AFC 2009 Power Previews – AFC West

July 8th, 2009 1:56 am
by Big Dog

AFC West

In the 50th anniversary AFL season, the AFC West looks like a one team show. Al Davis, Pat Bowlen and Clark Hunt proffer three head coaches with one combined season of NFL head coaching experience. Norv Turner knows that 5-8 will not again be parlayed into a home playoff win. San Diego expects to win; the others hope.

Oakland Raiders

ProSet Proclaims: Owner Al Davis might be deliberately sabotaging this franchise to reduce its value when death duties are ultimately imposed. Does anyone else have a better explanation for the misery in the Bay Area? Consider this list: far-fetched lawsuits; overpriced free agents; endless coaching changes; divisional destitution. Season 2008 imploded at home on opening night.

Looking forward, season 2009 will be defined by the three AFC West games that open the schedule for the Raiders. Tom Cable is on the hot seat at 0-0. He needs help. Two recent SEC superstars need to deliver. QB JaMarcus Russell (LSU) and RB Darren McFadden (Arkansas) will feel the heat this season. They weren’t drafted to be backups. Some blocking and catching would help; I think that WR Javon Walker probably owes several TDs to the Raiders.

On defense, the anchor is Cleveland and Denver reject: DT Gerard Warren. Denver is well known for quality run defense: ask Mike Shanahan. It looks like DE Derrick Burgess will again be the sole pass rush threat. And he had better get to the QB fast, as the Raiders have been awful at safety since Shannon Sharpe humiliated them in the 2000 season AFC Title game.

Fearless Prediction: 5-11 and swept by the Chargers again

Big Dog Barks: To be honest with you, I’d actually forgotten the Raiders still existed. As a team they’re equivalent of the “payroll error” in the movie Office Space – everyone stopped paying attention to the Raiders years ago and they just kept turning up anyway. Actually I think Oakland could benefit from holding open tryouts and seeing who turns up – at least then we’d have something interesting to watch. Who knows, maybe there are some talented high school kids in the Bay Area who deserve a shot?

Foolhardy Guess: 4-12 assuming that somebody can talk Rudy into playing for them -

Denver Broncos

ProSet Proclaims: Denver deserves to have a better season. Owner Pat Bowlen is a loyal guy. But one playoff win in ten seasons is firing material in Cincinnati, let alone Denver. No Sunday night games illustrate the fall.

Josh McDaniels has blown up the skill positions in his first off-season. QB Jay Cutler was traded for QB Kyle Orton. RB Correll Buckhalter is new. RB Knowshon Moreno (UGA) was drafted first round. WR Brandon Marshall is unsettled. Considering his predecessor was a supposed offensive genius, this is another example of perception overcoming reality. I mean, people still believe that the GOP is the party of small government, but both major parties are as wasteful as each other regarding public funds.

On defense, Denver is apparently considering a new system: tackling opposition runners and covering opposition receivers. New Defensive Coordinator Mike Nolan says that pressuring the passer is a bit advanced for the Donkeys. The depth chart backs him up.

Fearless Prediction: 7-9 with Thanksgiving prayers not to repeat the last Giants at Broncos match

Big Dog Barks: It’s sorely tempting to ask if “Mile High” is a reflection of Pat Bowlen’s mental state. To display this much loyalty after one playoff win in ten seasons implies he’s on some really good medication, or that somebody has compromising photos stashed away somewhere.

In any case, this is the year to try new things, like basic defense and offense. It remains to be seen how well they will do, but it’s hard not to echo Homer’s sentiments after Hank Scorpio gives him a football team –

the Broncos are definitely not the Cowboys.

Foolhardy Guess: 8-8 after being inspired by Tom Landry’s hat

Kansas City Chiefs

ProSet Proclaims: This will be a tough season in Kansas City. The networks agree. The Chiefs have zero prime time games (despite crossing over with the ratings powerhouse NFC East). There is only one potential nationally televised game: Week 17 at Denver. CBS lower lights Don Criqui or Bill Macatee might as well buy a trailer next to Arrowhead.

