Week 14 Analysis: New Orleans @ Atlanta

December 11th, 2007 1:51 am
by Big Dog

I’m not 100% sure what it means when the Monday Night Football team (Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Tony Kornheiser) spend most of the night NOT talking about the game, instead talking non-stop about Michael Vick’s 23 month sentence.

There’s no question that the news about Vick is big, and that it’s directly related to the performance of the Atlanta Falcons this season. That said, there was a game of football going on and while most of the good people of Atlanta chose to stay home, that doesn’t mean this game didn’t have anything riding on it. In particular, this game was a must win for the New Orleans Saints as they struggle to make the playoffs.

Saints QB Drew Brees had another good day, continuing to build on his solid reputation with 28 of 41 for 328 yards, 3 TD. He shared the ball around, his touchdown passes going to three different receivers, and made several good plays, scrambling when necessary and absorbing some good hits along the way. WR David Patten and WR Marques Colston came away with nine receptions each and S Roman Harper returned an interception for a TD. Overall New Orleans looked like a strong team with the right mixture of desperation and determination to make their run into the playoffs and perhaps even go a little further. Head Coach Sean Payton certainly demonstrated his aggressive style on the night and it was absolutely clear that he has this team in the right frame of mind to complete their mission. Watch out for the Saints.

It was also interesting to watch Falcons QB Chris Redman starting and running the game tonight, as Atlanta continue to experiment with their roster. Redman had a good night completing 23 of 40 for 298 yards, 2 TD and an INT. WR Michael Jenkins was his favourite target of the night with 9 receptions for 83 yards and a TD. RB Jerious Norwood had a lacklustre night with 6 carries for 21 yards. Right now the Falcons are clearly a team holding some genuine talent, but they are struggling to draw together as a team. One can only hope that with Vick’s sentence now handed down, the Falcons can finally and truly put this saga behind them and get on with being a competitive football team. The talent’s there, the team just needs to unite behind a QB and a plan, then the Falcons will get their chance to be great.

Posted in Chris Redman, Tony Kornheiser, Atlanta Falcons, Ron Jaworski, Michael Vick, Sean Payton, Jerious Norwood, Michael Jenkins, Roman Harper, David Patten, Mike Tirico, Monday Night Football, NFL on television, ESPN, Analysis, Game, New Orleans Saints, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Coaches, Drew Brees, NFL Players, NFL | No Comments »

Week 13 Analysis: New England @ Baltimore

December 4th, 2007 1:25 am
by Big Dog

First things first, the Baltimore Ravens defense dominated much of this game. On offense, RB Willis McGahee earned his money and then some, as he carried major responsibility for a Ravens strategy that included keeping the New England Patriots offense of the field for as long as possible.

Baltimore led this game from the early stages and were managing to stay in front as the Patriots were at best only able to equalise. Each time they did that the Ravens came back to score with confidence and QB Kyle Boller did an excellent job of making some critical passes in the face of tough pressure from the Patriots pass rush.

The Ravens have been renowned for their defense for years and tonight that squad’s skill and experience showed as they limited the Patriots and managed to apply significant pressure to New EnglandQB Tom Brady, sacking him several times. Importantly, they were twice able to hold the Patriots to field goals and maintain a lead. In the end the Ravens defense still had to spend a lot of time on the field and the toll of their workload was showing in the latter stages of the fourth quarter.

New England’s final drive was what decided the game. The Patriots took possession with a little over three minutes left on the game clock and were moving downfield. The Ravens had held the Patriots to 4th and 1 on the Baltimore 30 with just under two minutes to go. The Ravens sideline called a timeout just before the ball was snapped and as the play was whistled off, the Ravens defense stopped the play for what would have been a turnover on downs if the timeout hadn’t been called.

After the reset, the Ravens again stopped the following play for a turnover on downs, but a flag on the play called a false start on the Patriots offense for 4th and 6. Brady scrambled for the 1st down on the following play.

