Superbowl XLII - PREVIEW

February 3rd, 2008 5:35 am
by Pro Set

New York Giants vs New England Patriots - Superbowl XLII

Despite the substandard play of Tom Brady in the AFC Championship Game, the Patriots remain clear favourites. The key to the game, when New England has the ball, is whether New York changes its tactics from the Week 17 contest.

In Week 17, the Giants attacked the patriots, and put pressure on Brady. He looked a little unsettled, and generally the tactics of the Giants met with widespread approval. But the seminal moment of Week 17 was the Brady to Moss TD pass when Moss was left single-covered. The playoff opponents that have faced New England clearly determined not to get beaten deep. This policy looked futile as Brady picked Jacksonville apart in the AFC Divisional Playoff. But JAX stuck form to the game plan, and never let the Patriots strike quickly.

San Diego followed this lead, despite the fact that JAX could not force the turnovers. Luck, however, was with SD as Brady was 5% off his game, and with 7 or 8 men in coverage, SD had the men there to swallow three INTs.

So, does New York attack or play coverage? The excellent weather in Arizona tends to suggest that Brady will be comfortable picking apart deep zones. But I think that the Giants must rush four and trust them to deliver. The Patriots offensive line has to have an off day eventually. Since New York has no one who can cover Moss in single coverage, it would be a massive gamble to bring excess rushers on a consistent basis.

For the Giants offense, Eli Manning needs to have his hot streak continued. The accuracy on his throws, the lack of one bounce receptions, and the reliability of Plaxico Burress have to arrive in Arizona. It is obviously well known that Eli Manning has not fared well in his career against the blitz. New England will be tempted to bring relentless pressure. This will test Asante Samuel, who is surely the man to cover Plax when the blitz arrives. He cannot fare worse than Al Harris, who had a nationally televised disaster that will surely be the epitaph to an overrated career.

The Patriots will win, and this author congratulates New England in advance on a perfect season.

Posted in Plaxico Burress, Bill Belichick, NFL Coaches, Asante Samuel, Tom Coughlin, Superbowl XLII, Superbowl, Randy Moss, Tom Brady, Analysis, Game, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, New England Patriots, NY Giants, NFL | No Comments »

Superbowl XLII - Pros and Cons

January 31st, 2008 11:11 pm
by Big Dog

The Superbowl’s always an exciting time of year. It’s the culmination of a long and hard season. It’s one of the greatest sporting spectacles on earth. And yet, if your team didn’t make it, the Superbowl presents a very real conundrum. Who do you cheer for?

This year your choice is between the New England Patriots and the New York Giants. Each of these teams present their own sets of pros and cons when you consider offering your support.

New England Patriots
Pros

Cons

New York Giants
Pros

Cons

Anyway, no matter who you decide to cheer for this weekend, enjoy the game, enjoy the spectacle and enjoy the football.

Posted in Plaxico Burress, NFL Game Previews, Bill Belichick, Tom Coughlin, Superbowl, Superbowl XLII, Laurence Maroney, NFL Coaches, Randy Moss, NFL Players, NFL Franchises/Teams, Game, Eli Manning, NY Giants, Tom Brady, New England Patriots, NFL | No Comments »

NFL Week 11 Analysis: New England @ Buffalo

November 19th, 2007 12:36 am
by Big Dog

Look, the truth is that you’re not supposed to say things like this, but I’d be a liar if I didn’t tell you this now. Watching the New England Patriots march unchallenged through their season is boring. It’s just boring.

In case you don’t already know, here’s how most of every game goes: QB Tom Brady to WR Randy Moss, TD. Brady to Moss, TD. Brady to Moss, TD. Brady to Moss, TD.

Over and over again, it’s boring. It’s not that the Buffalo Bills are bad. It’s just that New England hasn’t met a team that’s really challenged them yet. This is scary for a number of reasons. The first of which is that it has everybody talking about a perfect season. The truth is, while that’s more possible from here than it was 11 weeks ago, it’s still a tall order. The next thing is that it’s building this mythology around the Patriots that’s almost as dangerous as their defense.

I think this is why Head Coach Bill Belichick and Brady bring such an obsessive nature to what they do. It’s clear that this attitude has influenced the whole team, which is after all exactly what a good coach should do. These guys are averaging over 40 points per game this season and aren’t looking like they’ll slow down and all they do when they get back to training is look at what they did wrong!

They’re as dominant defensively as they are offensively and the Patriots are committed to this idea of a season so good that it completely washes away that nasty aftertaste of the whole spying controversy. I don’t begrudge this team any of their success, it’s obvious that they’ve worked fanatically hard to achieve it. That said, the scariest question of all that is raised by their complete dominance at the moment is, what will happen when they finally meet a team that can really challenge them?

