Superbowl XLII - PREVIEW

February 3rd, 2008 5:35 am
by Pro Set

New York Giants vs New England Patriots - Superbowl XLII

Despite the substandard play of Tom Brady in the AFC Championship Game, the Patriots remain clear favourites. The key to the game, when New England has the ball, is whether New York changes its tactics from the Week 17 contest.

In Week 17, the Giants attacked the patriots, and put pressure on Brady. He looked a little unsettled, and generally the tactics of the Giants met with widespread approval. But the seminal moment of Week 17 was the Brady to Moss TD pass when Moss was left single-covered. The playoff opponents that have faced New England clearly determined not to get beaten deep. This policy looked futile as Brady picked Jacksonville apart in the AFC Divisional Playoff. But JAX stuck form to the game plan, and never let the Patriots strike quickly.

San Diego followed this lead, despite the fact that JAX could not force the turnovers. Luck, however, was with SD as Brady was 5% off his game, and with 7 or 8 men in coverage, SD had the men there to swallow three INTs.

So, does New York attack or play coverage? The excellent weather in Arizona tends to suggest that Brady will be comfortable picking apart deep zones. But I think that the Giants must rush four and trust them to deliver. The Patriots offensive line has to have an off day eventually. Since New York has no one who can cover Moss in single coverage, it would be a massive gamble to bring excess rushers on a consistent basis.

For the Giants offense, Eli Manning needs to have his hot streak continued. The accuracy on his throws, the lack of one bounce receptions, and the reliability of Plaxico Burress have to arrive in Arizona. It is obviously well known that Eli Manning has not fared well in his career against the blitz. New England will be tempted to bring relentless pressure. This will test Asante Samuel, who is surely the man to cover Plax when the blitz arrives. He cannot fare worse than Al Harris, who had a nationally televised disaster that will surely be the epitaph to an overrated career.

The Patriots will win, and this author congratulates New England in advance on a perfect season.

Posted in Plaxico Burress, Bill Belichick, NFL Coaches, Asante Samuel, Tom Coughlin, Superbowl XLII, Superbowl, Randy Moss, Tom Brady, Analysis, Game, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, New England Patriots, NY Giants, NFL | No Comments »

Superbowl XLII - Pros and Cons

January 31st, 2008 11:11 pm
by Big Dog

The Superbowl’s always an exciting time of year. It’s the culmination of a long and hard season. It’s one of the greatest sporting spectacles on earth. And yet, if your team didn’t make it, the Superbowl presents a very real conundrum. Who do you cheer for?

This year your choice is between the New England Patriots and the New York Giants. Each of these teams present their own sets of pros and cons when you consider offering your support.

New England Patriots
Pros

Cons

New York Giants
Pros

Cons

Anyway, no matter who you decide to cheer for this weekend, enjoy the game, enjoy the spectacle and enjoy the football.

Posted in Plaxico Burress, NFL Game Previews, Bill Belichick, Tom Coughlin, Superbowl, Superbowl XLII, Laurence Maroney, NFL Coaches, Randy Moss, NFL Players, NFL Franchises/Teams, Game, Eli Manning, NY Giants, Tom Brady, New England Patriots, NFL | No Comments »

Week 14 Analysis: New Orleans @ Atlanta

December 11th, 2007 1:51 am
by Big Dog

I’m not 100% sure what it means when the Monday Night Football team (Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Tony Kornheiser) spend most of the night NOT talking about the game, instead talking non-stop about Michael Vick’s 23 month sentence.

There’s no question that the news about Vick is big, and that it’s directly related to the performance of the Atlanta Falcons this season. That said, there was a game of football going on and while most of the good people of Atlanta chose to stay home, that doesn’t mean this game didn’t have anything riding on it. In particular, this game was a must win for the New Orleans Saints as they struggle to make the playoffs.

