NFLGA Week 7 Sunday Night Football Preview Arizona @ NY Giants

October 25th, 2009 7:02 pm
by Big Dog

Arizona is coming off an impressive win at Seattle. This was set up by a much improved QB Kurt Warner and great hands by the WRs. On the opening drive Arizona faced a succession of third downs and made plays through accurate passing and clean catches. The key, however, was that Warner got the ball out of his hands. Arizona will need positive first down plays. On third and long Warner always holds on waiting for receivers to uncover. Given the problems faced by the Giants last week at the Superdome, if the Giants cannot generate a pass rush they will get shredded.

QB Eli Manning and his offense will need fast start. Look for New York to work out of play action early, before establishing the run. The Cardinals, despite a better effort last Sunday, have struggled with basic defense this season. It has been big plays, rather than consistent pressure, chasing, covering and tackling, that has got the Cardinals off the field. The Giants will back themselves to drag SS Adrian Wilson up to the line to assist the suspect Cardinals run defense, and then hit the big play over the top. If the Cardinals double the wideouts, look for TE Kevin Boss to eat up the intermediate passing game.

Posted in Analysis, Arizona Cardinals, Game, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NY Giants | No Comments »

NFL Week 7 Best Bets

October 24th, 2009 10:43 pm
by Pro Set

After enjoying my own bye weeks, it’s time to earn some money for the next vacation.

Check out my bets and remember that scores traditionally begin to tighten up during the middle of the season. Although there appearss to have been a lot of large covers this season by favourites, last week (eg OAK) saw the end of the early season blowouts.

If Arizona is less than 21 points down after one quarter on Sunday night, the Cardinals will begin to erase last year’s East Coast horror sequence (@ NYJ; @ PHI; @ NE).

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New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins Monday Night Football Week 5 Preview

October 12th, 2009 8:38 am
by Big Dog

The Jets picked up their first loss of the season last week and the Dolphins finally proved that they could win. Who will gain the upper hand in week 5? Let’s take a closer look at the teams and find out.

New York Jets

Coach Rex Ryan and his 4th ranked defense played a great game last week, but in the end it was some vital errors from rookie QB Mark Sanchez that proved decisive. What will really prove Sanchez’s status will be if he can bounce back this week with a performance that makes a statement. His coach certainly believes that it’s a possibility. The other interesting element will be the addition of Braylon Edwards to the team. The Jets have paid heftily to secure the trade, but if Sanchez and Edwards connect then this could be the final piece of the puzzle that makes the Jets into a real contender. Of course the Jets defense will need to continue dominating at the line, and will definitely need to contain the Dolphins’ wild run if they want to bounce back from last week. Expect the return of Calvin Pace to make bring a real boost to the intensity of this defense.

Miami Dolphins

Despite my initial doubts, it appears that the wildcat is working for the Dolphins. At least if you measure success in terms of yards gained. The team’s averaging 180+ yards on the ground per game, but have still only managed to win one of their first four outings. Chad Pennington is now out for the season and while the Fins’ one win came with Chad Henne behind centre, he was hardly an inspirational quarterback. And to be fair, you have to expect that it will take the guy a little time to settle into the starting position. The big question for the Dolphins is if they can turn their yardage on the ground into points on the board. That will be a tough ask against a newly reinforced Baltimore Jets defense. Right now there are big questions over the Dolphins and a shortage of clear answers.

Prediction

It’s clear that the battle for dominance on the ground will be decisive in this matchup and based on form so far this season it also seems equally clear that the Jets defense is in a more dominant position than the Dolphins offense. The Dolphins have struggled to convert where it counts, on the scoreboard. I’m predicting a strong Sanchez comeback and a Jets win 27 – 14

Posted in Analysis, Chad Pennington, Game, Miami Dolphins, Monday Night Football, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, NFL schedule, New York Jets, Week 5 Instant Analysis | No Comments »

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos Week 5 Preview

October 11th, 2009 5:40 am
by Pro Set

Dallas gifted a win last week to Denver. Early on, the Cowboys dominated up front. Until the crazy decision to have QB Tony Romo take a seven step drop, the Cowboys were completely in control. Denver will start better against New England. QB Kyle Orton did not convinve me. The TD pass to WR Brandon Marshall should have been easily deflected, but CB Terence Newman leapt with two hands as if to catch. As for the Dallas final drive, Denver gave up yards like a high school team and then simply blitzed nine men at the goal line. That won’t survive 16 games. Denver will be destroyed this week if New England plays cleanly.

