NY Giants @ Denver Thursday Night Football Preview

November 26th, 2009 8:16 am
by Pro Set

Denver is finally doing justice to my pessimism about Broncos football. As noted in last week’s Chargers at Broncos preview, Denver cannot run the ball. Early in the season Denver beat Dallas and New England at Mile High on big play catches from WR Brandon Marshall. The only thing he can hold onto now is RB Knowshon Moreno’s jersey as they fight over fumbles. The bizarre faux start of QB Kyle Orton last week intrigued me. The first thought that I had as Dan Fouts announced that Orton was ‘seriously’ warming up was: McDaniels did not want to register a loss with Orton as his starting QB. At season’s end McDaniels can say ‘we lost games when Orton was not starting due to injury.’ There’s no other explanation. By the way, Dick Enberg needs to retire right now. He obviously cannot see the field properly.

Thanksgiving note: Denver should be thankful that QB Jay Cutler is destroying the Bears, otherwise McDaniels would be under huge pressure right now.

New York played well last Sunday against a good Atlanta offense. The Giants have been hearing it over allowing the game into overtime, but the Falcons played very well in the final quarter. I’d be a much richer man had the Falcons won that toss in OT, as I had the Falcons on the money line. QB Eli Manning threw the ball superbly after the first quarter. But to win at Denver on short rest the Giants will need to run the ball and to throw play action passes. I would like to see some I-Form big (two TEs and two backs). Since Orton has to be expected to play, the Giants need to avoid the temptation to blitz. Orton will be very immobile. This means that seven man coverages (probably Cover 2 zone or Cover 2 man under) will force Orton to execute perfect throws off a bad plant foot. Blitzing allows more margin for error. QB mobility is actually more important against traditional coverage defense, since the QB needs to buy time for receivers to become open. If the Giants do not give up the big play, and keep it clean, the Giants should win.

Thanksgiving note: The last time the Giants visited Denver the world was very different. It was on Monday Night Football (10 September 2001) and the play of the game was an 85 yard punt by NYG P Rodney Williams. It was the first game at Invesco Field. I don’t know what’s planned for pregame tomorrow, but it would be nice to see the victims of 9/11 honoured by the NFL on a nationally televised game.

Posted in Analysis, Brian Dawkins, Denver Broncos, Eli Manning, Game, Jay Cutler, Josh McDaniels, Kyle Orton, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Thanksgiving Day Football, NFL on television, NY Giants, Tom Coughlin | No Comments »

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Thanksgiving Day Football Preview

November 25th, 2009 7:39 pm
by Big Dog

Thanksgiving isn’t a holiday that traditionally brings a lot of thankfulness to Detroit. They’ve lost their last few national appearances by wide margins and it’s a tough task again for them this week.

Green Bay Packers

Detroit’s pass defense is not doing the team any favours and it’s pretty reasonable to expect that Green Bay will be able to open up the field and let Rodgers put up some good numbers. If the Packers O-Line can get it together then Green Bay’s passing game should spread the Lions defense and create room for Grant when he’s needed.

Green Bay’s run defense is setting a standard. They haven’t let any rusher gain 100 yards since week 3, and they’ve faced the Vikings twice in that time. Detroit have struggled to put together a real ground game, often defaulting to the screen which can be effective but isn’t really the same thing.

What they’re thankful for: That they’re playing Detroit.

Detroit Lions

There’s a good chance that Detroit will struggle to live up to offensive expectations against Green Bay’s defensive backs. This will be especially true if Stafford really doesn’t play. If that happens then Culpepper will be required to manage the clock and minimise risks.

The Lions’ run defense is marginally better than their pass defense, and this week they’re helped by the fact that Ryan Grant isn’t the most electrifying running back in the league. Mostly this contest will come down to the battle at the line. If Detroit’s D-Line can gain dominance against the Packers O-Line then they’re in with a chance. Of course, this also depends on the line not making any embarrassing mistakes.

What they’re thankful for: That turkey, stuffing and beer will render most of their fans numb to the result.