Saints QB Drew Brees had another good day, continuing to build on his solid reputation with 28 of 41 for 328 yards, 3 TD. He shared the ball around, his touchdown passes going to three different receivers, and made several good plays, scrambling when necessary and absorbing some good hits along the way. WR David Patten and WR Marques Colston came away with nine receptions each and S Roman Harper returned an interception for a TD. Overall New Orleans looked like a strong team with the right mixture of desperation and determination to make their run into the playoffs and perhaps even go a little further. Head Coach Sean Payton certainly demonstrated his aggressive style on the night and it was absolutely clear that he has this team in the right frame of mind to complete their mission. Watch out for the Saints.

It was also interesting to watch Falcons QB Chris Redman starting and running the game tonight, as Atlanta continue to experiment with their roster. Redman had a good night completing 23 of 40 for 298 yards, 2 TD and an INT. WR Michael Jenkins was his favourite target of the night with 9 receptions for 83 yards and a TD. RB Jerious Norwood had a lacklustre night with 6 carries for 21 yards. Right now the Falcons are clearly a team holding some genuine talent, but they are struggling to draw together as a team. One can only hope that with Vick’s sentence now handed down, the Falcons can finally and truly put this saga behind them and get on with being a competitive football team. The talent’s there, the team just needs to unite behind a QB and a plan, then the Falcons will get their chance to be great.

Posted in Chris Redman, Tony Kornheiser, Atlanta Falcons, Ron Jaworski, Michael Vick, Sean Payton, Jerious Norwood, Michael Jenkins, Roman Harper, David Patten, Mike Tirico, Monday Night Football, NFL on television, ESPN, Analysis, Game, New Orleans Saints, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Coaches, Drew Brees, NFL Players, NFL | No Comments »

Week 13 Analysis: Cincinatti @ Pittsburgh

December 3rd, 2007 1:20 am
by Big Dog

It was another wet night at Heinz Field as the Pittsburgh Steelers played host to the Cincinnati Bengals. Even with the rain, the field was in much better condition than last Monday night, and this made for a much more eventful game.

In the early stages Cincinnati QB Carson Palmer and the Bengals looked to be in excellent form, despite the conditions, as they moved down the field smoothly and opened the scoring for both teams with a touchdown. While Palmer looked like he was handling the wet comfortably, Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger looked anything but comfortable. The ball was coming out of his hand in an awkward fashion with most of his early passes being high and wobbly.

The momentum shifted early in the second quarter as Roethlisberger found his rhythm and got into the flow of the game, leading the Steelers on a 67 yard drive that ended in a six yard dive from Roethlisberger to score Pittsburgh’s first TD. From there on Pittsburgh dominated the scoring, piling on a further 17 points that included two TD passes to FL Hines Ward that saw Ward passing the Steelers’ All Time team record for TD receptions.

In the end, the Steelers held on for the win, although it looked more comfortable than it was. Turnovers were a big part of the story and the only statistic where the Bengals performed better than the Steelers. Officially the Bengals had one turnover to the Steelers’ four. This figure doesn’t include the fumble by Steelers’ HB Willie Parker that was overturned after a challenge by Head Coach Mike Tomlin. It also doesn’t include the fumble by Parker that was ruled down by contact on the field and upheld after the challenge by Bengals Head Coach Marvin Lewis. It also doesn’t count the safety scored by the Bengals that was reversed by an illegal holding penalty and it doesn’t include the turnover on downs that the Bengals would have won late in the game which was also reversed by a penalty call.

For the Bengals the biggest issue is clearly team discipline, but we’ve all known that for years. Either Cincinnati will find a way to deal with this problem, or all their players will retire. It’s just a question of which happens first.

For the Steelers, Parker’s fumbling troubles have got to be a major concern coming into the business end of the season and given the current injury concerns surrounding Parker’s replacement HB Najeh Davenport. The question is, did Parker just have a bad night in bad conditions? Or is there a bigger problem? This is bound to be something that the New England Patriots will test next week.

