-action. This means that WR Darrell Jackson must have safe hands, and that TE Vernon Davis must get a clean release to provide SF QB Alex Smith with a viable central passing option. With PIT S Troy Polamalu always looking to torpedo the run on early downs, I would like SF (early in the match) to try a max-protect, double tight end, play action pass on a TE post route to Vernon Davis in behind the PIT linebackers.
As nice as that sounds, the pressure will be on the SF O-line. G Larry Allen and T Jonas Jennings are past their prime, but can clearly still play. With the PIT tendency to look for tackles behind the line of scrimmage, I have always felt that the Steelers are liable to be hit by the big play, and if Frank Gore can hit a hole on a PIT blitz, he can rip off some large chunks. Gore must be protected against the PIT inside linebackers hitting the A and B gaps. This will mean that if the 49ers FB Moran Norris can stun the linebackers, Gore can get some momentum behind the rushing game.
Overall, PIT looks too strong at home. PIT has a solid rushing game complemented by a Superbowl winning QB under center. I just cannot see SF winning this match without deep early strikes and a positive turnover margin. Both of these things will be difficult to achieve. I think that the PIT O-line will provide enough protection for Roethlisberger to find open receivers, regardless of the quality of the SF secondary.
Prediction: PIT
Line: PIT
Posted in Alan Faneca, Alex Smith, Analysis, Ben Roethlisberger, Bryant Young, Darrell Jackson, Frank Gore, Game, Hines Ward, Marvel Smith, Michael Lewis, Mike Nolan, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, Nate Clements, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers, Santonio Holmes, Troy Polamalu, Vernon Davis, Walt Harris, Willie Parker | No Comments »