That series of plays was decisive. After investing nearly 60 full minutes of emotional, mental and physical energy, the Ravens defense just imploded. The rest of the drive was dogged by penalty calls against the Ravens. Every time that the Ravens defense got the upper hand, there was another call that let the Patriots off the hook. The frustration was tangible.

The Patriots snatched the lead with a passing TD to TE Benjamin Watson, that will live in infamy for Baltimore fans as Watson held the ball in the fingertips of both hands for the completion. The play was reviewed by the booth and upheld, on replay it clearly was a caught pass.

Kyle Boller and the Ravens offense made a huge effort to race back down the field in the final minute and try to either get into field goal range to tie the game or make the long play for a TD and win. The final play of the game was an awe-inspiring 52 yard shot from Boller to WR Mark Clayton who was on the 2 yard line and unable to make it to the endzone.

In the end, Baltimore’s troubled season continued and the pressures within the team once again boiled over. On the other hand, the Patriots stayed cool and committed to the end, making the plays when the plays needed to be made. This is two weeks in a row that the Patriots have been tested and both times they have passed. The Patriots aren’t without their weaknesses, but nobody has yet been able to make New England’s weaknesses overcome their strengths.

Posted in Baltimore Ravens, Monday Night Football, Willis McGahee, Kyle Boller, Mark Clayton, Benjamin Watson, Tom Brady, New England Patriots, Analysis, Game, NFL on television, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL | No Comments »

Week 12 Analysis: Miami @ Pittsburgh

November 27th, 2007 12:46 am
by Big Dog

The truth is that there’s not a lot to say about this game. By far the most dominant player for both teams on offense and defense was the weather. Torrential rain had a huge impact on the field and despite heroic efforts from the ground staff, Heinz Field was a quagmire. That said, this game did provide statisticians and the Miami Dolphins with some interesting opportunities.

Statisticians had fun counting down how many years had passed since a game had gone so long without a score. The Dolphins enjoyed the rare opportunity of being right in this game, scores remaining level at 0-0 until the final 20 seconds of the fourth quarter. While Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger did have a good night (18-21 for 165 yards, INT), the star of the night was K Jeff Reed who, after missing an earlier attempt from the 44, made a 24 yard attempt for the win.

There’s not a lot else to say, except to mention that the Dolphins do appear to have a real project player in QB John Beck (14-23 for 132 yards). Beck showed some real poise in difficult conditions, making some very good decisions. Even so, this is the sixth time this season that the Dolphins have lost by 3 points or less and that stat alone has to be causing some real distress in Miami, especially for Head Coach Cam Cameron.

Posted in Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Cameron, Pittsburgh Steelers, Jeff Reed, John Beck, Monday Night Football, NFL Coaches, Analysis, Game, Miami Dolphins, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL | No Comments »

NFL Week 11 Analysis: Tennessee @ Denver

November 20th, 2007 1:04 am
by Big Dog

This was a tough week for the Tennessee Titans, and particularly for their emerging QB Vince Young. Young had a career day passing and was also the Titans’ lead rusher for the day, unfortunately this stellar effort wasn’t enough to bring home the win.

The Denver Broncos were tonight competing to meet theSan Diego Chargers at the top of the division with a 5-5 record. Broncos QB Jay Cutler had a career high 137.0 passer rating for the night and it was certainly deserved as he made several big plays to give Denver an early lead.

The evolving story that is Vince Young continued tonight as he showed considerable poise in the pocket, often holding onto the ball and making crucial passes. For the most part, Young only ran when it was the best option available on the field and managed to turn it into a showcase of how to play the scrambling QB position.

Unfortunately the Titans were let down by several dropped passes and then succumbed to the pressure created by Denver’s mounting lead. That’s not to take anything away from the Broncos, who have been a much more cohesive unit in the last couple of weeks, with players clearly taking more responsibility for the performance of the team as a whole.