Posted in Pittsburgh Steelers, Ben Roethlisberger, Cincinnati Bengals, Willie Parker, Hines Ward, Marvin Lewis, Mike Tomlin, Carson Palmer, NFL Coaches, NFL on television, Analysis, Game, NFL on NBC, NFL Franchises/Teams, New England Patriots, NFL Players, NFL | No Comments »

Week 13 Analysis: NYG @ Chicago

December 2nd, 2007 9:08 pm
by Big Dog

There’s no pretty way to say this. The Ney York Giants and their battling QB Eli Manning got lucky today. In a game where Manning was continuing his recent and struggling form with two interceptions and a lost fumble, he managed an unexpected fourth quarter comeback that will finally give fans and media in New York something positive to talk about. The best feature of Manning’s game was that he didn’t allow the pressure to get to him. He stayed focused on his job and waited for things to start working. This is a character trait that I’ve long admired in Eli, he copes very well with the additional scrutiny and pressure that is applied to him as a result of his big brother’s stellar career. Eli plays his game and he clearly has the mental toughness to win.

The conditions at Chicago’s Soldier Field were troublesome for both teams. With heavy rain in the morning, and swirling winds throughout the game, it was a difficult game for anyone to get going in the air. Even so, Chicago QB Rex Grossman put in an excellent effort in difficult conditions to complete 25 of 46 passes for 296 yards and a TD. That completion number looks low, but Grossman was especially impressive with his clock management and decision making within the final two minutes of both halves. Good clock management was a real feature of his work and he certainly demonstrated that despite his difficulties earlier in the season, this young QB’s still plenty to offer the Bears. The only consistent flaw in his game today was that he kept getting sacked (6 sacks this game) for big losses by dropping back to allow plays to develop. He should have realised earlier that the best way to beat the Giants’ pass rush (which applied no real pressure on the inside) was to step up into the pocket and buy an extra couple of seconds that way. Doing so would also afforded him better vision of the field.

So, in a simple quarterback comparison, Chicago should have won. As we all know there’s a lot more to football than that. I still believe that there are serious questions to be asked, not just of Eli Manning, but the entire Giants offense and especially Head Coach Tom Coughlin. Manning and his key receivers (WR Plaxico Burress, TE Jeremy Shockey and WR Amani Toomer) have being playing together for several years now and it needs to be asked why these guys haven’t built a better playing relationship. To all appearances they get on very well together and when things work, they work really well, but by now I’d be expecting to see these guys have a better feel and knowledge of what each other is doing on the field. That said, it also needs to be asked of Coach Coughlin, when the QB of the team is struggling with an offense that runs a very vertical passing system, why aren’t there more options in the New York playbook? Where are the mid-range passing plays? Where are the options and adjustments in game?

It’s clear that there are fundamental problems with the Giants offense, but I am unconvinced that the problem is with the players. I have a feeling that it might just be that the team doesn’t know what to do with the players they have. Until the Giants resolve these issues, the best they can hope for is these unconvincing and somewhat fortunate victories.

Posted in Plaxico Burress, NFL on FOX, NFL Coaches, Rex Grossman, Jeremy Shockey, Amani Toomer, Tom Coughlin, NY Giants, Chicago Bears, Analysis, Game, NFL on television, NFL Franchises/Teams, Eli Manning, NFL Players, NFL | No Comments »

Week 12 Analysis: Miami @ Pittsburgh

November 27th, 2007 12:46 am
by Big Dog

The truth is that there’s not a lot to say about this game. By far the most dominant player for both teams on offense and defense was the weather. Torrential rain had a huge impact on the field and despite heroic efforts from the ground staff, Heinz Field was a quagmire. That said, this game did provide statisticians and the Miami Dolphins with some interesting opportunities.

Statisticians had fun counting down how many years had passed since a game had gone so long without a score. The Dolphins enjoyed the rare opportunity of being right in this game, scores remaining level at 0-0 until the final 20 seconds of the fourth quarter. While Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger did have a good night (18-21 for 165 yards, INT), the star of the night was K Jeff Reed who, after missing an earlier attempt from the 44, made a 24 yard attempt for the win.