Prediction

It seems pretty clear that Green Bay have the advantage in this holiday showdown. Packers 31 – 17

Posted in Aaron Rodgers, Analysis, Daunte Culpepper, Detroit Lions, Game, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL Thanksgiving Day Football, NFL on television, NFL schedule | No Comments »

Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens Week 11 Preview

November 22nd, 2009 7:10 am
by Big Dog

Indianapolis have really made an impact in the league this year with their thus-far undefeated run into the season. Admittedly in the last few weeks they have had huge helpings of luck that let them get across the line, but I’m sure that many a fan is willing to argue that a truly great team makes their own luck.

The Ravens still have a legendary defensive unit and have been working to shore up their on-field dominance. At the same time, investment is going into the offensive side of the game and if Baltimore can take advantage of the Colts’ poor run defense then they’re in with a shot.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have caused a bit of a stir having managed to make it this far through the season without a loss. The truth is that while their winning record is very impressive, this isn’t a team of the same calibre as the New England Patriots when they had their unbeaten regular season. On that basis alone, the odds should be stacked against the Colts – but football likes teams and players that can defy the odds.

Which is why I’m basing my view of this game on a few other factors, such as the Colts’ performance in their last few games. Let’s face it, Indianapolis has been lucky, really lucky to make it this far without losing. Last week’s comeback against the Patriots wasn’t a story of pure grit and determination – it was the story of Belichick making a poor judgement call (easy to say in hindsight) and paying for it. In any case, if that were an isolated incident I’d be willing to ignore it, but the Colts have looked shaky recently and they’re due.

If they want to succeed then they need to give Ray Lewis a concussion, shut down the Ravens’ running game and continue their unprecedented lucky streak. In other words, it’s a tall order by anyone’s standards.

Baltimore Ravens

Ok – the Ravens aren’t what they once were, but they’re still a powerful defensive team with a system that works and a tactical military defensive genius in Ray Lewis. Basically they could still make your offense suffer if their entire defense were on crutches. Manning and the Colts have been undeniably good this season but all the Ravens have to do is disrupt them and disruption is something the Ravens do instinctively.

Offensively all the Ravens need to do is run the ball. The Colts still haven’t got to the part of “Football for Dummies” where it tells you that you’re allowed to tackle a running back for a loss, and they’ve proven it with yet another tragic season of running yards allowed.

Prediction

It won’t be pretty and it won’t be particularly easy, but the Ravens will bring the Colts’ streak to an end with solid defense and simple running. Ravens win 27 – 21

Posted in Analysis, Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Game, Indianapolis Colts, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, New England Patriots, Peyton Manning, Ray Lewis | No Comments »

San Diego @ Denver Week 11 Preview

November 22nd, 2009 5:56 am
by Pro Set

In Week 6 San Diego hosted a 5-0 Denver team and lost. Denver progressed to 6-0 whilst San Diego fell to 2-3 were written off by many. Defense was the issue for San Diego. Chargers QB Philip Rivers was playing well then and he’s playing better now. TE Antonio Gates looks healthy and WR Malcolm Floyd has deposed WR Chris Chambers (released). The game winning drive at the Meadowlands was as good as it gets.

Denver is in trouble. The Broncos are an ordinary team and it is now showing. The injury suffered by QB Kyle Orton means that he is a game time decision. Backup QB Chris Simms looked terrible against Washington last Sunday. But the real problem is in the running game. Denver cannot run the football. This has reduced the impact of TE Tony Scheffler, who was huge in the second half at Qualcomm. If the Chargers can play decent defense on first down, and force passing situations, the Chargers should win. Dallas and New England dominated Denver for periods before losing momentum late. San Diego plays every year at Mile High, and has the better football team.

Posted in Analysis, Antonio Gates, Champ Bailey, Chris Chambers, Denver Broncos, Game, Kyle Orton, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers | No Comments »

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins Monday Night Football Week 5 Preview

October 12th, 2009 8:38 am
by Big Dog

The Jets picked up their first loss of the season last week and the Dolphins finally proved that they could win. Who will gain the upper hand in week 5? Let’s take a closer look at the teams and find out.