On the field, the Chiefs will be sorely disappointed by new coach Todd Haley. The current trend to hire ‘hot’ coaching commodities on the back of one playoff run show s a disturbing bias towards ticket sales and ‘buzz’ over results. QB Kurt Warner to WR Larry Fitzgerald is not available. Legendary TE Tony Gonzalez has been traded. RB Larry Johnson, if his heart is in it, still holds the key to the Chiefs offense. The last remnant of the great mid-decade Chiefs O-Line, G Brian Waters, is unhappy. This is not good news for QB Matt Cassel. He might want to hire a full time home help.

Without the football (Chiefs fans are used to this) the new 3-4 defense looks weak up front. Glenn Dorsey will need to adjust fast to the difficult life of a 3-4 end. He’ll be expected to attract enough attention to free up blitzing linebackers. If he does his job well, doubtless the ill-informed will then highlight his low individual stats.

Fearless Prediction: 4-12 with a win over Denver to honour Lamar Hunt

Big Dog Barks: It takes a whole lot of things to come together in order to have a winning football franchise, no single coach or player can do it alone. Unfortunately for the Chiefs this year too many key members have been traded, lost or have other reasons to not be bonding well and this does not bode well for the possibility of developing real team cohesion.

They might get lucky and find the intensity of their first few games motivating enough to form them into a tight-knit unit but that doesn’t seem very likely. This will be a good season for Kansas City fans to circle the wagons and stockpile rations, they’re going to feel under siege.

Foolhardy Guess: 3-13 with the cavalry charging in to save the other side

San Diego Chargers

Proset Proclaims: Norv Turner needs a faster start this season: and he gets the Raiders to open. San Diego should be 6-0 in the AFC West and beat CLE and CIN easily: that’s 8 wins.

I was really impressed with QB Philip Rivers last season. With RB LaDainian Tomlinson below his best, Rivers owned the offense. RB Darren Sproles got a lot of love for his efforts, but San Diego set up the run with the pass. As long as he hasn’t lost a step, WR Chris Chambers is the key receiver. He can draw a safety wide, allowing TE Antonio Gates to run the skinny post inside. I would line up Gates in the slot with Chambers at split end. If the defense floods that side, WR Vincent Jackson should have acres of space opposite. Rivers is now mature enough to make the right decision.

On defense, I felt that DT Jamal Williams was not quite as dominant last season. Obviously the injured LB Shawne Merriman stole the headlines. The Chargers have a good secondary. The linebackers must stay disciplined. There was a lot of outside rush last year and resultant inside gashing. Sacks look good. But an opposition YPC of fewer than 3.5 will win games.

Fearless Prediction: 12-4 with the game at Dallas being a season highlight

Big Dog Barks: Rivers was great for the Chargers last year and his decision making visibly improved as the season progressed. Expect more of the same this year, especially if Norv Turner can continue to make good use of his other key assets. The Chargers are on their way to being an electrifying team in the NFL once again. Look for them to get out to an early lead and to build on their winning momentum. Clearly they are the frontrunners for their division.

Foolhardy Guess: 14-2 with early breathless commentary about their ability to go undefeated

Posted in Analysis, Antonio Gates, Chris Chambers, Correll Buckhalter, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Game, Jamal Williams, Jay Cutler, Kansas City Chiefs, LaDainian Tomlinson, Mike Nolan, Mike Shanahan, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, NFL schedule, Norv Turner, Oakland Raiders, Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers, Shawne Merriman, Tony Gonzalez | 2 Comments »

The AFC so far

October 4th, 2007 9:43 am
by NFL Freak

For most NFL teams, the season is already 25% complete. Let’s examine what’s happened so far in the AFC.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills (1-3)

A season-saving divisional win (vs NYJ) has given a spark to the Bills. The only NFL team based in New York can build on that momentum when Dallas visits Orchard Park for the first MNF game in Buffalo in 13 seasons. The Buffalo folk prefer day games, since so many of their fans have such long car trips to the game. Expect the Bills to be out of contention by the halfway point of the season. Dick Jauron is a nice guy, but he just can’t win playoff games, so there is no future in that relationship.