There’s not a lot else to say, except to mention that the Dolphins do appear to have a real project player in QB John Beck (14-23 for 132 yards). Beck showed some real poise in difficult conditions, making some very good decisions. Even so, this is the sixth time this season that the Dolphins have lost by 3 points or less and that stat alone has to be causing some real distress in Miami, especially for Head Coach Cam Cameron.

Posted in Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Cameron, Pittsburgh Steelers, Jeff Reed, John Beck, Monday Night Football, NFL Coaches, Analysis, Game, Miami Dolphins, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL | No Comments »

Week 12 Analysis: Philadelphia @ New England

November 26th, 2007 1:24 am
by Big Dog

God bless Andy Reid and the Philadelphia Eagles. I’ve written previously about how watching the New England Patriots just dominate football is boring. This week the Eagles demonstrated that New England aren’t untouchable.

The Eagles came to play with a clear plan, and for the most part were able to execute it well even though QB Donovan McNabb was out with an ankle injury and backup QB A.J. Feeley(27-42, 345 yards, 3 TDs, 3 INTs) was managing the game. Feeley did a magnificent job and even though the Eagles didn’t come away with the win, due mainly to a pair of interceptions from Feeley, it’s important to remember that for most of the game Feeley had better stats than New England QB Tom Brady 34-54, 380 yards, TD).

For the Eagles’ offense it was clear from early in the game that New England weren’t going to give any room deep or on the outside. This opened up the inside pass every time. In fact, this was a feature topic of conversation for John Madden and Al Michaels mostly because it was absolutely true for the whole of the game. Even when Philadelphia took the lead and New England’s defense was clearly struggling to contain them, the inside pass was always there for Feeley. In addition, Eagles RB Brian Westbrook had his typically solid game, making good, strong runs and critical receptions.

On defense, the Eagles were able to contain Patriots WR Randy Moss(5 receptions for 43 yards) and basically eliminate his impact on the game. This did open the game up for WR Wes Welker who managed an impressive 13 receptions for 149 yards. In truth, if it hadn’t been for Welker’s speed and effective route running, New England wouldn’t have been in this game at all.

The most frustrating aspect of the game for the Eagles were Feeley’s interceptions. The first came on his second play of the game and was returned by CB Asante Samuel for a TD. The Eagles dealt with that setback promptly, with a fantastic drive for their own TD. The second interception came in the late stages of the fourth quarter, as Philadelphia was 3 points down and trying to score for the win. Feeley (against all the experience and success of the game to this point) attempted the long throw to the outside corner of the endzone and once again Samuel took the pick. In the resulting drive, New England ate a lot of the clock and forced Philadelphia to burn their final timeout.

The Eagles got the ball back with 20 seconds on the clock, needing to make about 40 yards to be within FG distance. Once again, Feeley went for the outside throw, clearly trying to preserve time and ignoring the old football adage “take what they give you”. This time Patriots’ S James Sanders came away with the ball and that was the game.

This was one of the genuinely exciting Patriots games of the season and among other things provided an excellent demonstration of why Andy Reid is considered to be one of the best coaches in the league today. The Eagles came so very close to a truly remarkable upset win today, and in so doing, they have provided a blueprint for taking on New England that is bound to haunt the Patriots through the rest of the season.

Posted in John Madden, Andy Reid, NFL Coaches, Brian Westbrook, Al Michaels, Asante Samuel, James Sanders, Wes Welker, A.J. Feeley, Randy Moss, Tom Brady, NFL on television, Analysis, Game, NFL on NBC, NFL Franchises/Teams, New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles, NFL Players, NFL | No Comments »

Week 12 Analysis: Green Bay @ Detroit

November 22nd, 2007 9:53 pm
by Pro Set

After the early success of Detroit on the ground, hopes were raised at Ford Field. Detroit RB Kevin Jones has proven in the past that he is a capable featured back. One could sense the crowd anticipating another miserable NFC domed outing for Green Bay QB Brett Favre.

