Week 12 Analysis: Miami @ Pittsburgh

November 27th, 2007 12:46 am
by Big Dog

The truth is that there’s not a lot to say about this game. By far the most dominant player for both teams on offense and defense was the weather. Torrential rain had a huge impact on the field and despite heroic efforts from the ground staff, Heinz Field was a quagmire. That said, this game did provide statisticians and the Miami Dolphins with some interesting opportunities.

Statisticians had fun counting down how many years had passed since a game had gone so long without a score. The Dolphins enjoyed the rare opportunity of being right in this game, scores remaining level at 0-0 until the final 20 seconds of the fourth quarter. While Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger did have a good night (18-21 for 165 yards, INT), the star of the night was K Jeff Reed who, after missing an earlier attempt from the 44, made a 24 yard attempt for the win.

There’s not a lot else to say, except to mention that the Dolphins do appear to have a real project player in QB John Beck (14-23 for 132 yards). Beck showed some real poise in difficult conditions, making some very good decisions. Even so, this is the sixth time this season that the Dolphins have lost by 3 points or less and that stat alone has to be causing some real distress in Miami, especially for Head Coach Cam Cameron.

Posted in Analysis, Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Cameron, Game, Jeff Reed, John Beck, Miami Dolphins, Monday Night Football, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, Pittsburgh Steelers | No Comments »

Week 12 Analysis: Philadelphia @ New England

November 26th, 2007 1:24 am
by Big Dog

God bless Andy Reid and the Philadelphia Eagles. I’ve written previously about how watching the New England Patriots just dominate football is boring. This week the Eagles demonstrated that New England aren’t untouchable.

The Eagles came to play with a clear plan, and for the most part were able to execute it well even though QB Donovan McNabb was out with an ankle injury and backup QB A.J. Feeley(27-42, 345 yards, 3 TDs, 3 INTs) was managing the game. Feeley did a magnificent job and even though the Eagles didn’t come away with the win, due mainly to a pair of interceptions from Feeley, it’s important to remember that for most of the game Feeley had better stats than New England QB Tom Brady 34-54, 380 yards, TD).

For the Eagles’ offense it was clear from early in the game that New England weren’t going to give any room deep or on the outside. This opened up the inside pass every time. In fact, this was a feature topic of conversation for John Madden and Al Michaels mostly because it was absolutely true for the whole of the game. Even when Philadelphia took the lead and New England’s defense was clearly struggling to contain them, the inside pass was always there for Feeley. In addition, Eagles RB Brian Westbrook had his typically solid game, making good, strong runs and critical receptions.

On defense, the Eagles were able to contain Patriots WR Randy Moss(5 receptions for 43 yards) and basically eliminate his impact on the game. This did open the game up for WR Wes Welker who managed an impressive 13 receptions for 149 yards. In truth, if it hadn’t been for Welker’s speed and effective route running, New England wouldn’t have been in this game at all.

The most frustrating aspect of the game for the Eagles were Feeley’s interceptions. The first came on his second play of the game and was returned by CB Asante Samuel for a TD. The Eagles dealt with that setback promptly, with a fantastic drive for their own TD. The second interception came in the late stages of the fourth quarter, as Philadelphia was 3 points down and trying to score for the win. Feeley (against all the experience and success of the game to this point) attempted the long throw to the outside corner of the endzone and once again Samuel took the pick. In the resulting drive, New England ate a lot of the clock and forced Philadelphia to burn their final timeout.

The Eagles got the ball back with 20 seconds on the clock, needing to make about 40 yards to be within FG distance. Once again, Feeley went for the outside throw, clearly trying to preserve time and ignoring the old football adage “take what they give you”. This time Patriots’ S James Sanders came away with the ball and that was the game.

This was one of the genuinely exciting Patriots games of the season and among other things provided an excellent demonstration of why Andy Reid is considered to be one of the best coaches in the league today. The Eagles came so very close to a truly remarkable upset win today, and in so doing, they have provided a blueprint for taking on New England that is bound to haunt the Patriots through the rest of the season.