New York Jets

Coach Rex Ryan and his 4th ranked defense played a great game last week, but in the end it was some vital errors from rookie QB Mark Sanchez that proved decisive. What will really prove Sanchez’s status will be if he can bounce back this week with a performance that makes a statement. His coach certainly believes that it’s a possibility. The other interesting element will be the addition of Braylon Edwards to the team. The Jets have paid heftily to secure the trade, but if Sanchez and Edwards connect then this could be the final piece of the puzzle that makes the Jets into a real contender. Of course the Jets defense will need to continue dominating at the line, and will definitely need to contain the Dolphins’ wild run if they want to bounce back from last week. Expect the return of Calvin Pace to make bring a real boost to the intensity of this defense.

Miami Dolphins

Despite my initial doubts, it appears that the wildcat is working for the Dolphins. At least if you measure success in terms of yards gained. The team’s averaging 180+ yards on the ground per game, but have still only managed to win one of their first four outings. Chad Pennington is now out for the season and while the Fins’ one win came with Chad Henne behind centre, he was hardly an inspirational quarterback. And to be fair, you have to expect that it will take the guy a little time to settle into the starting position. The big question for the Dolphins is if they can turn their yardage on the ground into points on the board. That will be a tough ask against a newly reinforced Baltimore Jets defense. Right now there are big questions over the Dolphins and a shortage of clear answers.

Prediction

It’s clear that the battle for dominance on the ground will be decisive in this matchup and based on form so far this season it also seems equally clear that the Jets defense is in a more dominant position than the Dolphins offense. The Dolphins have struggled to convert where it counts, on the scoreboard. I’m predicting a strong Sanchez comeback and a Jets win 27 – 14

Posted in Analysis, Chad Pennington, Game, Miami Dolphins, Monday Night Football, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, NFL schedule, New York Jets, Week 5 Instant Analysis | No Comments »

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings – Week 4 Monday Night Football Preview

October 5th, 2009 8:16 am
by Big Dog

Monday Night Football is brewing up a storm tonight as the Vikings play host to the Green Bay Packers. It should be a fierce battle as the Vikings finally get to experience what it feels like to face the Packers with Brett Favre on their side.

Green Bay Packers

With Chad Clifton questionable for the game, and with the Vikings currently sitting as the 4th most aggressive defense in the league, Rodgers is really going to need to step up his game and improve his passing percentage. He’s done well to avoid giving the ball away so far this season, but he has to make some plays if the Packers are to have any hopes of the win here. A lot of defensive attention will be paid by the Packers to Favre, but in all honesty that’s a simple distraction and Mike McCarthy will surely be doing his best to instead try to contain the Vikings running game, while maintaining reasonable coverage. It’s an easier task than it sounds because while the Vikings can definitely run the football, Favre is still playing like he thinks he’s a kid, taking chances and making throws. If the Pack’s want to win this one, they’re going to need to play more like Brett would.

Minnesota Vikings

I’ve heard tell that “Favring” is a new verb, meaning to retire and then comeback, retire and then comeback. While there’s little doubt that Brett Favre has toyed with football fans everywhere in his off-season flip-flopping, there’s also clearly no question that he’s come to Minnesota to really play football. He’s not riding Peterson’s hard running path to glory, instead working the pocket and making plays to ensure that the Vikings really do have a balanced attack. He’s only given away one interception so far this season and the Vikings defense have been crushingly effective. If they can take advantage of key matchups at the line, expect the Vikings pass rush to become intimately familiar with Aaron Rodgers.

