September 27th, 2007 8:31 pm
by Pro Set
Seattle (2-1) @ San Francisco (2-1) 4:05pm ET on FOX
This is a game that Seattle must win in order to have a successful season. San Francisco will be heavily reliant on running the ball. I will be surprised if either team scores over 24 points without help from defensive or special teams returns.
San Francisco
When SF has the ball, RB Frank Gore will see a heavy 1st down workload. Gore is carrying a hand injury as well as the burden of being the lone offensive threat. The SF rushing attack must be creative, consistent, and avoid negative yardage plays. This is a combination that very few NFL teams can accomplish.
I see no alternative for the 49ers but to pound away with Gore for most of the first half. Gore is excellent at hitting the first hole and running directly upfield. If T Jonas Jennings and G Larry Allen can open up the B gap on the left side, that might be the most consistently positive point of attack for SF. As such, the pressure will be on DT Rocky Bernard to stand up to Allen and come off the block to make the tackle. As Matt Millen used to say, “It’s no sin to be blocked in the NFL, but it is a cardinal sin to stay blocked.”
The other thing to beware is the tendency of the SEA run defense to be undisciplined. I have often seen SEA players try to avoid the lead blocker and give up the big play, rather than take on the lead blocker and slow the impetus of the runner. SEA must know that SF cannot put up big passing numbers, so run defense discipline (especially maintaining backside containment) will be instrumental in stopping SF.
With TE Vernon Davis out, the SF passing game is simply a function of whether WR Darrell Jackson can get quickly open. SF QB Alex Smith cannot afford to take sacks. I suspect that he will play off a three and five step drops and have only two reads. After that it’s scramble time. Look for the 49ers to try some early down screens and swings to Gore or FB Norris. If Smith takes on the SEA secondary and loses, the game is un-winnable. If he avoids this confrontation, and allows SF to punt when they can’t run the ball, SF has a chance.
If I were coaching the SEA defense, I would resist the temptation to blitz the young QB. I don’t think that SF has the receiving talent to get open looks for Smith against a seven-man coverage scheme. If SEA blitzes and SF gets lucky and hits the big play, that could inspire the upset. I think that SEA should only blitz regularly if SF demonstrates twice that the offense can move the ball.
Seattle
This is a game where the offense should not be under pressure to score touchdowns on every possession. Without wishing to be too conservative, I think that the SEA offense should concentrate primarily on winning the battle of field position. With SF likely to go 3 & out on multiple occasions, all SEA needs to do is pick up first downs.
The key to the SEA offense controlling this game is obviously RB Shaun Alexander. It is now confirmed that Alexander has a broken bone in his wrist. This means that RB Maurice Morris will need to step up and run the ball in several drives. Expect the 49ers to be very determined to stop first down rushing plays. This will tempt SEA coach Mike Holmgren to throw early. I would like to see him stick to the ground and be patient.
The reason I am so persistent on this point is that I have noticed that QB Matt Hasselbeck has an unfortunate tendency to force passes on the road. This was noticeable last year at Chicago (regular season) and in the famous playoff loss at Green Bay (2003 season). I’m sure that CB Walt Harris and CB Nate Clements are ready to break on some throws. Hasselbeck needs to concentrate less on proving that he is a good NFL passer and more on getting results. As it happens, I do believe that he is a good QB. Part of being a good QB, however, is recognising that the other team is struggling on offense and that a mistake free performance from the SEA offense will deliver the win. Adding to this is the fact that PIT showed last Sun that the SF rush defense will lose containment if it is playing from behind and trying to force the big play.
Conclusion
This game is, in cliché form, one for Seattle to lose. I just can’t see San Francisco producing enough offensive output to win the game. The 49ers will need to convert every turnover into points, and must win the special teams battles. With SF having signed infamous beer-truck deliveryman KR Michael Lewis this week, anything is possible. What is probable, however, is a solid but unspectacular SEA win. Holmgren needs to keep the ego at home and play it tight to get the road divisional win. He’ll thank himself come December.
Prediction: Seattle
Posted in Frank Gore, Game, Jonas Jennings, Larry Allen, Matt Millen, Michael Lewis (KR), Mike Holmgren, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL on FOX, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks | No Comments »