Posted in A.J. Feeley, Al Michaels, Analysis, Andy Reid, Asante Samuel, Brian Westbrook, Game, James Sanders, John Madden, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL on NBC, NFL on television, New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles, Randy Moss, Tom Brady, Wes Welker | No Comments »

Week 12 Analysis: Indianapolis @ Atlanta

November 23rd, 2007 12:34 am
by Big Dog

For a few, brief minutes at the beginning of this game, I thought that I was going to see something unexpected and unusual enough to make it worth enduring the commentary of Bryant Gumbel. He might be one of the most popular television presenters in America, but I submit to you that the word “genuflect” has no place in football commentary. Gumbel grumbles aside, the Atlanta Falcons offered some genuine excitement in the early stages of their showdown with the Indianapolis Colts as they took a 10-0 lead.

Atlanta QB Joey Harrington was looking like he might have finally found the rhythm he needed with his receivers. The Falcons strung together some good plays and made clear progress on offense. On defense they were able to disrupt the Colts offensive line, LB Michael Boley was a standout with 3 sacks in the first half. The Falcons’ penetration was definitely assisted by the fact that only two of the Indianapolis linemen were starting in their usual position.

That lasted for about as long as it took for Colts QB Peyton Manning to adjust to his reconfigured offensive line and then the Colts turned it on.

In no way was this a breakout game, but it didn’t need to be. The Colts played consistently, and intelligently, making good use of the field and exploiting key matchups effectively. Perhaps the best example of this is that Manning spent the whole night throwing to whoever Falcons CB DeAngelo Hall wasn’t covering. This in turn made it a tough night for rookie CB Chris Houston who must have felt like he’d done something to get on Manning’s bad side, the way he was being picked on. Still, there’s no better way to get experience at the elite level than to have one of the NFL’s elite QBs throw your way pretty much the entire game.

In the end, although the Falcons did have some great moments, this was always the Colts’ game.

Posted in Analysis, Atlanta Falcons, Chris Houston, DeAngelo Hall, Game, Indianapolis Colts, Joey Harrington, Michael Boley, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL on television, Peyton Manning | No Comments »

Week 12 Analysis: New York Jets @ Dallas

November 22nd, 2007 10:29 pm
by Big Dog

First of all, make sure you catch up with Pro Set’s analysis of Green Bay @ Detroit here. It provides great insight into not only what happened in the game today, but also gives you a glimpse of what Green Bay will need to accomplish next week against Dallas.

Which brings us to what Dallas did today. Nobody could reasonably claim to be completely surprised by the dominance of the Cowboys this week, even after the New York Jets managed a surprise victory over Pittsburgh last week.

However, the keen observer won’t be fooled by the blowout indicated by the final score. The truth is that while Dallas QB Tony Romo had a great night and led the Cowboys to a comprehensive win, this game was more about defense than offense. Simply put, both of the Jets’ lines, defensive and offensive, were dominated.

In particular, the inability of the Jets’ O-Line to contain the pass rush meant that Jets’ QB Kellen Clemens spent most of the night trying to get passes away under immense pressure. Pressure led by the ever capable Dallas LB DeMarcus Ware, who broke through on several occasions and disrupted a lot of New York’s passing game. In addition, Dallas’ coverage was just better and was summed up nicely when CB Terence Newman returned an interception 50 yards for a TD late in the 2nd Quarter.

To make matters worse, it’s tough for any team that has to try and contain Romo, WR Terrell Owens and TE Jason Witten. The Jets’ did their best with this task, trying to pay special attention to Owens and Witten in coverage, while applying pressure in the pass rush. They did actually manage to break through and sack Romo three times, but it just wasn’t enough.

It sounds simple, but it’s true, you just can’t win football games if you can’t control the line of scrimmage. The Jets couldn’t, and so they didn’t.

For those who are waiting with great anticipation for the clash between the Cowboys and Packers next week, there are some points to take out of this game. The first of these is that the Cowboys can be disrupted. Owens was much quieter today than usual and clearly the special attention paid to him had an effect. He still took several crucial catches, including a late TD pass, but his overall numbers were much lower.