Prediction

There’s a lot at stake for both teams in tonight’s game. Pride, divisional standing, history, personal scores – all of these come into play. At the end of the day, right now the Vikings seem to have a more cohesive football team as a whole and better options to take the win at home. I’m going Vikings 24 – 21

Posted in Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson, Analysis, Brett Favre, Game, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Monday Night Football, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, NFL schedule, Week 4 Instant Analysis | 2 Comments »

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots – Week 4 Preview

October 4th, 2009 11:46 am
by Big Dog

In a week when it’s arguable that most games will have relatively foregone conclusions, the Baltimore and New England face-off is an opportunity for some interesting and potentially surprising gameplay.

New England Patriots

As long as Tom Brady can stay upright and throw a football, the Patriots are almost certainly going to be favourites heading into pretty much any game. But as the New York Jets and Rex Ryan proved a couple of weeks ago, the Patriots are very beatable. Especially if you can put Brady under pressure. This has been the key weakness in the Patriots offense for several years now and they’ve really only been getting away with it because of their enduring ability to come through with strong offense when they need it most. If the Patriots O-Line can buy Brady enough time to let his receivers get deep then you have expect that they will be able to outperform the Ravens secondary.

Baltimore Ravens

Given that Coach Ryan made his name at Baltimore, you can expect the Ravens to have learned a lot from what they saw the Jets do. That said, you can also bet that the Patriots learned a hell of a lot from that game as well. In fact, given the identical ahem, similar nature of the Jets and Ravens defense this season, it’s very possible that New York’s success will be to Baltimore’s disadvantage. If the Ravens can manage to get to Brady a few times, rush him and disrupt his rhythm, then the game will be theirs for the taking. If in the attempt they create space for Brady to throw into, then it will be their undoing.

Prediction

The smart money has to be with the Patriots at home against a defense they’ve already seen this season. But that’s why I don’t look after our Best Bets page, I’m not known for sticking with the smart money. I’m calling it for the Ravens 17 – 13.

Posted in Analysis, Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Game, NFL, NFL Betting, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, NFL schedule, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Tom Brady | No Comments »

Indianapolis @ Arizona SNF Week 3 Preview

September 27th, 2009 5:44 am
by Pro Set

Arizona QB Kurt Warner had a great day last Sunday at Jacksonville. Ticket sales prove it. This starkly contrasted with his terrible performance in the home opener against San Francisco. Warner is at his best with multiple targets that he trusts. In St Louis there was Holt, Bruce, Hakim and Proehl. In the desert, Fitzgerald and Boldin are much more effective when Urban and Breaston are also available. This was evident in Week 1 when the 49ers blanketed Fitzgerald on intermediate routes. Warner responded by holding onto the ball too long. With Colts S Bob Sanders almost certainly not playing, ARZ should be able to pass well enought to set up some running. RB Beanie Wells will probably see more carries as the game progresses.

Indianapolis secured an important conference win at Miami on MNF. Colts QB Peyton Manning will be primed for another nationally-televised victory. Against a Cardinals defense that covers up its deficiencies with blitzes, Manning has the chance to have a big night. Watch for TE Dallas Clark to take some hot reads against secondary blitzes from S Adrian Wilson and the corners. Manning is a quality QB. He will get the ball out against the blitz. The Cardinals will therefore be called upon to make crucial one-on-one tackles. If those tackles are missed, the Cardinals will lose. A 1-2 start could mean a long delay before NBC returns to the desert.

Posted in Arizona Cardinals, Game, Indianapolis Colts, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL on NBC, NFL on television, Peyton Manning | No Comments »

Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins Monday Night Football Preview

September 21st, 2009 10:37 am
by Big Dog

Monday Night Football rushes headlong toward us in a week already full of some amazing football. Neither of these two team were particularly impressive in their first week games, although the Colts did come away with the win. It will be interesting to see which team has made the better adjustments coming into week 2.

Indianapolis Colts

It’s got to be tough being Jim Caldwell and inheriting a successful and cohesive unit. Even though he’s been a part of the Colts organisation for many years one has to wonder how open these veterans are to new ideas and new styles of play, and whether Caldwell really will be able to make his own mark in Indianapolis football history. The Colts certainly looked edgy in their first real game of the season and narrowly escaped with the victory against a plucky Jacksonville. With Anthony Gonzalez out due to injury, the Colts lose an important piece of their passing game, and limit their options offensively. This may not be critical though, as the Indy defense has shown that Caldwell’s new philosophy is yielding success, particularly in the pressure they were able to bring against the pass last week. If they can build on their early offensive success and improve their running production this game is there for the Colts to grab.