The personal highlights of the night came from Denver Head Coach Mike Shanahan with two of his timeout calls. Tonight, the man who gave the NFL the idea for “icing” a kicker called a timeout with 14 seconds left at the end of the 2nd quarter. The ball was snapped and kicked with Tennessee K Rob Bironas missing the 56 yard attempt. Shanahan’s timeout gave Bironas a second chance which was good.

The second point scoring timeout from the Broncos came about halfway through the 3rd quarter. Young was scrambling for the endzone and stretched out, attempting to break the plane with the ball before being forced out of bounds. It wasn’t ruled a touchdown on the field and while the Titans staff were deciding whether to challenge the ruling, the next play was snapped, with Young again scrambling for the endzone in the corner and coming up short. Fortunately for Tennessee Head Coach Jeff Fisher, the Broncos linebackers had called a timeout prior to the snap, which gave him time to challenge the previous play. On review, the call on the field was reversed as Young was ruled to have broken the plane and scored the touchdown prior to being forced out of bounds.

This was an entertaining game of football and shows that Denver have a lot to look forward to if they can carry this momentum into the end of the season. By the same token, the Titans and Vince Young are improving measurably week by week and while this season isn’t likely to be their breakout year, Young is establishing himself as a passer, a leader and a QB, which suggests that Tennessee will be a force to be reckoned with in coming years.

Posted in Tennessee Titans, Mike Shanahan, Vince Young, Jeff Fisher, Rob Bironas, Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos, Monday Night Football, Analysis, Game, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL Coaches, San Diego Chargers, NFL | No Comments »

NFL Week 6 Monday Night Football

October 15th, 2007 9:24 pm
by Pro Set

New York Giants 21-10 Atlanta Falcons Half Time

Second Quarter thoughts 

It took three plays for the Manning mistake to come. He held the ball too long and did not step up on the 3^rd & 11 passing play. 

And the Falcons could not take advantage. ATL K Morten Andersen missed a 48 yard FG attempt to cap a 4 play (-2 yards) drive. 

In a well-predicted read of the square-in, ATL picked off Manning for the second big mistake inside the two minute warning, blowing a real chance to extend the NYG lead.

Ron Jaworski predicted this in an example of why football men always need to be given time in the booth to explain what they know. If this game blows out in the second half, get ready for the Suzy Kolber human-interest-story-a-thon to begin.

Back to the game, Manning is improving, but still does not seem able to play 60 Mins mistake free football.

New York Giants 14-10 Atlanta Falcons End of First Quarter

First Quarter thoughts

I have previously spoken about how the Giants hide their defensive deficiencies with blitzing. Tonight Atlanta has already busted them for one huge rush. Atlanta will need more big plays against the blitz.

The Giants look good with the ball. Eli Manning inevitably makes mistakes in games. If the Falcons cannot capitalise on whatever gifts the Giants provide, this one is over.

The Falcons cannot keep up with the Giants in a track meet.

Posted in Atlanta Falcons, Monday Night Football, NY Giants, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL | No Comments »

NFL Week 4 Instant Analysis: New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

October 2nd, 2007 8:09 pm
by Pro Set

New England 34-13 Cincinnati

Cincinnati fell to 1-3 because the Bengals defense could not pressure the passer. It did not help that the only CIN TD drive came when a turnover gave a short field to the Bengals.

When Cincinnati had possession, there were promising signs, but the Bengals were unable to convert drives into scoring opportunities. On the ground, RB Kenny Watson (13 rush; 55 yards) made some nice plays with RB Rudi Johnson injured. Watson, however, was unable to rush for enough early down yardage to allow QB Carson Palmer, 21-35 (234; TD; 2 INT) to test the New England secondary in play action. As CIN fell behind by two scores, the rushing game became more and more irrelevant.