Secondly, Romo can be disrupted with good pass rushing. The Jets managed to get to him several times and in the end forced the Cowboys to make use of RB Julius Jones and RB Marion Barber to great effect.

All of this gives Green Bay hope for their meeting next week. It won’t be easy by any stretch, but if they can contain Owens and Witten in coverage, their D-Line might be able to drive the pressure needed to get to Romo. If they are successful at that, they’ll then need to do a much better job of containing the Cowboys’ running backs than the Jets did. In the end, Green Bay need to keep their offense on the field as long as possible, the best way to keep Romo, Owens, Witten, Jones and Barber out of the game is simply to leave them on the sidelines.

Posted in Analysis, Dallas Cowboys, DeMarcus Ware, Game, Green Bay Packers, Jason Witten, Julius Jones, Kellen Clemens, Marion Barber, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL on television, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, Terence Newman, Terrell Owens, Tony Romo | No Comments »

Week 12 Analysis: Green Bay @ Detroit

November 22nd, 2007 9:53 pm
by Pro Set

After the early success of Detroit on the ground, hopes were raised at Ford Field. Detroit RB Kevin Jones has proven in the past that he is a capable featured back. One could sense the crowd anticipating another miserable NFC domed outing for Green Bay QB Brett Favre.

As the half wore on, however, the shape of the game irreversibly unfolded. Detroit cannot generate enough pressure from its front four to hide its miserable secondary. Losing CB Dre Bly to Denver has weakened an already patchy secondary. DT Shaun Rogers gets all the face time, but too often he lumbers off the field after second down because he is tired from providing the inside run defense as well as the pass rush. With Green Bay passing so much (4 rushes: 31 passes mid third quarter) it was incumbent on Rogers and the DET line to exert pressure. This is meant to be the strong suit of DET coach Rod Marinelli.

The second half was an exhibition. Favre looked completely comfortable. He completed 20 passes straight. He completed every pass that he threw in the third quarter. His first incompletion for the half was when WR Greg Jones could not get a second foot down in the left edge of the DET end-zone. Inevitably, DET eventually blitzed. And the Packers were ready for it. They had the screen pass ready to go and only an ankle grab prevented a huge catch and run. This play call, which had perfectly anticipated the blitz, demonstrated the superiority of the Packers at all levels of this fixture. The fact that DET did not blitz more was ample proof of the lack of confidence that DET has in its secondary to cover man-to-man. The contrast with CB Charles Woodson and CB AL Harris of the Packers was very pronounced.

For Detroit, the late comeback of sorts was rendered pointless when GB escaped a 1^st and 20 without even facing a third down inside the final minutes, with DET within 8 points. The inability of the DET front seven to close running lanes between the tackles denied them any chance of a late tying drive. Indeed, the TD reception from WR Roy Williams that closed the gap was notable for the fact that he never actually grounded his second foot. He rolled off a Packer over the end-line, but the Back Judge was so focussed on whether he maintained possession that the score was given.

Clearly GB looks good. The late rushing bonanza was distorting of the influence that the GB passing attack had on the game. GB travels to Irving, TX, next Thursday night in the NFC game of the season. Please don’t give credit to NFL Network for “selecting” this game. They just got lucky, since the NFL policy is to give teams a week’s rest where possible. So the next Thursday night game was always going to be between two of the teams that played on Thanksgiving.

For Detroit, the two huge home losses of the past five days will crush their season. QB Jon Kitna played well, but, as I have mentioned earlier this season, he needs to shake the ghosts of 1999 where a great start capitulated and Seattle missed the first round bye and lost a home Wild Card playoff. I watched him closely today. He is a man whose confidence is not where it should be. DE Aaron Kampman could tell you more. He was next to Kitna for most of the DET possessions. In a team that has invested so heavily in receivers, Kitna needs to take three steps and release. In his defense, until the Martz retreads of WR Sean McDonald and WR Mike Furrey stop dropping passes, Detroit cannot win against a quality opponent.