Miami Dolphins (0-4)

What a contrast for the former San Diego coordinators. MIA Coach Cam Cameron finally gets some heat applied after a terrible loss at home to Oakland. Despite acquiring a veteran (and proven) QB in Trent Green, I think that the Dolphins are just too old on the defensive side of the ball. If I’m Wayne Huizenga, I would ask why LB Zach Thomas and DE Jason Taylor ought not to be traded to real contenders in order to beef up the team in next year’s draft. Sorry, Dolphins fans, but this season will not extend into January. Expect a mid-season rally of sorts, but 0-4 in the AFC is irreparable damage.

New England Patriots (4-0)

The standout team in the entire NFL has been the Patriots. Courtesy of the overzealous hysteria about Spygate, the Patriots have clearly bonded and look to be too good. I missed the Salem witch trials, but it’s always refreshing to see history repeating itself. I’m sure, however, that QB Tom Brady is fired more by the crushing disappointment of consecutive seasons with playoff losses. An NFL career is only ever one play away from ending (as we unfortunately saw with BUF LB Kevin Everett). Most Patriot players are set for life. It is the diminishing window of opportunity that drives them. NE is the clear favourite for now. If Roger Goodell had some steel, he’d instruct the Patriots to print post-season tickets now.

New York Jets (1-3)

It’s been a disappointing 4 years since QB Chad Pennington led the Jets to the AFC East title. With RB Thomas Jones combining with RB Leon Washington, I expected the Jets to be able to run the ball well. Pennington needs good play action to be able to hit WR Laveranues Coles. The loss last Sunday at Buffalo will really hurt. I just cannot see the Jets grabbing an AFC Wild Card without 10 wins. And I don’t think that the Jets can go 9-3 from here with games against Dallas, New England and Baltimore still to go.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (2-2)

This is the one of the most disappointing 2-2 starts in the NFL. The Ravens are 0-2 in the division and will need to sweep Pittsburgh to win the AFC North. QB Steve McNair looks like he’s just had one campaign too many. There are only so many big plays that SS Ed Reed can make. This team has issues on both sides of the ball. As for Brian Billick, his 2001 axing of Trent Dilfer in favour of a passing philosophy with QB Elvis Grbac should have already led to his removal. The Ravens are in decline.

Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)

Clearly the Bengals have issues on defense. QB Carson Palmer has too much pressure on him to produce scores on every drive. This team will give up at least 24 points per game on average. With RB Rudi Johnson not being a true breakaway threat, this means that Palmer needs to have 35-40 TD passes this season. He might just get there. Whether the Bengals are playoff-calibre or not will be determined by their series against the NFC West. If Cincy cannot dominate a division without a standout team, the show is over. Remember, WR Chris Henry is nominally able to play after midseason (assuming Goodell reinstates him). Henry is better than the nickel corner for most teams. Anything less than a playoff win is a failure for Cincinnati.

Cleveland Browns (2-2)

After an opening week that exceeded even the most dismal prognostications, the Browns are now 2-1 in the division. QB Derek Anderson has been the man of the moment. It also appears that Cleveland has avoided the receiver curse in the draft with WR Braylon Edwards. I’m just not sure what to make of this team. In Edwards and TE Kellen Winslow, Cleveland has top class weapons. Unfortunately for Browns fans, I think that the Dawg Pound will be empty come January. The Browns have 3 divisional road games to come, as well as facing the Patriots. A winning record is possible, and I think that a winning record will save Romeo Crennel from the chop.

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1)

It’s hard to get a read on the Steelers. They key will be winning divisional games. Fortunately for Pittsburgh, it seems as thought the Steelers can rely on the rest of the AFC North knocking each other off. QB Ben Roethlisberger is the best game management QB in the division. Unlike the other teams in the AFC North, Pittsburgh does not have that brittle edge that can lead to implosion. I see PIT going at least 4-2 in the division, and 3-1 against the AFC East. Splitting their other games brings out a 10-6 record, so expect PIT to make the playoffs.