The CIN passing attack was throttled early on as the Bengals favoured the ground attack. I though the Bengals game plan did not deserve the criticism that it received from the announcing booth. The plan was clearly one of keeping the game close and seeing how effective the running attack could be. And it almost worked. The score, remember, was NE 17-7 CIN at the two minute warning of the first half, with CIN in possession and in scoring range. The drive was fruitless as Palmer threw an INT. It was surprising that the MNF announcers even noticed the INT, as they were so focussed on the great story line of how the Bengals only had two fit linebackers.

In the end, with CIN unable to draw within one score, the pressure rested completely upon the passing game. With the heat on, I thought that the Bengals receivers dropped too many passes (albeit difficult ones). I also felt that Palmer was under perceived pressure from the NE pass rush. It was clear that Palmer was determined to get the ball out and not be sacked. In the circumstances, I thought that he threw more catchable balls than his number suggested. Indicative of the night experienced by the CIN receivers was the first INT thrown by Palmer when WR Chad Johnson (3 rec; 53 yards) ran a streak and Palmer threw for the square in route.

When New England had the ball, the attack was clinical. On the ground, RB Sammy Morris (21 rush; 117 yards; TD) did what was required. The Bengals were unable to stop the run with their front seven. It’s interesting to note that the only real time that the Bengals created real down-and-distance pressure on the Patriots, they forced a turnover. This was a 3^rd & 23 at NE 14 early in the 2^nd quarter. QB Tom Brady (25-32; 231; 3 TD; INT) forced the pass into bracket coverage.

Overall, the aerial attack of NE was too accurate and the pass protection was too good. Brady is just so good at stepping up whilst keeping his eyes downfield. In my mind, the only worthwhile pressure must be straight up the middle. It will take a good team playing near-flawless football to beat the Patriots on current form.

Posted in Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals, Week 4 Instant Analysis, Sammy Morris, Kenny Watson, Carson Palmer, Monday Night Football, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, New England Patriots, Tom Brady, Analysis | No Comments »

NFL Week 4 Featured Preview: New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

October 1st, 2007 5:07 am
by Pro Set

New England (3-0) @ Cincinnati (1-2) Monday Night Football 8:30pm ET on ESPN

Let’s hope that the Cincinnati defense is ready for some football as the Bengals host their second MNF fixture of the season. New England comes to town undefeated and with more weaponry than most third world armies.

There is really only one issue of note regarding this fixture: how the Bengals will attempt to stop the Patriots. The Bengals, remember, gave up 56 points to the Cleveland Browns in Week 2 at Cleveland.

Cincinnati

When the Bengals have the ball, they need to keep it for as long as possible, whilst scoring points. Whilst this sounds counter-intuitive, the simple fact is that the CIN defense is not good enough to stop the Patriots. So the CIN offense must stop the NE offense from even entering the arena as well as scoring. The Bengals running game must be good enough to prevent the NE defense from launching a full scale assault on CIN QB Carson Palmer. Expect the Patriots to put real pressure on early downs in an effort to set up favourable pass rush situations.

In the aerial game, this is a massive chance for Carson Palmer to demonstrate that he is truly an elite NFL QB. I think that he is close, but not quite there yet. Saints QB Drew Brees had a shocker under pressure last week on the MNF stage. Palmer will need to be decisive in his pre-snap reads. I think that he needs to establish his own game with some lasers early on slants and square in routes. Only then can he exploit the hawkish-ness of CB Asante Samuel and others by hitting the NE secondary on double moves. It’s time for WR Chad Johnson to let his football skills do the talking on national television. He has no excuses.

New England

The issue for NE is how patient the team ought to be. I would like to see the Patriots take over the game early and bury the Bengals. This will require good performances on the ground and in the air. RB Laurence Maroney should have a good night against a team that tackles poorly, with too great an emphasis on stripping the ball. Whilst the returns can be spectacular, such as the four fumbles recovered in Week 1 hosting BAL, it means that the Bengals have no margin for error. The Patriots should be able to construct a dominant running game with good second level blocking. Maroney has been serviceable without showing the level of play required to beat playoff defenses. When you play for the Patriots, it will often be in conditions not suitable for passing. Opponents need to respect the NE rushing attack. If NE can’t run on the Bengals, it might indicate the first real weakness in the 2007 Patriots.