Posted in Analysis, Brett Favre, Detroit Lions, Game, Green Bay Packers, Jon Kitna, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, Rod Marinelli | No Comments »

NFL Week 11 Analysis: Tennessee @ Denver

November 20th, 2007 1:04 am
by Big Dog

This was a tough week for the Tennessee Titans, and particularly for their emerging QB Vince Young. Young had a career day passing and was also the Titans’ lead rusher for the day, unfortunately this stellar effort wasn’t enough to bring home the win.

The Denver Broncos were tonight competing to meet theSan Diego Chargers at the top of the division with a 5-5 record. Broncos QB Jay Cutler had a career high 137.0 passer rating for the night and it was certainly deserved as he made several big plays to give Denver an early lead.

The evolving story that is Vince Young continued tonight as he showed considerable poise in the pocket, often holding onto the ball and making crucial passes. For the most part, Young only ran when it was the best option available on the field and managed to turn it into a showcase of how to play the scrambling QB position.

Unfortunately the Titans were let down by several dropped passes and then succumbed to the pressure created by Denver’s mounting lead. That’s not to take anything away from the Broncos, who have been a much more cohesive unit in the last couple of weeks, with players clearly taking more responsibility for the performance of the team as a whole.

The personal highlights of the night came from Denver Head Coach Mike Shanahan with two of his timeout calls. Tonight, the man who gave the NFL the idea for “icing” a kicker called a timeout with 14 seconds left at the end of the 2nd quarter. The ball was snapped and kicked with Tennessee K Rob Bironas missing the 56 yard attempt. Shanahan’s timeout gave Bironas a second chance which was good.

The second point scoring timeout from the Broncos came about halfway through the 3rd quarter. Young was scrambling for the endzone and stretched out, attempting to break the plane with the ball before being forced out of bounds. It wasn’t ruled a touchdown on the field and while the Titans staff were deciding whether to challenge the ruling, the next play was snapped, with Young again scrambling for the endzone in the corner and coming up short. Fortunately for Tennessee Head Coach Jeff Fisher, the Broncos linebackers had called a timeout prior to the snap, which gave him time to challenge the previous play. On review, the call on the field was reversed as Young was ruled to have broken the plane and scored the touchdown prior to being forced out of bounds.

This was an entertaining game of football and shows that Denver have a lot to look forward to if they can carry this momentum into the end of the season. By the same token, the Titans and Vince Young are improving measurably week by week and while this season isn’t likely to be their breakout year, Young is establishing himself as a passer, a leader and a QB, which suggests that Tennessee will be a force to be reckoned with in coming years.

Posted in Analysis, Denver Broncos, Game, Jay Cutler, Jeff Fisher, Mike Shanahan, Monday Night Football, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, Rob Bironas, San Diego Chargers, Tennessee Titans, Vince Young | No Comments »

NFL Week 11 Analysis: New England @ Buffalo

November 19th, 2007 12:36 am
by Big Dog

Look, the truth is that you’re not supposed to say things like this, but I’d be a liar if I didn’t tell you this now. Watching the New England Patriots march unchallenged through their season is boring. It’s just boring.

In case you don’t already know, here’s how most of every game goes: QB Tom Brady to WR Randy Moss, TD. Brady to Moss, TD. Brady to Moss, TD. Brady to Moss, TD.

Over and over again, it’s boring. It’s not that the Buffalo Bills are bad. It’s just that New England hasn’t met a team that’s really challenged them yet. This is scary for a number of reasons. The first of which is that it has everybody talking about a perfect season. The truth is, while that’s more possible from here than it was 11 weeks ago, it’s still a tall order. The next thing is that it’s building this mythology around the Patriots that’s almost as dangerous as their defense.

I think this is why Head Coach Bill Belichick and Brady bring such an obsessive nature to what they do. It’s clear that this attitude has influenced the whole team, which is after all exactly what a good coach should do. These guys are averaging over 40 points per game this season and aren’t looking like they’ll slow down and all they do when they get back to training is look at what they did wrong!