AFC South

Houston Texans (2-2)

For the first time in my life, I backed the Houston Texans (-3) at Atlanta last Sunday. Despite my retained bitterness, I am still impressed by the 2-2 start. The struggles against JAX (against whom HOU has a great record) and TEN will be fascinating. I like this division as the supplier of two playoff teams. For the Texans, QB Matt Schaub must continue to improve. Unless RB Ahman Green can prove me wrong and show that his best is not yet a distant memory, I think that the Texans can only win through the air. WR Andre Davis will need to stay healthy. I think that the Texans will run out of steam and finish 8-8, but at least HOU season ticket holders will have meaningful football to watch come December.

Indianapolis Colts (3-0)

The Colts are looking good without making too much noise. The Colts are already 2-0 in the division. I can’t see them losing to any team from the NFC either. QB Peyton Manning is now truly an elite NFL QB. I was one of the last doubters. The division is theirs if the Colts defensive front four can stay healthy. The loss of DT Anthony McFarland will be keenly felt. DE Dwight Freeney is deadly when the Colts have the lead in the second half. I still think, despite all the hype about S Bob Sanders, that teams can run on Indy with success. With the Chargers struggling, all signs point to another AFC decider between the Colts and the Patriots. The venue will matter.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1)

The bombshell that began the JAX season has proven to be successful so far. QB David Garrard has led the Jags to wins at Denver and verus Atlanta. JAX coach Jack Del Rio will still be upset that the inevitable teething problems of the Byron Leftwich issue spilled over into an opening day home divisional loss. If JAX misses the playoffs by a game, he will bitterly regret not acting earlier. For mine, RB Fred Taylor is in his final effective season. Between Taylor and RB Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX has to get back to pounding the ball, and then stopping the run through DT John Henderson and DT Marcus Stroud. Remember, however, that TEN ran for over 200 yards at JAX. With JAX already having had their bye, injuries will hurt them more than most as the season progresses.

Tennessee Titans (2-1)

The Titans are looking like the most improved team in the NFL. When one recalls their steamrolling finish to 2006, however, this is to be expected. QB Vince Young has clearly brought a sense of belief and excitement to the team. His passing is still developing, but he has the intangible quality of competitiveness that separates good players from winning players. I have been most impressed with the TEN defense. As long as the Titans can get pressure on the passer with only 4 down linemen, they will win games. With winnable games against AFC West teams and a weak NFC South, TEN should get 10 wins. The crucial games are, obviously, the divisional rivalries. If TEN goes 4-2 in the AFC South, expect them to be returning to the playoffs for the first time since the 2003 season.

AFC West

Denver Broncos (2-2)

Denver have given themselves a reliable start to the season and can build on their early success. Given their performance so far, you have to like the Broncos as they prepare to face the San Diego Chargers this Sunday. There’s no question that Mike Shanahan has his work cut out for him and will need to build more consistency into the team on both sides of the ball, but the Broncos are a real playoff chance.

Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)

The Chiefs crushed the San Diego Chargers last week, and it’s hard to tell if this is more an indication of the Chiefs’ form, or the Chargers’. QB Damon Huard seems to be settling in well and the Chiefs have made some ground on their passing game. That said, there’s still a long way to go till the playoffs – Chiefs fans, don’t hold your breath.

Oakland Raiders (2-2)

Oakland haven’t had the convincing start many expected. While they’ve had some strong wins and individual performances (including Daunte Culpepper against Miami), Oakland will need to win convincingly against the San Diego Chargers in order to convince the rest of us that they’re a genuine prospect.