As the half wore on, however, the shape of the game irreversibly unfolded. Detroit cannot generate enough pressure from its front four to hide its miserable secondary. Losing CB Dre Bly to Denver has weakened an already patchy secondary. DT Shaun Rogers gets all the face time, but too often he lumbers off the field after second down because he is tired from providing the inside run defense as well as the pass rush. With Green Bay passing so much (4 rushes: 31 passes mid third quarter) it was incumbent on Rogers and the DET line to exert pressure. This is meant to be the strong suit of DET coach Rod Marinelli.

The second half was an exhibition. Favre looked completely comfortable. He completed 20 passes straight. He completed every pass that he threw in the third quarter. His first incompletion for the half was when WR Greg Jones could not get a second foot down in the left edge of the DET end-zone. Inevitably, DET eventually blitzed. And the Packers were ready for it. They had the screen pass ready to go and only an ankle grab prevented a huge catch and run. This play call, which had perfectly anticipated the blitz, demonstrated the superiority of the Packers at all levels of this fixture. The fact that DET did not blitz more was ample proof of the lack of confidence that DET has in its secondary to cover man-to-man. The contrast with CB Charles Woodson and CB AL Harris of the Packers was very pronounced.

For Detroit, the late comeback of sorts was rendered pointless when GB escaped a 1^st and 20 without even facing a third down inside the final minutes, with DET within 8 points. The inability of the DET front seven to close running lanes between the tackles denied them any chance of a late tying drive. Indeed, the TD reception from WR Roy Williams that closed the gap was notable for the fact that he never actually grounded his second foot. He rolled off a Packer over the end-line, but the Back Judge was so focussed on whether he maintained possession that the score was given.

Clearly GB looks good. The late rushing bonanza was distorting of the influence that the GB passing attack had on the game. GB travels to Irving, TX, next Thursday night in the NFC game of the season. Please don’t give credit to NFL Network for “selecting” this game. They just got lucky, since the NFL policy is to give teams a week’s rest where possible. So the next Thursday night game was always going to be between two of the teams that played on Thanksgiving.

For Detroit, the two huge home losses of the past five days will crush their season. QB Jon Kitna played well, but, as I have mentioned earlier this season, he needs to shake the ghosts of 1999 where a great start capitulated and Seattle missed the first round bye and lost a home Wild Card playoff. I watched him closely today. He is a man whose confidence is not where it should be. DE Aaron Kampman could tell you more. He was next to Kitna for most of the DET possessions. In a team that has invested so heavily in receivers, Kitna needs to take three steps and release. In his defense, until the Martz retreads of WR Sean McDonald and WR Mike Furrey stop dropping passes, Detroit cannot win against a quality opponent.

Posted in NFL Coaches, Detroit Lions, Jon Kitna, Rod Marinelli, Green Bay Packers, Brett Favre, Game, Analysis, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL | No Comments »

NFL Week 11 Analysis: Tennessee @ Denver

November 20th, 2007 1:04 am
by Big Dog

This was a tough week for the Tennessee Titans, and particularly for their emerging QB Vince Young. Young had a career day passing and was also the Titans’ lead rusher for the day, unfortunately this stellar effort wasn’t enough to bring home the win.

The Denver Broncos were tonight competing to meet theSan Diego Chargers at the top of the division with a 5-5 record. Broncos QB Jay Cutler had a career high 137.0 passer rating for the night and it was certainly deserved as he made several big plays to give Denver an early lead.

The evolving story that is Vince Young continued tonight as he showed considerable poise in the pocket, often holding onto the ball and making crucial passes. For the most part, Young only ran when it was the best option available on the field and managed to turn it into a showcase of how to play the scrambling QB position.

Unfortunately the Titans were let down by several dropped passes and then succumbed to the pressure created by Denver’s mounting lead. That’s not to take anything away from the Broncos, who have been a much more cohesive unit in the last couple of weeks, with players clearly taking more responsibility for the performance of the team as a whole.