They’re as dominant defensively as they are offensively and the Patriots are committed to this idea of a season so good that it completely washes away that nasty aftertaste of the whole spying controversy. I don’t begrudge this team any of their success, it’s obvious that they’ve worked fanatically hard to achieve it. That said, the scariest question of all that is raised by their complete dominance at the moment is, what will happen when they finally meet a team that can really challenge them?

Sure, sure. You’re already thinking of the Dallas and Indianapolis games, but that’s not my point and it’s not what I asked. The team that’s going to challenge the Patriots this season is going to be the completely unexpected one. That’s the only way to do it. To suddenly be better, play better, do new, interesting and desperate things that nobody sane would try. You need to be a team like the Miami Dolphins with nothing to lose and everything to gain by trying the crazy stuff.

When the Patriots are beating everyone else by huge margins, nobody’s going to blame the Dolphins if they lose big but lose big by trying something different. If and when that finally happens, that’ll be a Patriots game worth watching because there’ll finally be some unpredictability and uncertainty in it.

Until then, Brady to Moss, TD. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Posted in Analysis, Bill Belichick, Buffalo Bills, Game, Miami Dolphins, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL on NBC, New England Patriots, Randy Moss, Tom Brady | No Comments »

NFL Week 11 Analysis: Washington @ Dallas – Final

November 18th, 2007 9:23 pm
by Big Dog

The second half of this game was every bit exciting and eventful as expected. The early stages of the 3rd quarter were slow to start but things started to turn when Dallas Cowboys Head Coach Wade Phillips successfully challenged an INT by Washington Redskins LB Rocky McIntosh.

On the very next play, the Redskins were called for pass interference which turned it into a 51 yard play for the Cowboys. Dallas QB Tony Romo then completed a 31 yard TD pass to WR Terrell Owens.

That pattern continued for pretty much the rest of the game with Owens receiving all 4 of Romo’s touchdown passes, equalling a Cowboys team record for TD receptions in a game. Owens has also climbed to 3rd all time number of receptions. Romo is additionally on his way to setting a new team record for TD passes in a season.

All of this could lead the casual observer to assume that Dallas had a pretty easy/comfortable time of it, and that would be a mistake. The true story is that while Dallas did come away with the win, they didn’t particularly impress. At the end of the day, they did what everybody expected them to do, win at home. They really only got away with it because Owens managed to make Redskins CB Shawn Springs’ day a living hell.

It almost looked personal in a way. Springs wrestled Owens to the ground on his first reception of the day, and Owens took exception to being manhandled when he’d be forced back far enough that the play should have been called dead. To be fair to Springs, the whistle hadn’t blown and it was his job to keep going until it was blown. No flags on the play, but Owens was visibly emotional for the rest of the game and managed to make big breaks, confuse the Redskins coverage and give Romo enough room to make sure they both had a great day. Springs was meant to be covering TO most of the time, and TO worked hard to make sure he didn’t.

That said, the highlight performance of the game was definitely Washington QB Jason Campbell (33-54, 348yds, 2TD, INT). Campbell showed great patience, presence and poise in the pocket, waiting for plays to develop and executing under intense pressure, particularly from Dallas LB DeMarcus Ware. Campbell was especially good when the Redskins were working their hurry-up offense and seemed more comfortable with the rhythm of that part of the game.

All in all, it was an entertaining and tight game that bodes well for the future of the Redskins. The NFC is now shaping up to be quite a contest with the Green Bay Packers and the Dallas Cowboys now both 9-1 for the season.

Posted in Analysis, DeMarcus Ware, Denver Broncos, Game, Green Bay Packers, Jason Campbell, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL on FOX, NFL on television, Rocky McIntosh, Shawn Springs, Terrell Owens, Tony Romo, Wade Phillips, Washington Redskins | No Comments »

NFL Week 11 Analysis: Washington @ Dallas

November 18th, 2007 6:54 pm
by Big Dog

First half thoughts:

It’s been an interesting first half, with the improving fortunes of QB Jason Campbell helping to cement the Washington Redskins as early leaders. Washington scoring a TD on their first drive with Campbell completing 3 for 3, hitting TE Chris Cooley twice.