San Diego Chargers (1-3)

San Diego have by far and away been the shock disappointment of the season so far. Expectations have been high following their 14-2 record of last season. It was big news when Norv Turner was brought in as a replacement coach for a successful team. Many Chargers fans can now justifiably question the sanity of that decision. Despite Turner’s reputation as an offensive specialist, the Chargers have comprehensively failed to ignite that half of their game. Star RB LaDainian Tomlinson has struggled to get things going, and there are serious questions to be asked about QB Philip Rivers’ decision making. At this point it’s difficult to see San Diego being able to realistically aim for much more than trying to finish the season with a winning record. Especially now that they’ve marked themselves as the weak team in the division. Everyone will be gunning for them.

Posted in Ahman Green, Analysis, Andre Davis, Anthony McFarland, Baltimore Ravens, Ben Roethlisberger, Bob Sanders, Braylon Edwards, Brian Billick, Buffalo Bills, Cam Cameron, Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Damon Huard, Daunte Culpepper, David Garrard, Denver Broncos, Derek Anderson, Dick Jauron, Dwight Freeney, Ed Reed, Fred Taylor, Game, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jason Taylor, John Henderson, Kansas City Chiefs, Kellen Winslow, Kevin Everett, LaDainian Tomlinson, Laveranues Coles, Leon Washington, Marcus Stroud, Matt Schaub, Maurice Jones-Drew, Miami Dolphins, Mike Shanahan, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Norv Turner, Oakland Raiders, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Romeo Crennel, Rudi Johnson, San Diego Chargers, Steve McNair, Tennessee Titans, Thomas Jones, Tom Brady, Trent Green, Vince Young, Zach Thomas | No Comments »

The hot seat – it burns, burns, burns

October 3rd, 2007 6:35 am
by Big Dog

We said it last time, and now it’s more true than ever, Norv Turner has to be grimacing with his butt firmly planted on the hottest seat in the NFL right now. So far this season San Diego have failed to fire on offense, in spite of Turner’s reputation as an offensive specialist. The Chargers are now languishing at 4th in the AFC West and have already lost more games than they did last season. Following the high expectations set last season, if the Chargers don’t turn things around and soon, Norv’s seat is set to spontaneously combust.

While it might not look like it on the surface, Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb must be feeling things heat up a little bit too. So far the Eagles have played four games using the same basic plan with little adjustment for each opposing team. Of those four games the Eagles have won only one, and while that game was won in spectacular fashion, it wasn’t a division game. In fact Philadelphia are now locked in a desperate struggle to salvage their season given the fact that Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, Wade Phillips and the Dallas Cowboys seem to be pretty content just racking up one win after the next.

Over in San Francisco somebody should tell Mike Nolan that Russell Crowe has already proven that Armani suits don’t win championships (his team made the playoffs and lost in the first round). There’s plenty to be said for looking good while you win, but you need to be winning before you can start worrying about looking good.

Cam Cameron also has to be starting to feel the heat in his first season for the Dolphins. Even though nobody had huge expectations for Miami, they’ve managed to disappoint anyway. Miami fans have to be hoping that Cam’s track record with successful QBs soon bears fruit with Trent Green.

What do you think? Hit us up in the comments and tell us whose seat is heating up and why.

Posted in Andy Reid, Cam Cameron, Dallas Cowboys, Donovan McNabb, Game, Miami Dolphins, Mike Nolan, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, Norv Turner, Philadelphia Eagles, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Terrell Owens, Tony Romo, Trent Green, Wade Phillips | No Comments »

Do I smell BBQ (or is that the Hot Seat)?

September 23rd, 2007 8:07 am
by Big Dog

Norv Turner inherited a healthy football team. Arguably a team in its prime. A team with a 14-2 record in the previous season, running a strong offense. In fact, an offense that he himself helped to implement. Turner’s reputation is as an offensive specialist, so what on earth is going wrong? This is the question in everyone’s mind, if not on their lips, following the Chargers’ crushing defeat at the hands of the New England Patriots last week. Norv’s seat may not be completely hot yet, but it’s definitely warming up.