Sure, sure. You’re already thinking of the Dallas and Indianapolis games, but that’s not my point and it’s not what I asked. The team that’s going to challenge the Patriots this season is going to be the completely unexpected one. That’s the only way to do it. To suddenly be better, play better, do new, interesting and desperate things that nobody sane would try. You need to be a team like the Miami Dolphins with nothing to lose and everything to gain by trying the crazy stuff.

When the Patriots are beating everyone else by huge margins, nobody’s going to blame the Dolphins if they lose big but lose big by trying something different. If and when that finally happens, that’ll be a Patriots game worth watching because there’ll finally be some unpredictability and uncertainty in it.

Until then, Brady to Moss, TD. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Posted in Randy Moss, Tom Brady, NFL Coaches, Buffalo Bills, Bill Belichick, New England Patriots, NFL Players, Analysis, Game, Miami Dolphins, NFL on NBC, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL | No Comments »

Week 2 Instant Analysis

September 17th, 2007 9:13 am
by Pro Set

San Diego 14-38 New England

When assessing an NFL game, first impressions are important. As I looked over the depth charts before Sunday Night Football, the overriding issue was how the San Diego secondary would cope if the pressure did not immediately get to Brady. The brutal truth was that the New England passing game was too good. It often appears that QB Tom Brady could stop and drop-kick a field goal from the pocket that the New England O-line creates. Anyway, let’s focus on the first half, which was in all facets decisive.

The formula which let to the devastating first half NE offensive display was simple: pocket protection and passing accuracy. It sometimes seems simplistic to attribute the highest level of the game with nothing more than the skill that every QB seeks: accuracy. Yet it is consistent accuracy on a range of throws that sets the professionals apart. It is all about doing the simple things well every time. If you think that it is over-simplistic, contrast the first play that the Chargers ran from scrimmage with their TD drive to open the second half.

In analysing this overmatched contest, the most pressing concern is how other team are going to attack the New England offense. The sheer presence of WR Randy Moss takes away a safety. This severely limits the blitzing flexibility of the defense. I cannot see any NFL defensive coordinator risking pure man-to-man on Moss. There will be a sizeable cushion whenever a 2-deep system is not being used. If you disagree, watch the 3^rd quarter Moss TD rec on CB Drayton Florence, who might now agree that he cannot cover Moss alone. It will be fascinating to see how Buffalo decides to defend the Patriots next Sunday.

From the San Diego perspective, I was very disappointed that the Chargers did not try to exploit the absence of DE Richard Seymour and SS Rodney Harrison in the decisive first half. QB Philip Rivers was slightly off last week, and perhaps Chargers coach Norv Turner wanted him to throw early to gain confidence. That is the only rationalisation that I can deliver, because the NE defense, as it proved, drains, rather than supplies, confidence to opposing QBs. In his better than average call on NBC, John Madden made great points about the NE front seven disguising their true assignments pre-snap. Disguise and subterfuge are far less effective against straight ahead, fast hitting running plays. Strength and speed cannot be ‘coached up’ , so to speak, and with SD possessing top level speed and strength, the coaches should have let them test it against the Pats.

I would have rushed RB LaDainian Tomlinson off tackle behind FB Lorenzo Neal, followed by RB Michael Turner on third down draws or slams. Even if this failed for two or three drives, it slows the pace of the game, reduces turnover risk, and even by default sets up play action to TE Antonio Gates. The high point of this was when SD recovered a NE fumbled kick-off return just after an SD touchdown. Norv Turner could not resist trying the deep passing play from the NE 31, and Rivers was sacked. And then Rivers was sacked again. Only on 3^rd & 30 did we finally see the first screen pass to Tomlinson. Surely this was not to be saved for 3^rd & 30? It was an all-around poor offensive game-plan from the SD offensive staff.

In summary, it has to be back to basics for SD next week at Lambeau. My early feeling is that SD will be a great value bet. For NE, it will be truly be a case of avoiding complacency against Buffalo. And that, again, is what separates truly professional teams: they win when they should, as well as when they merely have a good chance. NE might be so professional that the Patriots push the rules to the limits, but if NE were a listed company, just like many soccer clubs are in Europe, would shareholders expect anything else?