Even if the Bengals can stop the NE running game, the porous CIN secondary will struggle against WR Randy Moss. Let’s not waste space by discussing how to cover Moss. It cannot be done for 60 minutes if Moss is up for the game. Prevention is better than cure. The front four of the Bengals simply has to find a way to get quick and multifaceted pressure on QB Tom Brady. So, even if CIN DE Justin Smith has the kind of performance that a former top-ten overall pick might be expected to have, Brady will step up into the pocket and find the target. It will need to be a combination of central pressure and edge rush to upset Brady.

Conclusion

It’s been a weekend of upsets so far. Cincinnati will need to light up the Patriots and score 30 points to win. I am really looking forward to see how Carson Palmer deals with the pre-snap movement of NE. I am also really looking forward simply to watching the Patriots in all facets of the game. And I expect them to win.

Prediction: New England

Posted in Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals, NFL Game Previews, Justin Smith, Asante Samuel, Carson Palmer, Monday Night Football, Game, NFL Franchises/Teams, New England Patriots, Tom Brady, NFL | No Comments »

Week 4 Previews and Fantasy

September 29th, 2007 1:22 pm
by NFL Freak

It’s another big week in football with some key conference matchups.

• To read Pro Set’s preview of Seattle @ San Francisco, click here.
• To read the Philadelphia @ NY Giants preview, click here.

In other news:

• For the last word in Fantasy Football, check out Big Dog’s Love ‘em and Leave ‘em list.
• For the week 4 TV schedule, click here.
• For the inside track on Pro Set’s Best Bets, click here.

Posted in NY Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, Monday Night Football, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, NFL on FOX, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL on Sky Sports, ESPN, Game, NFL on television, NFL schedule, NFL on NBC, NFL | No Comments »

NFL Week 3 Instant Analysis: Tennessee Titans @ New Orleans Saints

September 26th, 2007 8:44 am
by Pro Set

Tennessee 31-14 New Orleans

Tennessee improved to 2-1 (2-0 on the road) with a great win at New Orleans (0-3). Let’s reflect on how the game was won. I’ll make sure that I don’t start my analysis with as bad a mistake as Mike (The Choirboy) Tirico. First New Orleans offensive play, Tirico calls a RB Reggie Bush carry as a “reverse”, when it was clear to any literate viewer that an end-around had occurred. Tirico is as tiresome as a teacher who preaches morals all day but is actually employed to educate you about the local Vice Squad.

When Tennessee had the ball, the running back combination of RB LenDale White and RB Chris Brown had seemingly poor numbers (combined 28 carries for 88 yards). What those numbers do not show is that there were hardly any rushes for negative yardage. Tennessee rushed 7 times for a first down. I wrote in the preview that Chris Brown had to be productive on early downs. He did just enough. This allowed QB Vince Young, 14-22 (164; 2 TD; INT) to be dynamic and unpredictable. The true effect of the TEN rush attack was seen in the final quarter when Vince Young (5 carries for 22 yards) rushed 10 yards for a first down on a simple bootleg. New Orleans feared the running backs and crashed down inside.

In the aerial game, Vince Young was solid but not spectacular. I think that the Titans will really miss WR Drew Bennett (now with St Louis). I also think that a mobile QB needs good TE play to block and then release. But I digress. What impressed me the most about Young was the variation in his throws. He hit the central deep in laser beam for the first TEN TD. He was also able to check the ball off without putting too much zip on the ball. The fact that he inspires belief and energy in the team is obvious. Expect Tennessee to have a winning record.

When New Orleans had the ball, the Tennessee front four was superb. It was really pleasing to see two guys in particular have great nights.

DT Albert Haynesworth first came to my attention when he gave away a critical fourth quarter penalty in a 2002 season divisional playoff vs Pittsburgh. That has been my defining recollection of him until tonight. He was a dominant inside force. Big enough to stop the run, but quick enough to put pressure on the pocket and prevent the passer from stepping into his throws.