The Miami Dolphins at New York Jets game is a battle of the bottom order. Both teams are 0-2 and desperate for that first win. Both have struggled to put together a consistent offense and to contain the run on defense. Turnovers are also an issue. The Jets are desperate to see QB Chad Pennington return from an ankle injury and settle down their offense. This is at the expense of a brave fourth quarter from backup quarterback Kellen Clemens.

This game is crucial for both teams, with the losing coach inheriting an 0-3 start to the season and one of the hottest seats in the NFL. Expect Eric Mangini and Cam Cameron to lay it all on the line here. In many ways, this will be the defining game of the season for both teams.

Posted in Cam Cameron, Chad Pennington, Eric Mangini, Game, Kellen Clemens, Miami Dolphins, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Norv Turner, San Diego Chargers | No Comments »

Week 2 Instant Analysis

September 17th, 2007 9:13 am
by Pro Set

San Diego 14-38 New England

When assessing an NFL game, first impressions are important. As I looked over the depth charts before Sunday Night Football, the overriding issue was how the San Diego secondary would cope if the pressure did not immediately get to Brady. The brutal truth was that the New England passing game was too good. It often appears that QB Tom Brady could stop and drop-kick a field goal from the pocket that the New England O-line creates. Anyway, let’s focus on the first half, which was in all facets decisive.

The formula which let to the devastating first half NE offensive display was simple: pocket protection and passing accuracy. It sometimes seems simplistic to attribute the highest level of the game with nothing more than the skill that every QB seeks: accuracy. Yet it is consistent accuracy on a range of throws that sets the professionals apart. It is all about doing the simple things well every time. If you think that it is over-simplistic, contrast the first play that the Chargers ran from scrimmage with their TD drive to open the second half.

In analysing this overmatched contest, the most pressing concern is how other team are going to attack the New England offense. The sheer presence of WR Randy Moss takes away a safety. This severely limits the blitzing flexibility of the defense. I cannot see any NFL defensive coordinator risking pure man-to-man on Moss. There will be a sizeable cushion whenever a 2-deep system is not being used. If you disagree, watch the 3^rd quarter Moss TD rec on CB Drayton Florence, who might now agree that he cannot cover Moss alone. It will be fascinating to see how Buffalo decides to defend the Patriots next Sunday.

From the San Diego perspective, I was very disappointed that the Chargers did not try to exploit the absence of DE Richard Seymour and SS Rodney Harrison in the decisive first half. QB Philip Rivers was slightly off last week, and perhaps Chargers coach Norv Turner wanted him to throw early to gain confidence. That is the only rationalisation that I can deliver, because the NE defense, as it proved, drains, rather than supplies, confidence to opposing QBs. In his better than average call on NBC, John Madden made great points about the NE front seven disguising their true assignments pre-snap. Disguise and subterfuge are far less effective against straight ahead, fast hitting running plays. Strength and speed cannot be ‘coached up’ , so to speak, and with SD possessing top level speed and strength, the coaches should have let them test it against the Pats.

I would have rushed RB LaDainian Tomlinson off tackle behind FB Lorenzo Neal, followed by RB Michael Turner on third down draws or slams. Even if this failed for two or three drives, it slows the pace of the game, reduces turnover risk, and even by default sets up play action to TE Antonio Gates. The high point of this was when SD recovered a NE fumbled kick-off return just after an SD touchdown. Norv Turner could not resist trying the deep passing play from the NE 31, and Rivers was sacked. And then Rivers was sacked again. Only on 3^rd & 30 did we finally see the first screen pass to Tomlinson. Surely this was not to be saved for 3^rd & 30? It was an all-around poor offensive game-plan from the SD offensive staff.

In summary, it has to be back to basics for SD next week at Lambeau. My early feeling is that SD will be a great value bet. For NE, it will be truly be a case of avoiding complacency against Buffalo. And that, again, is what separates truly professional teams: they win when they should, as well as when they merely have a good chance. NE might be so professional that the Patriots push the rules to the limits, but if NE were a listed company, just like many soccer clubs are in Europe, would shareholders expect anything else?