Miami Dolphins

Even though they suffered yet another ignominious defeat in the first week of the season, Miami can take some positives from their run defense in that game. If they can contain the Colts’ running game and force the pass then they will start to open the game up a little. That said, offensive production is a major issue for the Dolphins right now. Far too many turnovers were allowed last week, and no team in the NFL can afford to give the ball away repeatedly. Pennington is a solid but aging quarterback who is struggling to find his rhythm with a line that allowed 4 sacks last week. In short the Dolphins aren’t carrying themselves like a team that believes they can win, let alone a team that is determined to win. The Wildcat isn’t fooling anyone, the overuse of any system or tactic guaranteeing bland predictability, and so it’s demise cannot come soon enough. If the Dolphins want to win, they need to get back to basics.

Prediction

It’s possible that the Dolphins will pull out an upset here, but based on current performance I think it’s far more likely that the Colts defense will get the job done. Until the Dolphins learn how to play basic football again they’re all roar and no claws.

Indianapolis 24 – 17

Posted in Analysis, Chad Pennington, Game, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins, Monday Night Football, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television | No Comments »

New England Patriots @ New York Jets Preview

September 19th, 2009 1:03 pm
by Big Dog

Well it’s not really a surprise to anybody that the Patriots are coming off a win against Buffalo. What IS surprising, is how they very nearly didn’t. You can make all the excuses you like, but the simple truth is that the Patriots don’t have it together yet. Brady was very pressured by the Bills‘ pass rush, especially in the first half, and the characteristic Patriots cohesion just wasn’t on display.

At the same time the New York Jets just monstered Houston with the Texans’ only score the result of a combined INT and Fumble Recovery. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez is certainly stirring up the enthusiastic support of Jets fans and with good reason. So far he seems to be stepping up to playing at the elite level with a great deal of poise, maturity and mental presence – all of which he’ll need if he wants to win on Sunday.

New England Patriots

Brady and the Patriots offense put up good numbers last week, with 378 passing yards and 12 receptions each for Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Their running game was seriously hampered and had its lowest output in a while. This formula can’t hold up against the newly revitalised Baltimore Jets defense. Quite simply, the Patriots need to get more yardage on the ground and contain the brutal defensive onslaught the Jets unleashed on the Texans last week. If they can do that, then the Patriots will get the job done.

New York Jets

New head coach Rex Ryan is off to a strong start and has established a foundation for his right to the position on the basis of his defense’s miserly allowance of only 183 total yards against Houston. If his defense can bring that same intensity and success to this Sunday’s game, then they’re in with a chance. The New York Giants showed the way to beat the Patriots in Superbowl XLII, hit Brady hard and often (and pull off a miracle or two). Unsettle the passing game and disrupt the run. Make no mistake, Mark Sanchez is a very good rookie quarterback, but if the Jets are going to beat the Patriots, it will be the defense that wins the game.

Prediction

Any rational football fan has to take the Patriots here. Expect them to bring a journeyman, work-a-day approach to the game, looking to systematically pick the Jets apart. A cold, clinical and methodical approach.

But I’m not a rational fan when it comes to the Patriots. I can respect the team and their success (and I do), but I don’t like their flavour of kool-aid, so I’m not buying it. This might be a case of wishful thinking, but I’m going with the hubris of youth in Sanchez, the point to prove in Rex Ryan and the renewed passion of Jets fans, and most of all – the ferocity of their defense.

New York Jets 31 – 28

Posted in Analysis, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Game, Houston Texans, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, NFL schedule, NY Giants, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Randy Moss, Superbowl, Superbowl XLII, Tom Brady, Wes Welker | No Comments »