New England still needs to run the ball more. Denver is weak inside. In the win over the Ravens, the Patriots should have buried the Ravens earlier. It’s hard to concede a sack / FR TD on first down when running the ball. The attention over the roughing the passer penalties has lessened the focus on the lack of power running from Foxboro. With WR Randy Moss and WR Wes Welker healthier, QB Tom Brady should demolish the Donkeys. On the other side, the interior NE defense has improved since the loss to the Jets. There is a still a question over whether NE can rush the passer adequately without blitzing. This will be tested if the Patriots trail or if the game is close.

Posted in Analysis, Denver Broncos, Game, NFL, New England Patriots | No Comments »

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings – Week 4 Monday Night Football Preview

October 5th, 2009 8:16 am
by Big Dog

Monday Night Football is brewing up a storm tonight as the Vikings play host to the Green Bay Packers. It should be a fierce battle as the Vikings finally get to experience what it feels like to face the Packers with Brett Favre on their side.

Green Bay Packers

With Chad Clifton questionable for the game, and with the Vikings currently sitting as the 4th most aggressive defense in the league, Rodgers is really going to need to step up his game and improve his passing percentage. He’s done well to avoid giving the ball away so far this season, but he has to make some plays if the Packers are to have any hopes of the win here. A lot of defensive attention will be paid by the Packers to Favre, but in all honesty that’s a simple distraction and Mike McCarthy will surely be doing his best to instead try to contain the Vikings running game, while maintaining reasonable coverage. It’s an easier task than it sounds because while the Vikings can definitely run the football, Favre is still playing like he thinks he’s a kid, taking chances and making throws. If the Pack’s want to win this one, they’re going to need to play more like Brett would.

Minnesota Vikings

I’ve heard tell that “Favring” is a new verb, meaning to retire and then comeback, retire and then comeback. While there’s little doubt that Brett Favre has toyed with football fans everywhere in his off-season flip-flopping, there’s also clearly no question that he’s come to Minnesota to really play football. He’s not riding Peterson’s hard running path to glory, instead working the pocket and making plays to ensure that the Vikings really do have a balanced attack. He’s only given away one interception so far this season and the Vikings defense have been crushingly effective. If they can take advantage of key matchups at the line, expect the Vikings pass rush to become intimately familiar with Aaron Rodgers.

Prediction

There’s a lot at stake for both teams in tonight’s game. Pride, divisional standing, history, personal scores – all of these come into play. At the end of the day, right now the Vikings seem to have a more cohesive football team as a whole and better options to take the win at home. I’m going Vikings 24 – 21

Posted in Aaron Rodgers, Adrian Peterson, Analysis, Brett Favre, Game, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Monday Night Football, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, NFL schedule, Week 4 Instant Analysis | 2 Comments »

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots – Week 4 Preview

October 4th, 2009 11:46 am
by Big Dog

In a week when it’s arguable that most games will have relatively foregone conclusions, the Baltimore and New England face-off is an opportunity for some interesting and potentially surprising gameplay.

New England Patriots

As long as Tom Brady can stay upright and throw a football, the Patriots are almost certainly going to be favourites heading into pretty much any game. But as the New York Jets and Rex Ryan proved a couple of weeks ago, the Patriots are very beatable. Especially if you can put Brady under pressure. This has been the key weakness in the Patriots offense for several years now and they’ve really only been getting away with it because of their enduring ability to come through with strong offense when they need it most. If the Patriots O-Line can buy Brady enough time to let his receivers get deep then you have expect that they will be able to outperform the Ravens secondary.