The Dallas Cowboys have struggled in the first half, especially with C Andre Gurode struggling to control his shotgun snaps. Once he has hit QB Tony Romo in the helmet (it deflected into the hands of RB Julius Jones, resulting in a loss of 2 and bringing up 4th down). Twice Gurode has snapped the ball clean over Romo’s head, both times Romo’s scrambled to recover the ball and got passes off. The first was an unfortunate INT caused by a deflection out of WR Terrell Owens’ hands. The second time, the ball again bounced well and sat up for Romo, who turned and fired a bullet to Owens for the first down.

Washington finished the half with a fast drive to find field goal range, burning all their timouts and spiking the ball with 4 seconds left on the clock, to set up a 45 yard FG. The half has finished with Washington leading 10-7, a scoreline that is somewhat flattering to the Cowboys.

That said, the second half is traditionally the Cowboys’ half, so we’ll see how they go.

Posted in Analysis, Andre Gurode, Chris Cooley, Dallas Cowboys, Game, Jason Campbell, Julius Jones, NFL, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Players, NFL on FOX, NFL on television, Terrell Owens, Tony Romo, Washington Redskins | No Comments »

NFL Week 10 Featured Preview: Cleveland Browns @ Green Bay Packers

November 11th, 2007 6:53 am
by Big Dog

This season has seen a revival in the fortunes of the Pittsburgh Steelers thanks to the return to form of QB Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers are 6-2 and looking to continue their great run this season. In the meantime, the Cleveland Browns have been a revelation this season, again due to the exceptional work of their standout QB Derek Anderson. This week’s top of the division (AFC North) clash looks to be one of the best matchups of the round.

Cleveland Browns

While QB Derek Anderson has been at the heart of Cleveland’s renewed fortunes this season, he’ll be the first to tell you that football’s a team game. In addition to his good work, he’s had great targets in TE Kellen Winslow and WR Braylon Edwards. Add to this already potent mix an O-Line that’s giving Anderson time to make good decisions and a Coach (Romeo Crennel) who is determined to show that the Browns in Week 10 are a whole different team to the one Pittsburgh played last time, then you’ve got the recipe for a tough match up.

While it’s clear that Cleveland’s got all the potential you could ask for, potential doesn’t win football games. Execution is what counts on the day and Cleveland has every reason to be concerned about their Offense’s execution on game day. Pittsburgh’s defense is legendary and this season the Steeler’s D has given up fewer points than any other. On top of this, their home record is fierce and this is from a defense that is dissatisfied with their performance, claiming that there is a lot of room for improvement. If Anderson and the Browns Offense can get settled and make a good start, then they can make sure they stay right in this contest.

Pittsburgh Steelers

QB Ben Roethlisberger has returned to form and then some this season. He’s currently sitting second in the league with 20 TD passes (behind Tom Brady) and his TD to INT ratio is third in the league (behind Brady and Peyton Manning). Again, Roethlisberger is backed up on the field with excellent receivers and Pittsburgh’s famously solid running game. However, the real story in this matchup is likely to be Pittsburgh’s defense.

The Steelers have traditionally won against the Browns and dominate the points for and against ratio, but this is more about how stingy their D is, than any other factor. This season Pittsburgh has outscored opponents at home 122-26 and have only given up a total of 98 points this season, a league low by 26 points. This is an explosive and committed defensive unit that is anchoring their team’s fight to stay at the top of the division.

Conclusion: If Cleveland is going to have any chance to win they need to take control of the game early. They’re going to need to overcome one of the toughest and best performing defensive units in the game. In short, if Cleveland want the win, they’re going to have to take it because Pittsburgh’s not going to be giving them anything.

Prediction: Pittsburgh

Posted in Analysis, Ben Roethlisberger, Braylon Edwards, Cleveland Browns, Derek Anderson, Game, Kellen Winslow, NFL, NFL Coaches, NFL Franchises/Teams, NFL Game Previews, NFL Players, Pittsburgh Steelers, Romeo Crennel | No Comments »