The personal highlights of the night came from Denver Head Coach Mike Shanahan with two of his timeout calls. Tonight, the man who gave the NFL the idea for “icing” a kicker called a timeout with 14 seconds left at the end of the 2nd quarter. The ball was snapped and kicked with Tennessee K Rob Bironas missing the 56 yard attempt. Shanahan’s timeout gave Bironas a second chance which was good.

The second point scoring timeout from the Broncos came about halfway through the 3rd quarter. Young was scrambling for the endzone and stretched out, attempting to break the plane with the ball before being forced out of bounds. It wasn’t ruled a touchdown on the field and while the Titans staff were deciding whether to challenge the ruling, the next play was snapped, with Young again scrambling for the endzone in the corner and coming up short. Fortunately for Tennessee Head Coach Jeff Fisher, the Broncos linebackers had called a timeout prior to the snap, which gave him time to challenge the previous play. On review, the call on the field was reversed as Young was ruled to have broken the plane and scored the touchdown prior to being forced out of bounds.

This was an entertaining game of football and shows that Denver have a lot to look forward to if they can carry this momentum into the end of the season. By the same token, the Titans and Vince Young are improving measurably week by week and while this season isn’t likely to be their breakout year, Young is establishing himself as a passer, a leader and a QB, which suggests that Tennessee will be a force to be reckoned with in coming years.

Posted in Tennessee Titans, Mike Shanahan, Vince Young, Jeff Fisher, Rob Bironas, Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos, Monday Night Football, Analysis, Game, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL Coaches, San Diego Chargers, NFL | No Comments »

NFL Week 11 Analysis: New England @ Buffalo

November 19th, 2007 12:36 am
by Big Dog

Look, the truth is that you’re not supposed to say things like this, but I’d be a liar if I didn’t tell you this now. Watching the New England Patriots march unchallenged through their season is boring. It’s just boring.

In case you don’t already know, here’s how most of every game goes: QB Tom Brady to WR Randy Moss, TD. Brady to Moss, TD. Brady to Moss, TD. Brady to Moss, TD.

Over and over again, it’s boring. It’s not that the Buffalo Bills are bad. It’s just that New England hasn’t met a team that’s really challenged them yet. This is scary for a number of reasons. The first of which is that it has everybody talking about a perfect season. The truth is, while that’s more possible from here than it was 11 weeks ago, it’s still a tall order. The next thing is that it’s building this mythology around the Patriots that’s almost as dangerous as their defense.

I think this is why Head Coach Bill Belichick and Brady bring such an obsessive nature to what they do. It’s clear that this attitude has influenced the whole team, which is after all exactly what a good coach should do. These guys are averaging over 40 points per game this season and aren’t looking like they’ll slow down and all they do when they get back to training is look at what they did wrong!

They’re as dominant defensively as they are offensively and the Patriots are committed to this idea of a season so good that it completely washes away that nasty aftertaste of the whole spying controversy. I don’t begrudge this team any of their success, it’s obvious that they’ve worked fanatically hard to achieve it. That said, the scariest question of all that is raised by their complete dominance at the moment is, what will happen when they finally meet a team that can really challenge them?

Sure, sure. You’re already thinking of the Dallas and Indianapolis games, but that’s not my point and it’s not what I asked. The team that’s going to challenge the Patriots this season is going to be the completely unexpected one. That’s the only way to do it. To suddenly be better, play better, do new, interesting and desperate things that nobody sane would try. You need to be a team like the Miami Dolphins with nothing to lose and everything to gain by trying the crazy stuff.

When the Patriots are beating everyone else by huge margins, nobody’s going to blame the Dolphins if they lose big but lose big by trying something different. If and when that finally happens, that’ll be a Patriots game worth watching because there’ll finally be some unpredictability and uncertainty in it.

Until then, Brady to Moss, TD. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Posted in Randy Moss, Tom Brady, NFL Coaches, Buffalo Bills, Bill Belichick, New England Patriots, NFL Players, Analysis, Game, Miami Dolphins, NFL on NBC, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL | No Comments »