Baltimore Ravens

Given that Coach Ryan made his name at Baltimore, you can expect the Ravens to have learned a lot from what they saw the Jets do. That said, you can also bet that the Patriots learned a hell of a lot from that game as well. In fact, given the identical ahem, similar nature of the Jets and Ravens defense this season, it’s very possible that New York’s success will be to Baltimore’s disadvantage. If the Ravens can manage to get to Brady a few times, rush him and disrupt his rhythm, then the game will be theirs for the taking. If in the attempt they create space for Brady to throw into, then it will be their undoing.

Prediction

The smart money has to be with the Patriots at home against a defense they’ve already seen this season. But that’s why I don’t look after our Best Bets page, I’m not known for sticking with the smart money. I’m calling it for the Ravens 17 – 13.

Posted in Analysis, Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Game, NFL, NFL Betting, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, NFL on television, NFL schedule, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Tom Brady | No Comments »

NFL Game Selections – Week 4 Selections

October 4th, 2009 11:25 am
by Big Dog

Our Week 4 Selections are up and ready for your ridicule. ProSet is determined to redeem himself after a poor showing in the last couple of weeks. Truthfully this isn’t likely to be his week to make up a lot of ground on Big Dog as they’ve seen most of the week the same way. We’ll soon know how right they are.

Posted in Analysis, Game, NFL, NFL Game Previews, NFL on television | No Comments »

NFL 2009 Week 4 Best Bets

October 4th, 2009 7:37 am
by Pro Set

Last week was a 2-2 split. This leaves me hitting .500 which is disappointing at best.

Let’s hope that Week 4 can turn it all around. Only 3 best bets this week, to try to make it easier to get a winning record.

Check out my bets and remember to bet only where it’s legal.

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Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos Week 4 Preview

October 3rd, 2009 10:54 am
by Pro Set

Dallas (2-1) has not travelled to Denver since 1998 meaning that the Cowboys grace Invesco Field for the first time. Denver embarrassed Dallas in their last meeting on Thanksgiving Day no less. This Cowboys team is feeling very little love despite its winning record. QB Tony Romo (57%; 4 TD; 3 INT) needs to throw the ball better. WR Roy Williams (8 rec; 179 yds; 1 TD) needs to gain his quarterback’s confidence.  It was telling that Jason Garrett ordered an endzone fade to TE Martellus Bennett on MNF in the win over Carolina. When that pass is thrown to Williams on a consistent basis, it will signify that he is the #1 WR. On the ground, both RB Marion Barber (QST) and RB Felix Jones (OUT) will contribute little. RB Tashard Choice, however, has shown enough to warrant respect from the Donkeys (a.k.a Broncos defense). It is critical for Dallas that Choice presents a credible ground threat, in order for TE Jason Witten to get free on play action. A credible ground threat will require a solid performance from the Cowboys O-line. Remember to sink a beer when T Flozell Adams executes his mandatory false start.

Denver (3-0) is faring better than expected in the AFC West. It is important to note that Denver, when it matters, has not trailed by more than a score this season. QB Kyle Orton (56%; 3 TD; 0 INT) is not known from dramatic comebacks. RB Correll Buckhalter (31 car; 230 yds) might be averaging over 7 ypc, but Dallas will provide a sterner test. The Cowboys were able to cause significant disruption on 1st down against Carolina. NT Jay Ratliff will look to get inside penetration adn force Denver to run outside. The Denver interior line will need to drive through the point of attack. If Denver gets its guards onto the Dallas linebackers, the game is theirs to control. This will also set up bootleg passing for Orton.  Dallas, overall, should win as long as points off turnovers work in the Cowboys’ favour.

Posted in Analysis, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Game, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Thanksgiving Day Football, NFL on FOX, NFL schedule | No Comments »

BCS Update

October 2nd, 2009 1:46 am
by Pro Set

Even though official BCS rankings only start later in the season, be sure to check for Pro Set’s Top 6 each week on www.nflgameanalysis.com.

This week’s notes:

• UGA coach Mark Richt will be on the hot seat after LSU beats the Dawgs on Saturday (3:30pm on CBS)
• Miaimi (Fla) QB Jacory Harris should lead the Canes to a win over the Sooners (8pm on ABC)
• UF QB Tim Tebow can’t read due to his concussion, so he’s wearing headphones; listening to bible tapes while the Gators enjoy the bye week

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