Posted in Analysis, Antonio Gates, Bill Belichick, Dick Jauron, Drayton Florence, Game, John Madden, LaDainian Tomlinson, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL on NBC, New England Patriots, Norv Turner, Philip Rivers, Randy Moss, Richard Seymour, Rodney Harrison, San Diego Chargers, Tom Brady, Week 2 Instant Analysis | No Comments »

Week 2 Featured Preview

September 15th, 2007 9:53 pm
by Pro Set

San Diego @ New England 8:15pm ET on NBC

Last season San Diego compiled a 14-2 record that culminated in a first round bye and a home divisional playoff. New England defeated San Diego in one of the most compelling and intense NFL games that I have ever seen. When a team sacks a 14-2 coach because of one loss, nothing more needs to be said about how much pain surrounds that playoff exit.

For this monster game, new San Diego coach Norv Turner will look to replicate the overwhelming pressure and crisp ball movement that gave them what appeared to be a winning lead at Qualcomm. It will not be easy. QB Philip Rivers looked a little rusty last week, going 22-31 (190; INT). There has been an injury cloud over some skill players in the SD offense. WR Eric Parker is out; and TE Antonio Gates is probable with a back injury. This all leads to the obvious conclusion that San Diego will struggle to beat the Patriots through the air. For not the first time, the burden will rest upon RB Ladainian Tomlinson to gain the early down yardage that prevents 3^rd and long. Many of his carries last week resembled the infamous outing he had in 2005 at Philadelphia. In this game, however, Tomlinson is also going to be critical as a receiver; a previously huge facet of the SD offense which I thought was underused last week hosting Chicago. With Patriots S Rodney Harrison suspended and with DE Richard Seymour injured, San Diego has to get on top between the tackles. Look for the Patriots to cover Gates with LB Adalius Thomas, and I suspect that LB Rosevelt Colvin will deal with Tomlinson on passing plays.

For San Diego, I would eschew max protect and try to take advantage of NE blitzes with swing passes. This means that Rivers will have to make the perfect pre-snap read of the NE defense, but maybe he can get the inside word on signals from Bill Belichick.

When New England has the ball, San Diego has real problems. The best San Diego strategy to prevent QB Tom Brady from having time to set and throw deep to WR Randy Moss might be the all-out blitz. Brady, however, will hang in the pocket regardless of pressure and will keep his eyes up to spot the open receiver. One other huge game where this strategy was used against New England was by Denver (2005 AFC Divisional Playoff). Even though Denver won, it was only because Brady fractionally missed three or four deep balls where Denver had completely sold out and brought up to 8 players. It follows that San Diego must get central pressure on passing downs through DT Luis Castillo and edge pressure through LB Shawne Merriman. CB Drayton Florence cannot cover Moss alone.

In the running game, it will be the usual story of how much help C Dan Koppen needs to deal with NT Jamal Williams. If Koppen gets help from a guard to stop the initial surge, and then the Patriot interior linemen can get a hat on the SD linebackers, this game is over. The Bears were able to run up the middle last week, and it was fumbles, rather than tackles in the backfield, that generally halted the CHI rushing attack.

Overall, New England appears to have too good an offense not to score at least 20 points. It is hard to see San Diego matching the pace. I think that the best chance for the Chargers is if they get an early lead and goad the Patriots into being overaggressive on both sides of the ball. The home crowd pressure to throw deep to Moss will be there.

But I think that the Patriots are smarter than that, and will patiently run the ball, and trust Brady on third down. Expect New England to win unless the turnover margin is greater than +2 in favour of San Diego.

Posted in Analysis, Antonio Gates, Bill Belichick, Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, Drayton Florence, Eric Parker, Game, LaDainian Tomlinson, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL on NBC, NFL on television, New England Patriots, Norv Turner, Philadelphia Eagles, Philip Rivers, Randy Moss, Richard Seymour, Rodney Harrison, San Diego Chargers, Shawne Merriman, Tom Brady | No Comments »