Posted in LaDainian Tomlinson, Rodney Harrison, Richard Seymour, Antonio Gates, Drayton Florence, Philip Rivers, Dick Jauron, John Madden, Week 2 Instant Analysis, Norv Turner, Bill Belichick, NFL on NBC, Analysis, Game, San Diego Chargers, New England Patriots, NFL Coaches, Randy Moss, Tom Brady, NFL | No Comments »

Week 2 Featured Preview

September 15th, 2007 9:53 pm
by Pro Set

San Diego @ New England 8:15pm ET on NBC

Last season San Diego compiled a 14-2 record that culminated in a first round bye and a home divisional playoff. New England defeated San Diego in one of the most compelling and intense NFL games that I have ever seen. When a team sacks a 14-2 coach because of one loss, nothing more needs to be said about how much pain surrounds that playoff exit.

For this monster game, new San Diego coach Norv Turner will look to replicate the overwhelming pressure and crisp ball movement that gave them what appeared to be a winning lead at Qualcomm. It will not be easy. QB Philip Rivers looked a little rusty last week, going 22-31 (190; INT). There has been an injury cloud over some skill players in the SD offense. WR Eric Parker is out; and TE Antonio Gates is probable with a back injury. This all leads to the obvious conclusion that San Diego will struggle to beat the Patriots through the air. For not the first time, the burden will rest upon RB Ladainian Tomlinson to gain the early down yardage that prevents 3^rd and long. Many of his carries last week resembled the infamous outing he had in 2005 at Philadelphia. In this game, however, Tomlinson is also going to be critical as a receiver; a previously huge facet of the SD offense which I thought was underused last week hosting Chicago. With Patriots S Rodney Harrison suspended and with DE Richard Seymour injured, San Diego has to get on top between the tackles. Look for the Patriots to cover Gates with LB Adalius Thomas, and I suspect that LB Rosevelt Colvin will deal with Tomlinson on passing plays.

For San Diego, I would eschew max protect and try to take advantage of NE blitzes with swing passes. This means that Rivers will have to make the perfect pre-snap read of the NE defense, but maybe he can get the inside word on signals from Bill Belichick.

When New England has the ball, San Diego has real problems. The best San Diego strategy to prevent QB Tom Brady from having time to set and throw deep to WR Randy Moss might be the all-out blitz. Brady, however, will hang in the pocket regardless of pressure and will keep his eyes up to spot the open receiver. One other huge game where this strategy was used against New England was by Denver (2005 AFC Divisional Playoff). Even though Denver won, it was only because Brady fractionally missed three or four deep balls where Denver had completely sold out and brought up to 8 players. It follows that San Diego must get central pressure on passing downs through DT Luis Castillo and edge pressure through LB Shawne Merriman. CB Drayton Florence cannot cover Moss alone.

In the running game, it will be the usual story of how much help C Dan Koppen needs to deal with NT Jamal Williams. If Koppen gets help from a guard to stop the initial surge, and then the Patriot interior linemen can get a hat on the SD linebackers, this game is over. The Bears were able to run up the middle last week, and it was fumbles, rather than tackles in the backfield, that generally halted the CHI rushing attack.

Overall, New England appears to have too good an offense not to score at least 20 points. It is hard to see San Diego matching the pace. I think that the best chance for the Chargers is if they get an early lead and goad the Patriots into being overaggressive on both sides of the ball. The home crowd pressure to throw deep to Moss will be there.

But I think that the Patriots are smarter than that, and will patiently run the ball, and trust Brady on third down. Expect New England to win unless the turnover margin is greater than +2 in favour of San Diego.

Posted in Norv Turner, Antonio Gates, Bill Belichick, Shawne Merriman, Denver Broncos, Richard Seymour, Rodney Harrison, NFL Game Previews, Philip Rivers, Drayton Florence, LaDainian Tomlinson, NFL Coaches, Randy Moss, NFL on NBC, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL on television, Analysis, Game, Eric Parker, Philadelphia Eagles, Tom Brady, New England Patriots, Chicago Bears, San Diego Chargers, NFL | No Comments »

Week 2 figures to watch

September 14th, 2007 9:42 am
by Big Dog

Watch out for Adrian Peterson as he takes the field again for the Vikings. His first week performance against Atlanta’s still strong defense was a clear indicator of his potential in the league. The Vikings will be relying on him to increase his workload on the ground, while being a viable receiving option certainly doesn’t hurt one bit.

Shawne Merriman will be looking to make a big impression on Tom Brady as the Chargers and Patriots meet again following last year’s playoffs. There’s plenty for these two top contenders to play for, it’ll just be interesting to see if the entire San Diego roster bring video cameras with them. Also keep an eye out for Bill Belichick pre-game, he’ll probably be looking for someone willing to take a $500,000 bet (Eric Mangini might even be willing to take some of that action).

Posted in Shawne Merriman, Tom Brady, Adrian Peterson, Atlanta Falcons, Eric Mangini, Bill Belichick, New England Patriots, San Diego Chargers, Analysis, Game, Minnesota Vikings, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL | No Comments »