DE Kyle Van Den Bosch first came to my attention in an old NFC East game at Philadelphia. He had a great motor and the ability to disrupt the pass play whilst being blocked past the QB. This requires great timing, strength and plain football instinct. Between them, Haynesworth and Van Den Bosch are anchoring a very handy TEN front four.

As for the Saints, Drew Brees went 29-45 (225; 0 TD; 4 INT). He was forcing passes all night. For mine, the worst INT was the first. I was disappointed that Ron Jaworski did not demand that more attention be paid to that throw. We saw a great shot from behind Brees that demonstrated that TEN had coverage all around the intended receiver. I wrote in the preview that Brees had to dominate. He tried and failed, which is a real concern. When he did his trademarked look off (3^rd & 5 in TEN territory with 1:55 left in the first half) Van Den Bosch disrupted the play before Brees could attack the middle as intended.

On the ground, the Saints were tepid. The injury to RB Deuce McAllister affected the variety of their running game. The Saints are clearly reticent to slam RB Reggie Bush between the tackles. And to be fair TEN dominated inside. But it does mean that Brees feels pressured to manufacture pass plays that are low percentage. For me, the Saints have to get back to basics. I would like to see them simply set themselves a goal next week of zero turnovers. The Saints are worrying about results, not processes. Look after the ball, hit the first gap, catch the pass, and the first downs, and, hence, scoring opportunities will look after themselves. I’m sure the Saints defense would support this.

Posted in Vince Young, Reggie Bush, Week 3 Instant Analysis, Chris Brown, Kyle Van Den Bosch, LenDale White, Albert Haynesworth, Tennessee Titans, Ron Jaworski, New Orleans Saints, Analysis, Game, NFL Franchises/Teams, Drew Brees, Mike Tirico, Monday Night Football, NFL | No Comments »

NFL Week 3 Featured Preview: Tennessee Titans @ New Orleans Saints

September 24th, 2007 5:56 am
by Pro Set

Tennessee (1-1) at New Orleans (0-2) Monday Night Football; 8:30pm ET on ESPN

This game is far more important for New Orleans. For Tennessee, a road non-conference loss will not ruin their season. Regarding the Saints, an 0-3 start will ruin their season.

Unless the Saints can absolutely destroy the Titans with their rushing attack, this is the time for QB Drew Brees to take over and dominate this contest. RB Reggie Bush needs to hit the first hole hard and not risk negative plays. RB Deuce McAllister needs to be money on short yardage. When the Saints are throwing, expect Brees to try his favorite trick of looking off the safeties to the sideline before hitting the seam passes. If Brees becomes impatient and tries to force the ball, Tennessee could be in business.

The key for Tennessee will be to frustrate the New Orleans offense. In QB Vince Young, the Titans have a weapon that can be critical in the time of possession game. If the Titans can keep it to 3^rd & 5 or better, the running power of Vince Young can move the chains and frustrate the Saints. So the key here is for RB Chris Brown to be productive on early downs. New Orleans, however, plays in the NFC South and should have plays ready that were designed to corral former Atlanta QB Michael Vick.

I think that the pressure will get to the Saints and that the Titans can win this game. Having said that, I thought that Atlanta would beat New Orleans in Week 3 of last season, when the Saints played like, well, semi-divine beings in manhandling the Falcons.

Anyway, enjoy the battle of the pocket passer (Brees) versus the new-age hybrid QB (Young). This is the first prime-time exposure for Young, and I expect him to handle the spotlight well. Unless there are special teams meltdowns, this should stay close.

Posted in Reggie Bush, Tennessee Titans, Deuce McAllister, Vince Young, Chris Brown, NFL Game Previews, Monday Night Football, Analysis, Game, New Orleans Saints, NFL Franchises/Teams, Drew Brees, NFL | No Comments »